Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 12.7 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 18.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 58,611
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,564
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 28.6 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved.
- Early Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine trial data shows antibody response after 8 days.
- Brazil study identifies two cases of simultaneous infection with two different coronavirus variants
- Why global Covid infections have plummeted
- Unhealthy weight gains, increased drinking reported by Americans coping with pandemic stress
- These symptoms and risk factors may predict whether you could become a ‘COVID long hauler,’ study suggests
- Restrictions have been relaxed on nursing home visitation allowing more personal contact with family members when certain conditions are met.
- Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, and Italy suspend AstraZeneca COVID shots after blood clot reports
- A year with the coronavirus: How we got here
- COVID drove record U.S. death rate in 2020
- Postural Tachycardia an Emerging Concern During COVID-19 Recovery
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge But Unfortunately No Longer Updated Daily
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 28 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 28 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 28 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
One year ago this week, the world began to shut down as the global pandemic hit.
President Joe Biden signed the first major legislative achievement of his young presidency Thursday afternoon, moving to get a $1.86 trillion COVID-19 aid package into law as quickly as possible.
“In the weeks that this bill has been discussed and debated, it’s clear that an overwhelming percentage of the American people: Democrats, independents, Republican friends, have made it clear, the people out there have made it clear they strongly support the American Rescue Plan,” Biden said in the Oval Office.
The president said he would be hitting the road in support of the plan as implementation gets underway, saying the legislation is fundamentally is “about rebuilding the backbone of this country.”
The signing came ahead of the president’s first formal prime-time address to the nation, set for Thursday evening, and on the one-year anniversary of the World Health Organization’s declaration that COVID -19 was a pandemic.
The measure signed Thursday will infuse a host of economic relief measures into the economy, from direct payments of up to $1,400 to millions of households and a further extension of $300 unemployment insurance supplements into September. Biden’s signature brings the total price tag of the deficit spending on pandemic-related measures enacted since last March to about $5.4 trillion.
[editor’s note: Direct payments of up $1,400 could hit Americans’ bank accounts as soon as this weekend]
Brazil study identifies two cases of simultaneous infection with two different coronavirus variants – CNN
A new study in Brazil identified two cases of people simultaneously infected with two different strains of the coronavirus. The study was published online and will appear in April’s edition of Virus Research.
The researchers analyzed genomic sequencing of 92 samples from Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state and found simultaneous infections with two different coronavirus strains in two cases.
Here’s what the study found:
- Both cases were women in their 30s who had typical mild-to-moderate flu-like symptoms and did not become severely ill or require hospitalization.
- In one case, the two variants have been circulating in Brazil since the beginning of the pandemic.
- In the other case, in addition to an older strain of the virus, the person was also infected with the P.2 variant first identified in Rio de Janeiro.
According to the study, the concern with co-infection is not due to the worsening of the disease, but to the possibility of recombination of the genomes of the different strains, which can generate new variants of the coronavirus.
Why global Covid infections have plummeted – Financial Times
Global infection rates have dropped precipitously since the start of 2021, from more than 5m cases a week to 2.5m in mid-February. The sharpest declines have come in some of the countries that were worst affected in late 2020, including the US, UK, South Africa, Israel, and Portugal. Case rates in each of these countries have dropped by more than 50 percent over the past month.
“It is always positive to see cases decreasing rather than increasing,” said Antoine Flahault, co-director of the Swiss School of Public Health in Zurich. “What gives me hope is that these countries, like the UK, the US . . . will have a window of opportunity to maintain low levels of [virus] circulation. They have a second chance to take control.”
Yet despite tumbling infection rates in hard-hit countries, global infections have begun to inch up in recent days, led by rises in EU countries including Hungary and France, as well as stubbornly high infection rates in others, notably Brazil. There were 2.6m new cases globally in the week to February 23, a 3 percent increase over five days.
Experts say that vaccinations have played a role in the falling number of cases in the US and the UK — which have given jabs to 13.5 and 28 percent of their populations, respectively — but it does not alone explain the trend. The UK has imposed one of the strictest lockdowns anywhere in the world over the past two months, leading to a significant drop in new cases, from an average of 56,000 a day in early January to closer to 13,000 this week.
To complicate the picture, the US has steered clear of a national lockdown yet infections have fallen sharply. Epidemiologists attribute the 72 per cent drop in cases since early January in part to disciplined physical distancing and less travel after the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.
