Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 11.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 45,085
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 794
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 74.1 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Moderna CEO expects more Covid variants to emerge in coming months: ‘This virus is not going away’
- CDC Issues Phases 2B and 3 of the Conditional Sailing Order
- Pfizer vaccine highly protective against 2 COVID-19 variants, real-world data shows
- First Detailed Look at COVID Vaccine Skin Reactions
- US backs waiving intellectual property rules on vaccines
- ‘Job Paradox’ Baffles Economists as U.S. Employers See Shortage
- Obesity Is Deadlier in Men With COVID-19 Than in Women
- Aberrant immune features in healthy elderly and male subjects with severe COVID-19 may predate infection
- Russia says one dose of its Sputnik V vaccine protects well enough to skip the second dose
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is improving.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
US backs waiving intellectual property rules on vaccines – AP
The Biden administration on Wednesday joined calls for more sharing of the technology behind COVID-19 vaccines to help speed the end of the pandemic, a shift that puts the U.S. alongside many in the developing world who want rich countries to do more to get doses to the needy.
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced the government’s position, amid World Trade Organization talks about a possible temporary waiver of its protections that would allow more manufacturers to produce the life-saving vaccines.
“The Administration believes strongly in intellectual property protections, but in service of ending this pandemic, supports the waiver of those protections for COVID-19 vaccines,” Tai said in a statement.
She cautioned that it would take time to reach the required global “consensus” to waive the protections under WTO rules, and U.S. officials said it would not have an immediate effect on the global supply of COVID-19 shots.
In a tweet, the director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, John N. Nkengasong, said the Africa CDC welcomed the waiver and called the decision “leadership in action.” He added: “History will remember this decision as a great act of humanity!”
… The WTO’s General Council took up the issue of a temporary waiver for intellectual property protections on COVID-19 vaccines and other tools, which South Africa and India first proposed in October. The idea has gained support among some progressive lawmakers in the West.
More than 100 countries have come out in support of the proposal, and a group of 110 members of Congress — all fellow Democrats of Biden — sent him a letter last month that called on him to support the waiver.
Opponents — especially from industry — say a waiver would be no panacea. They insist that production of coronavirus vaccines is complex and can’t be ramped up by easing intellectual property. They also say lifting protections could hurt future innovation.
Stephen Ubl, president and CEO of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, said the U.S. decision “will sow confusion between public and private partners, further weaken already strained supply chains and foster the proliferation of counterfeit vaccines.”
First Detailed Look at COVID Vaccine Skin Reactions – MedPage
A wide range of skin reactions has occurred following coronavirus vaccination — including some that mimic COVID-19 symptoms — but none proved to be serious, according to initial data from an international registry.
A review of 414 skin reactions associated with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines showed a variety of rashes, eruptions, and injection-site inflammation. Less commonly, patients had episodes of zoster (shingles), herpes simplex flares, and rosacea-like reactions. A few patients developed pernio/chilblains, better known as “COVID toes.” Most of the reactions were mild and resolved on their own. No serious reactions were reported.
The findings came from the COVID-19 Dermatology Registry, a joint effort of the American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) and the International League of Dermatologic Societies. They were discussed during the recent AAD virtual meeting and published simultaneously in the Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology.
“We have been involved with following skin reactions to COVID-19 vaccines, but the paper is pretty novel in that it covers a whole range of reactions that had not been reported from vaccine clinical trials,” registry principal investigator Esther Freeman, MD, PhD, of Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, told MedPage Today. “Understandably, the clinical trials were focused on their major endpoints and didn’t really provide a lot of detail on the skin reactions seen in patients.”
Pfizer vaccine highly protective against 2 COVID-19 variants, real-world data shows – 680News
According to new, real-world data out of Qatar, the study published in the New England Journal of Medicine discovered that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (two shots) was roughly 90 percent effective at preventing infections caused by the B.1.1.7 variant, first discovered in the UK.
