Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 16.2 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.8 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 44,682
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 702
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 72.8 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Pandemic restrictions on foreign seasonal workers could crimp the U.S. summer.
- ‘Everything falls on my shoulders,’ says Serum Institute of India CEO Adar Poonawalla on vaccine pressure
- Indian scientists’ warnings about coronavirus went ignored amid surge
- What will family life look like one we are all vaccinated?
- These 14 States Need to “Be Careful” With COVID Now, Virus Expert Warns
- In Indonesia, lab workers are arrested and accused of reusing nasal swabs in thousands of coronavirus tests
- Nurses’ physical, mental health connected to preventable medical errors
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus1.htm’); ?>
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend continues to improve.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is lower.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths. The potential fourth wave did not materialize likely due to immunizations.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published two summary posts for coronavirus news this past week:
Novel coronavirus really is seasonal, study suggests – Livescience
Warm temperatures and tropical climates may really help reduce the spread of COVID-9, a new study suggests.
The study found that places with warm temperatures and long hours of sunlight — such as countries close to the equator and those experiencing summer — had a lower rate of COVID-19 cases, compared with countries farther away from the equator and those experiencing colder weather.
The findings held even after the researchers took into account other factors that could affect both the spread of COVID-19 and the number of reported cases, such as a country’s level of urbanization and the intensity of COVID-19 testing.
Still, the authors stress that their findings don’t mean that summer weather will eliminate COVID-19; but it may give people a leg up against the disease.
“Our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator,” the authors wrote in their paper, published April 27 in the journal Scientific Reports. “Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV [ultraviolet] radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2,” the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19.
Pandemic restrictions on foreign seasonal workers could crimp the U.S. summer. – New York Times
With the U.S. summer tourist season looming and vaccinations gathering steam, summer camps, amusement parks, beachside hotels and restaurants — anticipating an influx of visitors — are confronting a dramatic shortage of seasonal workers. It is threatening to sabotage their best efforts to stay financially afloat after more than a year of pandemic-fueled economic hardship.
Now small business and industry groups are pressuring the Biden administration to relax international travel restrictions and visa application protocols that would allow for more foreign workers to do the jobs that they say American citizens are unwilling to take.
Morey’s Piers, a seaside amusement park in Wildwood, N.J., needs to fill 1,500 jobs, including roller coaster operators, lifeguards and ticket sellers by the middle of June. To recruit, the company has advertised openings on 12 billboards in the region, joined virtual jobs fairs at high schools and tapped its network of former employees.
But so far, it has managed to fill less than a quarter of the positions, and a key source of its seasonal work force in previous years — foreign students from more than 30 countries — is unavailable because of pandemic restrictions. Now executives worry they may have to limit hours or keep certain rides closed for the entire season.
“We have about 350 filled right now so I’m not sleeping at night,” said Denise Beckson, the company’s vice president of human resources. “We’re really optimistic about visitor demand this summer, but we’re very concerned about staffing.”
In March, President Biden allowed a ban on foreign worker programs imposed by former President Donald J. Trump to expire, and approved an additional 22,000 HB-2 seasonal, nonagricultural worker visas. In late April, over 500 companies and industry groups that depend on the J-1 foreign student work visa program, urged in a letter to the State Department to relax travel restrictions and waive certain requirements like applicant interviews in an effort to supplement their American work force.
But even as vaccinations increase in the United States, the push for more foreign workers is colliding with public health concerns over a global coronavirus surge fueled by the rapid spread of more contagious variants. Last month, the State Department announced it will expand its “do not travel” guidance to about 80 percent of countries worldwide, including many that are sources of seasonal foreign workers, citing “unprecedented risk to travelers” from the Covid-19 pandemic.
WHAT WILL MY FAMILY’S LIFE LOOK LIKE ONCE WE’RE ALL VACCINATED? – National Geographic
So, have you started doing it yet? Have you started thinking about which family you’ll invite over first for an indoor get-together? Are you deciding which destination will have the honor of being your first post-pandemic family vacation that you arrive at by plane? Perhaps you’ve been imagining what you’ll do with those extra few hours the first time your children spend the day with a friend they haven’t seen in more than a year?
As we all get closer to becoming fully vaccinated, the possibilities that we’ve been imagining can be quite thrilling. (Or not—who knew I’d be so excited about a return to vegetable shopping at my crowded local market?) And with the news that Pfizer will soon request authorization to give its vaccine to 12- to 15-year-olds, and that the results of vaccine trials on younger children are expected to be made public this summer—well, it makes many of us feel more hopeful than we have in a long time. (Tell us what’s at the top of your family’s list after everyone is vaccinated.)
But still … what if your older child is vaccinated, but your younger one isn’t? (Above, a 12-year-old boy participates in a Pfizer trial in Cincinnati.) How do you deal with families who might not be vaccinated? Will your children still be afraid they might catch the virus—or transmit it to others? What if they’ve forgotten how to talk to other people in complete sentences? (Just kidding … kind of.)
