Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 1.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 17.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 36,670
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 277
• U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 49.4 % of the population
• The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
• A low-cost vaccine entering clinical trials could change how we fight the pandemic.
• A single shot of a nasal vaccine protected monkeys from SARS-CoV-2 infection.
• Phase 1 clinical study of unique vaccine to protect against COVID-19 begins
• CDC updates guidance for cleaning surfaces to protect against Covid-19
• UCF study shows masks, ventilation stop COVID spread better than social distancing
• California Reports First Case of Double Mutation Variant From India
• Public trust in the CDC falls during coronavirus pandemic
• More countries sign onto a “digital travel pass” developed by the International Air Transport Association.
• ‘Overwhelming circumstantial evidence’ points to COVID-19 lab leak
• Walgreens wasn’t following U.S. guidance on spacing Pfizer doses, but, following complaints, will do so
• Yellen warns that slow vaccine rollout in poor countries poses threat to U.S., global economies
• Cruise ships won’t have to require vaccinations when they resume sailing, the C.D.C. says

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.

The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave

Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.

• the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 49 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 49 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
• it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 49 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
• The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
• It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.

The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

A low-cost vaccine entering clinical trials could change how we fight the pandemic. – New York Times

A new coronavirus vaccine that is entering clinical trials in Brazil, Mexico, Thailand and Vietnam could change how the world fights the pandemic. The vaccine, called NVD-HXP-S, is the first in clinical trials to use a new molecular design that is widely expected to create more potent antibodies than the current generation of vaccines. And it could be far easier to make.

Existing vaccines from companies like Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson must be produced in specialized factories using hard-to-acquire ingredients. In contrast, the new vaccine can be mass-produced in chicken eggs — the same kinds of eggs that produce billions of influenza vaccines every year in factories around the world.

If NVD-HXP-S proves safe and effective, flu vaccine manufacturers could potentially produce well over a billion doses of it a year. Low- and middle-income countries currently struggling to obtain vaccines from wealthier nations may be able to make NVD-HXP-S for themselves or acquire it at low cost from neighbors.

‘Overwhelming circumstantial evidence’ points to COVID-19 lab leak – YouTube

The theory COVID-19 leaked from the Wuhan Institute of virology is possibly “more likely” than the current working hypothesis due to “overwhelming” circumstantial evidence, according to the WHO advisory committee’s Jamie Metzl. It comes after the World Health Organisation released its report into the origins of the deadly virus which placed zoonotic transmission to humans the most likely source of the pandemic. The report also ranked the likelihood of different hypotheses and claimed the virus most likely transferred from bats to humans via an intermediary zoonotic source, and that a direct transmission was the second most likely. The theory the virus came from a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology was deemed to be unlikely by the report. Mr Metzl told Sky News the WHO did not conduct this investigation, but it was a “joint study of an independent advisory committee” to the World Health Organisation and their “Chinese counterparts”.

Are we entering a ‘fourth wave’ of the pandemic? Experts disagree. – The Washington Post

The data doesn’t look good. After weeks of decline, the average number of new coronavirus infections reported each day is higher than it’s been in a month. The number of people in hospitals with covid-19 has been stubbornly stagnant since mid-March. And even as highly contagious virus variants spread, state leaders are relaxing safety precautions.

By now, this is a familiar script. But this time around, the country’s leading epidemiologists disagree about what to call this latest phase of the pandemic. Is the United States on the cusp of a “fourth wave”? Or are we instead seeing the last gasps of a crisis in its 14th month?

Most recently, the debate played out on the Sunday morning news shows. Michael T. Osterholm, an adviser to President Biden’s coronavirus task force, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the next two weeks will bring “the highest number of cases reported globally since the beginning of the pandemic.”

“In terms of the United States, we’re just at the beginning of this surge,” said Osterholm, who is also the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “We haven’t even really begun to see it yet.”