The B.1.1.7 strain is the most prevalent VOC in Ontario, with just over 83,000 cases detected up until Wednesday.
The study also found that efficacy dropped, if however insignificantly, to 75 percent against the B.1.351 variant that was first identified in South Africa. In comparison, the province has recorded 326 cases of that particular strain.
One key finding from the study was the level of protection people received after only one shot of Pfizer’s vaccine. It determined that one dose provides only 30 percent protection against the B.1.1.7 variant, falling even lower to 17 percent against South Africa’s strain.
Experts and various studies have concluded that the B.1.351 VOC holds mutations that help it avoid specific antibodies, making it incredibly difficult to identify and has been found as the variant most likely to threaten the efficacy of vaccines.
“It really strongly emphasizes, with the variants, that need for the second dose,” Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, told the Washington Post.
“Which is a message we’ve been delivering, but now we have human clinical data to support that message.”
Country With World’s Highest Vaccination Rate Orders New Lockdown As COVID Cases Surge – ZeroHedge
While most people might guess that Israel or the UK hold the title, the tiny island nation of Seychelles is actually the most vaccinated country on earth, with more than 62% of its adult population already “fully vaccinated”, according to a BBC report.
However, despite the fact that the island nation is closing in on the herd immunity threshold, the country and its public health officials have been forced this week to reimpose restrictions due to a surge in COVID-19 cases.
All schools in the country have been closed and sporting activities cancelled for two weeks in the country, which is spread across an archipelago in the Indian Ocean.
Measures also include a ban on inter-household interaction, some types of in-person gatherings, and the early closure of shops, bars and casinos. Non-essential workers are also being encouraged to work from home, while a 2300 local time curfew has been revived.
There are currently 1.07K active Covid cases in the Seychelles, of which a third have been detected in people given two doses of either AstraZeneca’s or China’s Sinopharm’s vaccine.
It unclear what has triggered the surge in cases but testing has detected the South African variant spreading on the islands. Scientists believe the mutant strain can evade immunity and make jabs up to 30 per cent weaker at preventing infections — but they think Western vaccines should still stop people falling severely ill if they get infected. But because Seychelles is not actively analyzing a large amount of positive tests (something the UK and other countries are doing to monitor the spread of variants) it is difficult to tell exactly which strain has taken hold in the country.
But the country’s close links to South Africa means it is likely the B.1.351 variant could be behind the rise. Seychelles was added to Britain’s travel “red list” in January along with nine southern African countries and Mauritius in a bid to prevent the UK from importing the strain.
CDC Issues Phases 2B and 3 of the Conditional Sailing Order – CDC
Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released guidance for cruise ships to undertake simulated voyages with volunteer passengers as part of its COVID-19 Conditional Sailing Certificate application. With the issuance of these documents, cruise ship operators now have all the necessary requirements and recommendations they need to start simulated voyages before resuming restricted passenger voyages. In addition, this release includes the COVID-19 Conditional Sailing Certificate application, which is the final step before restricted passenger voyages.
CDC released the CSO in October 2020 to prevent the further spread of COVID-19 on cruise ships, from cruise ships into communities, and to protect public health and safety. The order introduced a phased approachpdf icon for the resumption of passenger cruises to mitigate the risk of spreading COVID-19 onboard.
Today’s guidance provides technical instructions for simulated voyages. This includes:
- Eligibility and requirements for conducting a simulated (trial) voyage in preparation for restricted passenger voyages.
- Guidance for inspections of cruise ships conducted by CDC during simulated and restricted passenger voyages.
- Operational procedures to assist cruise ship operators in mitigating the risk of spreading COVID-19, including requirements and recommendations on prevention measures, surveillance for COVID-19 on board, laboratory testing, infection prevention and control, face mask use, social distancing, passenger interactive experiences, and embarkation and disembarkation procedures.
