Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 12.0 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.6 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 64,858
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 483
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 63.8 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths worsened
- Faster air exchange in buildings not always beneficial for coronavirus levels
- FDA offers scathing review of Emergent plant’s sanitary conditions, employee training after halting production
- Why India is shattering global infection records
- Johnson & Johnson trial shows vaccine effective, even against variants
- It has become clear that many survivors, even those who had mild cases, continue to manage a variety of health problems long after the initial infection
- How long does protection from COVID-19 vaccines last?
- What activities can unvaccinated children resume?
- Many other interesting headlines today!
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is lower.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 63 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 63 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 63 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- In theory, the pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Why India is shattering global infection records – AP
The world’s fastest pace of spreading infections and the highest daily increase in coronavirus cases are pushing India further into a deepening and deadly health care crisis.
India is massive — it’s the world’s second-most populous country with nearly 1.4 billion people — and its size presents extraordinary challenges to fighting COVID-19.
Some 2.7 million vaccine doses are given daily, but that’s still less than 10% of its people who’ve gotten their first shot. Overall, India has confirmed 15.9 million cases of infection, the second highest after the United States, and 184,657 deaths.
The latest surge has driven India’s fragile health systems to the breaking point: Understaffed hospitals are overflowing with patients. Medical oxygen is in short supply. Intensive care units are full. Nearly all ventilators are in use, and the dead are piling up at crematoriums and graveyards.
… As the virus took hold last year, India imposed a harsh, nationwide lockdown for months to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. This brought terrible hardship to millions, but also bought time to implement measures to plug critical gaps, like hiring additional health care workers on short-term contracts, establishing field hospitals and installing hospital beds in banquet halls.
But authorities didn’t take a long-term view of the pandemic, said Dr. Vineeta Bal, who studies immune systems at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research in Pune city.
Suggestions for permanent improvements like adding capacity to existing hospitals or hiring more epidemiologists to help track the virus were widely ignored, she said. Now authorities are scrambling to resuscitate many emergency measures that had been ended once the numbers fell.
A year ago, India was able to avoid the shortages of medical oxygen that plagued Latin America and Africa after it converted industrial oxygen manufacturing systems into a medical-grade network.
But many facilities went back to supplying oxygen to industries and now several Indian states face such shortages that the Health Ministry has urged hospitals to implement rationing.
The government in October began building new plants to produce medical oxygen, but now, some six months later, it remains unclear whether any have come on line, with the Health Ministry saying they were being “closely reviewed for early completion.”
Tanks of oxygen are being shuttled across the country to hotspots to keep up with the demand, and several state governments have alleged that many have been intercepted by other states en route to be used to meet local needs.
… The good news is that India is a major vaccine producer, but even after halting large exports of vaccines in March to divert them to domestic use, there are still questions of whether manufactures can produce enough fast enough.
“Vaccination is one way to slow down the spread — but this really depends on the speed and availability of the shots,” said Reddy of the Public Health Foundation.
Already several states have said they have shortages in vaccines — although the federal government denies it.
India said last week it would allow the use of all COVID-19 shots that have been greenlit by the World Health Organization or regulators in the United States, Europe, Britain or Japan.
Faster air exchange in buildings not always beneficial for coronavirus levels – EurekAlert
Vigorous and rapid air exchanges might not always be a good thing when it comes to addressing levels of coronavirus particles in a multiroom building, according to a new modeling study.
The study suggests that, in a multiroom building, rapid air exchanges can spread the virus rapidly from the source room into other rooms at high concentrations. Particle levels spike in adjacent rooms within 30 minutes and can remain elevated for up to approximately 90 minutes.
The findings, published online in final form April 15 in the journal Building and Environment, come from a team of researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The team includes building and HVAC experts as well as experts in aerosol particles and viral materials.
“Most studies have looked at particle levels in just one room, and for a one-room building, increased ventilation is always useful to reducing their concentration,” said Leonard Pease, lead author of the study. “But for a building with more than one room, air exchanges can pose a risk in the adjacent rooms by elevating virus concentrations more quickly than would otherwise occur.
“To understand what’s happening, consider how secondhand smoke is distributed throughout a building. Near the source, air exchange reduces the smoke near the person but can distribute the smoke at lower levels into nearby rooms,” Pease added. “The risk is not zero, for any respiratory disease.”
