Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 10.8 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 13.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 14.3 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 65,909
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 45,462
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 2,468
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 24.1 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations marginally improved, and deaths improved
- China approves sale of three traditional herbal remedies for use against coronavirus
- Vaccine Breakthrough Cases (Getting COVID After Being Vaccinated) – All Had Mild Or No Symptoms
- San Diego Zoo apes get an experimental animal vaccine against coronavirus
- Ivermectin doesn’t alleviate mild Covid-19 symptoms
- Experts warn US risks delaying ‘normal’ summer
- Austria and Denmark announce plans for vaccine co-operation with Israel
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 24 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 24 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 24 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
China approves sale of three traditional herbal remedies for use against coronavirus – CNN
China has approved three traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products for sale to help treat Covid-19, the government’s National Medical Products Administration announced on Wednesday.
The agency used a special approval procedure to green-light the three products, which “provide more options for Covid-19 treatment,” it said in a statement.
The herbal products come in granular form and trace their origins to “ancient Chinese prescriptions,” said the statement. They were developed from TCM remedies that had been used early in the pandemic, and that were “screened by many academics and experts on the front line.”
The three products are “lung-clearing and detoxing granules,” “dampness-resolving and detoxing granules,” and “lung-diffusing and detoxing granules,” said the statement.
The safety and effectiveness of TCM is still debated in China, where it has both supporters and skeptics. Though many of the remedies in TCM have been in use for hundreds of years, critics argue that there is no verifiable scientific evidence to support their supposed benefits.
In recent years, ancient remedies have been repeatedly hailed as a source of national pride by Chinese President Xi Jinping, himself a well-known TCM advocate.
A popular drug, ivermectin, doesn’t alleviate mild Covid-19 symptoms, a new study says. – New York Times
Ivermectin, an anti-parasitic drug that has been touted as a potential Covid-19 treatment, does not speed recovery in people with mild cases of the disease, according to a randomized controlled trial published in the journal JAMA today.
Ivermectin is typically used to treat parasitic worms in both people and animals. Scientists have previously reported that the drug can prevent some viruses from replicating in cells. Last year, researchers in Australia found that high doses of ivermectin suppressed SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, in cell cultures.
The finding raised hopes that the drug might prove effective against Covid-19, and it has been widely used during the pandemic, especially in Latin America.
But rigorous data on the drug’s effectiveness in people has been lacking, and some scientists suspect that effectively inhibiting the coronavirus may require extremely high, potentially unsafe doses of the drug. The Covid-19 treatment guidelines from the National Institutes of Health note that there is not enough evidence “to recommend either for or against” using the drug in Covid-19 patients.
In the new study, a team of researchers in Colombia randomly assigned more than 400 people who had recently developed mild Covid-19 symptoms to receive a five-day course of either ivermectin or a placebo. They found that Covid-19 symptoms lasted about 10 days, on average, among people who received the drug, compared to 12 days among those who received the placebo, a statistically insignificant difference.
The new trial adds much-needed clinical data to the debate over using the drug to treat Covid-19, said Dr. Regina Rabinovich, a global health researcher at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who was not involved in the study.
MDH Tracking 14 COVID ‘Vaccine Breakthrough Cases’; All Had Mild Or No Symptoms – CBS
Minnesota health officials are looking out for positive cases of COVID-19 after someone has been fully vaccinated.
These types of infections are called “vaccine breakthrough cases.” The Minnesota Department of Health says tracking positive cases 14 days or more after a second vaccine is important. It could help the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention better understand the length of immunity from the vaccines.
Experts warn US risks delaying ‘normal’ summer – The Hill
President Biden‘s announcement that there will be enough vaccines for all adults by May is raising hopes for a return to normal soon.
But the next few months in the pandemic are critical. Concern is growing over moves by some states to lift restrictions already, while new variants of the virus are on the rise in the U.S. Experts warn that actions taken now risk delaying getting back to some semblance of normal.
Health officials are urging restrictions to remain in place for the final stretch, saying that it will not be much longer before the situation markedly improves, and it does not make sense to lift all restrictions when widespread vaccinations are in sight.
Biden on Wednesday issued his most forceful comments to date, calling out the governors of Texas and Mississippi for lifting their states’ mask mandates and all capacity limits on businesses.
He noted that vaccinations for all adults are on the horizon.
“The last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking that in the meantime everything’s fine, take off your mask, forget it,” he said. “It still matters.”
Call to Action on Obesity Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic – Medscape
Hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide from COVID-19 could have been avoided if obesity rates were lower, a new report says.
An analysis by the World Obesity Federation (WOF) found that of the 2.5 million COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of February 2021, almost 90% (2.2 million) were in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight.
The report, released to coincide with World Obesity Day, calls for obesity to be recognized as a disease in its own right around the world, and for people with obesity to be included in priority lists for COVID-19 testing and vaccination.
“Overweight is a highly significant predictor of developing complications from COVID-19, including the need for hospitalization, for intensive care and for mechanical ventilation,” the WOF notes in the report.
It adds that in countries where less than half the adult population is classified as overweight (body mass index > 25 mg/kg2), for example, Vietnam, the likelihood of death from COVID-19 is a small fraction — around one tenth — of the level seen in countries where more than half the population is classified as overweight.
And while it acknowledges that figures for COVID-19 deaths are affected by the age structure of national populations and a country’s relative wealth and reporting capacity, “our findings appear to be independent of these contributory factors. Furthermore, other studies have found that overweight remains a highly significant predictor of the need for COVID-19 healthcare after accounting for these other influences.”
