Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 10.6 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 21.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 38,222
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 564
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 32.0 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths worsened
- Mental health crisis affecting young people needs immediate attention, report says
- AstraZeneca finds no evidence of increased blood clot risk from vaccine
- More evidence severe Covid-19 can affect brain function
- What We Know About COVID Vaccines and Fertility in Women and Men
- Pandemic side effect: America’s backed up ports
- Virus tolls similar despite governors’ contrasting actions
- Immigrants in ICE detention face high risks in COVID-19 pandemic
- In severe COVID, cytokine “hurricane” in lung attracts damaging inflammatory cells
- Where is my third stimulus check? IRS updates ‘Get My Payment’ tool with information on new COVID payments
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge But Unfortunately No Longer Updated Daily
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 32 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 32 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 32 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Where is my third stimulus check? IRS updates ‘Get My Payment’ tool with information on new COVID payments – USA Today
You can now find out when your next stimulus payment is expected to hit your bank account or get mailed.
The IRS updated the “Get My Payment” tool on its website with information on the third round of stimulus checks Saturday, agency spokesperson Karen Connelly confirmed to USA TODAY. Check for your status at www.irs.gov/coronavirus/get-my-payment.
The agency had said Friday the tool was expected to be available on Monday.
The third round of Economic Impact Payments will be based on a taxpayer’s latest processed tax return from either 2020 or 2019. That includes anyone who used the IRS non-filers tool last year, or submitted a special simplified tax return.
Pandemic side effect: America’s backed up ports – AXIOS
The historic backup at America’s ports — critical entry points for sneakers or Peloton bikes — is having a boomerang effect on companies and shoppers.
Why it matters: The port chaos may get worse. More stimulus checks are coming down the pipe, pushing Americans to spend and order more.
What’s happening: Port of Long Beach, the second-busiest after Port of Los Angeles, handled more containers last month than any other February in its 110-year history.
What they’re saying: “The good news is the economy is getting better. People are spending money. Given the consumer demand, which is beyond what we expected, even if you go back six months, we do have challenges,” Mario Cordero, the port’s executive director, tells Axios.
Catch up quick: Bored-at-home Americans with more money redirected spending to online shopping — setting off a rat race to get products from overseas.
The problem: A shortage of containers that carry the stuff that’s shipped to the states via sea. Containers that do get sent are tied up at America’s busiest ports, where workers are overwhelmed in unloading them — making the backup and the container shortage worse.
AstraZeneca finds no evidence of increased blood clot risk from vaccine – Reuters
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday a review of safety data of people vaccinated with its COVID-19 vaccine has shown no evidence of an increased risk of blood clots.
AstraZeneca’s review, which covered more than 17 million people vaccinated in the United Kingdom and European Union, comes after health authorities in some countries suspended the use of its vaccine over clotting issues.
“A careful review of all available safety data of more than 17 million people vaccinated in the European Union and UK with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has shown no evidence of an increased risk of pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis or thrombocytopenia, in any defined age group, gender, batch or in any particular country,” the company said.
Authorities in Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Iceland and the Netherlands have suspended the use of the vaccine over clotting issues, while Austria stopped using a batch of AstraZeneca shots last week while investigating a death from coagulation disorders.
[editor’s note: also read Germany, France and Italy are the latest to suspend use of AstraZeneca’s vaccine. and Europe has nearly 8 million unused AstraZeneca doses and AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine benefits outweigh risks, European Medicines Agency reiterates and Netherlands lab received 10 reports of blood clots in AstraZeneca recipients and Norway announces the death of a person vaccinated with AstraZeneca and These are the European countries suspending use of the AstraZeneca vaccine and No evidence of blood clots linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine, says Public Health England]
Virus tolls similar despite governors’ contrasting actions – AP
Nearly a year after California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation’s first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited, and Disneyland remains closed.
By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has prohibited municipalities from fining people who refuse to wear masks. And Disney World has been open since July.
Despite their differing approaches, California and Florida have experienced almost identical outcomes in COVID-19 case rates.
How have two states that took such divergent tacks arrived at similar points?
… California and Florida both have a COVID-19 case rate of around 8,900 per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And both rank in the middle among states for COVID-19 death rates — Florida was 27th as of Friday; California was 28th.
Connecticut and South Dakota are another example. Both rank among the 10 worst states for COVID-19 death rates. Yet Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, imposed numerous statewide restrictions over the past year after an early surge in deaths, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, issued no mandates as virus deaths soared in the fall.
While Lamont ordered quarantines for certain out-of-state visitors, Noem launched a $5 million tourism advertising campaign and welcomed people to a massive motorcycle rally, which some health experts said spread the coronavirus throughout the Midwest.
