Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 7.1 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 23.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 52,896
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 483
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 63.3 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths were improved
- ​J&J Vaccine Reviewed for Links to More Reports of Side Effects
- J&J COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing halted at U.S. plant that had contamination issue
- Gut’s immune response in COVID-19 may not provide efficient protection of other organs
- Preventing evictions remains critical to controlling COVID-19, study finds
- Earthquakes continued after COVID-19-related oil and gas recovery shutdown
- And 30 More COVID Headlines
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is lower.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 63 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 63 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 63 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- In theory, the pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Gut’s immune response in COVID-19 may not provide efficient protection of other organs – EurekAlert
Our guts may not provide long-lasting systemic immunity from COVID-19, which is where immune cells circulate through the body to provide protection to other organs, finds a new study published in Frontiers in Immunology. An analysis of blood samples from patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 revealed that immune cells circulating in the blood, which were triggered by the gut’s response to infection, were limited in number when compared to immune cells that had been triggered elsewhere in the body.
“Although the gut is considered an important portal of entry for the virus, the immune response in the blood of COVID-19 patients is dominated by lymphocytes – cells that protect the body from infection – that have been triggered by other areas of the body,” says Dr Sebastian Zundler, author of this study and research group leader at the Department of Medicine 1, University Hospital Erlangen, Germany. “Further work is needed, but these findings may have implications for oral COVID-19 vaccines.”
COVID-19 infection can enter the body via the lungs or the gut, hence the advice for social distancing and frequent handwashing. Zundler’s team were keen to understand the role of the gut in providing systemic immunity to this virus.
… “Our study adds to our understanding of the human immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, but we cannot yet finally answer the question about the fate of the gut-imprinted immune cells – whether they are “diluted” or “attracted” elsewhere. Assessing biopsy samples from the gut and autopsy samples from the lungs will help us to answer this important question” says Zundler.
J&J Vaccine Reviewed for Links to More Reports of Side Effects – Reuters
The United States is reviewing reports of a handful of potential cases of severe side effects among people who received Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine in addition to those that led to a pause in its use, a top U.S. public health official said on Monday.
U.S. health regulators called for a pause in administering the J&J vaccine last week due to reports of serious brain blood clots in six women under age 50 who received the shot out of some 7 million vaccinated with it in the United States.
“We are encouraged that it hasn’t been an overwhelming number of cases but we’re looking and seeing what’s come in,” U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky said during a Monday news briefing.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is monitoring the U.S. government’s database for additional reports of side effects, she added. Walensky did not provide any details on the nature of the additional side effects.
An advisory panel for the CDC is meeting on Friday to review data on severe side effects and will make a recommendation on whether the United States should resume using the J&J vaccine.
Public health experts have predicted a resumption, but only after healthcare providers are given clear guidelines for how to recognize and treat the blood clots that can emerge as a rare side effect of the vaccine.
Earthquakes continued after COVID-19-related oil and gas recovery shutdown – EurekAlert
When hydraulic fracturing operations ground to a halt last spring in the Kiskatinaw area of British Columbia, researchers expected seismic quiescence in the region. Instead, hundreds of small earthquakes occurred for months after operations shut down, according to a new study.
In her presentation at the Seismological Society of America (SSA)’s 2021 Annual Meeting, Rebecca Salvage of the University of Calgary said about 65% of these events could not be attributed to either natural seismicity or active fluid injection from hydraulic fracturing operations.
Salvage and her colleagues instead suggest the latent earthquakes may be the result of aseismic slip, driven by fluid from previous hydraulic fracture injections keeping rock pore pressures elevated.
“Because there are lots of faults in that area, the fluid is becoming trapped in these zones,” Salvage explained. “And as aseismic deformation occurs, which leads to very, very slow slip in these zones, then you get seismicity generated from that process.”
The study by Salvage and her University of Calgary colleague David Eaton offers an unusual glimpse at how hydraulic fracturing may alter the rate of seismicity in a region long after active operations cease.
J&J COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing halted at U.S. plant that had contamination issue – Reuters
Production of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ.N) COVID-19 vaccine at a U.S. manufacturing plant was halted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration while the agency investigates an error that led to millions of doses being ruined last month.
Emergent BioSolutions Inc (EBS.N), the company that owns and runs the Baltimore plant that had been making the J&J vaccine, said in a regulatory filing that the FDA requested a pause on April 16 in production of new drug substance for the shot pending completion of the inspection.
Johnson & Johnson said it would work with Emergent and the FDA to address any findings at the end of the inspection.
J&J was put in charge of manufacturing at the plant in early April by the U.S. government after it disclosed the error in which ingredients from AstraZeneca’s shot (AZN.L) also being produced at the plant at that time contaminated a batch of the J&J vaccine.
