Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 21.2 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 36,451
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 367
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 78.2 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Biden’s proposed American Jobs Plan and Made in America Tax Plan might provide an additional boost in economic activity at the start, but then weigh on activity for several years before becoming neutral.
- Chart Shows Most Workers Now Make More On Unemployment Than From Their Jobs
- Biden administration considers sharing vaccines with North Korea
- As the virus threatens Southeast Asia, the spread of new variants continues to be a danger everywhere
- In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent – Not the 10% quoted by the CDC.
- Researchers design compounds that prevent SARS-CoV-2 entry in human lung cells
- India’s Goa state to treat Covid-19 patients with drug not recommended by FDA or WHO
- U.S. regulators on Monday expanded the use of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to children as young as 12
- Australian media report on ‘weaponizing’ of SARS renews tensions between Canberra, Beijing
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
‘A huge exaggeration’ – New York Times
When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.
But the number is almost certainly misleading.
It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.
That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.
Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.
This isn’t just a gotcha math issue. It is an example of how the C.D.C. is struggling to communicate effectively, and leaving many people confused about what’s truly risky. C.D.C. officials have placed such a high priority on caution that many Americans are bewildered by the agency’s long list of recommendations. Zeynep Tufekci of the University of North Carolina, writing in The Atlantic, called those recommendations “simultaneously too timid and too complicated.”
They continue to treat outdoor transmission as a major risk. The C.D.C. says that unvaccinated people should wear masks in most outdoor settings and vaccinated people should wear them at “large public venues”; summer camps should require children to wear masks virtually “at all times.”
These recommendations would be more grounded in science if anywhere close to 10 percent of Covid transmission were occurring outdoors. But it is not. There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table.
The Singapore mystery
If you read the academic research that the C.D.C. has cited in defense of the 10 percent benchmark, you will notice something strange. A very large share of supposed cases of outdoor transmission have occurred in a single setting: construction sites in Singapore.In one study, 95 of 10,926 worldwide instances of transmission are classified as outdoors; all 95 are from Singapore construction sites. In another study, four of 103 instances are classified as outdoors; again, all four are from Singapore construction sites.
This obviously doesn’t make much sense. It instead appears to be a misunderstanding that resembles the childhood game of telephone, in which a message gets garbled as it passes from one person to the next.
Boom, Bust, Bang: Economic Implications of the American Jobs and Made in America Tax Plans – The Conference Board
Over the next five years, the administration’s proposed American Jobs Plan and Made in America Tax Plan might provide an additional boost in economic activity at the start, but then weigh on activity for several years before becoming neutral.
The Conference Board’s estimate of the impact on US real GDP growth, using Oxford Economics Global Economic Outlook model simulations, suggests initial positive contributions of about 1.30 percentage points in the first year and then another 0.76 percentage point in the second year. However, fiscal drag kicks in the third year as the growth in federal spending begins to level off and the effects of the corporate tax hike potentially curb business investment. The slower rate of outlays might potentially weigh on the economy for three years before becoming neutral by the sixth year.
For additional insights on this important issue please see our new reports: Boom, Bust, Bang: Economic Implications of the American Jobs and Made in America Tax Plans (link) and A US Infrastructure Plan: Building for the Long Haul (link).
FDA says Pfizer shot can be used in younger teens – USA Today
A COVID-19 vaccine made by Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech, is safe and effective enough to give to younger teens, the Food and Drug Administration said Monday in authorizing its use.
The decision means adolescents ages 12 to 15 could qualify for shots as soon as Thursday, after the Wednesday meeting of an advisory committee to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
President Joe Biden said last week that 20,000 pharmacy locations are ready to begin vaccinating adolescents once the necessary approvals come through.
Shots also will be available soon through pediatricians’ offices, the president said. “And if teens are on the move this summer, they can get their first shot in one place and a second shot elsewhere.”
