Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 2.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 25.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 55,621
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 650
• U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 37.8 % of the population
• The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths improved
• COVID Cases Rising in 21 States But Texas, Mississippi and Florida Not Among Them
• U.S. health officials question results from AstraZeneca’s vaccine trial, less than a day after they’re released.
• AstraZeneca Admits Vaccine Efficacy Based On “Interim” Data, Vows To Release Update Within 48 Hours
• The U.S. may not need AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine
• Vaccine mystery: Why J&J’s shots aren’t reaching more arms
• Antibody-drug cuts COVID-19 death risk by 70 percent
• Rare genetic variant puts some younger men at risk of severe COVID-19
• The prolonged immune response may contribute to post-COVID-19 blood clots
• Can covid make your ears ring? What we know about its possible connection to tinnitus.
• As the second batch of $1,400 stimulus payments arrives this week, some Social Security and other federal beneficiaries are left out

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.

Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?

Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:

• the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 37 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 37 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
• it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 37 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
• The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
• It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Rare genetic variant puts some younger men at risk of severe COVID-19 – EurekAlert

A study of young men with COVID-19 has revealed a genetic variant linked to disease severity.

The discovery, published recently in eLife, means that men with severe disease could be genetically screened to identify who has the variant and may benefit from interferon treatment.

For most people, COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, causes only mild or no symptoms. However, severe cases can rapidly progress towards respiratory distress syndrome.

“Although older age and the presence of long-term conditions such as cardiovascular disease or diabetes are known risk factors, they alone do not fully explain differences in severity,” explains first author Chiara Fallerini, Research Fellow in Medical Genetics at the Department of Medical Biotechnologies, University of Siena, Italy. “Some younger men without pre-existing medical conditions are more likely to be hospitalised, admitted to intensive care and to die of COVID-19, which suggests that some factors must cause a deficiency in their immune system.”

Recent research has suggested that genes controlling interferon are important in regulating the immune response to COVID-19. Interferon is produced by immune cells during viral infection. It works alongside molecules on the surface of immune cells called Toll-like receptors (TLR) which detect viruses and kickstart the immune response. “When a recent study identified rare mutations in a TLR gene, TLR7, in young men with severe COVID-19, we wanted to investigate whether this was an ultra-rare situation or just the tip of the iceberg,” says co-senior author Mario Mondelli, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the Division of Clinical Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo and University of Pavia, Italy.

U.S. health officials question results from AstraZeneca’s vaccine trial, less than a day after they’re released. – New York Times

Federal health officials said early Tuesday that results from a U.S. trial of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine may have relied on “outdated information” that “may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data,” casting doubt on an announcement on Monday that had been seen as good news for the British-Swedish company as well as the global vaccination drive.

In a highly unusual statement released after midnight, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said that the data and safety monitoring board, an independent panel of medical experts under the National Institutes of Health that has been helping to oversee AstraZeneca’s U.S. trial, had notified government agencies and AstraZeneca late Monday that it was “concerned” by information the company had released that morning.

The institute urged AstraZeneca to work with the monitoring board “to review the efficacy data and ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as quickly as possible.”

AstraZeneca did not immediately return a request for comment early Tuesday.

In a news release on Monday announcing the results of the U.S. trial, the company said that the vaccine it developed with the University of Oxford was 79 percent effective against Covid-19, a higher figure than observed in previous trials, and completely prevented the worst outcomes from the disease. The long-anticipated results were seen as encouraging global confidence in the vaccine, which was shaken this month when more than a dozen countries, mostly in Europe, temporarily suspended the shot’s use over concerns about possible rare side effects. After conducting a review, Europe’s top drug regulator said last week that the shot was “safe and effective.”

AstraZeneca Admits Vaccine Efficacy Based On “Interim” Data, Vows To Release Update Within 48 Hours – ZeroHedge

As the media (and the rest of the world) tries to figure out what exactly is going on with the AstraZeneca trial data, and whether the vaccine’s ability to protect the population from COVID truly does outweigh the risks, the company has just released a statement promising to release up-to-date results from the final phase of the trial within 48 hours.