… “At this time, it is premature to speculate on any potential impact this could have on the timing of our vaccine deliveries,” J&J said. The company has previously said it would deliver 100 million doses of its vaccine to the United States during the first half of 2021 and has so far delivered about 18 million.
US Will Boost ‘Do Not Travel’ Advisories to 80% of World – Medscape
The U.S. State Department said on Monday it will boost its “Do Not Travel” guidance to about 80% of countries worldwide, citing “unprecedented risk to travelers” from the COVID-19 pandemic.
“This update will result in a significant increase in the number of countries at Level 4: Do Not Travel, to approximately 80% of countries worldwide,” the department said in a statement.
The State Department already listed 34 out of about 200 countries as “Level 4: Do Not Travel,” including places like Chad, Kosovo, Kenya, Brazil, Argentina, Haiti, Mozambique, Russia and Tanzania. Getting to 80% would imply adding nearly 130 countries.
Most Americans were already prevented from traveling to much of Europe because of COVID-19 restrictions. Washington has barred nearly all non-U.S. citizens who have recently been in most of Europe, China, Brazil, Iran and South Africa.
The State Department said the move does not imply a reassessment of current health situations in some countries, but rather “reflects an adjustment in the State Department’s Travel Advisory system to rely more on (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s) existing epidemiological assessments.”
Preventing evictions remains critical to controlling COVID-19, study finds – EurekAlert
Renter protection policies that have curbed mass evictions during the COVID-19 pandemic have played a key role in preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in U.S. cities, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.
Using an epidemiological model to predict how evictions and eviction moratoria would impact the epidemic, the researchers found, for instance, that in a city of 1 million in which 1 percent of households experience eviction monthly, this could lead to up to 49,000 excess COVID-19 infections. In Philadelphia alone, a fivefold increase in evictions, predicted by some economic analyses, could lead to 53,000 extra infections. The study was led by researchers in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Johns Hopkins University, and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
“Our model shows clearly that policies to stem evictions are not only a warranted but a necessary component of COVID control. As long as the virus is circulating, ending these protections could have devastating implications in the United States,” said co-senior author Michael Z. Levy, PhD/a>, an associate professor of Epidemiology in Penn’s Perelman School of Medicine.
[editor’s note: also read Eviction bans authorized during COVID-19 pandemic reduced the infection rate, indicates study]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The pandemic’s economic devastation has been especially stark in Argentina.
Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine shows 50% effectiveness in a cohort of Brazilian healthcare workers
Nonstop Cremations Cast Doubt on India’s Counting of COVID Dead
‘A Very Good Weird’: Israel Drops Outdoor COVID Mask Order
India Records Over 250K COVID-19 Infections in 1 Day
An outbreak in Cambodia could become a ‘national tragedy.’
France is introducing a digital Covid document for travel to its overseas territories.
Researchers in China are mixing two vaccines to test their effectiveness.
Thousands of Canada’s essential workers will be vaccinated in North Dakota
Sweden will give different second vaccine dose to people under 65 who had first dose of AstraZeneca
100% of ICU beds now occupied in Iran’s capital as coronavirus cases surge
Argentina received 800,000 doses of Russia’s Sputnik-V vaccine
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Differing immune responses discovered in asymptomatic cases vs those with severe COVID-19
Flushing a public toilet? Don’t linger, because aerosolized droplets do
Adults 65 and older are the most vaccinated age group in America, although about a fifth have not yet received a shot.
EU drug regulator prepares to issue advice on J&J COVID shot
Limited SARS-CoV-2 spread in childcare centers, finds study
Vast Stretches Of America Have Now Descended Into A State Of Deep Economic Hopelessness
Prisoners at Guantanamo Bay can now begin getting vaccinated too.
Despite being toward the front of the line, one-fifth of older adults have yet to receive the jab.
Turf wars among federal agencies on how to handle the initial evacuation of U.S. citizens from Wuhan led to “health and safety” risks for the evacuees, officials, and entire communities, a Government Accountability Office report concluded.
CVS announced it is now selling three over-the-counter COVID-19 tests for home use.
The NIH will fund a large randomized trial to study repurposed drugs for treating COVID-19 symptoms in mild-to-moderate cases.
Low COVID Vaccine Response in Patients With Blood Cancers
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
February 2021 CoreLogic Single-Family Rents: Rent Prices Continue To Spike
March 2021 Labor Market Survey: Employment Expectations Again Improve
Racial And Ethnic Disparities In Housing Distress During The Pandemic
Infographic Of The Day: Heres What 1,000 Invested In Vaccine Stocks Would Be Worth Now
The Shock And Reality Of Catching Covid After Being Vaccinated
Prolonged Brain Dysfunction In COVID-19 Survivors: A Pandemic In Its Own Right?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts – in the U.S. and around the world – decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu – as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent – is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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