[editor’s note: this post deserves a full read]
A year with the coronavirus: How we got here – The Hill
On March 11, 2020, the nation’s top infectious disease expert sat before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee to address a novel coronavirus that had infected about 1,800 Americans.
“We will see more cases and things will get worse than they are right now,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
Within hours, the weight of Fauci’s words became apparent.
The NBA suspended its season after a player who had mocked the virus tested positive. The NCAA said its annual tournament would take place without fans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average entered bear territory for the first time in more than a decade.
The actors Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson said they had tested positive for the virus in Australia. More than four times as many people searched Google for the word “coronavirus” than for information on the weather. For the first time, World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described the situation as a pandemic.
If, in the decades ahead, society decides to set aside a day to remember the year that followed, March 11 will be as appropriate a date as any. It will be a day of mourning for the 2.6 million who have already died around the globe, a fifth of whom died in the United States.
It will be a day of celebration for the public health workers who put their own lives at risk to care for the sick. It will be a day to contemplate the fragility of human life and the value of our loved ones.
Most of all, it will be a day to remember and learn from the painful experiences we have all gone through, cause to recall the imperative to prepare for a new pathogen that is certain to threaten the world sometime in the not-too-distant future.
[editor’s note: a good summary article for those who want to walk down COVID memory lane :)]
Virus drove record U.S. death rate in 2020, CDC finds – Politico
Covid-19 killed nearly 400,000 people in the U.S. in 2020, making it the third-leading cause of death.
The U.S. death rate increased by 15 percent last year as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, making it the deadliest year in recorded U.S. history, the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention will announce, according to two senior administration officials with direct knowledge of the matter.
The agency will summarize its findings in an upcoming issue of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Its analysis will detail the rates at which U.S. residents of various races and ethnicities died as a result of the virus as well as the total number of deaths in each demographic group, those sources said.
Covid-19 was the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer, the report found. “Unintentional injuries” is normally the third-leading cause of death, officials said.
Altogether more than 3 million people in the U.S. died in 2020, the agency found.
The upcoming report will mark the first time the agency has publicly acknowledged that the national death rate spiked last year and that Covid-19 played a role in the increase. According to CDC data, the 2020 increase is the largest since 1918 — when, in the midst of World War I, hundreds of thousands of people died of a flu. By comparison, the death rate decreased in 2019 by 1.2 percent compared to the 2018 toll.
Denmark, Norway and Iceland suspend AstraZeneca COVID shots after blood clot reports – Reuters
Health authorities in Denmark, Norway and Iceland on Thursday suspended the use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine shots following reports of the formation of blood clots in some people who had been vaccinated.
Austria earlier stopped using a batch of AstraZeneca shots while investigating a death from coagulation disorders and an illness from a pulmonary embolism.
Still, the European medicine regulator EMA said the vaccine’s benefits outweighed its risks and could continue to be administered.
Europe is struggling to speed up a vaccine rollout after delivery delays from Pfizer and AstraZeneca, even as a spike in cases amid a more contagious virus variant has triggered fresh lockdowns in countries like Italy and France.
Denmark suspended the shots for two weeks after a 60-year-old woman, who was given an AstraZeneca shot from the same batch used in Austria, formed a blood clot and died, Danish health authorities said.
Their response was also prompted by reports “of possible serious side effects” from other European countries.
[editor’s note: ZeroHedge reported: “More countries have followed Denmark by suspending approval of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID vaccine. Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, and Italy have now opted to halt use of the vaccine, creating more problems for Europe’s sluggish vaccine rollout. The halts follow incidents involving blood clots in patients who recently received the vaccine. Two incidents were reported in Austria, although Vienna is allowing the vaccine to continue to be used, at least for now. Serious cases of blood clotshave been reported in Denmark and other countries as well. Writer and skeptic Alex Berenson noted in a tweet that the AZ jab isn’t the only COVID shot suspected of causing harmful side effects in a small number of patients.’]
CMS relaxed restrictions on nursing home visitation during the pandemic, allowing more personal contact with family members when certain conditions are met. – CMS.gov
According to the updated guidance, facilities should allow responsible indoor visitation at all times and for all residents, regardless of vaccination status of the resident, or visitor, unless certain scenarios arise that would limit visitation for:
- Unvaccinated residents, if the COVID-19 county positivity rate is greater than 10 percent and less than 70 percent of residents in the facility are fully vaccinated;
- Residents with confirmed COVID-19 infection, whether vaccinated or unvaccinated, until they have met the criteria to discontinue transmission-based precautions; or
- Residents in quarantine, whether vaccinated or unvaccinated, until they have met criteria for release from quarantine.
