Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 9.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 26.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 58,955
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 729
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 63.8 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- The new coronavirus variants may put people who have been vaccinated at higher risk of a “breakthrough infection”
- The US is vaccinating millions of Americans daily. But here’s why Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are up
- Masks Remain Extremely Effective Indoors, But Are They Necessary Outside?
- Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine 97.6% Effective in Real-World Study
- Children develop strong, long-lasting immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection
- Antibody response induced by mRNA vaccination differs from natural SARS-CoV-2 infection
- EU agency links J&J shot to rare clots, says odds favor use
- An unvaccinated worker set off an outbreak at a U.S. nursing home where most residents were immunized
- SARS-CoV-2 may have acquired immune evasion mutations during its transmission in farmed mink.
- SARS-CoV-2: Infection induces antibodies capable of killing infected cells
- How SARS coronaviruses reprogram host cells to their own benefit
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is lower.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 63 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 63 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 63 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- In theory, the pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
How SARS coronaviruses reprogram host cells to their own benefit – EurekAlert
Coronavirus researchers led by Professor Rolf Hilgenfeld of the University of Luebeck and PD Dr. Albrecht von Brunn of the Ludwig-Maximilian Universitaet (LMU) in Munich have discovered how SARS viruses enhance the production of viral proteins in infected cells, so that many new copies of the virus can be generated. Notably, coronaviruses other than SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 do not use this mechanism, which may therefore provide a possible explanation for the much higher pathogenicity of the SARS viruses. The findings appear in the EMBO Journal.
Coronaviruses that cause harmless colds in humans were discovered more than 50 years ago. When it emerged in 2002/2003, the SARS coronavirus was the first coronavirus found to cause severe pneumonia in infected people. Comparisons of the RNA genomes of innocuous coronaviruses with those of the SARS coronavirus permitted researchers to identify a region that only occurred in the latter, and was called the “SARS-unique domain” (SUD). Such genomic regions and their protein products might be linked to the extraordinary pathogenicity of SARS coronavirus and its cousin, the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2.
The research groups led by Hilgenfeld and von Brunn showed that the SUD proteins of these two viruses interact with a human protein called Paip-1, which is involved in the first steps of protein synthesis. Together with Paip-1 and other proteins in human cells, SUD apparently binds to the ribosomes, the molecular machines that are responsible for protein synthesis in cells. This would lead to an enhancement of the production of all proteins, both those of the host cell and those of the virus. However, in cells infected with SARS-CoV or SARS-CoV-2, the messenger RNA molecules that code for host proteins are selectively destroyed by a viral protein named Nsp1. As a result of this complicated process, the infected cell predominantly produces viral proteins, so that many new copies of the virus can be created.
Albrecht von Brunn’s research group discovered the interaction between the proteins SUD and Paip-1 several years ago. “Being an experienced coronavirologist, I knew that one has to inspect the special regions of the SARS genome when trying to understand this virus,” he says.
The discovery made by the Munich researchers was of great interest to Hilgenfeld, whose research group had already elucidated the three-dimensional structure of the SUD protein some years previously. The two research groups teamed up. Dr. Jian Lei in Hilgenfeld’s group, meanwhile a group leader at Sichuan University in Chengdu (China), succeeded in crystallizing the complex formed by SUD and Paip-1 and determining its three-dimensional structure by X-ray crystallography. And co-first author Dr. Yue “Lizzy” Ma-Lauer of von Brunn’s group characterized the complex of the two proteins and its function using a variety of cell-biological and biophysical methods.
“Interaction studies of this kind between coronavirus proteins and proteins of the infected human cell will help us understand how the viruses change key functions of the cell to their own benefit,” says Hilgenfeld. The project was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and by the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF).
Immune escape by SARS-CoV-2 mutations acquired in mink – NewsMedical
As vaccines roll out against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the agent behind the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, new variants have emerged with increased infectivity and, in some cases, virulence. More importantly, they display partial or complete resistance to the antibodies elicited by natural infection with older strains, or by vaccines, as well as therapeutic monoclonal antibodies such as those in the Regeneron cocktail.
A new study, published in Cell Reports, suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may have acquired such immune evasion mutations during its transmission in farmed mink.
… The Y453F mutation affects viral entry into a few cell lines, when present along with the other cluster 5 mutations, which may be why this cluster became extinct soon after it emerged. Cluster 5 spike protein is also more easily inhibited by soluble ACE2, which may indicate that the binding affinity is altered in the presence of all five mutations.
The study also suggests that the mutation reduces the efficacy of convalescent plasma against the virus after its amplification in mink in a fraction of cases. “This means that people who were infected with SARS-CoV-2 may have reduced protection against mink variants of the virus.”
However, since most of the samples completely block entry even at the lowest titers, high antibody titers are protective even against mink-derived virus.
