Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 4.8 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 15.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 57,083
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 751
• U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 32.6 % of the population
• The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths worsened
• WHO Points To Wildlife Farms In Southern China As Likely Source Of Pandemic
• Ocugen plans to sell 100 mln Indian vaccine doses in U.S. in 2021
• The U.K. coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) is not only more transmissible but is also deadlier, according to British researchers
• Mask wearing does it decrease transmission of COVID-19?
• AstraZeneca Vaccine Unfairly Under Fire Over Clot Risk?
• Second-wave COVID mortality dropped markedly in (most) wealthier zones
• Non-invasive skin swab samples are enough to quickly detect COVID-19, a new study finds
• White House races to blunt potential Covid-19 surge
• Nasal Covid Vaccine Candidate In Early Stage Of Development

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.

source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.

Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?

Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:

• the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 32 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 32 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
• it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 32 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
• The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
• It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Nasal Covid Vaccine Candidate In Early Stage Of Development – NDTV

An intranasal vaccine candidate (BBV154), being developed by Bharat Biotech, is in early clinical stage of development in India, Minister of State for Health Ashwini Choubey told the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.

Mr Choubey was responding to a question on the status of launching a nasal vaccine for COVID-19.

Most vaccines are administered by injection through intramuscular or subcutaneous route. But, intranasal vaccines are administered as a nasal spray and offer a needle-free approach for vaccine administration, Mr Choubey said in a written reply.

Europe’s vaccine mess – New York Times

It is the latest sign of the power of the Covid-19 vaccines: The number of new cases is declining, often sharply, in countries that have vaccinated a large share of residents.

That’s the situation in Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Britain. Cases are also declining in the U.S., which is not as far along as those three countries but is well ahead of most.

And on the other end of the spectrum is the European continent.

Across most of the European Union, vaccine rollout has been slow, and new cases are surging. Europe — the first place where the coronavirus caused widespread death — is facing the prospect of being one of the last places to emerge from its grip. My colleague Jason Horowitz writes from Rome: “Governments are putting exhausted populations under lockdown. Street protests are turning violent. A year after the virus began spreading in Europe, things feel unnervingly the same.”

As Eyck Freymann and Elettra Ardissino write in Foreign Policy: “Spring in the European Union is going to be dismal.” Bild, a German newspaper, recently ran the headline “Liebe Briten, We Beneiden You!” — a mixture of German and English that means “Dear Brits, We Envy You!” Wolfgang Münchau of Eurointelligence has said that Europe’s vaccination program rivals the continent’s budget austerity of recent years as “the E.U.’s worst policy error during my lifetime.”

Why has Europe done so poorly? There are three main reasons.

1. Too much bureaucracy
While the U.S. and other countries rushed to sign agreements with vaccine makers, the E.U. first tried to make sure all 27 of its member countries agreed on how to approach the negotiations. Europe chose “to prioritize process over speed and to put solidarity between E.U. countries ahead of giving individual governments more room to maneuver,” Jillian Deutsch and Sarah Wheaton write for Politico Europe.

The result was slower regulatory approval of the vaccines and delayed agreements to buy doses, forcing Europe to wait in line behind countries that moved faster.

2. Penny-wise and pound-foolish

Europe put a big emphasis on negotiating a low price for vaccine doses. Israeli officials, by contrast, were willing to pay a premium to receive doses quickly. Israel has paid around $25 per Pfizer dose, and the U.S. pays about $20 per dose. The E.U. pays from $15 to $19.

The discounted price became another reason that Europe had to wait in line behind other countries.

3. Vaccine skepticism
“Europe is the world’s epicenter of vaccine skepticism,” Deutsch and Wheaton of Politico Europe write. That skepticism predated Covid, and now its consequences are becoming clear.

[editor’s note: also read Halting a key vaccine across Europe weakens an already faltering rollout. and EU health commissioner urges countries to use all vaccine doses after some suspend use of AstraZeneca shot]

Mask wearing does it decrease transmission of COVID-19? – Canadian Government

Forty-nine studies were identified: one randomized controlled trial (RCT); 15 observational studies; 27 ecological studies; and six reviews.