Both contend their approach is the best.
[editor’s note: You should always follow science – unless the science is just a set of guesses. We still are guessing.]
COVID Shot While on a Blood Thinner? – MedPage
As COVID-19 vaccination continues to roll out to older and medically eligible people across the country, many questions arise for those taking blood thinners.
The most important point is that COVID-19 vaccine is fine for pretty much all individuals, no matter whether they have a thrombophilia, a prior deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE), or are on a blood thinner.
Reasons not to get the vaccine have to do with allergies but not with the fact that a patient has had a clot or is on an anticoagulant. While COVID-19 infection is associated with an increased risk of DVT and PE, particularly in the very sick and hospitalized patient, there is no reason to believe that the vaccine would increase the risk for blood clots. Recent concerns with thrombotic side effects after vaccination with the AstraZeneca shot in Europe appear to be chance events, not causally related to the vaccine.
Most patients do not need to interrupt their anticoagulant before getting the vaccine. The COVID-19 vaccine is given as a shot into the deltoid muscle, just like the flu shot. The needle diameter used for injections is very fine, typically 22-25 gauge. It has been shown that intramuscular flu shots in patients on full-dose warfarin (Coumadin, Jantoven) do not increase the risk for bleeding at the site of the injection.
Similarly, it is reasonable to think that the risk for significant bleeding into the muscle is also not increased in a patient who takes a direct oral anticoagulant — apixaban (Eliquis), dabigatran (Pradaxa), edoxaban (Savaysa), or rivaroxaban (Xarelto) — or other anticoagulant like enoxaparin (Lovenox) or fondaparinux (Arixtra).
The FDA’s COVID-19 vaccine factsheet calls for patients to tell their provider before getting the vaccine if they have a bleeding disorder or are on a blood thinner but does not provide any guidance for the provider. A few formal documents from societies and federal agencies provide useful input.
Immigrants in ICE detention face high risks in COVID-19 pandemic – EurekAlert
Immigrants imprisoned in immigration facilities across the country face health conditions and often have chronic illnesses that would expose them to greater risk with COVID-19, a new University of California, Davis, study suggests.
“The research is clear: immigration detention is not only unnecessary for facilitating a just immigration system, but also causes extensive harm to detained people, perhaps especially to those facing chronic health conditions,” said the study’s lead author, Caitlin Patler, professor of sociology. “This is particularly alarming in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government must act quickly to permanently reduce reliance on this overly punitive and systematically unjust practice.”
The study was published earlier this month in the Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health.
In severe COVID, cytokine “hurricane” in lung attracts damaging inflammatory cells – EurekAlert
A cytokine “hurricane” centered in the lungs drives respiratory symptoms in patients with severe COVID-19, a new study by immunologists at Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons suggests.
Two cytokines, CCL2 and CCL3, appear critical in luring immune cells, called monocytes, from the bloodstream into the lungs, where the cells launch an overaggressive attempt to clear the virus.
Targeting these specific cytokines with inhibitors may calm the immune reaction and prevent lung tissue damage. Currently, one drug that blocks immune responses to CCL2 is being studied in clinical trials of patients with severe COVID-19.
Survivors of severe COVID-19, the study also found, had a greater abundance of antiviral T cells in their lungs than patients who died, suggesting these T cells may be critical in helping patients control the virus and preventing a runaway immune response.
The study, published online March 12 in the journal Immunity, is one of the first to examine the immune response as it unfolds in real time inside the lungs and the bloodstream in patients who are hospitalized with severe COVID-19.
What We Know About COVID Vaccines and Fertility in Women and Men – Newsweek
Rumors have been circulating online suggesting that the COVID-19 vaccines have a negative impact on human fertility. However, experts say such claims are unfounded.
“There is absolutely no evidence, and no theoretical reason, that any of the vaccines can affect the fertility of women or men,” says guidance published by the Association of Reproductive and Clinical Scientists (ARCS) and the British Fertility Society (BFS).
The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) has also issued a statement debunking claims that the COVID-19 vaccines currently available in the U.S. are a cause of infertility, noting that they have been “scientifically disproven.”
According to ACOG, the two mRNA vaccines—manufactured by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna respectively—are not a cause of infertility, given their mechanism of action and safety profiles.
These vaccines use a single-stranded molecule known as messenger RNA (mRNA) to provide the body with a set of genetic instructions for producing the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which the virus uses to enter human cells.
Your body generates the protein, stimulating the immune system to generate antibodies against COVID-19. This prepares the body’s defensive response should it ever encounter the real virus.