Our results suggest that the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into mink allows the virus to acquire mutations that may compromise viral control by the humoral immune response in humans. “
The same mutation has also been identified in the virus during human infections, though not as the result of exposure to the mink variant. Instead, it has been observed to arise in prolonged infection.
The identification of SARS-CoV-2 in wild mink is also a threat to human health. It may indicate the potential for establishing a permanent natural reservoir for such viruses, both wildtype and new variants, that may repeatedly spill over into humans and other animals. The occurrence of such amplification must be detected by continuous monitoring, as well as the changes this brings about in viral biology.
Texas A&M researchers spot new coronavirus variant – Fox
Texas A&M researchers have found a new coronavirus variant, called BV-1 for the surrounding Brazos Valley area, though there are still many unknowns, according to a university release posted Monday.
The variant was detected in a saliva sample from just one student who had “mild cold-like” symptoms through the school’s testing program, the university said, but given genetic similarities in the strain to other variants that have shown to reduce neutralization power from antibody treatments, the researchers wanted to share the news globally. The variant is “related” to the U.K. B.1.1.7 variant, which according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is now the “most common lineage circulating in the U.S.”
“We do not at present know the full significance of this variant, but it has a combination of mutations similar to other internationally notifiable variants of concern,” said Ben Neuman, chief virologist at the Texas A&M University Global Health Research Complex, in the university release. “This variant combines genetic markers separately associated with rapid spread, severe disease and high resistance to neutralizing antibodies.”
EU agency links J&J shot to rare clots, says odds favor use – AP
The European Union’s drug regulatory agency said Tuesday that it found a “possible link” between Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine and extremely rare blood clots and recommended a warning be added to the label. But experts at the agency reiterated that the vaccine’s benefits outweigh the risks.
The European Medicines Agency made its determination after examining a small number of clot cases in people vaccinated in the U.S. It said these problems should be considered “very rare side effects of the vaccine.”
J&J immediately announced it will revise its label as requested and resume vaccine shipments to the EU, Norway and Iceland. In a statement, it said: “The safety and well-being of the people who use our products is our number one priority.”
Following the EMA’s decision, EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner Stella Kyriakides tweeted that vaccinations save lives and added: “I urge Member States to follow the opinion of our experts.”
Dutch health minister Hugo de Jonge said the Netherlands would start immunizing with the J&J vaccine on Wednesday.
[editor’s note: Johnson & Johnson said it will work with a German scientist on a study of the rare clotting incidents following use of its vaccine. U.S. hematologists also say they want people to get the vaccine despite the very small risk of clotting.]
Experts say Covid-19 vaccinations in the US are continuing at an impressive pace, and now all Americans 16 and up can get a shot. But a leading health official said that the country remains in a “complicated stage” of the pandemic.
“More people in the United States are being vaccinated every single day at an accelerated pace,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House Covid-19 briefing on Monday.
“On the other hand, cases and hospitalizations are increasing in some areas of the country and cases among younger people who have not yet been vaccinated are also increasing.”
In the past seven days, the US reported an average of more than 67,100 new Covid-19 infections daily, according to Johns Hopkins University data. That’s slightly below where the average was a week prior, but it’s still 25% above where it was nearly a month ago.
And about 44,000 Covid-19 patients were in US hospitals as of Sunday, the most recent day that data was available, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services. That number has generally been inching up since late March, when it dipped to around 37,900.
Experts say there are several reasons for the rise in these numbers, including dangerous coronavirus variants — such as the more contagious B.1.1.7 strain that has helped fuel another surge in Michigan. Pandemic fatigue and more Americans moving around have also likely contributed to the rise.
Is herd immunity to COVID-19 possible? Experts increasingly say no. – Yahoo
… Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease doctor, doesn’t want to talk about herd immunity anymore.
“Rather than concentrating on an elusive number, let’s get as many people vaccinated as quickly as we possibly can,” he said at a White House briefing last week, a sentiment he’s since repeated.
What Fauci doesn’t explicitly state, but others do, is that with about a quarter of Americans saying they might not want to be immunized, herd immunity is simply not an attainable goal.
“It’s theoretically possible but we as a society have rejected that,” said Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic’s Vaccine Research Group. “There is no eradication at this point, it’s off the table. The only thing we can talk about is control.”
After initially aiming for the kind of protection provided by the measles vaccine, officials are now focused on containment similar to the flu: acknowledging there will be regular outbreaks but hoping to limit them as much as possible.
Americans can go through their entire lives without worrying about getting the measles because of a long-lasting effective vaccine given to more than 90% of children. Although small pockets of infection occur when vaccination rates drop, even people who can’t get the vaccine or are immunocompromised remain mostly protected.
