Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 16.2 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 45,552
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,260
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 42.9 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths worsened [new cases are now clearly on a worsening trend]
- WHO report says animals likely source of COVID – not a lab leak
- Comparing COVID-19 and Vaccine Death Rates
- Scientists develop test to detect the virus that causes COVID-19 even when it mutates
- COVID: Remember how we segregated smokers? It could be a lot worse for the unvaccinated
- Developing orally administrable drugs to combat SARS-CoV-2
- We Can’t End the Pandemic Without Vaccinating Kids
- An Asymmetric Recovery Awaits the Global Economy
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 42 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 42 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 42 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
‘Vaccine passports’ are on the way, but developing them won’t be easy – Washington Post
The Biden administration and private companies are working to develop a standard way of handling credentials — often referred to as “vaccine passports” — that would allow Americans to prove they have been vaccinated against the novel coronavirus as businesses try to reopen.
The effort has gained momentum amid President Biden’s pledge that the nation will start to regain normalcy this summer and with a growing number of companies — from cruise lines to sports teams — saying they will require proof of vaccination before opening their doors again.
The administration’s initiative has been driven largely by arms of the Department of Health and Human Services, including an office devoted to health information technology, said five officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the effort. The White House this month took on a bigger role coordinating government agencies involved in the work, led by coronavirus coordinator Jeff Zients, with a goal of announcing updates in coming days, said one official.
… The passports are expected to be free and available through applications for smartphones, which could display a scannable code similar to an airline boarding pass. Americans without smartphone access should be able to print out the passports, developers have said.
Other countries are racing ahead with their own passport plans, with the European Union pledging to release digital certificates that would allow for summer travel.
U.S. officials say they are grappling with an array of challenges, including data privacy and health-care equity. They want to make sure all Americans will be able to get credentials that prove they have been vaccinated, but also want to set up systems that are not easily hacked or passports that cannot be counterfeited, given that forgeries are already starting to appear.
One of the most significant hurdles facing federal officials: the sheer number of passport initiatives underway, with the Biden administration this month identifying at least 17, according to slides obtained by The Washington Post.
[editor’s note: guess this Washington Post article is incorrect, It’s not the federal government, but “the private sector” that will likely create and store data for Covid-19 vaccine passports, Andy Slavitt, the White House’s senior adviser for Covid-19 response, said on Monday. ]
We Can’t End the Pandemic Without Vaccinating Kids – New York Times
The United States’ coronavirus vaccine rollout has finally hit its stride, with well over two million doses administered daily. Soon, vaccines will be available to all adults who want them.
Children are the next vaccination frontier. When it comes time to vaccinate them, the same urgency and large-scale coordination efforts driving adult vaccination must continue if we want to sustainably drive down Covid-19 cases and ultimately end the pandemic.
Currently, vaccine demand among adults exceeds the supply. But there’s reason to worry that once children are eligible, vaccination rates for them will initially be far lower and rise more slowly than those seen among adults. Children are much less likely than adults to be hospitalized with Covid-19, and deaths from the disease among kids are rare. Parents may wonder, if Covid-19 is relatively harmless for my children, what’s the hurry?
One reason to vaccinate children quickly is that even a small number of critical Covid-19 cases among children is worth vaccinating against. The burden of long-term effects from Covid-19 in children — including rare but serious cases of inflammatory syndrome — remains unclear, especially since many have asymptomatic infections that go undiagnosed.
But the most important and least recognized reason to vaccinate all children quickly is the possibility that the virus will continue to spread and mutate into more dangerous variants, including ones that could harm both children and adults.
WHO report says animals likely source of COVID – AP
A joint WHO-China study on the origins of COVID-19 says that transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is “extremely unlikely,” according to a draft copy obtained by The Associated Press.
The findings offer little new insight into how the virus first emerged and leave many questions unanswered, though that was as expected. But the report does provide more detail on the reasoning behind the researchers’ conclusions. The team proposed further research in every area except the lab leak hypothesis.
The report is being closely watched since discovering the origins of the virus could help scientists prevent future pandemics — but it’s also extremely sensitive since China bristles at any suggestion that it is to blame for the current one. Repeated delays in the report’s release have raised questions about whether the Chinese side was trying to skew its conclusions.
“We’ve got real concerns about the methodology and the process that went into that report, including the fact that the government in Beijing apparently helped to write it,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a recent CNN interview.
China rejected that criticism Monday.
“The U.S. has been speaking out on the report. By doing this, isn’t the U.S. trying to exert political pressure on the members of the WHO expert group?” asked Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian.
The report is based largely on a visit by a WHO team of international experts to Wuhan, the Chinese city where COVID-19 was first detected, from mid-January to mid-February.
In the draft obtained by the AP, the researchers listed four scenarios in order of likelihood for the emergence of the coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2. Topping the list was transmission from bats through another animal, which they said was likely to very likely. They evaluated direct spread from bats to humans as likely, and said that spread through “cold-chain” food products was possible but not likely.