In the final phase of the CSO, cruise ships operators with an approved COVID-19 Conditional Sailing Certificate application will be permitted to sail with passengers following the requirements of the CSO. CDC does not anticipate releasing any additional documents for Phase 4. Instead, CDC will be updating online documents to incorporate changes to quarantine, testing, color status, and lessons learned from simulated voyages.
CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the CSO. This goal aligns with the prospective resumption of passenger operations in the United States by mid-summer, expressed by many major cruise ship operators and travelers.
Since April 12, 2021, CDC and senior leadership from other relevant federal agencies have engaged in twice-weekly meetings with representatives from various cruise lines. The objectives of these meetings have been to engage in dialogue and exchange information with individual cruise line representatives regarding the impact of vaccines and other scientific developments since the CSO was issued. Participants were also given opportunities to ask operational questions about the CSO and published technical instructions.
COVD-19 vaccines play a critical role in the safe resumption of passenger operations, but not all cruise ship operators have announced plans to mandate passenger vaccinations. As more people are fully vaccinated and more drug therapeutics are available, the phased approach allowed CDC to incorporate these advancements into planning for safe resumption of cruise ship travel. CDC recommends that all port personnel and travelers (passengers and crew) get a COVID-19 vaccine when a vaccine is available to them.
CDC acknowledges that it is not possible for cruising to be a zero-risk activity for spread of COVID-19. While cruising will always pose some risk of COVID-19 transmission, CDC is committed to ensuring that cruise ship passenger operations are conducted in a way that protects crew members, passengers, and port personnel, particularly with emerging COVID-19 variants of concern.
[editor’s note: also read CDC Sets Rules for Trial Cruises With Volunteer Passengers]
‘Job Paradox’ Baffles Economists as U.S. Employers See Shortage – Bloomberg
As the U.S. job market comes roaring back, there’s a growing debate about whether there are enough workers to power faster economic growth.
Companies from fast food chains like Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. to chicken producer Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. and MGM Resorts International say they can’t find — or entice — enough workers. In earnings calls and business surveys, executives often blame stimulus checks and generous unemployment benefits for hampering hiring efforts.
But economists and policy makers are unclear about what’s really causing this gap and how long it will last. Hiring remains robust for now, indicating these labor disparities aren’t necessarily a problem. The worry is if labor shortages do persist — especially in the leisure and hospitality industry — that could slow demand and possibly lead to price increases.
Friday’s employment report, which is projected to show the economy added 1 million jobs in April, should offer new insight into this mismatch and whether it’s deterring growth.
“There is definitely a job paradox that’s going on,” said Joe Song, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. It’s difficult to quantify, “but it’s clearly a challenge that’s weighing on a quicker pace of recovery.”
Obesity Is Deadlier in Men With COVID-19 Than in Women – Medscape
The association between obesity and poor outcomes in COVID-19 are worse in men than women, with increased rates of in-hospital death, shows the largest study to date exploring the different impact of obesity between the sexes on COVID-19.
Men with a body mass index (BMI) greater than 35 kg/m2, and women with a BMI of 40 kg/m2 or more, were significantly more likely to die in hospital with COVID-19 than patients with a “normal” BMI of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2.
“Particular attention should be paid in protecting the population living with severe obesity from SARS-CoV-2 with priority to vaccination access, remote work, telemedicine, and other measures,” write Arcelia Guerson-Gil, MD, of the University Hospital for Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York City, and colleagues.
And “patients with severe obesity diagnosed with COVID-19 should be treated with particular attention given the high risk for worse outcomes,” they stress.
The study was published May 6 in the European Journal of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases.
Aberrant immune features in healthy elderly and male subjects with severe COVID-19 may predate infection – News-Medical
People over 70 years of age, and those with other chronic health conditions, have suffered the most from COVID-19. However, the 50-year mark indicates the point at which COVID-19 mortality angles upward steeply in men rather than in women across all populations.
