Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 5.9 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 14.0 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 63,841
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 748
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 48.4 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Americans’ Vaccination Cards May Be Only Record Of COVID Immunity – So Keep Them Safe
- Declining infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths from the coronavirus have masked an increase in more contagious forms of the coronavirus
- Virus variants are spreading in the U.S., threatening to prolong the pandemic
- Johnson & Johnson to oversee plant that ruined millions of COVID-19 doses
- US government moves AstraZeneca out of vaccine plant that suffered contamination
- Biologist Bret Weinstein says COVID-19 likely came from a lab
- How likely is Covid-19 reinfection?
- Which coronavirus vaccine has the fewest side effects?
- Blood clot cases ‘could dent faith of young women in AstraZeneca’
- Germany has let me down on COVID-19
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 48 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 48 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 48 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published two summary posts for coronavirus news over this past week:
Variant Proportions in the U.S. – CDC
Declining infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths from the coronavirus have masked an increase in more contagious forms of the coronavirus, scientists say. As of March 13, the B.1.1.7 variant, which walloped Britain and is wreaking havoc on Europe, accounted for about 27 percent of new cases nationwide, up from just 1 percent in early February.
Figure 1 below shows the estimated biweekly prevalence of the most common SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, based on >40,000 sequences collected through CDC’s national genomic surveillance since Dec 20, 2020 and grouped in 2-week intervals. Data are subject to change over time and will be updated as more data become available. Variant proportions in Figure 1 are adjusted using statistical weighting† to correct for the non-random sampling of sequencing data over time and across states and to provide more representative national estimates.
Figure 1. SARS-CoV-2 Variants Circulating in the United States, January 2 – March 13, 2021†
† Estimated weights come from laboratory data providing the number of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests and number of positive RT-PCR test results stratified by state, specimen collection date, and by genomic surveillance data source, using a survey-design-based approach. COVID-19 laboratory data sources include commercial and reference laboratories, public health laboratories, hospital laboratories, and other testing locations. Summary data that appear in the table include specimen collection dates from February 28 through March 13, 2021. Methods for sub-national estimation are being developed as more data are received.
Americans’ Vaccination Cards May Be Only Record Of COVID Immunity – So Keep Them Safe – ZeroHedge
If you have a tendency to misplace your smartphone or wallet, beware: losing your COVID vaccine card could create serious headaches for people, since the physical cards are in many case the only record that an individual was vaccinated – meaning it might soon double as a de facto passport for anybody who wants to leave their home.
As Forbes pointed out in a piece published over the weekend, some destinations, cruise lines and major sports venues are already requiring travelers to provide proof that they have been fully vaccinated against the virus. And if you’re among the ~48MM Americans who have been “fully vaccinated” (ie received either two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna jabs, or 1 dose of the JNJ jab, with at least two weeks passing since the final dose).
Anybody who loses their card is asked to return to the site where they were vaccinated, and ask for another one.
“If you do not receive a Covid-19 vaccination card at your appointment, contact the vaccination provider site where you got vaccinated or your state health department to find out how you can get a card,” according to the CDC website.
Of course, that’s easy enough if you were vaccinated at a pharmacy chain but more difficult if you had to travel cross-state or inter-state to be vaccinated at a drive-through or pop-up event.
All Covid-19 vaccination providers are required to report data within 72 hours in their state’s immunization system, so there should be a back-up record of your vaccination status there. The CDC has a list of the Immunization Information System (IIS) in each state, which is where to start if you need a replacement card and either can’t remember where you were vaccinated or have difficulty contacting the facility.
While digital vaccine passports may become a reality in the future (they’re certainly closer to reality in Europe than in the US, despite the fact that the US is further ahead in its vaccination campaign). That’s because EU members like Greece and Spain badly need to salvage this year’s tourism season, or risk serious economic blowback as the critical tourism season remains shuttered for a second year.
Johnson & Johnson to oversee plant that ruined millions of COVID-19 doses – The Hill
Drugmaker Johnson & Johnson will assume direct oversight responsibilities for an Emergent BioSolutions facility in Baltimore, Md. that was blamed for ruining as many as 15 million COVID-19 vaccine doses last week.
Reuters reported that a Johnson & Johnson official confirmed the change, which they said was facilitated by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The Hill has reached out to HHS for comment.
