Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 10.9 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 13.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

• U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 64,230
• U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 42,541
• U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 2,476
• U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 25.4 % of the population
• The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations marginally improved, and deaths worsened. The best monitoring tool, hospitalizations, has been showing continuous improvement.
• Fact Check: Do Overweight People Account For Most COVID-19 Deaths?
• What Happens When People Get Infected With 2 Strains of COVID at Once?
• Do Vaccines Help COVID Long-Haulers?
• Kids Hospitalized With COVID-19 Frequently Have Neuro Symptoms
• New Adjuvant Boosts SARS-CoV-2 Protection in Mice
• Economists warn positive jobs report obscures challenges ahead
• Accidentally Trashed, Thawed Or Expired: Reports Of COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Spoilage’ Grow
• As Americans get vaccinated, fewer are getting tested for COVID-19. Doctors say that could be a big problem.
• DA Warns Mercola for Selling Bogus COVID Treatments
• We know the pandemic is affecting working moms—but how is that affecting kids?

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge

Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.

The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.

It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.

Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?

Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:

• the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 25 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 25 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
• it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 25 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
• The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
• It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

FDA Warns Mercola for Selling Bogus COVID Treatments – MedPage

Among a flurry of recent FDA warning letters was one sent to Joseph Mercola, DO, a controversial alternative medicine physician, for improperly marketing COVID-19 treatments.

The agency told Mercola that three products he markets with COVID-19 claims — “Liposomal Vitamin C, Liposomal Vitamin D3, and Quercetin and Pterostilbene Advanced” — are “unapproved new drugs” and “misbranded drugs” being sold in violation of the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act

FDA asked Mercola to “take immediate action to cease the sale of such unapproved and unauthorized products” and said he must reply within 48 hours as to specific steps that will be taken to address the violation. “Failure to adequately correct any violations may result in legal action, including, without limitations, seizure and injunction,” the agency wrote.

The letter to Mercola was among nearly 80 the FDA has posted since Feb. 1. Many are about products the agency said were illegally marketed in relation to COVID-19.

Late Thursday, for example, the FDA announced that it had sent letters to five companies selling thermal imaging devices to detect fevers in multiple people at once.

Mercola’s letter — dated Feb. 18 but only posted on March 4 — gives several examples of the improper promotion and claims regarding these products for COVID-19, including a tweet from April 7, 2020 that states, “Vitamins C and D are finally being adopted in the conventional treatment of novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. This fortunate turn of events is likely to save thousands of lives, while keeping health care costs down.”

We know the pandemic is affecting working moms—but how is that affecting kids? – National Geographic

Almost one million mothers have left the workforce since the shutdown began, and many others have cut back work hours to deal with household responsibilities. Working women are also assuming more childcare responsibilities as schools and daycares stay closed.

In fact, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, since the pandemic began the number of women in the workforce has dropped to about 56 percent, compared to almost 58 percent in January 2020 (or 57.5 percent in 2019). “We’re now back at 1988 in terms of the level of women’s employment,” says Julie Kohler, a social scientist and fellow at the National Women’s Law Center. “I keep thinking about this, that in less than a year we eradicated 30 years of labor gains for women.”

Because of those steady labor gains since the ’80s, traditional gender roles have also been slowly shifting. For instance, the amount of housework married men do has more than doubled since the 1960s (though married women still, on average, do twice as much housework as men). And in the last 15 years, women have become less likely to be the primary partner handling grocery shopping, laundry, cooking, dishwashing, and cleaning, though they still occupy those roles in a majority of households. And psychologists and sociologists say gender roles at home have a big impact on how kids grow up, as well as what their expectations are for themselves and their future families.

So as experts worry that the pandemic is quickly reversing equity gains women have made over the last 30 years, they’re also concerned about the long-lasting impacts on children observing shifting gender roles at home. The choices that parents make during this time, though, can minimize the effects on kids and even bring about positive changes from this challenging time.

“When moms are more dependent on the father to be the breadwinner, that situation is very gender traditional,” says Martie Haselton, a professor of psychology at UCLA and the Institute for Society and Genetics. In the past, that often meant that women—working outside the home or not—were taking on more household chores and childcare responsibilities.

Those traditional roles affected how kids grew up. For example, according to data released by Harvard Business School in 2015 and 2018, daughters of moms who stayed at home do more housework as adults than daughters of employed mothers, while adult sons do less, even when controlling for employment status.

As Americans get vaccinated, fewer are getting tested for COVID-19. Doctors say that could be a big problem. – USA Today

Public heath experts have been critical of states such as Texas and Mississippi that tossed aside mask mandates this week at a critical juncture in the nation’s pandemic.