More Clarity on Post-Vax COVID – MedPage
Real-world risks of developing COVID-19 infection and illness after full vaccination are coming into focus as more reports come in with hard numbers.
… Kentucky Nursing Home
Officials noted a burst of infections at the unidentified skilled nursing facility after a vaccination program was completed Feb. 21. At that time, 90% of the facility’s 83 residents and just over half of the 116 staff members had received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Residents had been routinely monitored for symptoms and staff were tested twice weekly.
On March 1, the first case of what became an outbreak was detected in an unvaccinated staff member via antigen testing. Over the next several weeks, 18 residents and four additional staff members were found to be infected, all more than two weeks after their last vaccine dose. Twelve of the cases among residents were asymptomatic; two involved hospital admission, and one resident died. Two staff members developing breakthrough infections developed symptoms that did not require hospitalization.
Investigators led by the CDC’s Alyson M. Cavanaugh, DPT, PhD, sequenced virus isolates from 27 cases at the facility and determined that these were an unusual strain known as R.1. This variant “is not currently identified as a CDC variant of concern,” the group wrote, but nevertheless it includes mutations such as E484K found in others known to be either more transmissible or more likely to produce serious illness than the original Wuhan strain.
Cavanaugh and colleagues did estimate vaccine efficacy for various outcomes at the nursing home:
- 66.2% for infection (including asymptomatic) in residents (95% CI 40.5%-80.8%)
- 86.5% for symptomatic COVID in residents (95% CI 65.6%-94.7%)
- 94.4% for hospitalization in residents (95% CI 73.9%-98.8%)
- 75.9% for infection in staff (95% CI 32.5%-91.4%)
- 87.1% for symptomatic COVID in staff (95% CI 46.4%-96.9%)
The researchers couldn’t be certain that these figures, somewhat lower than seen in clinical studies or Israel’s national experience, were because the R.1 strain is more virulent, but said it was possible.
Among COVID-19 survivors, an increased risk of death, serious illness – EurekAlert
As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, it has become clear that many survivors — even those who had mild cases — continue to manage a variety of health problems long after the initial infection should have resolved. In what is believed to be the largest comprehensive study of long COVID-19 to date, researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis showed that COVID-19 survivors — including those not sick enough to be hospitalized — have an increased risk of death in the six months following diagnosis with the virus.
The researchers also have catalogued the numerous diseases associated with COVID-19, providing a big-picture overview of the long-term complications of COVID-19 and revealing the massive burden this disease is likely to place on the world’s population in the coming years.
The study, involving more than 87,000 COVID-19 patients and nearly 5 million control patients in a federal database, appears online April 22 in the journal Nature.
“Our study demonstrates that up to six months after diagnosis, the risk of death following even a mild case of COVID-19 is not trivial and increases with disease severity,” said senior author Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, an assistant professor of medicine. “It is not an exaggeration to say that long COVID-19 — the long-term health consequences of COVID-19 — is America’s next big health crisis. Given that more than 30 million Americans have been infected with this virus, and given that the burden of long COVID-19 is substantial, the lingering effects of this disease will reverberate for many years and even decades. Physicians must be vigilant in evaluating people who have had COVID-19. These patients will need integrated, multidisciplinary care.”
[editor’s note: also read COVID-19 ‘long haulers’ more likely to seek medical care six months after infection: study]
Vaccinated adults, unvaccinated kids – New York Times
About what activities unvaccinated children can resume — may be even thornier.
By early this summer, nearly every U.S. adult who wants to be vaccinated will have had the opportunity, but most children will not have gotten a shot. (For now, no children under 16 are eligible.) This combination will create complex decisions for many families — about whether to send children to day care, get together with friends and relatives, eat in restaurants or travel on airplanes, as I describe in an article for the Sunday Review section.
Some families will choose to remain extremely cautious. Others will decide to start resuming many activities. My central argument is that both decisions are grounded in science.
On the one hand, Covid is a new disease, with uncertain long-term effects, which argues for caution. On the other hand, the risks to children appear to be extremely low, which argues for a move toward normalcy. For most children, Covid presents no more risk than a normal flu season, the data suggests.
These charts compare the share of estimated Covid cases that have been fatal, by age group, with the estimated share of fatal flu cases. As you can see, Covid has exacted a brutal toll on adults, far worse than any flu season — but the picture for children is very different:
By The New York Times | Sources: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Stephen Kissler, Youyang Gu, and other researchersAs with outdoor masks, extreme caution has its own downsides. Months of additional isolation would not be good for families, multiple studies have suggested. Isolation makes it harder for parents to return to work and harder for children to learn, develop social skills and be happy.