COVID: Remember how we segregated smokers? It could be a lot worse for the unvaccinated – USA Today
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 62% said unvaccinated people should not be allowed to travel on airplanes. Furthermore, 55% believed that unvaccinated people should not exercise in public gyms, sit in movie theaters or attend concerts.
And 72% said it was important to know if people nearby (and certainly within six feet) were vaccinated.
When it came to avoiding those who could cause them potential ill, non-smokers had it much easier than the vaccinated will.
Smokers self-identified the second they fired up an unfiltered Camel. Non-smokers could easily evacuate the infected area or, if they’d had a little too much to drink in the non-smoking section of the bar, grab the cigarette and stub it out in an overly exaggerated way.
But what are the vaccinated to do when, after restrictions are lifted, a person no more than 6 feet away sneezes, and into their hands rather than their elbow?
Or worse, they cough through a loosely held fist, propelling aerosolized droplets past 6 feet?
Will it require some sort of pass?
You could demand to see a vaccine card, but that could lead to charges and surely a viral TikTok video labeled #vaccinHated. Or worse, given how masks divided the nation between those acting responsibly and those fighting for freedom.
That’s why it will be up to the vaccinated to display their health status in public.
Israel is already ahead of the game with its “green pass,” first issued in February. Consider it akin to Monopoly’s “Get out of jail free” card, only it gets you into the best places in the coolest bars and restaurants.
Comparing COVID-19 and Vaccine Death Rates – Mercola
Using Our World in Data’s statistics,7 as of March 5, 2021, 55.55 million Americans had received at least one dose. (Another graph shows that as of March 5, 28.7 million Americans were considered fully vaccinated, having received all prescribed doses. However, since side effects can occur after the first dose, I will use that statistic.)
Dividing reported deaths, 1,551, by the number of people having received at least one dose, 55,550,000, we end up with a reported lethality rate of 0.0028%. If only 10% of adverse events are reported to VAERS, we’re looking at approximately 15,510 deaths and a lethality rate of 0.028%.
If only 1% are reported, there may be around 155,100 deaths, and vaccines may be killing 0.28% of all who get them. Again, while any and all deaths following COVID-19 vaccination are supposed to be reported, it’s still unclear whether mandatory reporting is actually taking place.
While 0.0028% or even 0.28% might not seem like a shockingly high percentage of deaths, it’s hard to justify even a single death of a young and healthy individual. For comparison, the overall noninstitutionalized infection fatality ratio from COVID-19, for all age groups, is 0.26%. Those under 40 have only a 0.01% risk of dying from COVID-19 if infected.8
As of right now, the vaccine may not match or exceed the lethality of COVID-19 itself, but we’re only three months into the vaccination campaign. According to NPR,9 21.7% of the U.S. population had received at least one vaccine dose as of March 16, 2021.
There are compelling reasons to suspect these vaccines may contribute to death further down the line, perhaps months or a few years into the future. Those ending up with permanent disability as a result of these vaccines will be at increased risk of early death, for example, and there’s no telling how these vaccines might impact the longevity of children.
If premature death occurs a year or more down the line, it’s unlikely that anyone will suspect it being connected to the vaccine. Right now, even deaths that occur within 24 hours in people who were young and in good health are chalked up to coincidence, which is truly remarkable.
Comparing COVID-19 Vaccines With Flu Vaccines
Another way to judge the lethality of COVID-19 vaccines is to compare it to seasonal flu vaccines which, by the way, used to account for a majority of vaccine injuries. As reported by The Vaccine Reaction:10
“The death rate following COVID mRNA vaccination is much higher than that following influenza vaccination. The CDC’s data allows only a ballpark estimation of the rate of deaths following flu vaccination. In the 2019-2020 influenza season the CDC reports that 51.8 percent of the U.S. population received a vaccine, which is approximately 170 million people.
VAERS reports that in the calendar year 2019 (not the 2019-2020 influenza season) there were 45 deaths following vaccination. To provide context, in 2018 VAERS reports 46 deaths, and in 2017 it reports 20 deaths.
The 45 deaths in 2019 are occurring at a rate of 0.0000265% when calculated using the number of vaccines given in the 2019-2020 influenza season. As of Feb. 26, 47,184,199 COVID vaccinations had been given with 1,136 deaths reported following vaccination, which is approximately a rate of .0024%.”
An Asymmetric Recovery Awaits the Global Economy – The Conference Board
As the COVID-19 pandemic gradually subsides economies around the world will continue to recover, but at very different rates. According to The Conference Board’s Global Economic Outlook, economies in North America and Asia are likely to recover more rapidly than those in other parts of the world due to a variety of factors.
In Asia, the recovery is already complete for several key economies, including China. Effective containment of the virus and a surge in exports helped drive their rapid rebound. Meanwhile, the US economy is steadily recovering due to an accelerating vaccination campaign, and robust fiscal and monetary support. Unfortunately, much of the rest of the world is still struggling. Europe deployed less stimulus than the US and continues to wrestle with the virus and inoculating its population. Emerging Markets in MENA, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa will recover more slowly due to a variety of factors including oil prices, access to vaccines, and demand from wealthier economies.
