Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 15.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.3 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 58,382
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 858
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 71.0 doses per 100 people.
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed and deaths little changed
- India’s daily Covid-19 cases pass 400,000 for first time
- India’s Covid vaccine shortage: The desperate wait gets longer
- Fact check: Fatality rate among fully vaccinated people who developed COVID-19 misleading
- The T.S.A. extends mask mandate through mid-September
- Colorado sees rapid spread of cases among middle and high school students
- Contact Tracing Breach Impacts Private Info of 72K People
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is lower.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 71 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 71 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 71 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- In theory, the pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is to what extent the vaccines will be mitigating this surge.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Colorado sees rapid spread of cases among middle and high school students. – New York Times
Coronavirus cases in Colorado are rapidly increasing among middle and high school students, state public health officials said this week, four months after schools began to reopen.
“Their rate is much higher on average for what we’re seeing for adults in the state, and that increase we’re seeing is pretty steep at this point,” Dr. Rachel Herlihy, the state’s top infectious disease expert, said Tuesday.
There is also an increase in younger children, between 3 and 10 years old, though it is “not as dramatic,” she said.
All told, there have been more than 2,300 reported cases among children in Colorado, up from 861 in December, according to the Denver Post. State data show that people under the age of 19 made up 26 percent of all cases in Colorado last week. People between 20 and 29 accounted for 40 percent.
Other states are also seeing sharp increases in infections among young people. For instance, in West Virginia, the proportion of cases among people under 20 has gone from 16 to 26 percent. Over all, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association, cases among those under 20 have averaged 13.7 percent over the pandemic, but 20.9 percent for the week ending April 22.
Contact Tracing Breach Impacts Private Info of 72K People – Medscape
Employees of a vendor paid to conduct COVID-19 contact tracing in Pennsylvania may have compromised the private information of at least 72,000 people, including their exposure status and their sexual orientation, the state Health Department said Thursday.
Workers at Atlanta-based Insight Global “disregarded security protocols established in the contract and created unauthorized documents” outside the state’s secure data system, Health Department spokesman Barry Ciccocioppo said.
“We are extremely dismayed that employees from Insight Global acted in a way that may have compromised this type of information and sincerely apologize to all impacted individuals,” Ciccocioppo said. He said state computer systems, including Pennsylvania’s contact tracing app, were not implicated.
Insight Global acknowledged it mishandled sensitive data and apologized. The company has been paid about $28.7 million since March 2020, according to the state Treasury Department.
Ciccocioppo said some of the records in question associated names with phone numbers, emails, genders, ages, sexual orientations and COVID-19 diagnoses and exposure status. They did not include financial account information, addresses or Social Security numbers, he said.
The T.S.A. extends mask mandate through mid-September. – New York Times
The Transportation Security Administration extended a mandate Friday that requires travelers to wear masks at airports, on airplanes and on commuter bus and rail systems, through Sept. 13. The mandate was set to expire on May 11.
“Right now, about half of all adults have at least one vaccination shot and masks remain an important tool in defeating this pandemic,” Darby LaJoye, a T.S.A. spokesperson, said in a statement.
The original order took effect in February and was part of the Biden administration’s goal to require masks for 100 days. Exceptions to the mandate are travelers under the age of 2 and those with certain disabilities that don’t allow them to wear a mask safely.
Are Some a Little Too Anxious for J&J’s COVID Shot? – MedPage
Rates of syncope, or fainting, following administration of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine were significantly higher than rates following influenza vaccination, researchers found.
Examining all reports of syncope following Johnson & Johnson vaccination submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), the anxiety-related event occurred at a rate of 8.2 episodes per 100,000 doses, while the rate after influenza vaccination was 0.05 episodes per 100,000, said Anne Hause, PhD, of the CDC, and colleagues, in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
Five different mass vaccination clinics reported 64 anxiety-related events, including 17 cases of syncope, among 8,624 Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine recipients from April 7 to 9.
An anxiety-related event was defined as occurring during the 15-minute post-vaccination observation period. Other anxiety-related symptoms included tachycardia, hyperventilation, dyspnea, chest pain, paresthesia (numbness or tingling), lightheadedness, hypotension, headache, and pallor.
Of these 64 cases, 61% occurred in women, and median patient age was 36.
The most common symptoms were lightheadedness or dizziness (56%), pallor or diaphoresis (31%), and syncope (27%). Notably, 13 patients said they had a history of fainting associated with injections or a needle aversion. Most cases resolved within 15 minutes with supportive care, although 13 patients were transported to an emergency department. Of the five for whom information was available, all were released the same day.
Hause and colleagues noted that four of the five sites temporarily suspended COVID-19 vaccination, and none of the events at the five sites were judged to be serious.
India’s daily Covid-19 cases pass 400,000 for first time as second wave worsens – CNBC
ndia posted a record daily rise of 401,993 new coronavirus cases on Saturday as the country opened up its massive vaccination drive to all adults, although several states warned of acute shortages.
It was the first time India’s daily case count had topped 400,000 after 10 consecutive days over 300,000. Deaths from Covid-19 jumped by 3,523 over the past 24 hours, taking the total toll in India to 211,853, according to official data.
The world’s biggest producer of Covid-19 vaccines has a limited number of shots available, worsening a grim second wave of infections that has overwhelmed hospitals and morgues while families scramble for scarce medicines and oxygen.