• The RCT (DANMASK-19) reported insignificant results for mask usage (OR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.54-1.23, p=0.33), likely due to low adherence in the mask group, poor control for household transmission, and low levels of community masking during the study.
• All 15 observational studies showed decreased transmission with mask use, although it was not always statistically significant. One longitudinal study of serial surveys in the United States found an increased odds of transmission control with every 10% increase in mask use. Cluster investigations found a protective effect in those who wore masks. In one study of two hairstylists who had become COVID positive but had consistently worn masks, no secondary cases were found in 139 clients.
• In the ecological studies, n=26/27 studies demonstrated that face mask policies were associated with a decrease in COVID-19 infections and deaths.
  • In nine studies, the decrease in COVID-19 infections attributed to the mask policy ranged from 3.2%-48%.
  • One study from Canada demonstrated that mask policies in Ontario resulted in a 25%-31% weekly reduction in COVID-19 cases starting two weeks after implementation.
  • Three studies assessed the mandated use of masks in all workplaces and found a decrease in COVID-19 infections and deaths, although the results were not consistent.
  • Only one study showed no significant impact with a mask policy when it was implemented under lock down conditions.
• Of the six reviews, the most recent systematic review and meta-analysis with a high AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews) rating found that wearing a mask significantly reduced the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (OR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21-0.69, I2=54.1%).
• There is currently a paucity of evidence on effectiveness of mask use in school settings.

Conclusion: This body of evidence suggests that mask use does decrease transmission in the community when adherence levels are good and when masks are worn in accordance with public health guidance.

[editor’s note: Mandating masks was associated with a decrease in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. Allowing on-premises restaurant dining was associated with an increase in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 41-100 days after implementation and an increase in daily death growth rates 61-100 days after implementation.]

The U.K. coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) is not only more transmissible but is also deadlier, according to British researchers. – Nature

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant first detected in the UK in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than preexisting variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity. Here we analyse a dataset linking 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 COVID-19 deaths in England from 1 September 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because of mutations in this lineage preventing PCR amplification of the spike gene target (S gene target failure, SGTF1). Based on 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% CI 39-72%) higher after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, care home residence, local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55-69-year-old male increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% CI 0.8-1.0%) within 28 days after a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate a 61% (42-82%) higher hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than preexisting SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.

WHO Points To Wildlife Farms In Southern China As Likely Source Of Pandemic – NPR

A member of the World Health Organization investigative team says wildlife farms in southern China are the most likely source of the COVID-19 pandemic.

China shut down those wildlife farms in February 2020, says Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist with EcoHealth Alliance and a member of the WHO delegation that traveled to China this year. During that trip, Daszak says, the WHO team found new evidence that these wildlife farms were supplying vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan with animals.

Daszak told NPR that the government response was a strong signal that the Chinese government thought those farms were the most probable pathway for a coronavirus in bats in southern China to reach humans in Wuhan.

Those wildlife farms, including ones in the Yunnan region, are part of a unique project that the Chinese government has been promoting for 20 years now.

“They take exotic animals, like civets, porcupines, pangolins, raccoon dogs and bamboo rats, and they breed them in captivity,” says Daszak.

[editor’s note: this post is worth a full read]

Ocugen plans to sell 100 mln Indian vaccine doses in U.S. in 2021 – Reuters

Ocugen Inc plans to sell 100 million doses of India’s state-backed COVID-19 vaccine in the United States this year, the U.S. firm’s chief executive Shankar Musunuri told Reuters on Monday.

Musunuri said Ocugen, a Pennsylvania-based biopharmaceutical firm, was aiming to launch the Indian-developed vaccine in the United States in the second quarter of 2021, initially with imported shots before beginning production there.

The United States has already authorised COVID-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson for emergency use.

India’s two-dose COVAXIN has been found to be 81% effective in an interim analysis of late-stage trial data on some 26,000 people in India, its developers Bharat Biotech and the state-run Indian Council of Medical Research said this month.

Bharat Biotech says as many as 40 countries are interested in COVAXIN and it has already sought emergency approvals in Brazil and the Philippines. Cracking the U.S. market would be a significant milestone for the company and India’s vaccine industry, which is the world’s largest.

Musunuri said Ocugen had held initial talks with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and planned to seek emergency use authorisation in April.

“They’re fine with the way the interim analysis is being done,” Musunuri said, adding that Ocugen had “a regulatory path” to take the process forward.

Musunuri said COVAXIN had the potential to work against COVID-19 variants and Ocugen could initially focus on children as it was likely to be safe for those over the age of 12, while shots produced by other drugmakers targeted adults.

B.C. biotech company seeks emergency approval for COVID-19 nasal spray treatment – CTV

A B.C. [British Columbia, Canada] biotech firm says it has developed an effective treatment for anyone who’s contracted COVID-19, and is now seeking federal approval for emergency use of the product.

Following months of clinical trials, Vancouver-based SaNOtize says its nasal spray has been found to reduce COVID-19 levels by 95 per cent within 24 hours, and more than 99 per cent in under three days.

“When you use the nasal spray, it really kills the virus in the nose, and reduces the viral load,” said Dr. Gilly Regev, who co-founded SaNOtize with Dr. Chris Miller.

During testing, COVID-19 patients in Canada and the U.K. self-administered the nasal spray. When treated quickly enough, the virus was killed before it could spread to the lungs, according to the startup. Miller said using the spray could mean milder symptoms and a potentially quicker recovery for anyone with COVID-19.