… By the numbers, this latest upswing is on par with the surge of cases in July. Going into the weekend, the country was reporting more than 65,000 cases per day, a number that didn’t include several states that did not report data on the Good Friday holiday. That figure is roughly the same as last summer’s peak, when soaring case counts were alarming public health officials and overwhelming some hospitals.

On CBS’s “Face the Nation,” former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb predicted the current spikes would not amount to “a true fourth wave,” citing the number of Americans who have already been infected, plus the number of people who have been vaccinated.

Earlier in the week, Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious-disease expert, also cast doubt on the prospect of another national surge, saying vaccines are the X-factor that was absent during the first, summer and winter waves.

[editor’s note: also read Gottlieb: US won’t have ‘true fourth wave’ of COVID-19 as vaccinations increase and Doctor Rejects ‘4th Wave’ Claims, Says US Ahead of ‘Much Milder’ COVID-19 and Variants partly to blame for 4 straight weeks of increasing Covid-19 cases, CDC director says]

Pharmacies score customer data in vaccine effort. Some are crying foul. – Politico

Millions of Americans streaming through retail pharmacies to receive Covid vaccines have no choice but to hand over their personal information to those companies, raising red flags for privacy watchdogs who are pressing for oversight of how the pharmacies may use the data bonanza to boost their profits.

Pharmacy chains like CVS Health, Walgreens, Rite Aid and others are playing an increasingly larger role in the nationwide inoculation effort, as vaccines become more widely available in the coming weeks. While providing vaccinations themselves aren’t a major moneymaker for the retailers, they have been able to scoop up data on new customers that could prove to be valuable.

Many of the pharmacies require people to provide at least phone numbers or email addresses at the point of booking an appointment. Some others — including Walgreens, Sam’s Club and parent company Walmart, and Health Mart Pharmacy — require that people create online user accounts before they can search their websites for still-limited vaccine appointments.

The stores’ online appointment portals usually don’t make explicit how the companies will use the information customers are providing. Privacy watchdog groups and some members of Congress have expressed concern about whether the pharmacy chains will use that data for marketing, like selling ibuprofen or other products to deal with aftereffects of the shots. And they caution that less tech-savvy patients hunting for appointments may unwittingly join pharmacy loyalty programs that could bombard them with unexpected marketing emails and texts.

“We don’t want to see folks in their desire to get vaccinated — and frankly, protect themselves and their loved ones — be in any way taken advantage of,” said Andrew Crawford, a lawyer at the Center for Democracy and Technology.

A single shot of a nasal vaccine protected monkeys from SARS-CoV-2 infection. – Cell Reports Medicine

The deployment of a vaccine that limits transmission and disease likely will be required to end the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We recently described the protective activity of an intranasally administered chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine encoding a pre-fusion stabilized spike (S) protein (ChAd-SARS-CoV-2-S [chimpanzee adenovirus-severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2-S]) in the upper and lower respiratory tracts of mice expressing the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. Here, we show the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of this vaccine in non-human primates. Rhesus macaques were immunized with ChAd-Control or ChAd-SARS-CoV-2-S and challenged 1 month later by combined intranasal and intrabronchial routes with SARS-CoV-2. A single intranasal dose of ChAd-SARS-CoV-2-S induces neutralizing antibodies and T cell responses and limits or prevents infection in the upper and lower respiratory tracts after SARS-CoV-2 challenge. As ChAd-SARS-CoV-2-S confers protection in non-human primates, it is a promising candidate for limiting SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in humans.

More countries sign onto a “digital travel pass” developed by the International Air Transport Association. – Reuters

Singapore will next month accept visitors who use a mobile travel pass containing digital certificates for COVID-19 tests and vaccines, its aviation regulator said on Monday, becoming one of the first countries to adopt the initiative.

Singapore will accept the International Air Transport Association (IATA) mobile travel pass for pre-departure checks, where travelers can get clearance to fly to and enter Singapore by showing a smartphone application containing their data from accredited laboratories.

The pass was successfully tested by Singapore Airlines. More than 20 carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Malaysia Airlines, are also testing the pass.

“The success of our joint efforts will make IATA’s partnership with the government of Singapore a model for others to follow,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement.