With COVID-19, where vaccines are effective but won’t last a lifetime, vaccine hesitancy makes that kind of widespread protection unlikely, experts say.
That means people who can’t get vaccinated or whose immune systems are dampened by medication or disease will remain vulnerable. There will probably always be enough unvaccinated people to allow COVID-19 to spread once it arrives in a community. And even people who are vaccinated won’t be 100% protected in the face of such a contagious illness.
But the more people who get their shots, the better.
Why the Panic Over Israeli Study on Infections After Vax? – MedPage
A small Israeli study published as a preprint on medRxiv indicated that some of the new coronavirus variants may put people who have been vaccinated at higher risk of a “breakthrough infection.” This study states in part:
Here, we performed a case-control study that examined whether BNT162b2 vaccinees with documented SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to become infected with B.1.1.7 or B.1.351 compared with unvaccinated individuals. Vaccinees infected at least a week after the second dose were disproportionally infected with B.1.351 (odds ratio of 8:1). Those infected between two weeks after the first dose and one week after the second dose, were disproportionally infected by B.1.1.7 (odds ratio of 26:10), suggesting reduced vaccine effectiveness against both VOCs under different dosage/timing conditions. Nevertheless, the B.1.351 incidence in Israel to-date remains low and vaccine effectiveness remains high against B.1.1.7, among those fully vaccinated. These results overall suggest that vaccine breakthrough infection is more frequent with both VOCs, yet a combination of mass-vaccination with two doses coupled with non-pharmaceutical interventions control and contain their spread.
Masks Remain Extremely Effective Indoors, But Are They Necessary Outside? – NPR
Scientists and public health experts agree that masks are effective at lowering the spread of the coronavirus indoors, where the vast majority of transmission is likely to occur.
But what about outside?
About two dozen states have statewide mask mandates that generally require people to wear masks outside when they’re not able to stay at least 6 feet apart. Many cities have their own rules.
But with vaccinations accumulating, some health experts and journalists are arguing that now is a good time for authorities to ease up on outdoor mask requirements. Studies have linked transmission to indoor settings far more than outdoor ones, though data is limited and there are plenty of caveats.
Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, notes that case numbers aren’t going down and they’ve been largely stagnant for the past month or two. But he says the situations driving it are groups of people gathering indoors without masks.
“Once you get outside, it starts becoming really, really uncommon for the virus to spread,” he tells NPR’s All Things Considered.
An unvaccinated worker set off an outbreak at a U.S. nursing home where most residents were immunized. – New York Times
An unvaccinated health care worker set off a Covid-19 outbreak at a nursing home in Kentucky where the vast majority of residents had been vaccinated, leading to dozens of infections, including 22 cases among residents and employees who were already fully vaccinated, a new study reported Wednesday.
Most of those who were infected with the coronavirus despite being vaccinated did not develop symptoms or require hospitalization, but one vaccinated individual, who was a resident of the nursing home, died, according to the study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Altogether, 26 facility residents were infected, including 18 who had been vaccinated, and 20 health care personnel were infected, including four who had been vaccinated. Two unvaccinated residents also died.
SARS-CoV-2: Infection induces antibodies capable of killing infected cells – EurekAlert
SARS-CoV-2 infection induces antibodies capable of killing infected cells regardless of disease severity.
“This study demonstrated that individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 have antibodies that are capable of attacking the virus in different ways, by preventing it from entering cells (neutralization) or by activating NK cells to kill infected cells (via ADCC). We therefore use the term polyfunctional antibodies,” explains Timothée Bruel, co-last author of the study and a scientist in the Institut Pasteur’s Virus & Immunity Unit and at the VRI.
By comparing different groups of patients, the scientists then showed that asymptomatic individuals also have polyfunctional antibodies and that their response is slightly weaker than those of patients with moderate forms of COVID-19.
“The study reveals new mechanisms of action of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and suggests that the protection induced by an asymptomatic infection is very close to that observed after a symptomatic infection,” concludes Olivier Schwartz, co-last author of the study, head of the Virus & Immunity Unit and at the VRI.
Antibody response induced by mRNA vaccination differs from natural SARS-CoV-2 infection – News-Medical
Researchers tested the antibodies elicited from mRNA vaccination and compared them to those from natural SARS-CoV-2 infection. They found the vaccine did not have antibodies to the virus nucleocapsid protein but had potent RBD antibodies.
… There was a difference between the antibodies elicited by natural infection compared to that from the vaccine. Since the vaccine does not have the nucleocapsid protein, there are no antibodies against this in the vaccine-induced antibodies. However, antibodies against nucleocapsid were seen in natural infection, suggesting this could be a biomarker for natural infection.
