Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 3.6 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 13.3 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.6 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 58,812
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 46,738
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,566
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 23.0 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases were little changed, hospitalizations little changed, and deaths marginally improved [note: this is a sign of trend reversal – could the new variants be impacting COVID case growth?>
- Herd Immunity Is a Dangerous Idea
- ‘Premature,’ ‘unrealistic’ COVID-19 will end soon
- Chinese vaccines sweep much of the world
- Ed Snowden On Power Of Silicon Valley Amid COVID Lockdowns
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 23 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 23 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 23 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Chinese vaccines sweep much of the world, despite concerns – AP
The plane laden with vaccines had just rolled to a stop at Santiago’s airport in late January, and Chile’s president, Sebastián Piñera, was beaming. “Today,” he said, “is a day of joy, emotion and hope.”
The source of that hope: China – a country that Chile and dozens of other nations are depending on to help rescue them from the COVID-19 pandemic.
China’s vaccine diplomacy campaign has been a surprising success: It has pledged roughly half a billion doses of its vaccines to more than 45 countries, according to a country-by-country tally by The Associated Press. With just four of China’s many vaccine makers claiming they are able to produce at least 2.6 billion doses this year, a large part of the world’s population will end up inoculated not with the fancy Western vaccines boasting headline-grabbing efficacy rates, but with China’s humble, traditionally made shots.
Amid a dearth of public data on China’s vaccines, hesitations over their efficacy and safety are still pervasive in the countries depending on them, along with concerns about what China might want in return for deliveries. Nonetheless, inoculations with Chinese vaccines already have begun in more than 25 countries, and the Chinese shots have been delivered to another 11, according to the AP tally, based on independent reporting in those countries along with government and company announcements.
It’s a potential face-saving coup for China, which has been determined to transform itself from an object of mistrust over its initial mishandling of the COVID-19 outbreak to a savior. Like India and Russia, China is trying to build goodwill, and has pledged roughly 10 times more vaccines abroad than it has distributed at home.
… China has said it is supplying “vaccine aid” to 53 countries and exports to 27, but it rejected a request by the AP for the list. Beijing has also denied vaccine diplomacy, and a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said China considered the vaccine a “global public good.” Chinese experts reject any connection between the export of its vaccines and the revamping of its image.
… China has targeted the low- and middle-income countries largely left behind as rich nations scooped up most of the pricey vaccines produced by the likes of Pfizer and Moderna. And despite a few delays of its own in Brazil and Turkey, China has largely capitalized on slower-than-hoped-for deliveries by U.S. and European vaccine makers.
Herd Immunity Is a Dangerous Idea – Frontiers
There are several objections that have been made to the idea of opening up society to achieve natural herd immunity (223–226).
First, an objection is that natural herd immunity assumes the immunity is long lasting, and this may not be the case (223–226). If immunity is short-lived, then COVID-19 may become an endemic and likely yearly viral infection as predicted by Kissler et al. (2). In the event of short-lived immunity it may still be important to achieve natural herd immunity to protect the high-risk groups (i.e., older people) now and yearly (until a vaccine is widely available) without recurrent and prolonged lockdowns that devastate the economy and thus population life-expectancy and wellbeing. Notably, if immunity is not long-lasting this will be a problem for possible vaccine induced herd immunity as well, as the world population will need vaccines to be produced and delivered everywhere at least each year.
Second, another objection is that the costs in deaths, mental and physical health and suffering, socioeconomic inequities, and harming the economy will be too high (223, 224). This objection ignores the discussion above of the trade-offs involved that include not only COVID-19 direct effects, but also indirect effects of the response to COVID-19, the collateral damage and cost-benefit analysis where it was shown that the costs of all these effects is in fact much higher with lockdowns.
Third is the objection that uncontrolled transmission in younger people would inevitably result in infections in high-risk groups with high mortality (223–226). The ability to successfully shield continuing care facilities and hospitals from COVID-19 is questioned (223, 224). Prolonged isolation of high-risk groups is said to be “unethical (page e71)” (223). The objection is odd, as if we cannot protect those in nursing homes nor hospitals, why are we using personal protective equipment at all? In addition, prolonged isolation of all groups is what has occurred now, and based on the cost-benefit analysis this is what is unethical by causing far more harm to all, including the high-risk older population. Of course, infection can still spread to high-mortality populations; however, the goal is to reduce this risk. Moreover, <10% of the population is at high-risk, accounting for >90% of potential deaths; surely we can focus on protecting this subgroup of people (219). Early monitoring in Europe shows that despite increasing COVID-19 cases, excess mortality has only shown a slight increase, suggesting protection of the most vulnerable may be feasible (227). Modeling has also suggested that social distancing of those over 70 years of age would prevent more deaths than a fixed duration of social distancing of the entire population (228).