“The fact that vaccines are available this quickly—and hopefully soon for children—is really exciting for families,” says clinical psychologist Janine Domingues of the Child Mind Institute. “But the re-emergence that comes with that also opens up a lot of anxiety and stress.”
Experts advise starting children’s re-emergence slowly to see how they acclimate, then adjusting as necessary. For those awkward conversations with other families, Emily Post’s great-great grandson, Daniel Post Senning, suggests transparency and honesty. (For more answers to questions about life after children are vaccinated, check out this article.)
And if all else fails, just remind kids that a trip to go vegetable shopping at a crowded market is really not all that it’s cracked up to be.
How the pandemic led to a rental car crisis just as Americans are ready to bust loose – Washington Post
Consumers are fuming as prices have spiked after firms shed hundreds of thousands of cars, with fleets depleted until 2022.
Avis Budget Group’s stock price closed at an all-time high on Friday, a sign that rental car companies’ fleet-shrinking strategies are paying off financially — even as they leave consumers fuming.
Major rental car operators last year sold off more than 770,000 cars as the pandemic crushed demand and kept Americans home, according to Jefferies Group, an investment bank. More than one of every three rental cars that were in service before the pandemic are no longer available.
For customers, smaller fleets mean higher prices and longer waits. But for the rental companies, shedding car leases and cutting billions of dollars in planned purchases was the key to survival. Now that the economy is growing faster than anticipated and people want to travel, the companies are struggling to find enough cars.
… The industry backfire illustrates that the post-pandemic recovery, while strong, may not be entirely smooth. As more retail businesses reopen, many report trouble hiring enough workers to cope with surging demand. Manufacturers complain that raw materials are scarce — a semiconductor shortage that hobbled auto production is making it hard for companies like Avis to restock.
… If the rental car industry — pulverized by last year’s recession — becomes a drag on this year’s recovery, it will be the result of both political and economic forces. The companies’ limited lobbying punch meant they were largely ignored during federal bailout talks. And the financial imperatives of the business required a short-term approach to fleet management that left them unprepared for the economy’s zero-to-60 restart.
[editor’s note: also read Experts say rental car shortage is caused by computer chips]
These 14 States Need to “Be Careful” With COVID Now, Virus Expert Warns – BestLife
Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, PhD, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, voiced his concerns about the dwindling vaccination rate recently. On the Apr. 29 episode of his Osterholm Update podcast, the infectious disease expert said states with higher new case rates and lower vaccination rates are the ones that need to “be careful” right now.
“We’re watching vaccinations drop precipitously in terms of new vaccinations. For the last four or five days, we have had more people in this country vaccinated for second dose only as opposed to the first dose, indicating that the numbers are coming down,” Osterholm explained. “We’ve got some big holes out there yet.”
“I just want us to be cautious here,” Osterholm continued. “I know others will say, it’s not going to surge, I’m blowing this out of proportion. But you look at the numbers yourself. And when we look at this, we see in so many instances the situation where we do have substantial gaps in vaccination. … Certainly some in the Northwest where we’re seeing vaccine hesitancies, others in the South where we’re seeing vaccine hesitancy. So I just raise this point right now that I think we have to be careful to assume we’re done.”
Specifically, Osterholm pointed out 14 states that should be on the lookout. For a better understanding of how vaccination rates vary in these states, we looked to Becker’s Hospital Review, which calculated the percentage of people in each state who’ve been vaccinated, using the CDC’s vaccine tracking data as of Apr. 30. Then, we looked at COVID Act Now’s U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker to compile new case rates on the 14 states Osterholm is worried about as of Apr. 30 as well. We’ve also included COVID Act Now’s vulnerability level for each state—some of which match Osterholm’s concern, while others do not.
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Georgia
- Idaho
- Indiana
- Louisiana
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Oklahoma
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Texas
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
‘Everything falls on my shoulders,’ says SII CEO Adar Poonawalla on vaccine pressure – The Hindu
Serum Institute of India CEO Adar Poonwalla on Saturday spoke out about the pressure he was under over the production of COVID-19 vaccines to meet the ever-increasing demand in India as the country battles a devastating second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
In his first comments since he was provided with ‘Y’ category security by the Indian government earlier this week, Mr. Poonawalla told The Times in an interview about receiving aggressive calls from some of the most powerful people in India, demanding supplies of Covishield — the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine that the Serum Institute is producing in India.
That pressure is largely behind his decision to fly into London to be with his wife and children, the 40-year-old entrepreneur said.
“The level of expectation and aggression is really unprecedented. It’s overwhelming. Everyone feels they should get the vaccine. They can’t understand why anyone else should get it before them,” he said.
Plans to manufacture outside India
The businessman indicated in the interview that his move to London is also linked to business plans to expand vaccine manufacturing to countries outside India, which may include the likes of the UK.
“There’s going to be an announcement in the next few days,” he said, when asked about Britain as one of the production bases outside India.
According to the newspaper, by the time the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was approved in January this year, the Serum Institute of India had increased its annual production capacity from 1.5 to 2.5 billion doses at a cost of $800 million, and stockpiled 50 million doses of Covishield.