These vaccines do not enter the nucleus of the body’s cells and do not alter human DNA, meaning they cannot cause any genetic changes. The mRNA itself is extremely short-lived and easily degraded.
The vaccine produced by the Johnson & Johnson-owned pharmaceutical company Janssen, meanwhile, is based on more traditional technology, but also does not affect human fertility.
This vaccine uses a modified adenovirus—a common virus that causes cold-like symptoms. Scientists alter the virus so that it carries pieces of genetic material from the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.
“Adenovirus vector vaccines such as the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine cannot replicate following administration, and available data demonstrate that it is cleared from tissues following injection,” ACOG said. “Because it does not replicate in the cells, the vaccine cannot cause infection or alter the DNA of a vaccine recipient and is also not a cause of infertility.”
Mental health crisis affecting young people needs immediate attention, report says. – New York Times
Young people’s reports of poor well-being during the pandemic have fueled a global crisis that needs immediate attention, according to a nonprofit organization that surveyed nearly 50,000 people in eight countries, providing a comprehensive overview of the pandemic’s impact on mental health.
More than one in four respondents reported facing or being at risk of clinical disorders, a number that rose to nearly one in two for those ages 18 to 24, according to the report, which was released by group, Sapien Labs, a U.S. nonprofit group dedicated to understanding the human mind.
The report, based on data collected from an online, anonymous survey whose findings were published on Monday, focused on Australia, Britain, Canada, India, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa and the United States. It found that 40 percent of respondents ages 18 to 24 reported feeling sadness, distress or hopelessness, as well as unwanted, strange and obsessive thoughts.
“The coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated trends that were already there, and made them worse,” said Dr. Tara Thiagarajan, the founder and chief scientist of Sapien Labs. “Particularly, social isolation has had a larger impact on young people, and it’s pushed many of them over the edge.”
Other studies have shown that the pandemic has disproportionately affected the mental health of young people, women and people of color.
31% of young adults relocated during Covid. But they aren’t giving up on cities altogether – CNBC
A pandemic migration has been underway, at least for young adults ages 18 to 31.
That’s according to a Bankrate.com survey that found 31% of people in that age cohort relocated either permanently or for an extended period of time during the pandemic. That’s compared to 16% of adults overall.
Gen Z — who range from ages 18 to 24 — were most likely to pick up stakes, with 32% relocating. That was followed by millennials — ages 25 to 40 — at 26%.
Members of Gen X — ages 41 to 56 — and baby boomers — ages 57 to 75 — were least likely to relocate, with 10% and 5% having made moves, respectively.
The main reason people relocated was to be closer to friends and family, which was cited by 31% of respondents. That was followed by more affordable living, with 27%, or relocating for a job, 21%.
Others were motivated by opportunities for more space, 18%; different climates, 17%; or the ability to work from anywhere, 17%.
While many of the respondents left cities, they did not go far.
In the New York metro area, three of the five most popular places to relocate from Manhattan were less than 15 miles away, according to Bankrate’s analysis of data from the U.S. Postal Service.
Meanwhile, people who left other cities, such as Austin, Dallas, Houston or Orlando, mostly chose new home bases that are less than 30 miles away.
“It really seems like people are just leaving the densest neighborhoods to go to places where they may be able to get a bit more bang for their buck,” said Zach Wichter, a mortgage and real estate reporter at Bankrate.
More evidence severe Covid-19 can affect brain function, study finds – CNN
A new study published Monday provides additional evidence that severe Covid-19 can affect brain function.
The study, published in the journal JAMA Network Open, used advanced techniques to examine the brains of people with severe Covid-19.
The study found that patients with severe Covid-19 – and no other clear reason for their neurologic symptoms – were more likely to have movement disorders such as tremor or seizures, frontal lobe syndrome or brainstem impairment, which can cause problems with planning and social behavior.
These patients were defined as having Covid-19-related encephalopathy, or CORE.
“In our study, we showed that patients with CORE mostly had movement disorders (mainly seizures and/or myorrhythmia), brainstem impairment (oculomotor disorders such as head bobbing) and frontal syndrome (disinhibition and grasping),” the researchers wrote.
The study was conducted at a single hospital in Paris between March 30 and June 11, 2020. It included 78 patients with severe Covid-19 who also underwent a special test looking at electrical firing of brain cells during their hospitalization, called an electroencephalogram, or EEG. Many, but not all, of these patients also had other advanced imaging techniques performed, such as brain magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI
Of the 78 patients included in the study, nine were found to have CORE
Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday that there are still questions about vaccines and the immunocompromised.