That may be more complicated in reality. FDA officials speaking late Monday said that while their authorization covers the entire country, each state may have its own rules about who can administer vaccines, so not all pharmacies or vaccination sites available to adults will be open to adolescents.
Older teens, ages 16 and 17, have been allowed to get the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine since it was authorized in December. The other two vaccines authorized for use in the USA, from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, have not been available to minors because studies are still underway.
[editor’s note: First COVID Vax Authorized for Younger Teens]
Chart Shows Most Workers Now Make More On Unemployment Than From Their Jobs – ZeroHedge
Almost a decade ago, we explained that America had become a bizarre kind of welfare state where, due to the premeditated vagaries of the tax code, hard work was punished.
As a reminder, back in 2012, we showed that it was increasingly lucrative – in the form of actual disposable income – to do the bare minimum, receive minimum wage, and collect various welfare entitlements, than to work hard and aspire to a higher socioeconomic status. This was graphically, and very painfully confirmed, in the below chart from Gary Alexander, Secretary of Public Welfare, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (a state best known for its broke capital Harrisburg). As quantified, and explained by Alexander, “the single mom is better off earning a gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045.“
Steve Rattner (best known as Counselor to the Secretary of the Treasury leading the Obama Administration, and the man who singlehandedly overturned bankruptcy law in the Chapter 11 case of General Motors) who today tweeted that “with enhanced benefits, workers (take Pennsylvania, for example) can now make more on unemployment than they did at their jobs.“
Coming from a Democrat, this was the most damning assessment of Biden’s catastrophic fiscal policy to date.
But what was even more shocking is the chart that Rattner tweeted: similar to our chart from 2012, it shows that as of this moment, tens of millions of US workers, in jobs ranging from dishwasher, to hotel clerk, to preschool teacher, to anyone on minimum wage, can now earn more from unemployment than from their regular job.
Why would any rational person work under such generous welfare conditions? Or as the NOA correctly put it, “when people can make more staying at home than going to work, they will stay at home. It’s that simple. We don’t blame them. We fault the system.“
Researchers design compounds that prevent SARS-CoV-2 entry in human lung cells – News-Medical
Researchers have designed a new class of TMPRSS2 inhibitors that have shown broad antiviral activity against coronaviruses, including the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
Although several vaccines have now been approved for combating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there are as yet no safe, targeted and effective drugs available for its treatment. Remdesivir and some other broad-spectrum antivirals have been repurposed (with emergency approval) to treat severe COVID-19, though has shown mixed success as a therapeutic avenue.
One potential target for drug development is viral proteases, like the papain-like protease (PLpro) or the 3C-like protease (3CL or Mpro), as well as other host proteases involved in viral entry and replication.
… When they tested the most potent compounds in inhibiting Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus entry into host cells, they found all inhibited viral entry similar to that of SARS-CoV-2. This suggests the compounds have broad activity against coronaviruses. They confirmed the antiviral activity of the compounds is related to TMPRSS2 using enzyme assays on recombinant TMPRSS2. All the compounds showed high potency, with the number of compounds needed to inhibit viral entry by half (IC50) being less than nanomolar concentration.
The researchers also tested the activity of the most potent compounds against the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in a cellular viability assay using human lung epithelial cells. The compounds were more than 20-fold effect as Remdesivir and showed no cellular toxicity up to 50 μM.
University of Miami researchers report COVID-19 found in penile tissue could contribute to ED – EurekAlert
University of Miami Miller School of Medicine researchers are the first to demonstrate that COVID-19 can be present in the penis tissue long after men recover from the virus.
The widespread blood vessel dysfunction, or endothelial dysfunction, that results from the COVID-19 infection could then contribute to erectile dysfunction, or ED, according to the study recently published in the World Journal of Men’s Health. Endothelial dysfunction is a condition in which the lining of the small blood vessels fails to perform all of its functions normally. As a result, the tissues supplied by those vessels could undergo damage.