San Diego Zoo apes get an experimental animal vaccine against coronavirus. – New York Times
The San Diego Zoo has given nine apes an experimental coronavirus vaccine developed by Zoetis, a major veterinary pharmaceuticals company.
In January, a troop of gorillas at the zoo’s Safari Park tested positive for the virus. All are recovering, but even so, the zoo requested help from Zoetis in vaccinating other apes. The company provided an experimental vaccine that was initially developed for pets and is now being tested in mink.
Nadine Lamberski, a conservation and wildlife health officer at San Diego Zoo Global, said the zoo vaccinated four orangutans and five bonobos with the experimental vaccine, which is not designed for use in humans.
She said one gorilla at the zoo was also scheduled to be vaccinated, but the gorillas at the wildlife park were a lower priority because they had already tested positive for infection and had recovered. Dr. Lamberski said she would vaccinate the gorillas at the wildlife park if the zoo received more doses of the vaccine.
Mahesh Kumar, senior vice president of global biologics for Zoetis, said the company is increasing production, primarily for its pursuit of a license for a mink vaccine, and will provide more doses to the San Diego and other zoos when possible. “We have already received a number of requests,” he said.
Infection of apes is a major concern for zoos and conservationists. They easily fall prey to human respiratory infections, and common cold viruses have caused deadly outbreaks in chimpanzees in Africa. Genome research has suggested that chimpanzees, gorillas and other apes will be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that has caused the pandemic. Lab researchers are using some monkeys, like macaques, to test drugs and vaccines and develop new treatments for the virus.
Austria and Denmark announce plans for vaccine co-operation with Israel – CNN
Leaders of Israel, Austria and Denmark have announced plans to launch a joint research and development fund towards the possible future production of coronavirus vaccines. The move by the two European countries to partner with Israel follows dissatisfaction at the pace of vaccine distribution in the European Union.
At a joint news conference in Jerusalem, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she was inspired by Israel’s ability to rollout Covid-19 vaccines. She added that along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, she “shared the same vision of timely access to vaccines,” adding, “we cannot allow [ourselves] to be caught off-guard once again.”
Kurz also expressed his desire to make public health policy with a reach beyond the European Union. “We need to co-operate [on vaccines] within the European Union … but we also need to co-operate worldwide,” he said.
Details of the Research and Development fund were still being worked out, Netanyahu said, adding that it was necessary in order to protect people from a future resurgence of the virus or the emergence of further variants.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Brazil is still seeing record-breaking COVID-19 deaths, and now it has its own regional variant of SARS-CoV-2 to worry about.
Pharmaceutical companies are lobbying for sanctions on countries infringing on their intellectual property rights for COVID vaccines.
Australia extends travel ban until mid-June
Mexico admitting visitors in under 2 minutes
US in talks with allies to counter China’s vaccine diplomacy
Italy blocked a shipment of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine from being flown to Australia on Thursday, making good on the European Union’s recent threats to clamp down on exports of the shots and ratcheting up a global tug of war over vaccine supplies.
The E.U.’s drug regulator has begun a formal review of Russia’s Sputnik V shots.
Pope Francis’ planned trip to Iraq raises concerns that it may help spread the virus.
The W.H.O. warns of a resurgence of cases in Central and Eastern Europe.
Slovakia will receive 15,000 AstraZeneca vaccines from France, prime minister says
Cuba announces its vaccine candidate is authorized to begin Phase 3 trials
The Czech Republic becomes the second EU country to ask for China’s Sinopharm vaccine
Germany will extend interval between vaccine doses “to its maximum”
Germany will authorize Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine for over 65s
Canadian experts advise extending vaccine dose interval by up to 4 months
EU regulator begins review of Russian vaccine
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Disney to close at least 60 Disney Stores in North America before end of year
New Yorkers will have to flash ‘COVID-19 passport’ to enter sports arenas and theaters
Major employers including Hyatt, Target, Starbucks, and CVS are keeping mask requirements in Texas despite Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to lift safety restrictions next week.
$350 Billion Covid “Bailout” To States, Cities, And Counties: Here Are Biggest Winners And Losers
Following criticism of this plan, Abbott blamed infections in Texas on recently paroled migrants.
A new pilot program involving more than a dozen insurance companies aims to vaccinate 2 million of the nation’s most vulnerable seniors by assisting them with transportation and registration and addressing vaccine hesitancy.
The vast majority of COVID deaths have been in countries where more than half of all adults are overweight.
Scientists say they have a more efficient way to test for SARS-CoV-2 in a community’s wastewater, according to a paper in the mSystems journal.
San Diego Zoo’s orangutans and bonobos have received a coronavirus vaccine made specially for animals.
Super Bowl 55 not a super spreader in Tampa
Navy moves nearly 200 to hotels in Annapolis after jump in COVID-19 cases
Mississippi Only State to See Spike in COVID Cases Over Past Week
Is It Fair for Low Income Communities to get the “Third Best” Vaccine?
The United States is now averaging 2 million vaccine doses administered per day.
In New York, as shoppers went online, Amazon went on a warehouse-buying spree.
A study conducted by JAMA Cardiology found that 0.6% of professional athletes in the U.S. suffer from inflammatory heart disease after recovering from their Covid-19 diagnosis.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
27 February 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Increased This Week For A Change
January 2021 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Improvement Continues
4Q2020 Final Headline Productivity Contracts
27 February 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves
February 2021 Job Cuts Decline
COVID-19 Revealed How Sick The US Health Care Delivery System Really Is
To Be Effective, The Vaccination Race Must Be Global
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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