Written by Steven Hansen
The ISM Manufacturing survey declined but remains in expansion. The Markit PMI manufacturing index improved, remains in expansion, and new order growth at an 11-year high.
Analyst Opinion of the Manufacturing Surveys
Based on these surveys and the district Federal Reserve Surveys, one would expect the Fed’s Industrial Production index growth rate to be better than last month. Overall, surveys do not have a high correlation to the movement of industrial production (manufacturing) since the Great Recession. No question these surveys suggest the economy is no longer in recession.
From Econoday:
Consensus Range | Consensus | Actual | |
Markit Manufacturing | 60.5 to 62.8 | 60.6 | 60.5 |
ISM Manufacturing | 64.0 to 66.0 | 65.0 | 60.7 |
From the Markit PMI Manufacturing Index:
Strongest improvement in operating conditions on record amid marked uptick in client demand
- New order growth accelerates to 11-year high
- Greatest deterioration in vendor performance on record leads costs to soar
- Job creation quickens as backlogs of work accumulate markedly
- April PMITM data from IHS Markit indicated a robust improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector, and the steepest since data collection began in May 2007. Overall growth was supported by quicker expansions in output and new orders, with the latter rising at the sharpest pace since April 2010. The headline index was also pushed higher by unprecedented supplier delivery delays (ordinarily a sign of improvement in operating conditions). Raw material shortages also led to the fastest rise in cost burdens since July 2008, with firms seeking to pass on supplier price hikes through marked upticks in output charges. Meanwhile, business confidence moderated, amid concerns regarding supply chain disruptions and strains on future production capacity.
- The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 60.5 in April, up from 59.1 in March and broadly in line with the earlier ‘flash’ estimate of 60.6. The PMI figure was the highest since data collection for the series began in May 2007 and signalled a marked expansion. Contributing to the greater headline figure was a sharp and faster upturn in production across the manufacturing sector. Output growth was commonly linked to a stronger rise in new orders, although some companies continued to highlight pressure on capacity following raw material shortages.
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From the Institute of Supply Management report:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in April, with the overall economy notching an 11th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.7 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the March reading of 64.7 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 11th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 64.3 percent, declining 3.7 percentage points from the March reading of 68 percent. The Production Index registered 62.5 percent, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the March reading of 68.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 68.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher compared to the March reading of 67.5 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.1 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower than the March reading of 59.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75 percent, down 1.6 percentage points from the March figure of 76.6 percent. The Inventories Index registered 46.5 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than the March reading of 50.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 89.6 percent, up 4 percentage points compared to the March reading of 85.6 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 54.9 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to the March reading of 54.5 percent. The Imports Index registered 52.2 percent, a 4.5-percentage point decrease from the March reading of 56.7 percent.”
Fiore continues, “The manufacturing economy continued expansion in April. Survey Committee Members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to struggle to meet increasing rates of demand due to coronavirus (COVID-19) impacts limiting availability of parts and materials. Recent record-long lead times, wide-scale shortages of critical basic materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products are continuing to affect all segments of the manufacturing economy. Worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to part shortages, and difficulties in filling open positions continue to be issues that limit manufacturing-growth potential. Optimistic panel sentiment increased, with 11 positive comments for every cautious comment, compared to an 8-to-1 ratio in March. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing at a strong level, supported by the New Export Orders Index continuing to expand, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index hitting another all-time low and (3) Backlog of Orders Index continuing at a record-high level. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) indicated some cooling, posting a combined 10.1-percentage point decrease to the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. All top six industries reported moderate to strong consumption expansion. The Employment Index expanded for the fifth straight month, but panelists continue to note significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories, and imports — continued to support input-driven constraints to production expansion, at lower rates compared to March, due to an undesired inventory draw down. Inputs negatively contributed to the PMI® calculation, by a combined 5.9 percentage points. The importation of items marginally slowed in the period, driven by port backlogs. The Prices Index expanded for the 11th consecutive month, indicating continued supplier pricing power and scarcity of supply chain goods.
“All of the six biggest manufacturing industries — Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Petroleum & Coal Products, in that order — registered moderate to strong growth in April.
“Manufacturing performed well for the 11th straight month, with demand, consumption and inputs registering strong growth compared to March. Labor-market difficulties at panelists’ companies and their suppliers persist. End-user lead times (for refilling customers’ inventories) are extending. This is due to very high demand and output restrictions, as supply chains continue to respond to strong demand amid COVID-19 impacts,” says Fiore.
All 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in April, in the following order: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Wood Products.
Relatively deep penetration of this index below 50 has normally resulted in a recession.
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Readings above 50 in the ISM manufacturing index signal month-to-month growth for U.S. manufacturing as a whole, while those below 50 indicate monthly contraction. For the economy as a whole, readings above 60 signal national GDP growth of 5 percent, while those below 43 signal GDP contraction.
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It is interesting to note that ISM Manufacturing represents less than 10% of USA employment and approximately 20% of the business economy. Historically, it could be argued that the production portion of ISM Manufacturing leads the Fed’s Industrial Production index – however, the correlation is not strong when looking at trends.
However, holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from the Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the ISM Manufacturing Survey (purple bar).
Caveats on the use of the ISM Manufacturing Index:
This is a survey, a quantification of opinion – not facts and data. However, as pointed out above, certain elements of this survey have good to excellent correlation to the economy. Surveys lead hard data by weeks to months and can provide early insight into changing conditions.
Many use ISM manufacturing for guidance in estimating manufacturing employment growth. Econintersect has run correlation coefficients for the ISM manufacturing employment and the BLS manufacturing employment data series above going back to 1988, using quarterly data. The coincident correlations are actually negative, but poor (r = -0.2 to -0.4 for various time periods examined). See here for definitions.
Before 2000 the ISM employment data had a weak positive correlation to the BLS data 4 to 7 quarters later (r values above 0.6). Since 2000 the correlations for ISM manufacturing employment as a leading indicator for the BLS manufacturing employment have been between 0 and 0.3 for r (correlation coefficient). These values define correlations as none to poor.
In other words, the ISM employment index is not useful in understanding manufacturing jobs growth.
The ISM employment index appears useful in predicting turning points which can lead the BLS data up to one year.
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