Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 6.5 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 13.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 68,844
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 961
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 47.1 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Just How Much Was 2020 an Outlier for Deaths?
- The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man
- CDC announces next phase of cruise ship guidance
- A vaccine ‘fiasco’ damages Europe’s credibility
- Fauci says U.S. may not need AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine
- Don’t freak out if you get these side effects from a Covid-19 vaccine. They can actually be a good sign
- Liability Insurance Premiums Spike Across the US: AMA Report
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 47 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 47 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 47 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Just How Much Was 2020 an Outlier for Deaths? – MedPage
Setting cause aside, death numbers were “massive” compared with 2019.
No harder measure of the coronavirus pandemic’s toll exists: death from any cause rose 23% nationwide in 2020.
That meant 522,368 excess deaths from March through the end of 2020 compared with a projection from the prior 5 years, Steven Woolf, MD, MPH, of Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine in Richmond, and colleagues reported in JAMA.
It’s well above the unofficial tally of COVID-19 deaths, which reached about 339,000 deaths by the end of 2020. COVID directly accounted for about 72% of the excess mortality, Woolf’s group found.
The rest might have been “either immediate or delayed mortality from undocumented COVID-19 infection, or non-COVID-19 deaths secondary to the pandemic, such as from delayed care or behavioral health crises,” they suggested.
Notably, heart disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer disease deaths increased during surges in their data. That data came from provisional, unweighted death counts for the District of Columbia and all the states except North Carolina (due to insufficient data) from the National Center for Health Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau.
A prior analysis by the group through July 2020 had suggested a 20% increase in excess deaths for the early period of the pandemic.
Fauci says U.S. may not need AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine – Reuters
The United States may not need AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, even if it wins U.S. regulatory approval, Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease doctor told Reuters on Thursday.
The vaccine, once hailed as another milestone in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, has been dogged by questions since late last year, even as it has been authorized for use by dozens of countries, not including United States.
Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief medical adviser to the White House, said the United States has enough contracts with other vaccine makers to vaccinate its entire population, and possibly enough for booster shots in the fall.
Asked whether the United States will use the AstraZeneca vaccine doses, he said, “That’s still up in the air. My general feeling is that given the contractual relationships that we have with a number of companies, that we have enough vaccine to fulfill all of our needs without invoking AstraZeneca.”
With millions more Americans getting vaccinated every day, some have complained about fever, fatigue and other ailments they weren’t expecting.
Don’t panic, doctors say. Side effects from Covid-19 vaccines won’t last long. And they’re actually proof that your immune system is working the way it’s supposed to. (Though vaccines are still very effective even without side effects.)
Here are some of the most common side effects from Covid-19 vaccines, how you can manage them, and why you shouldn’t use them as an excuse to skip vaccination:
“The kinds of things we’re seeing are arm soreness, body aches, sometimes fatigue, sometimes even low-grade fever,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, a vaccinologist and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.After he got his second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, “I had shaking chills for a couple of hours,” Hotez said.
“And we know why this happens — because the vaccine is very potent in inducing an immune response. That’s one of the reasons why we’re getting such high levels of protection” against Covid-19.
Other side effects can include pain, redness or swelling at the injection site and possibly headache or nausea, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
How many people get side effects?
It’s not certain because millions of Americans are getting vaccinated every day, and those who do get side effects might not report them to the federal Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.
But in vaccine trials, about 10% to 15% of immunized volunteers developed “quite noticeable side effects,” former Operation Warp Speed Chief Scientific Adviser Moncef Slaoui said late last year.
“Most people will have much less noticeable side effects,” he said.
When it comes to anaphylaxis — or severe allergic reactions — “the rate is now around two to five per million,” Hotez said.
That means about 0.0005% (or less) of those who get a Covid-19 vaccine have a serious, negative response.
The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man – Atlantic
In this crowded field of wrongness, one voice stands out. The voice of Alex Berenson: the former New York Times reporter, Yale-educated novelist, avid tweeter, online essayist, and all-around pandemic gadfly. Berenson has been serving up COVID-19 hot takes for the past year, blithely predicting that the United States would not reach 500,000 deaths (we’ve surpassed 550,000) and arguing that cloth and surgical masks can’t protect against the coronavirus (yes, they can).