An earlier study showed that men with COVID-19 had increased levels of interleukins IL-8 and IL-18, and of non-classical monocytes, while women with the infection had a higher frequency of T cell activation.
The researchers behind the current paper showed changes in various cytokines and chemokines, growth factors and mediators of inflammation at different stages of COVID-19. Thus, patients who required intensive care unit (ICU) admission had a different profile compared to those with severe COVID-19.
The current study aimed to examine “whether such differences are induced by the disease severity itself, or the potential to respond differently was already present in the healthy steady-state condition.” Since such immunological differences may have been affected by the season, they looked into this aspect as well.
… The study thus shows that the increased vulnerability of males and elderly people to SARS-CoV-2 is probably partly due to the pre-existing decline in total and differential T and B cell counts, which are reflected in severe COVID-19. This is probably because they cannot eliminate the virus efficiently under such conditions.
One of the biggest differences in immune cell types between males and females was the SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ cell types. Their presence in higher numbers is linked to mild COVID-19, related to the speedy induction of these cells.
Defects in triggering these cells in specific immunity when challenged by the virus were associated with severe COVID-19 and higher mortality.
Poll shows COVID-19 vaccine enthusiasm has reached a plateau – The Hill
The American public’s enthusiasm for taking a coronavirus vaccine has reached a plateau, according to a new nationwide poll, a sign of the tough road ahead for the Biden administration’s vaccination efforts.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Vaccine Monitor, the share of adults who have not yet gotten vaccinated but say they intend to do so as soon as they can has fallen to 9 percent.
At the same time, about 15 percent of respondents fell into the “wait and see” group, which remained about the same in April compared to March. But among Republicans, more than half now say they’ve gotten at least one dose or will do so as soon as they can.
That’s a significant increase from the 46 percent of Republicans who expressed enthusiasm about the vaccines in March. At the same time, the share of Republicans who will “definitely not” get vaccinated decreased from 29 percent in March to 20 percent in April.
The survey also showed limited eagerness for parents to get their children vaccinated, a troubling trend that’s coming just as the Food and Drug Administration is poised to grant authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be used in adolescents aged 12 to 15.
Among parents who have at least one child between the ages of 12 and 15, 30 percent said they’ll get their child vaccinated right away, 26 percent wanted to wait to see how it’s working, 18 percent said they will vaccinate only if their child’s school requires it and 23 percent said they will definitely not get their child vaccinated.
[editor’s note: also read Many American parents are hesitant to vaccinate their children for Covid-19, a new poll shows.]
Russia says one dose of its Sputnik V vaccine protects well enough to skip the second dose. – New York Times
The first dose of Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine provides sufficient protection on its own to be used without a second injection, the country’s Ministry of Health said on Thursday, clearing the way for a faster vaccination campaign in Russia.
The new policy arose from a debate among public health officials in Russia and a number of other countries about the benefits and drawbacks of accelerating vaccinations by skipping or delaying the second dose of vaccines that were originally designed to be administered in two shots a few weeks apart.
As is the case with other two-dose coronavirus vaccines, Sputnik V provides substantial protection, at least for the short term, after the first shot.
The ministry said in a statement that people in Russia who, for various reasons, skipped their second shot of Sputnik V were still far less likely to become sick than unvaccinated people were.
The statement cited an observational study that found Sputnik V to be 79.4 percent effective after a single shot. Russia has previously reported an efficacy of 91.6 percent after two shots.
The observational study was less precise than a standard vaccine trial, because it compared rates of infection in single-shot recipients with the general infection rate in the population, not with a control group. The ministry did not say how many single-shot recipients were studied. A separate placebo-controlled study of the issue is still underway.
The Russian vaccine uses two common cold viruses that have been genetically modified to carry genes of the coronavirus, which prime the immune system to prevent infection. Developers of the vaccine have said the second dose lengthens the period of time a recipient is immune.