The updated guidance also emphasizes that “compassionate care” visits should be allowed at all times, regardless of a resident’s vaccination status, the county’s COVID-19 positivity rate, or an outbreak. Compassionate care visits include visits for a resident whose health has sharply declined or is experiencing a significant change in circumstances.
CMS continues to recommend facilities, residents, and families adhere to the core principles of COVID-19 infection control, including maintaining physical distancing and conducting visits outdoors whenever possible. This continues to be the safest way to prevent the spread of COVID-19, particularly if either party has not been fully vaccinated.
Postural Tachycardia an Emerging Concern During COVID-19 Recovery – MedPage
The possibility of COVID-19 long-haulers experiencing symptoms suggestive of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) was strengthened by a small case series from Sweden.
Three young patients who were suspected of having COVID-19 in the spring of 2020 were diagnosed with POTS more than 3 months later on the grounds of orthostatic tachycardia and chronic symptoms of orthostatic intolerance after exclusion of competing etiologies, reported a group led by Madeleine Johansson, MD, PhD, of Lund University and Skåne University Hospital in Malmö, Sweden, in a paper published online in JACC: Case Reports.
“Much remains unknown about the specific mechanisms responsible for the POTS-like symptoms in post-COVID-19 patients or how long these symptoms will last, but chronic symptoms are expected in a subset of patients based on this initial clinical experience,” Johansson’s team said.
“This article from Sweden documents what many autonomic clinics are starting to see, which is an increase in referrals for patients with POTS late post-COVID … The full impact of long COVID and long COVID POTS is not yet known. With over 117 million patients who have suffered from COVID-19, we may be seeing many similar patients,” said Satish Raj, MD, of University of Calgary in Alberta, who was not involved with the study.
Unhealthy weight gains, increased drinking reported by Americans coping with pandemic stress – EurekAlert
One year after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, many adults report undesired changes to their weight, increased drinking and other negative behavior changes that may be related to an inability to cope with prolonged stress, according to the American Psychological Association’s latest Stress in America™ poll.
APA’s survey of U.S. adults, conducted in late February 2021 by The Harris Poll, shows that a majority of adults (61%) experienced undesired weight changes – weight gain or loss — since the pandemic started, with 42% reporting they gained more weight than they intended.
These symptoms and risk factors may predict whether you could become a ‘COVID long hauler,’ study suggests – USA Today
A new study suggests coronavirus symptoms felt in the first week of infection may be a predictor of how long they will last.
Patients with COVID-19 who felt more than five symptoms in their first week of illness were more likely to become a so-called “COVID long hauler,” which researchers qualified as having symptoms for longer than 28 days, according to the study published Wednesday in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Medicine.
The five symptoms experienced during the first week that were most predictive of becoming a long hauler were fatigue, headache, hoarse voice, muscle pain and difficulty breathing.
Researchers from King’s College London, Massachusetts General Hospital and Boston Children’s Hospital asked COVID-19 patients from the U.K., U.S. and Sweden to report their symptoms through a smartphone application from March to September 2020.
Out of more than 4,000 participants, about 13% of patients reported symptoms lasting more than 28 days, 4% for more than 8 weeks and 2% more than 12 weeks.
… The study found two main patterns among study participants. One group of COVID long haulers exclusively reported fatigue, headache and upper respiratory issues, such as shortness of breath, sore throat, cough and loss of smell. However, a second group of long haulers had persistent multi-system complaints, such as a fever or gastrointestinal symptoms.
- The highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in the U.K. is associated with a 64% higher risk of dying from Covid-19 than earlier strains, according to a new study.
- Researchers in the U.K. analyzed data from more than 100,000 patients, comparing death rates among people infected with B.1.1.7 and those infected with other previously circulating strains.
- The researchers said people infected with B.1.1.7 were between 32% and 104% more likely to die.
Early Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine trial data shows antibody response after 8 days – CNN
Many of the people who got a single dose of the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine in an early clinical trial developed neutralizing antibodies against the virus by about day eight, and by day 57, all of the volunteers had, according to a study published Thursday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
The US Food and Drug Administration authorized the Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose Covid-19 vaccine in February. This is one of the first peer-reviewed studies to show how the single dose of the J&J vaccine worked in humans – and it worked well.
The company released data throughout the trial process. In January, J&J also published interim results of a larger part of the vaccine trial in the New England Journal of Medicine. That study showed the vaccine was safe and generated an immune response.