In the article, I quote two Covid experts who say that they will not keep their own children cooped up until they are vaccinated. “It’s really important to look at a child’s overall health rather than a Covid-only perspective,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, another expert, at Johns Hopkins University, said. If you let your children go to school during flu season, let them travel in a car or let them go swimming, you’re probably exposing them to more risk than Covid presents to them.
How long does protection from COVID-19 vaccines last? – AP
Experts don’t know yet because they’re still studying vaccinated people to see when protection might wear off. How well the vaccines work against emerging variants will also determine if, when and how often additional shots might be needed.
“We only have information for as long as the vaccines have been studied,” said Deborah Fuller, a vaccine researcher at the University of Washington. “We have to study the vaccinated population and start to see, at what point do people become vulnerable again to the virus?”
So far, Pfizer’s ongoing trial indicates the company’s two-dose vaccine remains highly effective for at least six months, and likely longer. People who got Moderna’s vaccine also still had notable levels of virus-fighting antibodies six months after the second required shot.
Antibodies also don’t tell the whole story. To fight off intruders like viruses, our immune systems also have another line of defense called B and T cells, some of which can hang around long after antibody levels dwindle. If they encounter the same virus in the future, those battle-tested cells could potentially spring into action more quickly.
Even if they don’t prevent illness entirely, they could help blunt its severity. But exactly what role such “memory” cells might play with the coronavirus — and for how long — isn’t yet known.
While the current COVID-19 vaccines will likely last for at least about a year, they probably won’t offer lifelong protection, as with measles shots, said Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, a vaccine expert at the University of Maryland.
“It’s going to be somewhere in the middle of that very wide range,” she said.
Variants are another reason we might need an additional shot.
The current vaccines are designed to work against a particular spike protein on the coronavirus, said Mehul Suthar of the Emory Vaccine Center. If the virus mutates enough over time, vaccines might need to be updated to boost their effectiveness.
So far, the vaccines appear protective against the notable variants that have emerged, though somewhat less so on the one first detected in South Africa.
House flies can carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 24 hours after exposure, study finds – News-Medical
A team of researchers in the USA – at Kansas State University and Agricultural Research Service – found that house flies can acquire and harbor infectious SARS-CoV-2 for up to 24 hours after exposure.
[editor’s note: what makes this even more important is that how were the quality in the first batches of J&J vaccine administered]
The FDA wrapped up its inspection of Emergent’s troubled vaccine manufacturing plant in Baltimore on Tuesday, after halting production there on Monday. By Wednesday morning, the agency already released a series of scathing observations on the cross contamination, sanitary issues and lack of staff training that caused the contract manufacturer to dispose of millions of AstraZeneca and J&J vaccine doses.
The first of nine observations in the Form 483, following a nine-day inspection, deals with the fact that Emergent failed to thoroughly investigate the vaccine drug substance mix-up that caused the firm to throw away 15 million doses of the J&J vaccine.
“There is no assurance that other batches have not been subject to cross-contamination,” the FDA writes.
The second observation deals with the fact that the facility is filthy.
In addition to chipping paint on the walls and floors that mean the surfaces cannot be adequately cleaned, FDA notes that waste generated during the manufacture of vaccine drug substance is not decontaminated before being transported through the warehouse and adjacent areas.
According to security camera footage, employees in one of the manufacturing areas in January and February were “observed throwing unsealed bags of special medical waste into the service elevator accessing the warehouse corridor,” the 483 notes. The third observation also raised concerns about the size of the facility, which was overcrowded with materials readied to be manufactured.
Employees were also observed in February and as recently as mid-April dragging unsealed bags of medical waste from one manufacturing area across the floor to the warehouse, as well as removing protective garments onto the warehouse floor where raw materials were being readied for manufacture.
The fifth and sixth observations note that Emergent did not properly handle and store viral bulk drug substances to prevent cross contamination and did not have proper procedures for decontaminating waste.
Johnson & Johnson trial shows vaccine effective, even against variants – The Hill
Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot coronavirus vaccine protected against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection, and prevented hospitalization and death in all participants 28 days after vaccination, according to new clinical trial results published Wednesday.