[editor’s note: also read Rand Paul’s Opinion We must resist the latest COVID-era power grab: the ‘vaccine passport’]

Public trust in the CDC falls during coronavirus pandemic – EurekAlert

Public trust in the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has fallen during the coronavirus pandemic, with the decline bringing overall population-level trust in the agency to the same lower level of trust long held by Black Americans about the agency, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

Surveys done among a representative group of Americans in May and October of 2020 show about a 10% decline in trust of the CDC over that period.

In contrast, the same research found that public trust in the U.S. Postal Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency increased significantly over the period, despite those agencies facing their own challenges.

“The Biden administration will have an uphill battle in rehabilitating trust in the CDC at this critical junction in the coronavirus pandemic,” said Michael Pollard, lead author of the study and a senior social scientist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “A key challenge in the months ahead will be to identify who will be viewed as trusted messengers regarding vaccines and public health policies.”

Phase 1 clinical study of unique vaccine to protect against COVID-19 begins – News-Medical

A unique vaccine to protect against COVID-19 begins clinical testing Tuesday, 6 April, at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR), part of the U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command. Scientists developed a nanoparticle vaccine, based on a ferritin platform, which offers a flexible approach to targeting multiple variants of SARS-COV-2 and potentially other coronaviruses as well.

The vaccine, called spike ferritin nanoparticle (SpFN), stands out in the COVID-19 vaccine landscape. Its multi-faced sphere design allows repetitive, ordered presentation of the coronavirus spike protein to the immune system, a strategy that may help provide broader protection.

“Even before recent COVID-19 variants were identified, our team was concerned about the emergence of new coronaviruses in human populations, a threat that has been accelerating in recent years” said Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Branch (EIDB) at WRAIR who leads the Army’s COVID-19 vaccine research efforts and co-invented the vaccine with WRAIR structural biologist Dr. Gordon Joyce. “That’s why we need a vaccine like this: one that has potential to protect broadly and proactively against multiple coronavirus species and strains.”

Pre-clinical studies indicate that SpFN induces highly potent and broad neutralizing antibody responses against the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, as well as three major SARS-CoV-2 variants and SARS-CoV-1 virus.

CA Reports First Case of Double Mutation Variant From India – Medscape

Researchers at Stanford University have identified a case of a new coronavirus variant with two mutations, which was first detected in India last month. The variant was found in a patient in the San Francisco Bay Area, university officals announced on Saturday.

“We believe this is the first described case with this variant in the United States,” Lisa Kim, a spokeswoman for Stanford Health Care, told NBC News in a statement.

The variant has two mutations in the spike protein of the coronavirus that allows it to attach to cells. Indian health officials first detected the variant last month. The “double mutation” could be of concern if the variant is more transmissible or deadly, but health officials have not yet called it a “variant of concern.”

“There is no definite evidence that this double variant is more virulent or causes more severe disease,” Dean Winslow, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Stanford University, told NBC Bay Area.

So far, the CDC has focused on three variants of concern — B.1.1.7 first identified in the UK, B.1.351 first identified in South Africa and P.1 first identified in Brazil. The U.S. has reported more than 12,500 B.1.1.7 cases in 51 states and territories, according to the latest CDC tally updated on April 1. The CDC has also reported 323 B.1.351 cases and 224 P.1 cases.

Walgreens wasn’t following U.S. guidance on spacing Pfizer doses, but, following complaints, will do so. – New York Times

Walgreens has inoculated hundreds of thousands of Americans against Covid-19 this year using the vaccine developed by Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech. But the pharmacy chain has not been following guidance from federal health officials about the timing of second doses.

People are supposed to get two doses, three weeks apart. Walgreens, however, separated them by four weeks because that made it faster and simpler for the company to schedule appointments.

There is no evidence that separating the doses by an extra week decreases the vaccine’s effectiveness. While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends a three-week gap, the agency says it is acceptable to separate the doses by up to six weeks if necessary.