But they also warn of another threat to hard-fought gains in recent weeks – the number of Americans getting tested for coronavirus has dropped significantly since January.

While the testing slowdown may be the result of fewer infections, it also might signal too many Americans are growing complacent as the second year of COVID-19 marches on and millions get vaccinated every week.

Testing remains a staple of the effort to control COVID-19, along with wearing masks, social distancing, avoiding crowded indoor places and hand hygiene. While officials are optimistic vaccines will offer protection, some warn the nation might be letting its guard down before enough Americans are protected from the virus.

“A lot of people are just kind of done with the pandemic,” said Mary K. Hayden, professor of internal medicine and pathology at Rush Medical College in Chicago.

In January, labs and other testing sites completed an average of nearly 1.9 million tests each day as cases reached record levels. Average daily testing dropped to 1.5 million in February and 1.3 million so far in March, according to figures from the COVID Tracking Project.

Hayden said the nation’s testing never reached levels that public health officials thought was “adequate or optimal” to control the virus.

… As the pandemic rolls into year two, people are less willing to get screened for the virus, Hayden said. Earlier in the pandemic, people sought testing even if they had no symptoms or mild symptoms because they were worried about the virus. Now, based on anecdotal reports, it seems fewer non-symptomatic people are getting tested, she said.

Another factor: public health agencies are focusing limited resources on getting more Americans vaccinated. Former large testing sites, such as Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles and State Farm Stadium near Phoenix, have converted to mass vaccination sites.

Accidentally Trashed, Thawed Or Expired: Reports Of COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Spoilage’ Grow – NPR

As the speed of COVID vaccinations picks up, so do the reports of doses going to waste. And it’s more than just a handful at the end of the day because of a few appointment cancellations. Health officials are trying to address the problems that lead to waste, but without slowing down the roll out of the lifesaving vaccinations.

The incidents include the 335 discarded doses in Lee County, North Carolina that were damaged in shipping, and recent problems in Tennessee, where nearly 5,000 doses went to waste in the month of February, prompting additional federal oversight.

“I definitely have been losing some sleep over this, for sure,” says Beth Ann Wilmore, the nursing director at Mercy Community Healthcare in Franklin, Tennessee. She manages the COVID vaccine inventory at the nonprofit clinic, which started receiving shipments a month ago.

Clinics like Mercy are accustomed to handling vaccines, but none so precious that have such special refrigeration needs.

… In neighboring Murfreesboro, Tennessee, the local school district received a thousand doses for a teacher vaccination event the last weekend of February. But they were put in an unapproved freezer. The temperature sensor on the shipment flashed an error code. As a precaution, they were advised to throw them all away.

“It hurts my heart,” says Dr. Lisa Piercey, the health commissioner in Tennessee, which has disclosed one of the country’s biggest spikes in reported spoilage.

What Happens When People Get Infected With 2 Strains of COVID at Once? – Science Alert

Scientists in Brazil recently reported that two people were simultaneously infected with two different variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

This co-infection seemed to have no effect on the severity of patients’ illness, and both recovered without needing to be hospitalized.

Although this is one of the few such cases recorded with SARS-CoV-2 – and the study is yet to be published in a scientific journal – scientists have observed infections with multiple strains with other respiratory viruses, such as influenza.

This has raised questions about how these viruses may interact in an infected person, and what it could mean for generating new variants.

Viruses are masters of evolution, constantly mutating and creating new variants with every cycle of replication. Selective pressures in the host, such as our immune response, also drive these adaptations.

Most of these mutations won’t have a significant effect on the virus. But ones that give an advantage to the virus – for example, by increasing its ability to replicate or evade the immune system – are cause for concern and need to be closely monitored.

The occurrence of these mutations is down to the error-prone replication machinery that viruses use. RNA viruses, such as influenza and hepatitis C, generate a relatively large number of errors each time they replicate. This creates a “quasi-species” of the virus population, rather like a swarm of viruses, each with related but non-identical sequences.

[editor’s note: this post deserves a full read]

Do Vaccines Help COVID Long-Haulers? – MedPage

Anecdotal reports say some get relief from their long COVID symptoms after just one dose.

Some people suffering from long COVID have found significant symptom relief after the first dose of their COVID-19 vaccine, though the jury’s still out as to whether that’s the case for the majority of so-called long-haulers.

Last week, New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay tweeted that she felt significantly better after her first vaccine dose.