Hundreds of people were seen queuing to be vaccinated across Ahmedabad, the main commercial city in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, on Saturday.
The chief minister of the hard-hit state of Delhi on Friday implored people not to queue at vaccination centers, promising more vaccines would arrive “tomorrow or the day after”.
India’s eastern Odisha state said on Friday it had received a consignment of 150,000 shots but would only allow a few people to get shots due to lockdown restrictions preventing movement.
Fact check: Fatality rate among fully vaccinated people who developed COVID-19 misleading, experts say – USA Today
The claim: Death rate among COVID-19 vaccinated people is significantly higher compared to unvaccinated population
New data this week has found fully vaccinated adults 65 or older are 94% less likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than their same-aged peers – and 64% less likely if they have only received one dose of the mRNA vaccine.
These findings are the first large-scale, real-world results confirming Pfizer and Moderna’s clinical trial data (and early reports from Israel), said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which conducted the study.
But vaccination, while highly effective, doesn’t fully prevent coronavirus in some people. In the last few weeks, states across the U.S. have reported cases of COVID-19 infection among fully vaccinated people, also known as vaccine breakthrough infections.
On social media, a small number of deaths among this group has prompted comparisons to the COVID-19 death rate among the general population.
“The death rate for fully vaccinated people is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than non-vaccinated,” claims Instagram user Ian Smith in an April 25 post.
Smith’s post includes a screenshot of an April 24 tweet claiming the CDC has reported “7,157 Fully Vaccinated Americans Have Contracted COVID-19, 88 Have Died…”
… Our rating: False
We rate the claim that the death rate from COVID-19 among fully vaccinated individuals is significantly higher than the unvaccinated FALSE, based on our research. Experts say because the total number of vaccine breakthrough infections is unknown and voluntary state reporting to the CDC skews toward more serious COVID-19 cases, it is not possible to directly infer an accurate death rate. And regardless, any comparison between the vaccinated and non-vaccinated is heavily skewed by the fact that the vaccinated group at present has a much higher proportion of older adults who are most at risk.
[editor’s note: suggest one reads the full post to understand why this claim is false]
India’s Covid vaccine shortage: The desperate wait gets longer – BBC
India started its vaccine drive in January, amid plummeting cases and a fair bit of optimism.
The country’s very own Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccine maker, was meant to supply most of the jabs as the country headed towards an ambitious target – covering 250 million people by July.
As part of a World Health Organization (WHO)-led scheme, India even exported vaccines to countries that needed them.
But three months on, Covid cases and deaths are spiking across the country. Only about 26 million people have been fully vaccinated out of a population of 1.4 billion, and about 124 million have received a single dose. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has cancelled exports, reneging on international commitments. Worse, vaccine stocks in the country have nearly dried up, and no-one is sure when more will arrive.
How did India get here?
Demand surged when supply was short
On Wednesday afternoon local time – just as millions of Indians were trying to register online for a Covid jab – the vaccine portal and its accompanying apps crashed.
Starting 1 May, India is opening up vaccination for roughly 600 million more people, to cover 18-44 year olds. But CoWin, as the platform is known, couldn’t handle it.
“I am stuck in an OTP loop of horrors,” said one 33-year-old while trying to register for her jab. OTPs, or one-time passwords sent to mobile numbers, are a favoured Indian way of verifying identity online. She had a string of messages with OTPs, but nowhere to put them.
Others didn’t even get that far – #WaitingForOTP was soon trending on Twitter, and the memes and jokes followed. Eventually the site was back up – but, to the disappointment of more than 13 million people who did finally register, not a single vaccine centre had slots for booking.
[editor’s note: a good summary article for a weekend read on how India got here . Also read Coronavirus | Do not clampdown on citizen’s SOS calls via social media: Supreme Court]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
UK government sponsors social distance-free nightclub event as COVID-19 test
Fire Sweeps Indian COVID Ward for Second Time in a Week, at Least 12 Dead
Canada’s drug and vaccine regulator said on Friday that it was withholding the release of the country’s first shipment of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to verify its safety and quality. Health Canada, the regulator, said on Tuesday that none of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, developed by the company’s Janssen subsidiary, had been made at an Emergent BioSolutions factory in Baltimore which had discarded millions of possibly contaminated doses of AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine.
BioNTech CEO confident vaccine works against ‘double mutant’ strain identified in India
India’s COVID-19 surge is worsening, but Brazil is recording significantly more deaths.
Covid: Australians could face jail or fines if they return from India
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Covid vaccination does not infect people with shingles
BioNTech Expects Vaccine Trial Results for Babies by September
AstraZeneca’s vaccine has brought in $275 million in sales so far this year.
BioNTech expects vaccine data on kids ages 5 to 11 as early as end of summer
South Dakota governor sues Interior Dept. over denied permit for Mount Rushmore July 4th fireworks
Coronavirus absurdity: NJ small businesses angry over capacity limits while buses are jam-packed
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
For College Graduates Jobs Are Rebounding But Competition Is Fierce
How Many People Doubled Up After Losing Housing In Aftermath Of Past Recessions?
A Future With High Public Debt: Low-for-Long Is Not Low Forever
May 2021 Economic Forecast – Significant Bump
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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