Scientists develop test to detect the virus that causes COVID-19 even when it mutates – EurekAlert
A team of scientists led by Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) has developed a diagnostic test that can detect the virus that causes COVID-19 even after it has gone through mutations.
Called the VaNGuard (Variant Nucleotide Guard) test, it makes use of a gene-editing tool known as CRISPR, which is used widely in scientific research to alter DNA sequences and modify gene function in human cells under lab conditions, and more recently, in diagnostic applications.
Since viruses have the ability to evolve over time, a diagnostic test robust against potential mutations is a crucial tool for tracking and fighting the pandemic. Over its course so far, thousands of variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have arisen, including some that have spread widely in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil .
However, the genetic sequence variations in new strains may impede the ability of some diagnostic tests to detect the virus, said NTU Associate Professor Tan Meng How, who led the study.
In addition to its ability to detect SARS-CoV-2 even when it mutates, the VaNGuard test can be used on crude patient samples in a clinical setting without the need for RNA purification, and yields results in 30 minutes. This is a third of the time required for the gold standard polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, which requires purification of RNA in a lab facility.
The team of scientists led by NTU hopes that the VaNGuard test can be deployed in settings where quickly confirming COVID-19 status of individuals is paramount.
Developing orally administrable drugs to combat SARS-CoV-2 – News-Medical
Researchers in China have reported the successful design and synthesis of two antiviral compounds that target the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)’s main protease, essential in virus replication.
These compounds can inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in mice through oral administration and represent a key step forward in developing alternate anti-SARS-CoV-2 therapies.
The researchers published the findings from their study in the Science Magazine.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Doctors in Paris warn of “catastrophic overload” of COVID cases that could overwhelm hospitals.
Travelers stuck in Mexico after positive COVID tests
Single Sputnik V vaccine dose elicits robust immune response in previously infected individuals
Johnson & Johnson strikes deal to deliver up to 400 million vaccines to African Union
Hong Kong says it will end ban on travelers from Britain and ease other restrictions.
Nepal turns from India to China for help resuming vaccinations.
Italian prime minister hopeful EU will achieve herd immunity by end of July
Balkan countries flock to Serbia for Covid-19 vaccinations
Slovenia to go into another lockdown in April
Mexico receives first shipment of AstraZeneca vaccines from the US
India sees 6th day of record-high case numbers since last year
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New coronavirus cases ticked up in the U.S. last week, particularly in Michigan and the Northeast. Hospitalizations and deaths may continue to fall, because many people with the highest risk of severe illness have been vaccinated.
Dr. Deborah Birx, President Donald Trump’s pandemic coordinator, suggested on CNN that Trump’s restrained response may have cost thousands of lives.
Fed program slow to decide COVID-19 injury claims
COVID-19 vaccines: A visual comparison
While 143 million vaccine doses have been administered across the nation, the CDC says 180 million have been distributed, a 37 million disparity. The U.S. pace of about 2.5 million shots a day is picking up, with 3.5 million doses administered on Saturday and 3.4 million on Friday. Even at 3.5 million daily inoculations, it would take more than 10 days to clear a 37 million backlog.
NJ to supply up to 400M doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Africa
Florida left farmworkers out of COVID response
Against the odds, Cuba could become a coronavirus vaccine powerhouse
Moderna announced Monday that it had shipped its 100 millionth dose to the U.S. government.
The most recent CDC data shows 180,646,465 vaccine doses have been distributed in the U.S. so far, with almost 80% of those doses administered.
Déjà vu all over again: New York and New Jersey are once again the states with the most new COVID infections per capita.
If you spent more than 7.5% of your adjusted gross income on personal protective equipment last year, congratulations! You may be able to deduct it from your taxes.
Agence France Press‘s fact-check department calls out a Texas doctor for spreading misinformation about COVID-19 vaccinations and touting hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin as treatments.
Humanigen released topline results from a phase III trial of its GM-CSF inhibitor, lenzilumab, indicating it prevented hospitalized COVID patients from needing mechanical ventilation.
Boerhavia diffusa possess potential therapeutic properties against COVID-19
Rare genetic variant may explain severe COVID-19 in young healthy male patients
Scientists seek Covid treatment answers in cheap, older drugs
CDC extends coronavirus eviction ban through June 30
Spring Break COVID Surge as Florida Infections Rise After Crowds Arrive
Florida’s Median Age for COVID-19 Infections Drops to 35
Texas COVID Cases Drop to Record Low After Mask Mandate Lifted
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
March 2021 Texas Manufacturing Index Accelerates Sharply
Did Dealers Fail To Make Markets During The Pandemic?
Hourly And Weekly Perspectives On Wage Growth During The Pandemic
2021 Olympics: Should Japan Pass The Torch?
After COVID-19, We Need A New Social Guarantee
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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