She acknowledged that her report was both “anecdotal and early,” but that many other long COVID survivors had described a similar experience.

Several commenters responded to Gay that they, too, had significant symptom relief after their first dose, including Sharon MacMillan, MD, an ob/gyn in Massachusetts, who said she’s been symptom-free for 6 weeks after her vaccine.

There are no definitive data on what percentage of long COVID patients may experience such relief, how long it lasts, or even if the effect is real. But the scientific community has indeed taken an interest, and some have even suggested the possibility of prospective studies.

Economists warn positive jobs report obscures challenges ahead – The Hill

A surprising February jobs gain and drop in the unemployment rate is obscuring the long road to a full recovery from the coronavirus recession, economists say.

The U.S. added 379,000 jobs last month, more than double what analysts had expected, and saw the jobless rate drop to 6.2 percent, the lowest level since March 2020.

While the February employment report showed signs of an accelerating recovery, the job gains were just a drop in the bucket compared to the deep damage built up within the labor market over the past year. The deceptively low unemployment rate also ignores the millions of Americans who’ve been forced out of the labor force by COVID-19 and its disproportionate toll on women of color.

“The numbers are not debatable, they’re not dubious, they’re not confusing. It’s clear. Millions of Americans have left the workforce and that is not good for our economy and definitely not good for continued growth of the economy,” said Michelle Holder, a labor economist at John Jay College in New York.

February’s employment gains were an undeniable improvement from January’s meager increase of 49,000 and included signs of businesses gearing up for a post-pandemic economy. The hard-hit leisure and hospitality sector added 355,000 jobs, predominantly at restaurants and bars long hindered by coronavirus restrictions.

Even so, the remarkable gain in that sector covers just slightly more than one-tenth of the 3.5 million jobs in that field claimed by COVID-19 yet to be replaced.

The U.S. is still down roughly 9.5 million jobs from the start of the pandemic, more than the total employment decline during the Great Recession, a gulf that would take more than two years to fill at February’s pace.

Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, calculated that employers would need to add an additional 2.4 million jobs to cover those that would have been gained if COVID-19 never derailed the economy.

New Adjuvant Boosts SARS-CoV-2 Protection in Mice – Medscape

A novel adjuvant that delivered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine directly to the lymph nodes in mice might be an effective option for humans, researchers suggest.

“Our new vaccine adjuvant, Amphiphile (AMP)-CpG is exciting because it can ‘hitchhike’ on albumin from the site of injection and ride into lymph nodes where new T cell and B cell responses begin,” Dr. Christopher Haqq of Elicio Therapeutics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which funded the study and employs all the authors. “Having a way to target new variants through T cells could make a huge difference in the pandemic.”

“Our (study) showed that AMP-CpG with the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain generated 25-fold higher numbers of T cells compared to standard vaccine adjuvants,” he noted. “We found T cells not only in the peripheral blood, but also in lung tissue, and even in the respiratory fluid that would be the first site to be infected if a patient developed COVID-19 pneumonia.”

As reported in Science Advances, Dr. Haqq and colleagues evaluated an AMP-CpG adjuvant made of diacyl lipid-modified cytosine-guanine (CpG) admixed with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike-2 receptor binding domain protein as a candidate vaccine (ELI-005) in mice.

As Dr. Haqq indicated, the adjuvant efficiently delivered CpG to lymph nodes, where innate and adaptive immune responses are generated. Mice immunized with a vaccine containing the new adjuvant had an antigen-specific T-cell response that was more than 25-fold greater than that of mice given the same vaccine with alum; importantly, as Dr. Haqq noted, the T cells also traveled to the lungs.

Fact Check: Do Overweight People Account For Most COVID-19 Deaths? – Newsweek

Data from more than 160 countries shows a linear correlation between a nation’s COVID mortality and obesity rate, finding that no country with an obesity rate below 40 percent reported high death rates.

For instance, in Vietnam, which has one of the lowest death rates, only about 18 percent of the population qualifies as overweight.

The United States, by contrast, has an obesity rate of about 67 percent and sits at second place in COVID-19 death rates overall at about 152 deaths per 100,000.

But while the WOF’s report finds compelling evidence that countries with higher obesity levels report the most COVID-19 deaths, it does not say that the most global virus deaths occurred in people who were overweight. Rather than looking at the slice of the pie that overweight people make up in overall mortality, the study compares current obesity rates and COVID-19 death rates.

The authors also acknowledge that a country’s age structure, relative wealth and reporting capacity all have an impact on COVID-19 cases.

The Ruling

False.