AZ said yesterday’s trial conclusions were based on an “interim analysis” with all data received by the cutoff date of Feb. 17. Then, it promised to “immediately engage with the independent data safety monitoring board to share our primary analysis with the most up to date efficacy data.” Results of this primary analysis will be available within 2 days.

The numbers published yesterday were based on a pre-specified interim analysis with a data cut-off of 17 February.

We have reviewed the preliminary assessment of the primary analysis and the results were consistent with the interim analysis. We are now completing the validation of the statistical analysis.

We will immediately engage with the independent data safety monitoring board (DSMB) to share our primary analysis with the most up to date efficacy data.

We intend to issue results of the primary analysis within 48 hours.

More academics complained about the optics of the situation.

“The last thing this vaccine needs is more concern when we kind of thought we were at that point now where we would put to bed all the other concerns,” said Paul Griffin, an associate professor of medicine at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, who is conducting clinical studies in Australia on four Covid-19 vaccine candidates.

The efficacy rate in the US trial was stronger than the 70% figure AstraZeneca reported from an earlier study. But those data were an average of different readings (62% and 90%) from two separate arms of the study. Bottom line: Whatever the ‘final’ efficacy number is, it should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

To that point, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nominal head of the NIAID, insisted that, in all likelihood, the AstraZeneca jab is “very likely a very good” vaccine. This is presumably just another in a seemingly endless stream of hiccups.

As a second batch of $1,400 stimulus payments arrives this week, some Social Security and other federal beneficiaries are left out – Washington Post

The Treasury and the IRS say to start watching your bank accounts and the mail because a second batch of stimulus payments is due to start arriving this week.

In this second distribution, a large number of payments also will be mailed in the form of a check or prepaid debit card, which will be identified as an economic impact payment or EIP card.

The IRS is making approximately 17 million direct deposits with a payment date of March 24 and is beginning to mail about 20 million checks and debit cards, according to a banking industry official.

The payments began processing last Friday and may have shown up as a pending or provisional deposit, the IRS said. “Additional payments anticipated on a weekly basis going forward,” the agency said.

What’s unclear is the timing of stimulus relief payments to some people who receive federal benefits such as Social Security retirement or Supplemental Security Income (SSI). As with previous rounds, their payments are sent automatically. However, many people are complaining on social media that they were not included in these initial distributions of payments.

“Federal benefits recipients who filed a tax return in 2020 or 2019 or who used the Non-Filers tool to register last year are automatically receiving EIP3 payments if they’re eligible,” Treasury officials said in an email.

ederal recipients who don’t fall into those categories are seeing a delay in receiving an economic impact payment.

[editor’s note: also read Some Social Security beneficiaries are still waiting for $1,400 stimulus checks]

Vaccine mystery: Why J&J’s shots aren’t reaching more arms – Politico

Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot Covid vaccine was supposed to be the catalyst for the country’s return to normal. Instead, it’s sparking confusion and finger-pointing between the states and the Biden administration over why millions of doses are sitting unused.

Almost three weeks after the Food and Drug Administration authorized the shots, no one appears to be able to explain why immunizations are lagging. Some states are thought to be intentionally holding back shots, while others say it takes time to inoculate populations like the homebound.

Over the course of the past two weeks, senior Biden administration officials have met privately to try and determine what happened. Two senior administration officials believe states are conserving their J&J supplies until there’s enough to reach underserved communities and specific groups, like teachers or the disabled. But multiple state officials say they’re using whatever they get as soon as they get it.

What is clear is that around 2.3 million of the 4.3 million doses of the vaccine delivered have actually been administered. Between 140,000 and 200,000 doses have made it into people’s arms in recent days, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The bumpy J&J rollout highlights the challenges the White House still faces ensuring a timely and steady administration of Covid-19 vaccines with President Joe Biden eyeing July 4 as “Independence Day” from the virus. Because it takes just two weeks to achieve immunity with the J&J shot — compared with five or six weeks for two-dose shots from Pfizer and Moderna, respectively — the absence of enough “one and done” vaccinations has a ripple effect, slowing the overall pace of the rollout.

