Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 1.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 24.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 34,217
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 444
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 37.2 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Hormone drugs may disarm COVID-19 spike protein and stop disease progression
- SARS-CoV-2 variants develop resistance against type I interferons
- Toronto researchers develop a rapid low-cost method to measure COVID-19 immunity
- Will you need a COVID-19 ‘vaccine passport’ to travel? Here’s what they are and how they might work
- The majority of cancer patients with COVID-19 have a similar immune response to people without cancer
- A rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout backfired in some US states
- Plus, lots of additional headlines
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 37 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 37 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 37 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Majority of cancer patients with COVID-19 have similar immune response to people without cancer – EurekAlert
Most people with cancer who are infected by the novel coronavirus produce antibodies at a rate comparable to the rest of the population–but their ability to do so depends on their type of cancer and the treatments they’ve received, according to a new study by researchers at Montefiore Health System and Albert Einstein College of Medicine. The findings, published online today in Nature Cancer, may lead to better care for cancer patients, who face a heightened risk of dying from COVID-19, and suggests that cancer patients should respond well to COVID-19 vaccines.
“We conducted the study out of our concern that cancer patients who develop COVID-19 may not benefit from the same degree of antibody protection as people without cancer, given that many are immuno-compromised,” said Astha Thakkar, M.B.B.S., a Montefiore hematologic oncology fellow and first author of the paper. “Our findings provide assurance that most people with cancer are able to mount an antibody response to the coronavirus that is similar to the general population. People with a history of cancer are likely as protected from reinfection as those without a history of disease and are likely to respond well to vaccines, according to our study.”
AstraZeneca Claims Strong COVID Vax Efficacy in U.S. Trial – MedPage
Topline results from an interim analysis of AstraZeneca’s phase III U.S. trial for its COVID-19 vaccine showed 79% efficacy against symptomatic illness, the company announced Monday morning.
No diminution in effectiveness was seen among participants 65 and older, with an efficacy value of 80%. Efficacy against severe disease and hospitalization was 100%.
Moreover, the firm said, the trial’s data safety monitoring board “found no increased risk of thrombosis or events characterised by thrombosis among the 21,583 participants receiving at least one dose of the vaccine.”
The board looked specifically for cases of cerebral venous thrombosis — the events that have cast a pall over AstraZeneca’s vaccine in Europe — and found none, the company said.
Data on 32,449 participants, randomized 2:1 to the vaccine or placebo, were included in the analysis. A total of 141 cases of symptomatic COVID-19 were recorded. About 80% of participants were white, 22% were classified as Hispanic, 8% were Black, and 8% were Asian or Native American. Efficacy “was consistent” among these groups, AstraZeneca said.
And that was the extent of hard data reported in the company’s press release. It did not indicate the time frame for dosing and follow-up, stratification of results by sex, nor effectiveness against virus variants of concerns such as B.1.1.7 or B.1.351 (the U.K. and South African strains, respectively).
[editor’s note: also read Newly released U.S. trial data and reassurances from European regulators and WHO aside, AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine won’t have an easy ride to FDA authorization.]
European Scientists Zero In On AstraZeneca Blood Clot Link – NPR
Two teams of European scientists, working independently, say they believe they’ve identified the cause of a rare blood clotting condition that has occurred in some people after receiving the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.
If correct, their research could mean any blood clots that occur could be easily treated.
There were reports earlier this month of roughly 30 blood clots occurring after vaccination, a few of them fatal. This led more than a dozen European countries to suspend their use of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Most countries resumed using it, however, after the European Medicines Agency conducted an investigation and declared on Thursday that the AstraZeneca vaccine is safe and effective. The EMA said the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the potential risks — and pointed out that the rate of post-vaccine blood clots was actually lower than the expected rate in the general population.
Now, a group of German researchers, led by professor Andreas Greinacher at the University of Greifswald, said on Friday in a statement that they believe the AstraZeneca vaccine, in some cases, prompts overactivation of platelets in the blood, which can then cause potentially deadly clots. They said it’s similar to what happens with a condition called heparin-induced thrombocytopenia.
Greinacher and his colleagues analyzed the 13 cases of cerebral blood clots reported in Germany following the administration of roughly 1.6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine in that country. Of the 13 cases, 12 were women, and all the cases occurred between four and 16 days after the shot was administered. The EMA had also noted that almost all the reported clotting incidents were in women under the age of 55.
Greinacher and his colleagues say that in four of the patients, they were able to isolate and identify the specific antibodies that provoke the immune reaction leading to the cerebral blood clots.
While Greinacher and his colleagues were studying the cases in Germany, researchers at the Oslo University Hospital were investigating three post-vaccination blood clots in Norway. All the Norwegian cases were health care workers under the age of 50. One of them has since died.
Professor Pål Andre Holme told the Norwegian newspaper VG that he’s confident they’ve identified antibodies prompted by the vaccine that caused an overreaction by the immune system leading to the blood clots.
“Our theory that this is a strong immune response that most likely comes after the vaccine,” Holme said. It’s the same theory that Greinacher and his colleagues have put forward in Germany.