Berenson has a big megaphone. He has more than 200,000 followers on Twitter and millions of viewers for his frequent appearances on Fox News’ most-watched shows. On Laura Ingraham’s show, he downplayed the vaccines, suggesting that Israel’s experience proved they were considerably less effective than initially claimed. On Tucker Carlson Tonight, he predicted that the vaccines would cause an uptick in cases of COVID-related illness and death in the U.S.
The vaccines have inspired his most troubling comments. For the past few weeks on Twitter, Berenson has mischaracterized just about every detail regarding the vaccines to make the dubious case that most people would be better off avoiding them. As his conspiratorial nonsense accelerates toward the pandemic’s finish line, he has proved himself the Secretariat of being wrong:
- He has blamed the vaccines for causing spikes in severe illness, by pointing to data that actually demonstrate their safety and effectiveness.
- He has blamed the vaccines for suppressing our immune systems, by misrepresenting normal immune-system behavior.
- He has suggested that countries such as Israel have suffered from their early vaccine rollout, even though deaths and hospitalizations among vaccinated groups in Israel have plummeted.
- He has implied that for most non-seniors, the side effects of the vaccines are worse than having COVID-19 itself—even though, according to the CDC, the pandemic has killed tens of thousands of people under 50 and the vaccines have not conclusively killed anybody.
Scientists identify nine potential new COVID-19 treatments – News-Medical
A team led by scientists in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania has identified nine potential new COVID-19 treatments, including three that are already approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for treating other diseases.
The team, whose findings were published in Cell Reports, screened thousands of existing drugs and drug-like molecules for their ability to inhibit the replication of the COVID-19-causing coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. In contrast to many prior studies, the screens tested the molecules for anti-coronaviral activity in a variety of cell types, including human airway-lining cells that are similar to the ones principally affected in COVID-19.
Of the nine drugs found to reduce SARS-CoV-2 replication in respiratory cells, three already have FDA approval: the transplant-rejection drug cyclosporine, the cancer drug dacomitinib, and the antibiotic salinomycin. These could be rapidly tested in human volunteers and COVID-19 patients.
The experiments also shed light on key processes the coronavirus uses to infect different cells and found that the antiviral drug remdesivir, which has an FDA Emergency Use Authorization for treating COVID-19, does appear to work against the virus in cell-culture tests on respiratory cells, whereas hydroxychloroquine does not.
Liability Insurance Premiums Spike Across the US: AMA Report – Medscape
Liability insurance premiums are rising at a rate not seen in nearly 20 years, according to a new report from the American Medical Association (AMA).
While the report is based on premium increases that predated the COVID-19 pandemic, it cites experts who predict that the upward trend in insurance costs will continue.
These forecasts come from the actuaries who produce the Medical Liability Monitor‘s (MLM) annual survey on liability insurance costs, which provided the data for the AMA study. The research examined premium levels in select geographic areas of the United States from 2011 to 2020.
“In 2019 and 2020, the proportions of premiums that increased year-to-year reached highs not seen since the 2000s,” said the paper, which was written by Jose R. Guardado, PhD. “In 2019, this share almost doubled from 2018, and then it went up again in 2020, when more than 30% of premiums increased from the previous year.”
Specifically, the share of insurance premiums that increased in 2019 rose to 26.5% from 13.7% the previous year, the report said. In 2020, the proportion of premiums that grew increased 31.1% over the previous year.
In 2020, premium increases of 10% or more were documented in 14 states. Among these were Kentucky, where 29.6% of rate hikes exceeded 10%, South Carolina (27.8%), Maryland (18.8%), Nebraska (16.7%), Oregon (16.7%) Montana (16.7%), Georgia (14.8%), Missouri (14.8%), New Hampshire (13.3%), Illinois (11.9%), Michigan (11.6%), Texas (9.2%), North Carolina (6.7%), and Virginia (1.3%).
CDC announces next phase of cruise ship guidance – The Hill
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued guidance Friday that will eventually allow cruises to fully resume in U.S. waters, though it did not include a date for when ships will be allowed to sail.
The CDC first issued a no-sail order in March 2020 and the industry, which has been operating under a “conditional sailing order” (CSO) since late October, has been clamoring for a date to sail again.
