Written by Steven Hansen
Week 17 of 2021 shows the same week total rail traffic (from the same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Total rail traffic – which has been in contraction for over one year – is now surging as it is being compared to the pandemic lockdown period one year ago.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
We are now seeing great rail growth as the data is being compared to the coronavirus lockdown period last year.
Total rail traffic has two components – carloads and intermodal (containers or trailers on rail cars). This week again intermodal continued in expansion year-over-year and continues on a strengthening trendline.
Carloads 4-week rolling average is in expansion when compared to the 4-week rolling average one year ago.
Rail is now growing year-over-year.
We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) expanded 32.0 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors improved from +25.3 % to +30.8 %
When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.
The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
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This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] ).
| Percent current rolling average change from the rolling average of one year ago | Trend Direction | |
| 4 week rolling average | +29.1 % | improving |
| 13 week rolling average | +12.3 % | improving |
| 52 week rolling average | -0.3 % | improving |
A summary for this week from the AAR:
U.S. railroads originated 951,840 carloads in April 2021, up 23.7 percent, or 182,060 carloads, from April 2020. U.S. railroads also originated 1,173,952 containers and trailers in April 2021, up 33.8 percent, or 296,758 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in April 2021 were 2,125,792, up 29.1 percent, or 478,818 carloads and intermodal units from April 2020.
In April 2021, 17 of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with April 2020. These included: coal, up 55,929 carloads or 28.7 percent; motor vehicles & parts, up 38,891 carloads or 465.9 percent; and chemicals, up 17,201 carloads or 14.8 percent. Commodities that saw declines in April 2021 from April 2020 included: crushed stone, sand & gravel, down 823 carloads or 1 percent; primary forest products, down 124 carloads or 2.9 percent; and farm products excl. grain, down 74 carloads or 1.9 percent.
“A number of U.S. rail traffic categories have completely recovered ground lost during the pandemic or are very close to doing so,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “For example, April set a new all-time record for intermodal, driven by surging international trade and strong consumer spending. Meanwhile, carloads of grain, food, lumber, paper, scrap metal and several other categories were higher in April 2021 than they were in both April 2020 and in April 2019. Carloads of chemicals and steel in April 2021 were much higher than last year and just shy of April 2019 levels.”
Excluding coal, carloads were up 126,131 carloads, or 21.9 percent, in April 2021 from April 2020. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were up 109,124 carloads, or 22.4 percent.
Total U.S. carload traffic for the first four months of 2021 was 3,862,937 carloads, up 2.8 percent, or 104,793 carloads, from the same period last year; and 4,793,498 intermodal units, up 17.6 percent, or 718,271 containers and trailers, from last year.
Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 17 weeks of 2021 was 8,656,435 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 10.5 percent compared to last year.
Week Ending May 1, 2021
Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 540,667 carloads and intermodal units, up 29.6 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending May 1 were 240,858 carloads, up 27.2 percent compared with the same week in 2020, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 299,809 containers and trailers, up 31.6 percent compared to 2020.
All of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2020. They included coal, up 17,094 carloads, to 62,970; motor vehicles and parts, up 9,364 carloads, to 11,344; and metallic ores and metals, up 7,929 carloads, to 24,462.
The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | +27.2 % | +31.6 % | +29.6 % |
| — Ignoring coal, grain & petroleum | +32.0 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | +2.8 % | +17.6 % | +10.5 % |
[click on the graph below to enlarge]
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