Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 525 K to 617 K (consensus 558 K), and the Department of Labor reported 553,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 655,750 (reported last week as 651,000) to 611,750
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 81,167,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 16,559,276, down from last week’s 17,405,150
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 87 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 88 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending April 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 19,000 from 547,000 to 566,000. The 4-week moving average was 611,750, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 4,750 from 651,000 to 655,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending April 17, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 17 was 3,660,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 23,000 from 3,674,000 to 3,651,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,684,000, a decrease of 23,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 28, 2020 when it was 3,611,750. The previous week’s average was revised down by 5,750 from 3,713,000 to 3,707,250.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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