But Walgreens’s decision, which it didn’t publicly announce, confused some customers and caught the attention of federal health officials. Kate Grusich, a spokeswoman for the C.D.C., said the agency had asked Walgreens to stop using a longer-than-recommended time period between doses.

CDC updates guidance for cleaning surfaces to protect against Covid-19 – CNN

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has updated its guidance for cleaning and disinfecting facilities and homes to prevent the spread of Covid-19, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Monday during the White House Covid-19 Response Team briefing.

The science has shown that people can get infected via contaminated surfaces, but the risk is low. Regular cleaning of these surfaces with soap or detergent works. Disinfection is not necessary, Walensky said.

“Disinfection is only recommended in indoor settings, schools and homes where there has been a suspected or confirmed case of Covid-19, within the last 24 hours,” Walensky said.

In most cases, fogging, fumigation and electrostatic spraying is not recommended as a primary method of disinfection, and actually carries several safety risks.

Yellen warns that slow vaccine rollout in poor countries poses threat to U.S., global economies – Washington Post

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday called for speeding up the distribution of the coronavirus vaccine in poorer nations, arguing the U.S. and global economies are threatened by the impact of covid-19 on the developing world.

While the United States and other rich countries are hoping for a return to normalcy as soon as this fall, many parts of the developing world are not on pace to have widespread vaccination of their populations until 2023 or 2024. Those countries have largely suffered more devastating economic impacts from covid, in part because they do not have the fiscal capacity to authorize the levels of emergency spending approved in the United States.

In prepared remarks Monday to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs ahead of meetings this week of international finance officials, Yellen called on richer countries to step up both economic and public health assistance to poorer nations reeling from covid. She noted as many as 150 million people across the world risk falling into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis.

“This would be a profound economic tragedy for those countries, one we should care about. But, that’s obvious. What’s less obvious — but equally true — is that this divergence would also be a problem for America,” Yellen said. “Our first task must clearly be stopping the virus by ensuring that vaccinations, testing and therapeutics are available as widely as possible.”

Still, Yellen’s calls for a forceful global effort face significant head winds. The Biden administration has so far resisted pressure to change intellectual property rules in a way that would allow more countries to produce coronavirus vaccines. Democratic members of Congress and some global health experts have warned that refusing to do so could make it harder to vaccinate billions of people in poorer countries such as Africa and parts of South America and Asia.

UCF study shows masks, ventilation stop COVID spread better than social distancing – EurekAlert

A new study from the University of Central Florida suggests that masks and a good ventilation system are more important than social distancing for reducing the airborne spread of COVID-19 in classrooms.

The research, published recently in the journal Physics of Fluids, comes at a critical time when schools and universities are considering returning to more in-person classes in the fall.

“The research is important as it provides guidance on how we are understanding safety in indoor environments,” says Michael Kinzel, an assistant professor in UCF’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and study co-author.

“The study finds that aerosol transmission routes do not display a need for six feet social distancing when masks are mandated,” he says. “These results highlight that with masks, transmission probability does not decrease with increased physical distancing, which emphasizes how mask mandates may be key to increasing capacity in schools and other places.”

In the study, the researchers created a computer model of a classroom with students and a teacher, then modeled airflow and disease transmission, and calculated airborne-driven transmission risk.

Cruise ships won’t have to require vaccinations when they resume sailing, the C.D.C. says. – New York Times

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued long-awaited technical guidance for cruise lines on Friday, bringing them one step closer to sailing again in United States waters.

While some cruise lines operating in Europe have been requiring all passengers to be vaccinated, the C.D.C. did not go that far. Vaccination will be critical in the safe resumption of cruising, the agency said, and it recommended that all eligible port personnel, crew and passengers get a Covid-19 vaccine as soon as one becomes available to them.

By making vaccinations a recommendation instead of a requirement, the C.D.C. has avoided conflict with Florida, one of the cruise industry’s biggest bases of operations, which has banned businesses from requiring customers to show proof of vaccinations.