Biden administration officials had repeatedly warned the initial J&J deployment would be rocky, since there was only a limited supply of shots available in the opening weeks. Problems could also be compounded by reporting lags. But they expect the distribution to smooth out when more of the vaccine becomes available at the end of this month.

“You can’t distribute the vaccine equitably if there aren’t enough doses to distribute,” one senior health official said.

The U.S. may not need AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine – Axios

Public health experts are divided over whether the U.S. should add AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine to its arsenal, or let the rest of the world have it.

Why it matters: By the time the AstraZeneca vaccine is authorized for distribution, the U.S. may already have more than enough supply. Meanwhile, most of the world is still waiting for shots.

What we’re watching: It will take another month or so for the AstraZeneca vaccine to be available for use in the U.S., following the company’s announcement yesterday that the two-dose regimen was 79% effective at preventing symptomatic illness.

• “The gap between supply and demand is closing considerably, and I think by the time we get to May, that gap will be closed,” NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said.
• “At most, you’ll get a small percentage of Americans vaccinated with AstraZeneca, and it won’t speed up vaccinations, because by May, supply will not be the constraint,” said Ashish Jha, the dean of public health at Brown University.

The other side: Angela Rasmussen, a virologist with Georgetown’s Center for Global Health Science and Security, said she thinks the AstraZeneca vaccine will be useful in rural parts of the country where cold storage is a challenge.

The big picture: Monday’s announcement is good news for the rest of the world, which is relying heavily on the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Prolonged immune response may contribute to post-COVID-19 blood clots – EurekAlert

Serious complications due to blood clots, such as heart attacks and strokes, that are experienced by some COVID-19 survivors may be caused by a lingering immune response in the blood vessels after recovery, suggests a study published today in eLife.

The findings may help explain why some COVID-19 survivors, so-called ‘long-haulers’, report lasting COVID-19 symptoms or why some experience strokes or heart attacks weeks or months after recovery. They may also suggest potential strategies to help prevent these complications.

“During the initial stages of infection, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may attack the lining of the blood vessels which can trigger inflammation and an immune response. This can result in blood vessel damage in the short term,” explains first author Florence Chioh, Research Assistant at the Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMedicine), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. “For our study, we wanted to investigate what happens in the blood vessels of COVID-19 survivors over the longer term.”

Chioh and colleagues collected blood samples from COVID-19 survivors within a month of their recovery and discharge from the hospital. They found that, in comparison with healthy individuals, COVID-19 survivors have twice as many damaged blood vessel cells, called circulating endothelial cells, floating in their blood. Even more of these damaged blood vessel cells were found in survivors who had conditions such as hypertension or diabetes that can also damage the blood vessels.

In addition to signs of blood vessel damage, the team found that survivors had an abundance of inflammatory proteins called cytokines that are produced by immune cells. They also found unusually high numbers of immune cells called T cells, which help destroy viruses, despite the fact that the virus was already gone.

Pfizer starts early stage trial for oral COVID-19 drug – The Hill

Pfizer on Tuesday said it has begun early stage U.S. clinical trials of an investigational, oral antiviral drug for COVID-19.

According to the company, the candidate “has demonstrated potent in vitro antiviral activity” against the virus that causes COVID-19, as well as activity against other coronaviruses, suggesting the potential for use to address future threats.

The candidate is a class of drug known as a protease inhibitor, which has been long used used to treat HIV and hepatitis C. The drugs work by blocking a critical enzyme, a protease, that the virus needs to replicate.

“Tackling the COVID-19 pandemic requires both prevention via vaccine and targeted treatment for those who contract the virus. Given the way that SARS-CoV-2 is mutating and the continued global impact of COVID-19, it appears likely that it will be critical to have access to therapeutic options both now and beyond the pandemic,” Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer, said in a statement.

Dolsten said the drug candidate could be prescribed at the first sign of infection, without requiring that patients are hospitalized or in critical care.

Pfizer is also testing an intravenously administered investigational protease inhibitor for patients who are hospitalized with COVID-19.