“Our research shows that COVID-19 can cause widespread endothelial dysfunction in organ systems beyond the lungs and kidneys. The underlying endothelial dysfunction that happens because of COVID-19 can enter the endothelial cells and affect many organs, including the penis,” said study author Ranjith Ramasamy, M.D., associate professor and director of the Miller School’s Reproductive Urology Program. “In our pilot study, we found that men who previously did not complain of erectile dysfunction developed pretty severe erectile dysfunction after the onset of COVID-19 infection.”
Biden administration considers sharing vaccines with North Korea – The Hill
The Biden administration is considering sharing COVID-19 vaccines with North Korea, unidentified sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
According to the network, a senior administration official said the U.S. would require a system to certify that North Korean citizens are being vaccinated.
“While we are open to considering DPRK requests for humanitarian assistance, these would need to be accompanied by effective monitoring to ensure that it reached the intended beneficiaries,” the official said.
There are no current plans to share vaccines with North Korea, the official added, noting that the nation “has refused to cooperate with COVAX and rejected offers of COVID-19 assistance from [South Korea].”
But current and former officials told the news outlet that sharing vaccines could begin diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang, as they believe North Korea won’t be ready to engage with the U.S. until the pandemic no longer presents a threat.
As the virus threatens Southeast Asia, the spread of new variants continues to be a danger everywhere. – New York Times
Cambodia and Thailand, which had controlled the virus throughout 2020, have recorded sharp increases in infections in recent days. Malaysia announced a new nationwide lockdown on Monday, two days after recording its highest daily case total since January.
Scientists warn that if the virus is allowed to spread unchecked in parts of the world with lower vaccine coverage, dangerous variants will continue to evolve, threatening all countries.
“Globally, we are still in a perilous situation,” Dr. Tedros said. About 772,000 new cases are reported on average each day globally, nearly half in India, where a virus variant, B.1.617, has been spreading.
The W.H.O. deemed B.1.617 “a variant of concern” on Monday. Other variants of concern include B.1.1.7, first identified in Britain and now dominant in the United States, and P.1, originally detected in Brazil.
How to return to work — and keep getting the $300 unemployment benefit – CNBC
- Two programs — partial unemployment insurance and short-time compensation (also known as work sharing) — allow workers to keep getting unemployment benefits.
- They are only available to part-time workers and certain rules may restrict access. Eligible workers would also get a $300 weekly supplement, which some view as a quasi return-to-work bonus.
- The Biden administration highlighted the programs Monday amid spec
India’s Goa state to treat Covid-19 patients with drug not recommended by FDA or WHO – CNN
The Indian state of Goa is to roll out the use of an anti-parasitic drug not recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration or the World Health Organization to treat Covid-19 patients.
While it does not prevent infection, the drug, ivermectin, “helps in reducing the severity of the disease,” according to Goa’s health minister, Vishwajit P. Rane, in a Facebook post on Monday.
The FDA has not authorized the use of ivermectin for treating or preventing Covid-19, stating on its website that “taking large doses of this drug is dangerous and can cause serious harm.”
“Ivermectin tablets are approved at very specific doses for some parasitic worms, and there are topical formulations for head lice and skin conditions like rosacea. Ivermectin is not an anti-viral,” according to the FDA.
“If you have a prescription for ivermectin for an FDA-approved use, get it from a legitimate source and take it exactly as prescribed,” it adds.
The WHO has also raised concerns with its Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan tweeting on Monday, “Safety and efficacy are important when using any drug for a new indication. @WHO recommends against the use of ivermectin for #COVID19 except within clinical trials.”
Australian media report on ‘weaponising’ of SARS renews tensions between Canberra, Beijing – Firstpost
A report in an Australian media outlet alleging that Chinese officials discussed ‘weaponising’ SARS in 2015 has sparked fresh tensions between Beijing and Canberra.