The company also reiterated to Reuters that it plans to fulfill its commitment to produce and ship 100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of May.
The decision by HHS represents a snub to fellow drugmaker AstraZeneca, which is also partnered with Emergent BioSolutions and was reportedly considering the facility to manufacture its own COVID-19 vaccine.
Emergent BioSolutions came under fire after Johnson & Johnson blamed it for ruining a batch of vaccines manufactured while the site’s authorization with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was still pending.
The New York Times reported that workers conflated two ingredients in the vaccines, potentially contaminating up to 15 million doses.
[editor’s note: also read Loss of 15 million Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses can be made up in weeks, expert says]
US government moves AstraZeneca out of vaccine plant that suffered contamination – CNN
The federal government has moved to stop any further risk of contamination at a Baltimore contract vaccine manufacturer where 15 million potential doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine were spoiled last month, telling rival drugmaker AstraZeneca it must move its production from the plant and find somewhere else to make its vaccine.
The Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore was making coronavirus vaccines under contract to both Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca. Last month, a batch of Johnson & Johnson “drug product” failed quality control and was taken out of production, both J&J and Emergent have said.
The federal government has directed Johnson & Johnson to fully take over its vaccine production at the plant, an administration official told CNN Saturday. The company confirmed it was taking tighter control of the production process.The Emergent BioSolutions plant, which had been making doses of both Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine as well as a vaccine made for AstraZeneca, will now only produce J&J vaccines, the official said. The Health and Human Services Department has directed that the AstraZeneca vaccine will now be produced at another plant, although the official did not specify where.
Virus variants are spreading in the U.S., threatening to prolong the pandemic. – New York Times
… it is increasingly clear that the next few months will be painful. Concerning variants of the virus are spreading, carrying mutations that make the virus both more contagious and in some cases more deadly.
Even as vaccines were authorized late last year, variants were trouncing Britain, South Africa and Brazil. New variants have continued to pop up — in California one week, in New York and Oregon the next. And as they take root, they threaten to postpone an end to the pandemic.
At the moment, most vaccines appear to be effective against the variants. But public health officials are deeply worried that future iterations of the virus may be more resistant, requiring Americans to line up for regular rounds of booster shots or even new vaccines.
“We don’t have evolution on our side,” said Devi Sridhar, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. “This pathogen seems to always be changing in a way that makes it harder for us to suppress.”
Health officials see an urgent need to expand vaccinations, which reduce transmission and therefore the virus’s opportunities to mutate. They also acknowledge the importance of tracking the variants. Already, B.1.1.7, the highly contagious variant that walloped Britain and is wreaking havoc in continental Europe, is rising exponentially in the United States.
The variant is about 60 percent more contagious and 67 percent more deadly than the original form of the virus, according to the most recent estimates. Infected people seem to carry more of the B.1.1.7 virus and for longer, said Katrina Lythgoe, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Oxford. “You’re more infectious for more days,” she said.
Limited genetic testing has turned up more than 12,500 U.S. cases, many in Florida and Michigan. As of March 13, the variant accounted for about 27 percent of new cases nationwide, up from just 1 percent in early February.
“The best way to think about B.1.1.7 and other variants is to treat them as separate epidemics,” said Sebastian Funk, a professor of infectious disease dynamics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “We’re really kind of obscuring the view by adding them all up to give an overall number of cases.”
Troubling “Eek” variant found in most Tokyo hospital COVID cases – Reuters
Around 70% of coronavirus patients tested at a Tokyo hospital last month carried a mutation known for reducing vaccine protection, Japanese public broadcaster NHK said on Sunday.
The E484K mutation, nicknamed “Eek” by some scientists, was found in 10 of 14 people who tested positive for the virus at Tokyo Medical and Dental University Medical Hospital in March, the report said.
For the two months through March, 12 of 36 COVID patients carried the mutation, with none of them having recently travelled abroad or reporting contact with people who had, it said.
Ahead of the summer Olympics scheduled to begin in July, Japan is grappling with a new wave of infections. Health experts are particularly concerned about the spread of mutant strains, even as large-scale vaccinations of the general population have not yet begun.
On Friday, 446 new infections were reported in Tokyo, although that is still well below the peak of over 2,500 in January.