Cruise ships in the U.S. have been docked for over a year because of the pandemic and can only restart operations by following the C.D.C.’s Framework for Conditional Sailing Order, issued in October to ensure that cruise ships build the onboard infrastructure needed to mitigate the risks of the coronavirus.

The technical instructions will allow cruise lines to prepare their ships for simulation voyages, designed to test health and safety protocols and operational procedures with volunteers before sailing with paying passengers.

The new recommendations include increasing from weekly to daily the reporting of Covid-19 cases, implementing routine testing of all crew based on a ship’s Covid-19 status and making contractual arrangements with medical facilities on shore for passengers who may fall ill during a voyage.

Once cruise lines have prepared their ships, they must give 30 days notice to the C.D.C. before starting test cruises and will have to apply for a conditional sailing certificate 60 days before a planned regular voyage.

[editor’s note: also read Norwegian Cruise Line announces vaccine mandate for passengers]

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

India reports new record of 103,558 daily Covid cases, as second wave and new lockdowns hit

Brazil has become South America’s superspreader event

French authorities investigate whether ministers dined at secret luxury restaurants, violating restrictions

Lockdown extended in Philippines amid COVID-19 case surge

The plan for post-pandemic life in England includes free testing and Covid certificates.

Climbers return to Mount Everest, with social distancing and Covid-19 insurance.

Europe buckles down for Easter as Covid cases eclipse spring 2020 levels

UK to ease coronavirus restrictions starting April 12, prime minister says

Iran enters fourth wave of Covid-19 pandemic, health ministry says

EU official blames slow vaccine rollout on AstraZeneca supply issues

England bets on testing as a way out of lockdowns

South Korea reports 473 new coronavirus cases as health minister warns of fourth wave

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

The U.S. is averaging more than three million shots a day as of this past weekend.

Online disinformation is sowing vaccine distrust among evangelicals. Nearly half of white evangelical adults in the U.S. say they will not be vaccinated.

One chart shows which vaccine side effects you can expect based on your age, manufacturer, and dose

Officials look into reports of NCAA fan dying of COVID

How to do an airport layover safely

What we know: NHL’s newest COVID-19 crisis

Young adults are fueling an uptick in COVID-19 cases in the U.S., CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Monday, as the increasing vaccination rate of older Americans is preventing the most serious cases among seniors.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is under fire after a CBS “60 Minutes” news segment highlighted how the governor’s campaign donors were involved in the vaccine rollout. [editor’s note: the media goes after anyone they think has a chance to win the GOP Presidential election.]

The Maryland biotech firm at the center of a mix-up that ruined up to 15 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine declared late Sunday that it “continues to own and operate” the Baltimore plant where the problems occurred, even though the Biden administration has put Johnson & Johnson in charge of manufacturing there.

A “double mutant” coronavirus variant with features of the so-called California variant plus a mutation found in Brazil and South African variants has been detected in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Vaccination in pregnancy or while breastfeeding may be safe and effective — and protect the baby somewhat.

COVID-19 convalescent plasma with greater antibody levels is safe and shows promise

Women had ‘alarmingly high rates’ of mental health problems during start of the pandemic

FDA Authorizes Fuller Vials for Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine

US vaccination rate nearly five times faster than the world average

COVID-19 daily reported deaths dropped to lowest point in year on Sunday

Marjorie Taylor Greene Asks Why Obesity Not a Focus Amid COVID-19

Gayle Smith, who helped lead the U.S. response to Ebola, will run Biden’s vaccine diplomacy.

Rapid antigen tests catch the most contagious children, a study finds.

New batch of $1,400 stimulus checks includes ‘plus-up’ payments

Bar opening event in rural Illinois linked to 46 Covid-19 cases and a school closure

More than 40% of US adults and 75% of seniors have received at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose

White House says US will have enough vaccine for all Americans by end of next month

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

March 2021 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Show Improvement

March 2021 Conference Board Employment Index: Strong Job Growth Predicted

February 2021 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Decline After 9 Months Of Gains

Commercial Real Estate At A Crossroads

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