The company began exporting to 68 countries, including Britain, as India seemed to have been over the worse, until the situation worsened in recent weeks.
[editor’s note: also read Adar Poonawalla, head of India’s vaccine giant, speaks from London of the enormous pressure he is under.]
Study: Nurses’ physical, mental health connected to preventable medical errors – EurekAlert
A study led by The Ohio State University College of Nursing finds that critical care nurses in poor physical and mental health reported significantly more medical errors than nurses in better health.
The study, which was conducted before the COVID-19 pandemic, also found that “nurses who perceived that their worksite was very supportive of their well-being were twice as likely to have better physical health.”
Study findings published today in the American Journal of Critical Care.
“It’s critically important that we understand some of the root causes that lead to those errors and do everything we can to prevent them,” lead author Bernadette Melnyk said. She serves as vice president for health promotion, chief wellness officer and dean of the College of Nursing at Ohio State.
… Study findings included:
- Of those surveyed, 61% reported suboptimal physical health, while 51% reported suboptimal mental health.
- Approximately 40% screened positive for depressive symptoms and more than 50% screened positive for anxiety.
- Those who reported worse health and well-being had between a 31% to 62% higher likelihood of making medical errors.
- Nurses who reported working in places that provided greater support for wellness were more than twice as likely to have better personal health and professional quality of life compared with those whose workplace provided little or no support.
Indian scientists’ warnings about coronavirus went ignored amid surge: report – The Hill
A warning from a forum of scientists about a new variant of COVID-19 spreading around India went ignored amid a surge of cases, some of the scientists told Reuters.
The forum, called the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genetics Consortium (INSACOG), warned health officials in early March of a more contagious variant of the virus called B. 771, and that cases could surge again.
Ajay Parida, a member of ISACOG, told Reuters that the panel knew of the variant as early as February.
ISACOG was set up in late December by a top official who reported directly to to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to Reuters.
Despite the warning, the government did not seek major restrictions to stop the spread, and instead allowed large crowds to attend religious festivals and political rallies.
The Indian government put out an official statement on March 24 warning of the variant. It said that samples from the Maharashtra state found an increase in the number of two specific mutations.
However, Reuters noted that the statement left out that the mutations were of “high concern,” a phrase included in the original draft of the statement.
It was unclear if Modi was ever informed of INSACOG’s findings or saw a draft of the release. His office didn’t return Reuters’ requests for comment.
In Indonesia, lab workers are arrested and accused of reusing nasal swabs in thousands of coronavirus tests. – New York Times
The idea was simple: Why throw away used rapid antigen test kits for the coronavirus when they could be used again and again?
All it took was washing the cotton swabs used to take nasal samples, repackaging them as if they were new and reusing them on other people.
The fraud unraveled this week when five laboratory workers were arrested in the Indonesian city of Medan and accused of reusing nasal swabs in administering as many as 20,000 tests. They face up to six years in prison for violating consumer protection, medical waste and contagious disease laws.
The authorities said they were investigating whether any people were infected with the coronavirus as a result of the contaminated tests given at an airport testing site operated by Kimia Farma, a giant state-owned company.
They were also investigating how many people received tainted test results as they prepared to board flights at Kualanamu International Airport, one of the nation’s busiest. A negative test result is required in Indonesia before a passenger can board a flight.
The police announced that they would conduct random checks of labs around the country to ensure that others were not conducting similar frauds.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The number of new daily cases has exceeded 800,000 for more than a week. The spike is largely driven by the outbreak in India, which now accounts for more than 40 percent of the world’s new cases.
Much of South America is also faring poorly. Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, Peru, Argentina and Colombia all rank among the 20 nations with the highest number of Covid deaths per capita.
Olympic officials are determined to have a Tokyo Games despite Japan’s growing doubts
Australia imposes fines up to $66K if citizens fly home from India during COVID-19 spike
India opens vaccinations to all adults amid growing COVID-19 crisis
Nepal runs out of hospital beds as India’s outbreak spills across the border.
Kenya’s president lifts restrictions as caseloads fall.
Thailand imposes new restrictions as it tries to control its worst outbreak.
How India’s Covid-19 crisis is slamming its economy
India’s COVID-19 daily cases hold close to record, another state imposes lockdown
Malaysia reports first case of Indian COVID-19 variant
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
In the U.S., more than 101.1 million people have been fully vaccinated, and more than 240 million doses have been administered, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Delta stops blocking middle seats, officially ending social distancing on planes
Majority Of US Companies Will Require Workers To Provide Proof Of Vaccination
TSA Extends Mask Mandate Aboard Flights Through Summer As Travel Increases
Biden keeps masking despite updated guidance
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
State Of The Older Entrepreneur During COVID-19
Did The Pandemic Spur Urban Flight? A Look At The Eighth District
We Need A New Social Contract Fit For The 21st Century
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 02May 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 02May 2021
Shortages Of Oxygen Needed To Keep COVID Patients Breathing
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>