“There is no other thing than the vaccine that can explain this immune response,” he said.
A rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout backfired in some US states – AP
Despite the clamor to speed up the U.S. vaccination drive against COVID-19 and get the country back to normal, the first three months of the rollout suggest faster is not necessarily better.
A surprising new analysis found that states such as South Carolina and Florida that raced ahead of others to offer the vaccine to ever-larger groups of people have vaccinated smaller shares of their population than those that moved more slowly and methodically, such as Hawaii and Connecticut.
The explanation, as experts see it, is that the rapid expansion of eligibility caused a surge in demand too big for some states to handle and led to serious disarray. Vaccine supplies proved insufficient or unpredictable, websites crashed and phone lines became jammed, spreading confusion, frustration and resignation among many people.
“The infrastructure just wasn’t ready. It kind of backfired,” said Dr. Rebecca Wurtz, an infectious disease physician and health data specialist at the University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health. She added: “In the rush to satisfy everyone, governors satisfied few and frustrated many.”
The findings could contain an important go-slow lesson for the nation’s governors, many of whom have announced dramatic expansions in their rollouts over the past few days after being challenged by President Joe Biden to make all adults eligible for vaccination by May 1.
Will you need a COVID-19 ‘vaccine passport’ to travel? Here’s what they are and how they might work – USA Today
It is documentation that shows a traveler has been vaccinated against COVID-19 or recently tested negative for the virus that causes the disease.
The information is stored on a phone or other mobile device that the user shows to airline employees and border officers. The Biden administration and others want a paper version available, too.
Who is designing them?
The trade group for global airlines, the International Air Transport Association, is testing a version it calls Travel Pass. IBM is developing another, called a Digital Health Pass. There are several other private-sector initiatives.
Some countries are getting involved and using the passports beyond air travel. Israel is using a new “green passport” to ensure that only people who have been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 can attend public events such as concerts. Denmark expects to launch a pass that will let vaccinated people travel with fewer restrictions.
… Where would vaccine passports be required?
Vaccine passports would be most common on international flights. Some countries already require proof of vaccination for diseases such as yellow fever, and the United States now requires a negative coronavirus test to enter the country, so a digital health passport isn’t much of a leap.
What are the risks of a vaccine passport program?
The available COVID-19 vaccines are most effective at preventing serious illness, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility that vaccinated travelers could still spread the virus.
“I think we have enough evidence right now to say that these vaccines cut transmission, that vaccinated people are much less likely to transmit the disease,” says Ashish Jha, dean of the public health school at Brown University. “How much? We don’t know.” He estimates it’s about 80%.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still recommends against travel even as the agency has relaxed other guidelines for people who have been vaccinated.
[editor’s note: also read Vaccine passports raise questions of equity, security, and privacy]
Toronto researchers develop rapid low cost method to measure COVID-19 immunity – EurekAlert
New test can accurately detect coronavirus antibodies in a drop of blood in less than an hour.
Igor Stagljar made his career building molecular tools to combat cancer. But when the pandemic hit last March, he aimed his expertise at a new adversary, SARS-CoV-2.
Stagljar is a professor of biochemistry and molecular genetics in the Donnelly Centre for Cellular and Biomolecular Research at U of T’s Temerty Faculty of Medicine. Last spring, with support from U of T’s Toronto COVID-19 Action Fund, his team began developing a new method for measuring immunity to coronavirus in those who recovered from COVID-19.
They are now ready to reveal their creation — a pinprick test that accurately measures in under one hour concentration of coronavirus antibodies in blood. And it’s cheap, costing a toonie or about tenth of the cost of the market gold standard.
Their method has been published in a study out today in the journal Nature Communications.
“Our assay is as sensitive, if not better than any other currently available assay in detecting low levels of IgG antibodies, and its specificity, also known as false-positive rate, is as good as the best antibody test on the market,” said Stagljar who collaborated with public health agencies and blood banks from across Canada to have the test validated on blood samples taken from former COVID-19 patients.
Serological tests detect antibodies, protein molecules in blood that recognize and neutralize Sars-CoV-2 to prevent infection. Such tests are seen as a key tool for public health experts wanting to measure population immunity to be better able to manage the ongoing pandemic.
SARS-CoV-2 variants develop resistance against type I interferons – News-Medical
A study conducted at the University of Colorado and National Institutes of Health, USA, has revealed that the resistance developed by newly emerging variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) against host interferon responses could serve as a potential driving force for viral evolution. The study also highlights that the enhanced lethality of emerging variants could be associated with their ability to evade interferon-mediated innate immune responses. The study is currently available on the bioRxiv* preprint server.
… The findings revealed a range of antiviral activities of 17 types of IFNs against five viral isolates, with IFNλ subtypes (type III IFNs) showing the weakest effect and type I IFNs showing the highest effect. Among various type I IFNs, the most potent antiviral activity was observed for IFNα8, IFNβ and IFNω. All tested IFNs showed comparable antiviral efficacy against the D614G variant of SARS-CoV-2.
