Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 515 K to 670 K (consensus 615 K), and the Department of Labor reported 547,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 678,750 (reported last week as 683,000) to 651,000
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 80,601,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 17,405,094, up from last week’s 16,913,420
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 88 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 86 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending April 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 547,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 10,000 from 576,000 to 586,000. The 4-week moving average was 651,000, a decrease of 27,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised down by 4,250 from 683,000 to 678,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending April 10, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 10 was 3,674,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 21, 2020 when it was 3,094,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 23,000 from 3,731,000 to 3,708,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,713,000, a decrease of 41,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 28, 2020 when it was 3,611,750. The previous week’s average was revised down by 8,250 from 3,763,000 to 3,754,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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