The vaccine was 67 percent effective on average against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 at least 14 days after administration, and 66 percent effective at 28 days after vaccination, according to data published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
The vaccine was about 77 percent effective against severe/critical COVID-19 at 14 days after administration, and 85 percent after 28 days.
The results match up to the initial numbers reported by the company in January — the vaccine offers a level of protection above the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) minimum but lower than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.
Additional data collected since the announcement in January found no evidence of a decline in protection over time, after following approximately 3,000 participants for 11 weeks and 1,000 participants for 15 weeks, the company said.
The results come from the company’s massive clinical trial that spanned three continents and enrolled a total of 43,783 participants.
Importantly, the vaccine also showed effectiveness against rapidly-spreading variants, including the B.1.351 variant, which was identified in 95 percent of the COVID-19 cases in South Africa, and the P2 variant, which was identified in 69 percent of COVID-19 cases in Brazil.
In South Africa, the vaccine was 64 percent effective against moderate to severe/critical disease, and the efficacy was 82 percent against severe/critical disease beginning 28 days post-vaccination.
Efficacy was also maintained in participants in Brazil, with 68 percent efficacy against moderate to severe/critical disease, and 88 percent against severe/critical disease.
Protection was generally consistent across race and age groups, including adults over 60 years of age, and those with and without pre-existing conditions.
“This comprehensive evidence demonstrates that Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot COVID-19 vaccine offers protection and prevents hospitalization and death, including in countries where viral variants are highly prevalent,” Paul Stoffels, Johnson & Johnson’s chief scientific officer, said in a statement.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
India has rapidly emerged as a hot spot for virus infections. The world’s second-most populated nation reported a global one-day record of more than 314,000 new infections Thursday. Last month, India was reporting fewer new cases in a week than it is now reporting in a day.
India sets COVID daily case world record
UAE suspends all inbound flights from India due to Covid-19 surge
Return the Favor: South Korea Looks to US for COVID Vaccine Aid
EU Snubs 300 Million J&J and AZ Shots, Betting on Pfizer: Source
Some poorer countries have yet to start vaccinations
France is imposing tougher entry restrictions to passengers traveling from India and Australia is reducing flights from the nation in an effort slow the spread of new variants.
Canadians Accidentally Receive Saline Injection Instead of COVID-19 Vaccine
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Burning Man mulling mandatory COVD-19 vaccines for August
On the issue of outdoor mask wearing, it helps to review a basic fact: There are few if any documented cases of brief outdoor interactions leading to Covid transmission. If you’re passing other people on a sidewalk or sitting near them on a park bench, the exposure of exhaled particles appears to be too small to lead to infection.
President Biden urged companies to give employees paid time off to get vaccinated.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines pose no serious risks during pregnancy, an early study suggests.
CDC: Fewer than 6,000 fully vaccinated Americans contracted Covid
Immune system, not COVID virus, may pose greatest risk to pregnant women
Mental health disorders increased sharply among Americans during first 9 months of COVID-19 pandemic
Cleaning frequency key to limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread at theme parks
Healthcare Providers Rarely Catch COVID-19 on the Job
U.S. Issues More Than 115 ‘Do Not Travel’ Advisories, Citing Risks From COVID-19
Burning Man may require proof of vaccination
The CDC estimated that just one of every 850 distributed COVID-19 vaccine doses was “unused, spoiled, expired, or wasted” — nearly 183,000 in all.
AstraZeneca still plans to seek FDA authorization in the U.S. for its COVID-19 vaccine.
As fears mount over J&J and AstraZeneca, Novavax enters a shaky spotlight
Early data indicate Pfizer, Moderna vaccines safe for pregnant women
Nearly a third of service members given COVID-19 vaccine
Restaurant and Retail Sales Increased 10% in March, Largest Boost in a Year
Daily pace of US Covid-19 vaccinations drops below 3 million shots per day, CDC data shows
Pfizer and Moderna vaccines do not appear to pose serious risk during pregnancy, new study suggests
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Do Kids Really Need To Be Vaccinated For Covid? Yes. No. Maybe.
March 2021 Headline Existing Home Sales: Rate Of Growth Again Slows
April 2021 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Expands At A Faster Pace
March 2021 Leading Economic Index Rose Sharply
17 April 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Improvement Continues
March 2021 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Improved
17 April 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves
New COVID-19 Cases Surge To Pandemic High
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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