“You get exposed, you test positive, and you take this. Within a day, or two days, or maximum four days, you’re back out on the street,” he told CTV News.

The nasal spray contains nitric oxide, which is known to act as a disinfectant and is produced naturally in humans. No one reported any side effects during the nasal spray’s trial phase.

The developers say it can be used worldwide, as an added layer of protection against COVID-19.

“It will be another tool in your toolbox. Just like you have your hand sanitizer and your mask, you will have your nasal spray. The idea is that it’s not instead of the vaccine, it’s to augment the vaccine,” explained Regev.

Testing also found the spray works against the COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7 that originated in the U.K.

“We believe this will also be effective against all other variants,” added Miller.

AstraZeneca Vaccine Unfairly Under Fire Over Clot Risk? – MedPage

Thromboembolic and bleeding risk has been cited by a number of countries in halting use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, but the company and health agencies argued against a causal link.

Denmark and Norway were first to stop administering AstraZeneca’s vaccine last week over isolated cases of bleeding, blood clots, and low platelet count. Others followed.

Germany and France on Monday became the latest to announce a pause in administration. Germany cited seven cases of cerebral vein thrombosis among patients getting one of the 1.6 million AstraZeneca shots given there so far. German Health Minister Jens Spahn call this a “very low risk” but above average if confirmed to be linked to the vaccine.

Norwegian public health officials over the weekend reported three more cases of blood clots or brain hemorrhages in 30- to 40-year-olds after vaccination, which spurred Ireland to join in. The Netherlands jumped in over the weekend, pointing to its own 10 cases of serious events, including possible thrombosis or embolism but no thrombocytopenia.

Italy and Austria have banned certain batches of the vaccine after isolated sudden deaths and thrombotic events in recently-inoculated people.

In a statement released Sunday, AstraZeneca said it has seen no evidence of increased risk of pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, or thrombocytopenia either overall or for specific age groups, genders, batches, or particular countries.

It said there had been 15 deep vein thrombosis (DVT) events and 22 pulmonary embolism (PE) cases reported among the some 17 million recipients of its vaccine in the European Union and U.K. as of March 8.

“This is much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population of this size and is similar across other licensed COVID-19 vaccines,” it said.

[editor’s note: also The U.S. has agreed to buy up to 500,000 extra doses of AstraZeneca’s experimental antibody-based Covid-19 combination therapy, Reuters reported.]

Second-wave COVID mortality dropped markedly in (most) wealthier zones – EurekAlert

Wealthier northeastern US states and Western European countries tended to have significantly lower mortality rates during second-wave COVID-19 infections, new research from the University of Sydney and Tsinghua University has shown. However, the pattern was not as general as expected, with notable exceptions to this trend in Sweden and Germany.

Researchers say mortality change could have several explanations:

• European first-wave case counts were underestimated;
• First-wave deaths disproportionately affected the elderly;
• Second-wave infections tended to affect younger people;
• With some exceptions, lower mortality rates occurred in countries with more socialised and equitable health systems.

Non-invasive skin swab samples are enough to quickly detect COVID-19, a new study finds – EurekAlert

Researchers at the University of Surrey have found that non-invasive skin swab samples may be enough to detect COVID-19.

The most widely used approach to testing for COVID-19 requires a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, which involves taking a swab of the back of the throat and far inside the nose.

In a paper published by Lancet E Clinical Medicine, chemists from Surrey teamed up with Frimley NHS Trust and the Universities of Manchester and Leicester to collect sebum samples from 67 hospitalised patients – 30 who had tested positive for COVID-19 and 37 who had tested negative. The samples were collected by gently swabbing a skin area rich in sebum – an oily, waxy substance produced by the body’s sebaceous glands – such as the face, neck or back.

[editor’s note: Researchers at the University of Rhode Island have developed a new COVID-19 test that will soon be put into use across its campuses as a screening and surveillance tool for the COVID-19 virus. The saliva-based test is less invasive than many of the traditional nasal swab tests in use, and researchers say it is sensitive, specific, and can deliver results at a lower cost.]

White House races to blunt potential Covid-19 surge – CNN

The White House is racing to prevent and prepare for a potential fourth coronavirus surge as more transmissible coronavirus variants spread across the US — investing billions of dollars to boost coronavirus preparedness, accelerating the pace of vaccinations and working to prepare the public and governors for the prospect of another surge.

In what would be a first, the White House is drawing up plans to surge vaccines to emerging hotspots in an attempt to blunt the virus’s trajectory and protect those at highest risk, two senior administration officials told CNN.

While the number of daily coronavirus cases continues to decline and more than 2 million Americans are now being vaccinated daily, the White House Covid-19 response team has been preparing for the worst.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Sweden and Luxembourg pause use of AstraZeneca vaccine

Portugal joins other European countries in suspending AstraZeneca vaccinations

No consensus on AstraZeneca vaccine safety: Germany and France now suspending shots, Canada calling it safe and the WHO saying links to serious side effects have not been proven.