First confirmed case of Indian coronavirus variant in U.S. found in California – NBC
Researchers at Stanford University said Saturday that they had found at least one case of a new coronavirus variant first detected in India in Northern California.
The new variant has two mutations, including one found in the California strain, in the spiky protein that the virus latches onto, according to Stanford Health Care spokesperson Lisa Kim. The variant was found in a patient from the San Francisco Bay Area by the school’s Clinical Virology Laboratory.
“We believe this is the first described case with this variant in the United States,” she said in an emailed statement.
The variant was first detected last month by Indian health officials, The Associated Press reported. Cases in India had been decreasing across the country since September but started to creep back up through the winter. More than 47,000 new infections were detected in a 24-hour span, including 275 deaths, in March, according to the AP.
How likely is Covid-19 reinfection? – Indian Express
In a first-of-its-kind exercise, a team of scientists from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has identified a set of most plausible cases of reinfection of SARS-CoV2 virus in India. In a study that has been accepted for publication in the journal Epidemiology & Infection, the scientists examined the cases of 1,300 individuals who had tested positive for the virus twice, and had undergone tests even between the two positive results.
The study found that the cases of 58 of the 1,300 individuals, or 4.5%, could actually be classified as possible reinfections. In these 58, the two positive results had come at least 102 days apart, and they also had a negative test result in between.
Reinfection with SARS-CoV2 is the subject of an open scientific discussion. As of now, it is not clear whether a person who has been infected once develops permanent immunity against the disease, or can get reinfected after some time. An understanding of the possibility of reinfection is crucial to the fight against the pandemic. It will not only help decide the intervention strategies required to control the spread of the disease, but also help assess how long people would have to depend on masks and physical distancing. It will have implications on the vaccination drive as well.
As of now, very few cases of reinfection have been confirmed. The first confirmed case was reported from Hong Kong in August last year. After that, a couple of cases from the United States and Belgium also emerged. There have been several cases of people testing positive for the virus multiple times, even in India, but not all such cases are considered reinfections. That is because of what is called “persistent viral shedding”. Recovered patients can sometimes continue to carry low levels of virus within their system for up to three months. These levels are no longer enough to make the person sick or transmit the disease to others, but it can get detected in diagnostic tests.
Which coronavirus vaccine has the fewest side effects? – KHON
Braxton County nurse practitioner Yvonne Staschiak, who said she’s been tracking the effects of each vaccine, said most people who get Moderna or Pfizer will have a sore arm, muscle aches and fatigue that usually go away within one to two days.
“As for Johnson and Johnson, that one is usually hitting the first day of the vaccine. We’re seeing a lot of high fevers with that one, a lot of headache and just overall not feeling well,” Staschiak said.
According to the New York Times, similar short-lived side effects have been shown to be more common after the second dose of the two-shot Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. (The J&J vaccine requires only one shot.)
But, what if you don’t have a reaction?
“Your body’s still building the immune response. Everybody is different,” Staschiak said.
Blood clot cases ‘could dent faith of young women in AstraZeneca’ – Guardian
Health officials are becoming increasingly worried that younger people will reject Covid jabs as concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine continue to grow. A total of 30 cases of rare blood clots have been linked to the jab in the UK, resulting in seven deaths. Eighteen million doses of the vaccine have been administered so far.
It is feared that younger women will be particularly anxious and may refuse to accept the vaccine because two-thirds of patients with these types of blood clots are female.
The link with blood clots, known as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, CVST, has led Germany and the Netherlands to halt giving the vaccine to people under 60. However, the European Medicines Agency has said there is “no evidence” to support such restrictions, while the World Health Organization has also urged countries to continue giving the jab.
Germany has let me down on COVID-19 – DW
Coronavirus cases are rising exponentially in Germany and pandemic control measures are in disarray. The smugness felt a year ago by some immigrants here is very much a thing of the past.
Last May, on a perfect spring evening, Germany gradually and cautiously lifted its first coronavirus restrictions. I headed to the pub with my flatmates for the first time in over two months. After seeing a picture of our enormous beers and smiling faces, a friend back home in locked-down Scotland sent me a message: “I wish I lived in Germany right now!”
It was an odd, mixed feeling familiar to many immigrants in this country last spring and summer. Of course, we were scared and worried about friends and family back home, and at the same time alarmed by those several thousand who lost their lives or were seriously ill here in Germany. But it was all tinged with a certain complacency.