It’s remains unclear, he said at a news conference, whether people who are immunocompromised make a comparable immune response to those without these conditions, whether the protection from vaccines will last as long in them and whether they will be able to transmit the disease after vaccination.
There’s no question people who are immunocompromised are at higher risk for bad outcomes if they do get COVID-19, he said.
People with compromised immune systems are also more likely to spread the virus to others, several experts said, and may be more likely to foster the variants that threaten to make the disease more dangerous and vaccines less effective.
That’s why it’s particularly important for the immunocompromised to get vaccinated.
“We have an amazing opportunity to prevent people from getting ill,” said Dr. Lewis Teperman, director of transplantation at Northwell Health, a large care provider in New York.
Some people who are immunocompromised are hesitant, mostly out of fear of flare-ups and lack of long-term data.
In a survey by the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, 70% of the 6,516 patients and survivors who participated said they were “likely” or “very likely” to be vaccinated – no more than the general population, although people with blood cancer are three times more likely to die from COVID-19.
“These are people at high risk of contracting this illness, but more importantly, if they become sick, the downside consequences of morbidity and mortality are just so enormous,” said Reni Conti, who helped conduct the research at Boston University.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Government Consigned Israeli Population to be Human Subjects in a Massive Experiment
Most of Italy entered a new lockdown today. Cases have risen over the past three weeks, driven by the spread of the variant first found in Britain and a slow vaccination campaign.
The virus has extinguished a centuries-old tribe in the Amazon. The last member of the Juma people died from Covid last month.
Italy imposes lockdown measures as cases spike across Europe.
Dutch go to the polls as strict — and unpopular — Covid lockdown continues
China has administered nearly 65 million Covid-19 vaccine doses
Papua New Guinea reports surge in Covid-19 cases
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The most recent CDC data indicates over 100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have now been administered in the U.S., with some 37 million people fully vaccinated; not quite two-thirds of those 65 and older have gotten at least one dose.
Dr. Anthony Fauci called on Donald Trump to urge his supporters to get a vaccine “for your health, the health of your family and the health of the country.” Many Republicans are hesitant to get the vaccine, polls show.
March Madness set to be most unpredictable ever
Las Vegas sees large crowds as casinos allowed 50 percent capacity on Monday
Prices will rise because of stimulus, but that won’t last, Janet Yellen says
More California Cities Experiment With “Hero Pay” Leading To Predictable Results
Trump’s COVID-19 Task Force coordinator, Deborah Birx, MD, has two new jobs: chief medical and scientific advisor to an air filtration company with a focus on COVID infections, and senior fellow at the George W. Bush Institute.
Here are nine previously normal social interactions that may cause anxiety even in a post-pandemic world.
Hundreds of spring breakers ignoring COVID-19 rules arrested in Miami Beach
CDC: Most people get both coronavirus vaccine doses on time
Hundreds gather in Seattle to protest attacks on Asian Americans
US Air Travel Increases to March 2020 Levels
The Boom in Out-of-State Telehealth Threatens In-State Providers
Nearly half of Trump’s supporters aren’t interested in getting vaccinated against COVID-19.
One-Third of Unvaccinated in U.S. Don’t Trust Scientists Who Made Vaccines
Fauci Warns ‘Don’t Spike the Ball on the 5-Yard Line’ as COVID Orders Eased
Mississippi opens vaccine eligibility to everyone starting Tuesday.
Facebook said on Monday that it planned to expand its efforts to help get people vaccinated against the coronavirus. The social network said it would roll out a new location-based tool to direct people to the clinics nearest to them that offer vaccinations, which users can find inside Facebook’s main app.
Former NEC director Gene Sperling tapped to implement Biden Covid relief plan
Pennsylvania will ease restrictions on restaurants and businesses starting April 4
UK variant of Covid-19 will be dominant in US by end of March or early April, CDC director says
Moderna launches trial of new easier-to-distribute Covid-19 vaccine
Fauci: Study suggests 3 feet may be enough social distance in schools
President Biden will announce today that Gene Sperling, a former top economic official in the last two Democratic presidential administrations, will serve as the point person in overseeing the implementation of the newly signed $1.9 trillion Covid relief law, according to two people briefed on the plan and a senior administration official.
Fauci says Covid guidelines “will be much more liberal” by July 4 if US cases drop
Millions face tax refund delays as stimulus rolls out
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
March 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Index Improves
Infographic Of The Day: Pandemic Economic Dashboard
Vaccine Passports May Be On The Way – But Are They A Reason For Hope Or A Cause For Concern?
Countries Most Impacted By COVID19: Status 13 March 2021
Tourism Experts Fear Long Road To Recovery
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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