Instead, the agency on Friday offered technical instructions about reducing the spread of COVID-19 and how to deal with outbreaks that occur at sea.
According to the CDC, this phase of the conditional sailing order will include simulated voyages that will allow crew and port personnel to practice new COVID-19 operational procedures with volunteers before sailing with passengers.
The CDC’s update includes a requirement to increase COVID-19 reporting frequency from weekly to daily. It also updates a color-coding system used to classify ships related to COVID-19 and addresses routine testing of crew based on a ship’s color status.
“Cruising safely and responsibly during a global pandemic is difficult,” the CDC said in a statement. “While cruising will always pose some risk of COVID-19 transmission, following the phases of the CSO will ensure cruise ship passenger operations are conducted in a way that protects crew members, passengers, and port personnel, particularly with emerging COVID-19 variants of concern.”
The update comes after the cruise industry last week called for CDC to allow cruises to resume from U.S. ports by the beginning of July.
A vaccine ‘fiasco’ damages Europe’s credibility. – New York Times
For decades, the European Union has sold itself not just as the best antidote to another European war, but as “the Europe that protects,” arguing that by its collective size and shared sovereignty, it will deliver a better, longer and more prosperous life to all. With its vaccine rollout in chaos, that promise now looks hollow, and risks undermining the bloc’s credibility when it comes to major challenges.
In Belgium, Alain Walravens, 63, is waiting to be invited for a first coronavirus vaccination. So are Marion Pochet, 71, a retired translator, and her husband, Jean-Marc. At least, Ms. Pochet said, they both have had Covid-19, “so we have some immunity, at least for the moment.”
All three are sharply critical of the European Union, which took control of vaccine procurement and distribution and is widely considered to have done worse than its main partners, the United States and Britain, let alone Israel, which have all gotten vaccines into a much larger percentage of their populations than Europe has.
So far, only about 11 percent of the bloc’s population has received at least one vaccine shot, compared with 47 percent in Britain and 30 percent in the United States.
As European countries lock down again in a new wave of the virus, the reputation and credibility of the European Union and its executive arm, the European Commission, are much in play.
“This is the fault of the European Union,” said Mr. Walravens, an events organizer.
[editor’s note: also read Europe’s stumbling vaccine rollout provides a lesson in EU politics]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
One example of global vaccine disparities: while the developed world expects to conclude vaccinations this summer, Vietnam thinks 80% of its population will still be waiting for shots by year-end.
Turkey began administering Pfizer-BioNTech shots. With coronavirus infections surging and Ramadan approaching, the government also recently moved to reimpose strict social distancing measures, including a prohibition on the large gatherings for meals before sunrise and after sunset that are traditional during the Muslim holy month.
San Marino, a microstate surrounded by Italy, feared being left behind in Europe’s inoculation campaign. Now it has jumped ahead, with the Sputnik vaccine sent by an unlikely, faraway friend.
Britain said it would ban international arrivals from four more countries — Bangladesh, Kenya, Pakistan and the Philippines — amid concerns over virus variants. The move, which takes effect on April 9, will bring the number of countries on Britain’s travel “red list” to 39.
Pakistan will allow residents to buy a vaccine dose rather than wait in line.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
CDC Changes Tune on COVID Guidance for Vaccinated Travelers
When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?
All in the mix: Why US COVID-19 cases rose and fell, and what comes next
The FDA will allow 11 doses to be taken from standard Moderna vaccine vials and authorized a new vial with 15 doses.
Moderna said the vaccine can now be kept 24 hours at room temperature after thawing, and doses remain good 12 hours after vials are opened.
Hyperimmune intravenous globulin flopped in a phase III trial, said the CoVIg-19 Plasma Alliance, a manufacturers’ consortium.
[Florida Governor] DeSantis issues executive order banning vaccine passportsNearly 75% of U.S. Seniors Have Gotten At Least One Dose of COVID Vaccine
Vermont Under Fire for Distributing COVID Vaccine Based on Race
The U.S. travel industry welcomes the prospective return of the vaccinated.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Cycle Dynamics In Recovery From Covid Crisis
January 2021 Coincident Indices Are Inconsistent In Their Assessment Of Economic Conditions
Why Johnson Johnson Throwing Out 15 Million COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Shouldn’t Scare You
The Myth Of The Disease-Spreading Migrant
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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