During that first wave of the pandemic, as countries like the UK and the United States saw cases and death rates skyrocket, a small, smug part of my brain couldn’t help but think: Well, this is all terrible, but I’ve certainly picked the right country to live in.
A safe pair of hands
Back then, Germany had a lower death rate than many other European countries. Restrictions were tight but never as intense as in countries like France or Spain, and initially they seemed to be working. The short-term work scheme meant that I did not know anyone personally who lost their job or faced major financial losses.
And Chancellor Angela Merkel, a scientist by training, seemed a far more reliable pair of her hands to have at the wheel when compared to the tousle-haired masculine bluster of her counterparts in the US and the UK.
Things took a turn for the worse as winter arrived. From October, cases and deaths began to rise dramatically in Germany as elsewhere. But even then I remained confident.
Dangerous virus mutations were popping up everywhere, but Germany was controlling the borders, right? And heck, the first widely-approved COVID-19 vaccine had even been developed right here — by a couple of immigrants, no less!
However bad things got, I was sure I was safer here than I would be almost anywhere else in the world.
Now, at the beginning of April 2021, this feeling is just a distant memory. Germany has floundered and pussyfooted both in terms of poor decision-making about restrictions and with the vaccine roll-out. It has become painful to watch the news — but I cannot take my eyes off it.
Biologist Bret Weinstein says COVID-19 likely came from a lab – The Hill
Biologist Bret Weinstein told Hill.TV that he believes COVID-19 was likely created in a lab and that fellow scientists are telling “fairy tales” about the virus originating in nature.
Weinstein, a visiting fellow at the James Madison Program at Princeton University, said the evidence “unfortunately points toward the possibility of a laboratory leak, and that hypothesis deserves investigation.”
“We are still being told fairy tales, including by Dr. [Anthony] Fauci this last week, about other ways in which the virus could have emerged directly from nature,” said Weinstein, a former biology professor at Evergreen State College in Washington.
His remarks come on the heels of Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, telling CNN that he is “of the point of view that…the most likely etiology of this pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory.”
The virus was first detected in the Wuhan region of China.
Weinstein said he believes the mainstream science community feels pressure to find proof that the virus originated in a natural way.
Fauci, the top infectious diseases expert in the U.S. and a medical adviser to President Biden, addressed Redfield’s comments in a press conference this past week.
“Dr. Redfield was mentioning that he was giving an opinion as to a possibility. But again, there are other alternatives, others that most people hold by,” Fauci said.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
What the Pope Has Said In His Easter Message on Sunday
Australia enjoys Easter with no new local coronavirus cases
Expats struggle to get vaccines in Kuwait, citizens come 1st
‘First drop of rain’: Libya receives Russia’s Sputnik vaccine
First baby born in Spain with coronavirus antibodies, reports say
Argentina’s president tests positive for COVID-19
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
More than three million people in the U.S. are now receiving Covid vaccines each day.
Religious life in Jerusalem is edging back to normal thanks to Israel’s world-leading vaccine rollout. On Friday, crowds returned to the Old City’s streets, along with one of Christianity’s most solemn commemorations — the Good Friday procession, above, as Christians made their way down the Via Dolorosa, along which they believe Jesus hauled the cross on which he was crucified.
Brexit has ruined Easter for Britain’s fine chocolate makers, turning exports to Europe into a logistical nightmare.
How to add COVID vaccine frame to Facebook profile
Contact tracing underway in Indianapolis after Alabama basketball fan’s death
US vaccinates 4 million people in one day
CDC director walks tightrope on pandemic messaging
More than 161 million Covid-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US, according to CDC data
5 Cruise Ship Engineers Undergo 130 Coronavirus Tests To Complete Job
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Are Companies Prepared For The Vaccine-Induced Wave Of Time-Off Requests?
How European Banks Can Support The Recovery
Reasonable Seasonals? Seasonal Echoes In Economic Data After COVID-19
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 04April 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 04April 2021
America’s Scariest Charts Updated 02Apr 2021: U.S. Employment Situation
What Baseball Can Learn About COVID-19 Case Spikes And Crowd Size From The NFL’s 2020 Season
Countries Dominating Covid-19 Vaccine Production
You Can Fly! CDC Says Fully Vaccinated People Can Travel Safely Within The US
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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