EU drug regulator backs AstraZeneca vaccine

Italy Seizes Nearly 400K AstraZeneca Doses, Investigates After Man Dies

Venezuela will not approve use of AstraZeneca vaccine

Slovenia temporarily suspends AstraZeneca vaccine

WHO Urges World Not to Halt Vaccinations as AstraZeneca Shot Divides Europe

Hong Kong’s Tough COVID-19 Rules See Babies Isolated, Families Cramped in Tiny Spaces

Papua New Guinea sounds the alarm on surging coronavirus cases.

China approves a fourth COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use

Kremlin: Pressure on countries to refuse Russian COVID-19 vaccine ‘quite unprecedented’

Prime minister of Estonia tests positive for COVID-19

SLOW walkers are almost four times more likely to die from COVID-19, and have over twice the risk of contracting a severe version of the virus, according to a team of researchers from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Leicester Biomedical Research Centre led by Professor Tom Yates at the University of Leicester.

As Europe experienced its enormous second wave of the COVID-19 disease, researchers noticed the mortality rate — progression from cases to deaths — was much lower than during the first wave.

Chinese embassies in a rapidly growing number of countries, including the United States, have begun requiring that foreigners entering China must first be fully inoculated with a Chinese-made coronavirus vaccine if they want to avoid extensive paperwork requirements.

Iraq reported their highest daily Covid-19 cases since the start of the pandemic on Tuesday, the Ministry of Health said.

France is seeing signs of a “third wave” in pandemic, prime minister says

South African regulator grants provisional approval for Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Schools weighing whether to seat students closer together

This was Texas’ first weekend without Covid-19 limits. Here’s how it went for business owners

Influenza vaccination was associated with a 15%-24% lower odds of severe COVID-19 outcomes. The current UK influenza vaccination programme needs urgent expansion as an integral component of the ongoing response plans to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moderna said it had started a phase I trial for a “next generation” vaccine.

Experts and officials fear hundreds will descend on popular spring break sites, ignoring social distancing and masking guidelines.

Duke University students in on-campus housing was ordered to quarantine for a week after hundreds became infected.

New COVID cases nationally among both nursing home staff and residents dropped by more than 80%, respectively, from late December to mid-February, according to CMS data.

Moderna Gives First Vaccine Shots To Young Kids As Part Of COVID-19 Study

CDC Looks At Whether 3 Feet — Instead Of 6 — Is Safe For Schools’ Social Distancing

The number of US adults who have contracted the novel coronavirus could be twice the number reflected in the official case count, according to a study published Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA.

Money, Talent Flowing Into mRNA Sector After COVID-19 Success

How Well Do COVID Vaccines Protect After Organ Transplant?

Six NCAA Referees Sent Home From March Madness Over COVID-19

While some medical procedures require patients to fast beforehand, experts say that vaccination for COVID is not one of them.

UFC president Dana White confirmed the event will be held in front of 15,000 fans in Jacksonville, Florida on April 24.

Quarter of Americans Never Socialized or Exercised Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

As President Biden pushes to vaccinate as many Americans as possible, he faces deep skepticism among many Republicans, a group especially challenging for him to persuade.

Tens of millions of people will receive theirs on Wednesday, March 17, according to the National Automated Clearing House Association (Nacha) which governs the direct deposit process for many banks and credit unions in the U.S. That’s the settlement date the IRS selected for the first wave of funds. The payments should be available to taxpayers by 8:30 a.m., per Nacha. Some financial institutions have made funds available prior to that date, which has led to some confusion among people who are eager to receive their money.

The Senate plans to confirm Isabel Guzman to lead the Small Business Administration as the Biden administration rolls out another round of coronavirus relief.

It’s been one year since President Donald Trump announced his administration’s “15 days to slow the spread” campaign, asking Americans to stay home for about two weeks in an effort to contain the coronavirus.

The “scale and scope” of FEMA’s Covid-19 funeral assistance program is unprecedented, official says

All US states have fully vaccinated at least 10% of their adult population, CDC data shows

Miami Beach is seeing crowds “that want to just let loose in ways that are unacceptable,” mayor says

More people flew in the last 5 days than in the 5 days after Christmas, TSA data shows

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

January 2021 Business Inventories Normal For Times Of Economic Expansion

February 2021 Headline Industrial Production Declines Due To Weather

February 2021 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Grows To +3.0%

Headline Retail Sales Stumbles in February 2021

January 2021 CoreLogic Single-Family Rents: Sharp Rise in Single-Family Rents from a Year Earlier

America’s Vaccine Rollout

Sewage-Testing Robots Process Wastewater Faster To Predict COVID-19 Outbreaks Sooner

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