Moderna CEO expects more Covid variants to emerge in coming months: ‘This virus is not going away’ – CNBC
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said Thursday the company expects more Covid-19 variants will emerge in coming months as the Southern Hemisphere enters its fall and winter seasons.
Bancel, speaking to investors on a first-quarter earnings call, said people will likely need to get booster shots of its two-dose Covid-19 vaccine as the virus circulates globally.
“New variants of concern continue to emerge around the world. And we believe that over the next six months, as the Southern Hemisphere enters the fall and winter, we could see more variants of concern emerge,” Bancel said. The Southern Hemisphere includes Africa, Australia, most of South America and parts of Asia. “We believe booster shots will be needed as we believe the virus is not going away.”
The US CDC lists the B.1.617 variant first detected in India as a variant of interest – CNN
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Wednesday listed the B.1.617 coronavirus variant first detected in India as a “variant of interest,” suggesting it may have mutations that would make the virus more transmissible, cause more severe disease or reduce vaccine efficacy.
B.1.617, which is now the most common variant in India, has also been found in the United Kingdom and the United States, and was recently detected in Israel.
How the CDC defines variants of interest: Variants with specific genetic markers that have been linked with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy or treatments, potential diagnostic impact or predicted increase in transmissibility or severity of disease. Attributes of the variant include potential reduction in neutralization by some monoclonal antibodies and potential reduction in neutralization from vaccines.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Chinese greenhouse gas emissions now larger than those of developed countries combined
Infections in India hit another grim daily record on Thursday as demand for medical oxygen jumped sevenfold and the government denied reports that it was slow in distributing life-saving supplies from abroad. The number of new confirmed cases breached 400,000 for the second time since the devastating surge began last month. The 412,262 new cases pushed India’s official tally to more than 21 million. The Health Ministry also reported 3,980 deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 230,168. Experts believe both figures are an undercount.
New Zealand Pauses ‘Travel Bubble’ With Australia Amid Coronavirus Outbreak In Sydney
Pfizer to donate vaccines for athletes at Olympics
Russia’s Single-Dose Sputnik Vaccine Gets Approval Without Completing Tests
India Oxygen Demand 7X Higher Than in April as New COVID Cases Hits 412K
India’s Biggest State Sets Up Cow-Protection Hotline Amid COVID Crisis
India’s vaccinations decline as its coronavirus outbreak reaches new highs.
Germany will allow anyone 18 and older to get the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Millions of Johnson & Johnson doses sit unused across three continents.
Troops lock down a hospital to contain a rare outbreak in Fiji
At least 19 people being evacuated from Nepal climbing camp due to coronavirus
Study from Israel shows Pfizer’s vaccine works far better with two doses
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Moderna vaccine 96% effective for ages 12-17 in testing
With the pool of vaccinated Americans growing, the number of confirmed new cases in the U.S. has fallen 35 percent in the past three weeks.
Bulletin Of Atomic Scientists Opens The Wuhan Virus Pandora’s Box
A factory executive at a U.S. plant manufacturing Eli Lilly’s COVID-19 antibody treatment allegedly changed documents to “downplay serious quality control problems.” At a second Lilly facility, “substandard sanitation and quality control procedures” caught the eye of FDA inspectors.
Inflation, Mega-Stimulus, and the Commodities Supercycle
Baltic Dry Index scores 15th straight gain as capesize rates hit 11-year high
Obesity Is Deadlier in Men With COVID-19 Than in Women
CDC director: Vaccinated adolescents can remove masks outdoors at summer camps
Eviction ban remains in effect for renters as government appeals ruling
New York City wants to offer the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine to tourists
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
01 May 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Improvement Continues
1Q2021 Preliminary Headline Productivity Improves
01 May 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves
April 2021 Job Cuts Fall To Levels Not Seen Since June 2000
Global Recovery 2021 And The Dark Legacies Of Smoot-Hawley
Is Sustained Inflation Coming?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 12 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectiveness as it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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