For this part of the early stage trial, the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston recruited 25 adult volunteers who were randomized into five different groups. One group got a single shot, another got two. In those two groups, scientists tried two different vaccine doses. Another group got a placebo.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
In France, daily COVID-19 cases rose above 30,000 for the first time in 2 weeks.
South Korean Hospitals Extract Extra COVID Vaccine Doses From Vials
Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot vaccine is approved by the European Union.
France eases restrictions on international travelers
WHO investigators say Covid origins could be known ‘within the next few years’
Swedish Crown Princess Victoria and husband test positive for Covid
Jordan’s health ministry reported 8,300 new cases of coronavirus Thursday, which is the highest number since the pandemic began. It also reported 63 new deaths.
England is investigating a new coronavirus variant linked to travel from Antigua
Swiss-Italian company confirms deal to produce Sputnik V vaccine
Brazil reports record high Covid-19 deaths for second consecutive day
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
High Obesity Rates in Southern States Magnify COVID Threat
The pace of vaccination slowed last month, because of winter storms. But it has now picked up again, and more than two million Americans per day are receiving shots. The current pace won’t be impressive for long. By the end of the month, the federal government will be receiving an average of more than three million doses a day, from Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Pfizer. At that point, three million daily shots will be a more sensible goal.
where B.1.1.7 has spread widely, “there’s no sign of any increase in cases,” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote. In South Africa, where the B.1.351 variant was first detected, cases are nonetheless plunging:
Citing data from Israel, Pfizer and BioNTech said their COVID-19 vaccine was 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic infection, but their announcement lacked key details.
State and local health officials — many of which have been rationing vaccines for the past few months — are preparing for an influx of doses, and have been advised to plan for 22 to 24 million shots a week by early April.
People with pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2 responded well to the first dose of an mRNA vaccine, developing antibody titers like those seen in previously uninfected people after their second dose.
The COVID-19 variant that originated in New York (B.1.526) is more infectious than the original strain.
Migrant health centers are trying to vaccinate farmworkers. But there’s one roadblock — in many states, they’re not eligible.
New study: Healthcare settings do not increase risk for Covid-19 infection spread
Aspirin use to avoid the development of cardiovascular diseases in healthy individuals was associated with a 29% lower likelihood of COVID-19 infection, as compared to aspirin non-users. The proportion of patients treated with aspirin was significantly lower among the COVID-19-positive individuals, as compared to the COVID-19-negative ones. And those subjects who had been treated with aspirin were less associated with the likelihood of COVID-19 infection than those who were not.
US household wealth hits record $130 trillion despite pandemic
Oklahoma governor eliminates state’s remaining COVID-19 restrictions
US marks anniversary of COVID lockdowns
The CDC and COVID-19: Not ready a year ago, but too restrictive today?
YouTube removed 30,000 videos with vaccine misinformation
More than 20 percent of health care workers experience depression, anxiety amid pandemic: study
Austin Imposes Own Mask Requirement; Paxton Threatens Suit
High Obesity Rates in Southern States Magnify COVID Threat
As Texas Bars Fully Reopen, 9 in 10 Texans Aren’t Fully COVID Vaccinated
Spring Breakers Party on South Padre Island Sans Masks as Texas Reopens
Economic Experts Predict California Will Recover Faster Than U.S.
A year later, how much has economy recovered?
Kroger accidentally ‘vaccinates’ some with empty vials
Indoor dining in N.Y.C. and New Jersey can go to 50 percent on March 19, the governors say.
Domestic travelers to New York State will no longer be required to quarantine starting April 1
American Airlines upsized its planned $7.5 billion debt sale — a mix of two bonds and loan backed by its frequent flyer program — to $10 billion, saying it will use the additional liquidity to pay down other debt, including a federal coronavirus loan.
Moderna expects early efficacy data on Covid-19 vaccine booster by May
Pfizer CEO urges people to get whatever vaccine is offered first
Epidemiologist says he’s concerned Covid-19 variants in US may “beat us at the vaccination game”
Yesterday was the busiest Wednesday at US airports since the holidays, TSA data shows
Covid relief funding to be used for federal cybersecurity efforts
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
January 2021 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Little Changed
06 March 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves Again
4Q2020 CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Report: Homeowners Gained Over $1.5 Trillion in Equity In 2020
Pollen Can Raise Your Risk Of COVID-19 And The Season Is Getting Longer Thanks To Climate Change
Working From Home Is Onstage And Here To Stay
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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