Can covid make your ears ring? What we know about its possible connection to tinnitus. – Washington Post

Though early research and anecdotal reports have documented tinnitus and sudden hearing loss in some covid-19 patients, audiologists emphasized that there is no conclusive evidence connecting the virus to the onset or worsening of tinnitus.

The condition is “one of those things that is just so variable in every single person,” said Eldré Beukes, an audiologist and research fellow at Anglia Ruskin University in the United Kingdom, who has published research on how individuals with tinnitus have been affected by the pandemic. In the United States, more than 50 million people experience some form of tinnitus, which is often linked to hearing loss. About 20 million struggle with a chronic condition, while 2 million have extreme and debilitating cases, according to the American Tinnitus Association.

“There are at least 200 reasons” why people may develop tinnitus or feel like their existing condition is worsening, Beukes said, including factors related to hearing damage as well as stress and mental health conditions. “Some people do just get tinnitus that’s seemingly out of the blue.”

Beukes and other experts say it’s critical for people with tinnitus to understand the condition and be aware that there are a variety of evidence-based treatments that can provide relief. People should “not accept that their quality of life has to go down because they have tinnitus,” Beukes said. “There is hope and there are things that they can do to live the life they want to live.”

COVID-19 vaccines reduce virus transmission in healthcare worker case study – News-Medical

Overall, among the non-vaccinated household members of vaccinated healthcare workers, there was an observed 30% reduction in documented cases 14 days post-vaccination, and a non-significant reduction in hospitalizations. Even within 1-7 days following the first dose of the vaccine, both healthcare workers and their non-vaccinated household members exhibited fewer new SARS-CoV-2 infections. However, the group suggests this may be the product of bias introduced by the already-ill avoiding vaccination centers.

As the non-vaccinated household members of healthcare workers can also obtain infections from other sources, besides the healthcare worker with which they coinhabit, the 30% reduction in transmission could, in fact, be a severe underestimation. The group attribute around half of these cases to sources other than the coinhabiting healthcare worker, based on previous estimates, and thus the true drop in transmission is estimated to be around 60% having received a single dose of the vaccine. Vaccination lessens the asymptomatic carriage of SARS-CoV-2, as has been demonstrated in some phase III clinical studies, which provides a reasonable explanation behind the observed drop in transmission.

COVID Cases Rising in 21 States But Texas, Mississippi and Florida Not Among Them – Newsweek

Texas and Mississippi lifting their statewide mask mandates was chalked up to “neanderthal” thinking by President Joe Biden, but in the weeks following the easing of restrictions, the two states haven’t yet seen a massive spike in COVID-19 cases.

At least 21 states are seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases, but Texas and Mississippi aren’t among them, and neither is Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis has been criticized for the lack of statewide restrictions. With masks commonly believed to be one of the easiest preventative measures against COVID, it’s possible that the lack of a spike in cases is attributable to people still being hesitant to gather and the increase in vaccinations.

“I do think vaccinations are playing a role, and I think one of the take-homes is it’s not an all-or-none phenomenon,” Dr. Daniel Havlichek, former chief of the College of Human Medicine’s Infectious Diseases Division at Michigan State University, told Newsweek. “It’s not like until you’re at 70 percent you’re not making any progress. I think you’re getting value from vaccines all along.”

… Given that people could see symptoms more than a week after contracting COVID, it takes about two weeks’ worth of data to gauge the impact that restrictions or the easing of them have on case levels. Texas has yet to hit that mark—as the mask mandate lifted officially on March 10—but so far, the Lone Star State has not seen a large spike in cases, according to a Johns Hopkins University tracker.

Neither Mississippi nor Texas have had particularly impressive rollouts of the vaccine and rank near the bottom of states with regard to vaccines administered per 100,000 people. Florida fared better with regard to vaccinations, and CDC data shows that the Sunshine State had similar results regarding cases and deaths as California, where Governor Gavin Newsom implemented one of the first stay-at-home orders.