Being overweight or obese is a leading cause of COVID-19 complications and mortality, but there are no numbers to indicate that the most COVID-related deaths occurred in this population overall.

The report released by the WOF found there were linear correlations between a country’s COVID-19 mortality rate and the proportion of adults who are overweight. It did not break down the percentage of people globally who were overweight and also died from COVID-19.

Scientists in Oregon find a homegrown, and more troubling, version of a variant first identified in the U.K. – New York Times

Scientists in Oregon have identified a homegrown version of a fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus that first surfaced in Britain — but this one has a mutation that may make the variant less susceptible to vaccines.

The researchers have so far found just a single case of this formidable combination, but genetic analysis suggested that the variant had been acquired in the community and did not arise in the patient.

“We didn’t import this from elsewhere in the world — it occurred spontaneously,” said Brian O’Roak, a geneticist at Oregon Health and Science University who led the work. He and his colleagues participate in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s effort to track variants, and they have deposited their results in databases shared by scientists.

The variant originally identified in Britain, called B.1.1.7, has been spreading rapidly across the United States, and accounts for at least 2,500 cases in 46 states. This form of the virus is both more contagious and more deadly than the original version, and is expected to account for most infections in America in a few weeks.

The new version that surfaced in Portland has the same backbone as B.1.1.7, and the mutation it carries — E484K, or “Eek” — is one seen in variants of the virus circulating in South Africa, Brazil and New York City.

Kids Hospitalized With COVID-19 Frequently Have Neuro Symptoms – MedPage

Neurologic symptoms occurred frequently in children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19, a large case series of pediatric patients in the U.S. showed.

Of 1,695 people 21 or younger hospitalized for acute COVID-19 or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), more than one in five — 22% — had neurologic involvement, reported Adrienne Randolph, MD, of Boston Children’s Hospital, and co-authors.

Most symptoms were transient, but 12% of children with neurologic involvement developed life-threatening neurologic disorders, Randolph and colleagues wrote in JAMA Neurology.

“Our findings highlight that neurologic involvement is common in children and adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19,” said co-author Kerri LaRovere, MD, of Boston Children’s Hospital. “Children with underlying neurologic disorders may be at increased risk of neurologic complications, but we also found that many children were previously healthy and did not have prior neurologic conditions,” she told MedPage Today.

Most children and adolescents do not develop severe COVID-19. Reports of life-threatening neurologic involvement in patients developing MIS-C, a rare inflammatory illness temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, have emerged since the pandemic started, with cases rising when infection rates surged.

In their study, Randolph and co-researchers analyzed data from the Overcoming COVID-19 registry of pediatric patients from 61 hospitals in 31 states from March 15 to December 15, 2020. Participants were hospitalized for acute illness and had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and symptoms associated with acute COVID-19, or met CDC criteria for MIS-C. Patients with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection or who had hospitalization or death not related to COVID-19 were excluded.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Worldometers‘ U.S. trend charts suggest the pace of new cases is leveling off, while deaths have finally dipped below the peaks seen last April, though still higher than in the summer’s “second wave.”

England and four other nations approved fast-track regulatory review of modified COVID vaccines to facilitate drug makers’ response to emerging variants of the virus.

The World Health Organization, which sent a team to China to probe origins of COVID-19, is scrapping the group’s interim report.

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

COVID Relief Bill Contains Lots of Healthcare Provisions

Traffic deaths rose in 2020 amid COVID-19

Yes, CDC wants you to prepare for a zombie apocalypse

NIH said two more antibody therapies proved futile in the ACTIV-3 clinical trial.

Some older adults eligible for vaccination continue to “fall through the cracks.”

As Schools Reopen, Popular ‘PE With Joe’ Online Exercise Class Goes Bye-Bye

As States Ease Restrictions, Study Says On-Premises Dining Linked To COVID-19 Spread

Disneyland, other Calif. theme parks could reopen April 1

West Virginia reopening bars, restaurants and retail at full capacity

White House calls new Cuomo nursing home report ‘troubling’

57% of Those Who Won’t Get COVID Vaccine Say They Generally Avoid Them

Cuomo Rebuked By Own Party As Democrats Strip His Emergency Powers

Fact Check: Are COVID-Positive Migrants Allowed to Cross Border Into U.S.?

Arizona’s governor is lifting capacity limits on businesses and restaurants, but masks are still recommended.

Ramping up vaccine production provokes a scramble for syringes around the world.

Dems want to send more jobless benefits. Some workers never got the last round

There’s a deal to move forward with the Covid-19 bill in the Senate. Here’s where things stand now.

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

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