Written by Steven Hansen
Headline data for the CASS Freight Index show that truck volumes show volumes improved month-over-month – and the year-over-year growth is now in double digits. In the opposite corner, the American Trucking Association (ATA) index declined and is in contraction year-over-year.
Analyst Opinion of Truck Transport
The CASS index is inclusive of rail, truck, and air shipments. The ATA truck index is inclusive of only trucking industry member movements (ATA’s tonnage data is dominated by contract freight).
I put a heavier weight on the CASS index year-over-year which is more consistent with rail and ocean freight.
Econintersect tries to validate truck data across data sources. It appears this month that the truck employment rate of growth continues to improve. Please note using BLS employment data in real-time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted (sometimes significantly). Additionally, Econintersect believes that the BLS is not capturing all truck employment.
ATA Trucking
American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 5.1% in March after falling 2.3% in February. In March, the index equaled 106.8 (2015=100) compared with 112.5 in February.
Said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
March’s drop comes as somewhat of a surprise. I certainly heard from many fleets that the end-of-quarter rush was good, but early March was soft. Truck freight volumes were also negatively impacted by supply chain issues from the lack of microchips and other inputs. That said, this surprise to the downside does not change my positive outlook going forward.
Household spending power is strong and I believe there is plenty of pent-up demand for consumer spending. Single-family home construction and stronger manufacturing output, even with the supply chain issues, will help support tonnage through this year and beyond.
Compared with March 2020, the SA index fell 9.5%, which was preceded by a 3.8% year-over-year decline in February.
ATA Truck tonnage this month
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source: ATA
CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT
The following was reported by CASS:
The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® reaccelerated in March to a 10.0% y/y increase, recovering from the slowdown to 4.1% in February from the polar vortex and then some. The index increased 5.8% m/m from February, part of which is normal seasonality, but the increase was still up 3.4% m/m in March on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. This more than reversed the 3.2% m/m decline in February (SA) due to the weather event.
This freight volume improvement is consistent with our optimistic outlook, supported by inventory levels, consumer trends, and the backlog of freight anchored off U.S. ports. Near-term supply chain risks remain and, following the Suez Canal blockage, could briefly spread beyond the semiconductor shortages that will affect vehicle production at least through Q2 and perhaps considerably longer. However,
- If the Cass shipments index just takes a normal seasonal pattern from here, it will be up over 30% y/y in Q2.
- On a two-year stacked basis, the Cass shipments index was just 0.1% below March 2019, or essentially flat with the pre-crisis level.
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https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2021
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