At the centre of the controversy is a purported document obtained by The Australian newspaper titled ‘The Unnatural Origin of SARS and New Species of Man-Made Viruses as Genetic Bioweapons’.
The document shows the Chinese officials describing SARS coronavirus es as heralding a “new era of genetic weapons.”
In response, Chinese propaganda outlet Global Times dismissed the allegation, claiming that the report portrayed a book openly on sale as a ‘leaked’ document and twisted its contents.
This controversy has become the latest flashpoint between the two countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
… According to the report by The Australian, Chinese officials said that bio-weapons could be produced at “0.05 percent of the cost of traditional weapons”
The purported document shows the Chinese officials describing SARS coronavirus es as heralding a “new era of genetic weapons” that can be “artificially manipulated into an emerging human disease virus, then weaponised and unleashed in a way never seen before”.
The authors of the document included Lee Feng, former deputy director of China’s Bureau of Epidemic Prevention, and Xu Dezhong, the former chief of China’s SARS Epidemic Analysis Expert Group, the report alleged.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The World Health Organization is classifying the triple-mutant SARS-CoV-2 variant widely circulating in India as a global “variant of concern.”
After vaccinating some 60% of its population, mostly with China’s Sinopharm, the small island nation of Seychelles is struggling with surging COVID cases.
In Italy, a 23-year-old woman was hospitalized over the weekend after she accidentally received six doses of Pfizer’s vaccine after a healthcare worker filled a syringe with an entire vial; the woman was discharged on Monday.
No New COVID-19 Deaths Reported In Most Of U.K., As Restrictions Set To Ease
Brazilian President Allocates More Than $1 Billion To Produce COVID-19 Vaccines
COVID-19 bodies being disposed of in India rivers as cremation costs rise
Bodies wash up on the banks of India’s holiest river as the virus spreads nationwide.
At least 19 Indian states record Covid-19 positivity rate higher than 20%
Philippines detects first two cases of Indian Covid variant
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
“This Is Not Transitory”: Hyperinflation Fears Are Soaring Across America
Weekly cases have now dropped for a month straight, with last week’s count representing the lowest total since September, and weekly deaths have declined to July levels.
Novavax is unlikely to seek FDA emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine before July.
An FDA advisory committee will convene on June 10 to discuss what data the agency would require to authorize COVID-19 vaccines in kids.
Long COVID may affect people of color to a higher degree than others, researchers and clinicians fear.
Severe COVID-19 linked to genetic clotting predisposition
The travel-related origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.620 strain
Researchers from the US recently determined the sensitivity of the Quidel Sofia SARS Antigen FIA test (Sofia 2). They found a high viral load specimen that tested negative repeatedly while using this antigen test. The study is published on the preprint server, medRxiv*.
T cell populations in nasal mucosa expand after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination
An intranasal COVID-19 vaccine elicits long-lasting immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants in vivo
Natural products a rich source for novel antiviral compounds
8 Out of 10 people hospitalized with COVID-19 develop neurological problems
Uber And Lyft Will Give Free Rides to COVID-19 Vaccination Spots, White House Says
Biden health official says COVID-19 vaccine booster shots will be free
Just 11 percent of unvaccinated Americans say they will definitely get a shot: poll
54% of Americans Without COVID Shot Could Be Convinced to Get It: Poll
Majority of Americans support showing proof of vaccination in certain situations, poll finds
Oregon, Washington COVID Cases Surge
72% of US coronavirus sequences are B.1.1.7 variant first identified in UK, CDC director says
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
March 2021 Headline JOLTS Job Openings At Series High
April 2021 Monthly Budget Review: COVID Response Continues To Cause Significant Deficit Increase
April 2021 Survey Of Consumer Expectations: Inflation Expectations Increase in the Short-Term
Infographic Of The Day: The Recent Explosion In Lumber Prices
April 2021 Small Business Optimism Up In April But Job Openings Remain At Record Highs
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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