Antibody drug cuts COVID-19 death risk by 70 percent – The Hill

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced Tuesday that its COVID-19 antibody treatment has proven in a clinical study to sharply reduce the risk of hospitalization or death among patients who test positive for the virus.

The company announced on its website that a trial involving more than 4,500 patients indicated that Regeneron’s treatment reduced both risks by 70 percent.

The drug cocktail was also effective in shortening recovery time from two weeks to 10 days, according to the company’s findings.

All of the 4,567 patients involved in Regeneron’s study had at least one risk factor that put them at a heightened risk of hospitalization or death from the disease, such as obesity or heart conditions, according to the company’s website.

“With approximately 60,000 newly diagnosed individuals in the U.S. every day and 40,000 still in the hospital because of COVID-19, we are committed to working with the government, healthcare providers and others to support rapid and widespread adoption of REGEN-COV in appropriate patients,” Regeneron’s president, George Yancopoulos, said in a news release.

[editor’s note: also read Study results strengthen the case for using Regeneron’s antibody cocktail in high-risk Covid patients.]

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

European stocks slide as Germany extends COVID-19 lockdown to mid-April

Crude oil prices enter correction territory with Germany facing ‘new pandemic’

A Korea-based company EyeGene Inc. has recently developed a liposome-based mRNA candidate vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which contains full-length spike protein of the European variant (D614G) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as a vaccine antigen.

Swiss research shows clusters of SARS-CoV-2 infection are rare within school classes

Russia wrapped up clinical trials for its single-dose “Sputnik-Light” coronavirus vaccine

Russian President Vladimir Putin gets his coronavirus vaccine

Phase I/II data showed that Sinovac Biotech’s COVID-19 vaccine was safe and generated immune responses in kids and adolescents, the China-based company said.

‘Basically In A New Pandemic,’ Says Merkel, As Germany Extends Lockdown

Residents of England who travel abroad without a valid reason will be fined 5,000 pounds, or $6,900, under coronavirus regulations that are scheduled to come into force on Monday if lawmakers approve.

India’s commercial hub plans a testing blitz after cases rise worryingly.

India to open Covid-19 vaccinations for all individuals over age 45

Sao Paulo state registers record-breaking death toll over 24 hours

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy remains unchanged

Some people who recovered from Covid say their sense of smell remains distorted.

Some Nations Could Wait Years for Covid Shots. That’s Bad for Everyone.

Investors poured record $56.8B into stock-market funds as stimulus checks arrived

COVID-19 antibodies can protect against reinfection for at least eight months

Study suggests SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in breast milk are robust, neutralizing and durable

An exciting new study that appeared recently on the bioRxiv* server describes a specific inhibitor of the virus found in an extract of the common dandelion that could provide a new and fruitful avenue of drug research.

Poor Survival With COVID in Patients Who Have Had HSCT

UK Variant Can Make Pets Very Sick

Less Sleep, More Burnout Linked to Higher COVID-19 Risk: Study

Higher COVID-19 Risk for Physicians With Sleep TroublesNo SARS-CoV-2 Variants Escape All Types of Antibodies, So Far

FDA Grants EUA to COVID Screening Device for Asymptomatic People

California’s SARS-CoV-2 variant is now responsible for 52% of the state’s cases (which have been steadily falling overall), as well as 41% of those in Nevada and 25% in Arizona.

New numbers show that 43% of Americans ages 65 and older are fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

More than one in five residents have been fully vaccinated in two states – New Mexico and Alaska

Biden administration not confident Johnson & Johnson will meet 20 million vaccine goal by end of month

Fully vaccinated people should feel free to visit their unvaccinated family and friends without restrictions — but visits should be limited to one unvaccinated household at a time. And sorry, but even fully vaccinated grandparents should not be bringing their grandkids to church or otherwise exposing them to crowds

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

March 2021 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves

February 2021 Headline New Home Sales Significantly Slow

Post-COVID Reopening Plans Survey: 100% Will Require Masks, 3% Will Mandate Vaccines 79% Will Keep Remote Options

Infographic Of The Day: The History Of Pandemics

Halting Vaccine Rollout: Is Allowing Harm Worse Than Doing Harm?

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