Further testing revealed that vaccines elicit more antibodies against the spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) compared to the antibodies seen in natural infection. All individuals had antibodies to seasonal flu, and cold and the levels were the same for all irrespective of whether they had COVID-19.
Natural infection produces antibodies to the nucleocapsid and all fragments of the spike protein. The highest antibody levels were against the nucleocapsid, full-length spike protein, and the S2 subunit. Antibody levels against RBD were weak and could be a mechanism for new virus variants to evolve.
… Natural infection produces a uniform level of antibodies against the nucleocapsid and spike protein. Vaccinated individuals fall into two groups, those with antibodies against the nucleocapsid protein and those without. Those with nucleocapsid antibodies may have been infected naturally before.
Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine 97.6% Effective in Real-World Study – Reuters
Russian scientists have found the Sputnik V vaccine 97.6% effective against COVID-19 in a “real-world” assessment based on data from 3.8 million people, Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute and the Russian Direct Investment Fund said on Monday.
The new claimed effectiveness rate is higher than the 91.6% rate outlined in results from a large-scale trial of Sputnik V that was published in The Lancet medical journal earlier this year, and compares favourably with data on the effectiveness of other COVID-19 vaccines.
The new data will be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal next month, the statement added.
The new data was based on 3.8 million Russians who received both a first shot and a booster shot as part of the national roll-out of Sputnik V.
“This data confirms that Sputnik V demonstrates one of the best protection rates against coronavirus among all vaccines,” said Kirill Dmitriev, head of the RDIF sovereign wealth fund which is backing the vaccine.
The incidence of infection was calculated from the 35th day from the first injection, the statement said, showing an incidence rate of 0.027%.
Children develop strong, long-lasting immunity following SARS-CoV-2 infection – News-Medical
Researchers in the UK have conducted a study that may explain why children who become infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) do not generally develop severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
… Another striking feature was that SARS-CoV-2 infection among children doubled antibody titers against four other types of human coronaviruses that frequently cause the common cold – a pattern that was not observed in adults.
The cellular immune response to the viral spike protein was also more than twice as strong among children compared with among adults. The spike protein is the surface structure the virus uses to bind to and infect host cells.
Importantly, all children retained high antibody titers and cellular responses for more than 6 months following infection, while a relative waning of antibody titers was observed for adults.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Pfizer says it identified counterfeits of its COVID-19 vaccine in Poland and Mexico.
France restricting travel from India amid virus surge
U.K. COVID Variant Makes Up 80% of France’s Cases
22 COVID Patients Die in India After Oxygen Supply Cut Off for 15 Minutes
The government of the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh is arranging buses for migrant workers to return home from neighboring Delhi after the territory announced a week-long lockdown due to the surge in Covid-19 cases on Monday.
India reports highest rise in Covid-19 cases and deaths in a single day
New coronavirus cases around the world reached a new weekly record, according to the W.H.O.
Turkey reports fourth consecutive day of record Covid-19 deaths
Germany’s lower house votes to allow federal govt Covid-19 lockdown powers
Iraq hits 1 million Covid-19 cases after setting daily record
China’s vaccine nationalism softens as country signals it may approve foreign-made shots
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Two in three U.S. adults who have not yet received a coronavirus vaccine say they’re unlikely to get one, an Axios-Ipsos poll found.
Some Republicans initially skeptical of getting a COVID-19 vaccine are finding their skepticism getting worse, a focus group found.
Now added to the list of animals who can contract COVID: otters.
Biden calls for every employee to get paid leave for vaccinations
Summers says inflation indicators flashing ‘red alarm’
Biden to Call on Companies to Give Paid Time Off for Vaccinations
Yale Doctor Harvey Risch Calls COVID Lockdown ‘Counterproductive’. The doctor recently criticized the pandemic response. He told Newsweek, “Once the virus became endemic, lockdown is counterproductive.”
Daily confirmed cases in the Lewiston-Auburn metro area, home of Bates College and a vibrant immigrant community, are rising at a faster rate per person than in any other U.S. community with more than 50,000 people, according to a New York Times database.
Yelp says more than a half million new businesses opened in the last year
Scientist who helped develop Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine says third shot needed
Biden on sending vaccines abroad: “We don’t have enough to be confident to send it abroad now”
“While timing may differ by state, we estimate that across the US as a whole we will likely reach a tipping point on vaccine enthusiasm in the next 2 to 4 weeks,” the Kaiser Family Foundation said in a new report published Tuesday.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
March 2021 Trucking Is Either Outstanding Or Contracting
From Vaccines To V-Shaped Recovery In Europe
How COVID-19 Affected First-Time Homebuyers
Breakthrough Infections Rare Among Vaccinated Americans
Did The Pandemic Speed Up Productivity Growth?
COVID19: Europe And EU27 17April 2021
COVID19: Worldwide Data 17April 2021
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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