Using an IFN-sensitive reporter cell line, the scientists observed a correlation between type I IFN receptor signaling and antiviral activities of IFNα subtypes against the viral lineages A and B. However, they did not observe any such correlation for the lineages B.1, B.1.351, and B.1.1.7.
The scientists generated a heat map to thoroughly investigate the antiviral activities of 14 type I IFNs against five viral isolates. Using an ancestral lineage (Germany/BavPat1/2020) as a reference, they observed that all newly emerging viral variants developed 17 to 122-fold resistance against type I IFNs. The isolate belonging to the B.1.1.7 lineage displayed the highest type I IFN resistance. By conducting similar experiments using the USA-WA1/2020 strain as a reference, they observed 25 to 322-fold higher resistance for newly emerging viral variants.
Hormone drugs may disarm COVID-19 spike protein and stop disease progression – EurekAlert
Hormone drugs that reduce androgen levels may help disarm the coronavirus spike protein used to infect cells and stop the progression of severe COVID-19 disease, suggests a new preclinical study from researchers in the Abramson Cancer Center at the University of Pennsylvania and published online in Cell Press’s iScience.
Researchers show how two receptors–known as ACE2 and TMPRSS2–are regulated by the androgen hormone and used by SARS-CoV-2 to gain entry into host cells. Blocking the receptors with the clinically proven inhibitor Camostat and other anti-androgen therapies prevented viral entry and replication, they also showed in lab studies.
The findings provide more insight into the molecular mechanisms of the virus but also support the use of anti-androgen therapies to treat COVID-19 infections, which are currently being investigated in clinical trials and have produced promising results. They also support data showing increased mortality and severity of disease among men compared to women, who have much lower levels of androgen.
“We provide the first evidence that not only TMPRSS2, which is known to be regulated by androgen, but ACE2 can also be directly regulated by this hormone,” said senior author Irfan A. Asangani, PhD, an assistant professor of Cancer Biology in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. “We also show that the SARS-CoV-2 spike relies on these two receptors to impale and enter cells, and that they can be blocked with existing drugs. That’s important b
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan contracts coronavirus two days after first vaccine dose
Something poisoned more than 650 people in India amid the pandemic. The cause is a mystery.
Denmark over the weekend reported another case of serious illness and one death from blood clots and cerebral hemorrhage after AstraZeneca vaccine shots.
The U.S. benefited from not worrying about pharma profiteering in the pandemic, said Paul Krugman in a New York Times op-ed explaining how Europe got into its current COVID vaccine mess.
Brazilians Think COVID-19 Outbreak Out of Control, Most Fear Infection: Poll
Cuba Approves Second Homegrown COVID Vaccine for Late Phase Trials
Europe Could Reach Herd Immunity by July; U.S. Has No Established Timeline
U.K. Hits Milestone With Half of Adults Receiving a Dose of COVID Vaccine
India battles a second wave of infections along with vaccine skepticism.
The U.A.E. offers a third dose of Chinese vaccine to some with low immune response
Putin, who put off getting vaccinated for months, says he will get a shot on Tuesday.
The International Chamber of Shipping is warning that global supply chains are at risk if seafarers don’t have access to vaccines, according to a legal document seen by CNBC expected to be published this week
Venezuela will receive two Cuban vaccine candidates in April
Jordan reports highest number of Covid-19 deaths since start of pandemic
Police break up street party in France attended by 6,500 people
Merkel seeks lockdown extension as German cases rise
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Michigan tops the list of likely next COVID-19 hotspots.
Analysis casts doubt on Florida’s vaccination success story.
A New York appeals court upheld the state’s law disallowing religious exemptions from vaccination requirements.
The Covid-19 pandemic severely impacted the mental health of young people, with increased levels of clinical depression being identified, a new study published in the journal Psychiatry Research reports. A decrease in alcohol consumption was also identified amongst young people during the pandemic.
Researchers based at the University of Missouri, in partnership with U.S. government science facilities in Maryland, have reported that individuals severely infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may be able to continue shedding infectious viral RNA for over three weeks after the symptomatic infection has passed.
Adding to its long list of health benefits, new research finds antiviral activity from green tea. In a new study, one of its ingredients, epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG), blocked severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from binding to human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors and can subsequently prevent infection of human lung cells. This action was also observed in the SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC).
IRS says more stimulus payments to hit bank accounts Wednesday
1.5 million US air passengers fly in a day for first time since last March
Krispy Kreme giving away free donuts to vaccinated Americans
Royal Caribbean Boycott Calls as Only Vaccinated Adults Allowed on Cruises
Miami Beach, overwhelmed by spring break, extends its emergency curfew.
Microsoft announces a move back to the office for some workers.
Now a very small study using objective measures — weight measurements from Bluetooth-connected smart scales — suggests that adults under shelter-in-place orders gained more than half a pound every 10 days.
TurboTax, H&R Block update software to handle $10,200 unemployment tax break
New cases of Covid-19 are once again on the rise across more than half of the United States and the recent drop in hospitalizations is slowing, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warned Monday.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
February 2021 Headline Existing Home Sales: Rate Of Growth Slows
February 2021 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Declined
EU Vaccine Rollout Severely Lags Behind
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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