Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 650 K to 705 K (consensus 680 K), and the Department of Labor reported 744,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 721,250 (reported last week as 719,000) to 723,750
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 79,272,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 18,164,588, down from last week’s 18,215,450
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 81 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 73 % lower last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending April 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 744,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 9,000 from 719,000 to 728,000. The 4-week moving average was 723,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,250 from 719,000 to 721,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending March 27, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 from 2.7 to 2.6 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 27 was 3,734,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 21, 2020 when it was 3,094,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 44,000 from 3,794,000 to 3,750,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,862,000, a decrease of 105,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 10,750 from 3,978,500 to 3,967,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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