Fourth is the objection that healthcare systems will be overwhelmed by uncontrolled spread (223, 224). This is a worrisome possibility, as health-care providers may be forced to make painful rationing decisions. If a healthcare system is overwhelmed, the effects would have to be extreme to make the benefit of lockdowns to save ICU capacity comparable to the long-term costs. There are several ways to minimize this possibility, including a focus on protecting those at high-risk (see below), information dissemination to cause fast awareness of voluntary sensible self-imposed use of handwashing and (in crowded areas) masks (229, 230), limiting very large gatherings, and expanding critical care capacity when necessary. Forecasting of healthcare capacity needs in the short or medium term, even when built directly on data and for next day predictions, has consistently failed, and most healthcare systems were not overwhelmed despite sometimes being stressed with high peaks of cases (219, 231). Forecasting failure led to frail older patients being discharged to nursing homes (where there was high mortality), and largely empty wards (unnecessarily affecting hospital utilization for other serious conditions); in Canada “overall ICU occupancy rates did not exceed 65% (page 12)” (45, 219). Lockdowns in anticipation of forecast healthcare incapacity should not be done, especially if based on forecasting that is not released for public scrutiny nor repeatedly fit to real-time data to verify accuracy. In addition, if there are insufficient ICU beds for the population due to underfunding, the effects of the recession on government healthcare spending in the future will markedly adversely worsen this situation in the long-term.
Fifth is the objection that natural herd immunity is not achievable (223–226). This is based on the few case reports of re-infection, the Brazilian city of Manaus where adjusted seroprevalence was up to 66% yet there is currently a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, and the claim that natural herd-immunity has never occurred. The seven published case reports of re-infection, four with symptoms (one requiring hospitalization, and one death in an immunocompromised 89 year-old with few details reported), when 10% of the world population has likely been infected over the past 10 months cannot yet provide evidence that severe reinfection and contagion is at all common (232–237). This also applies to a more recent review finding 17 cases of reinfection reported of whom 3 were hospitalized and the one died (238). Regarding Manaus, the high seroprevalence likely reflected the special situation of a relatively homogeneous cohort of people in overcrowded low socioeconomic urban situations, with reliance on crowded long riverboat travel; now there seems to be a different demographic cohort of young wealthy individuals being exposed (239–241). The resurgence of cases in Manaus was described as follows: “from the second week of August there has been a small increase in the number of cases which, at the time of writing, has begun to decline (page 3)” (241). In addition, the peak seroprevalence in blood donors in Manaus was 51.8% in June, while another study of household seroprevalence in Manaus on May 14-21 found this to be 12.7% (the respective numbers for São Paulo were closer, at 6.9 and 3.3% in the two serosurveys) (241, 242). Even correcting for a possible lower sensitivity of capillary blood used in the household survey does not explain the difference, as the corrected seroprevalence might be up to 19.3% (243). Regarding historical natural herd-immunity, it is likely that this was achieved for several infections, with outbreaks that occurred as births added sufficient numbers of new susceptible young individuals (e.g., for Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Pertussis, Chickenpox, Polio) (244, 245). The current vaccines are given intramuscular, and thus do not induce mucosal IgA responses thought necessary to prevent upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 infection (246). These vaccines have unknown efficacy on infection and infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 in those protected from COVID-19 symptoms (246–248). Herd immunity is premised on the efficacy of immunity in preventing transmission (244), and it is possible that current vaccines will have little effect on this.
How Does the Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Compare to Other Coronavirus Vaccines? – Naked Capitalism
We are running this post for one reason: as this article stresses, the testing of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines was conducted much earlier, when fewer variants were out and about. Therefore the Johnson & Johnson vaccine efficacy gives a much more realistic of what you could expect in terms of protection now.
So far, with Pfizer and Moderna, all we have are airy assurances and largely in vitro studies against the new variants. Both companies have discussed the notion of a third “booster: shot to contend with known new variants, which looks an awful lot like an admission that they suspect or even know the efficacy of their current offerings is meaningfully lower against some of the new variants.
Another way the efficacy data may not be comparable is in how they screened for Covid infections. Astra Zeneca tested all its clinical trial participants every week. By contrast, Pfizer used the dodgy approach of testing ONLY participants who developed “severe respiratory symptoms”. That means they ignored cases with loss of smell, the most reliable indicator of Covid, ones with digestive symptoms. and other symptom combinations that the CDC (and people I know) have found to be signals of Covid onset: fever, chills, headache, fatigute. And the “severe respiratory infection” only screen also means Pfizer did not catch mild or asymptomatic cases, even though we know they can do serious damage. From CBS News:
A Texas trauma surgeon says it’s rare that X-rays from any of her COVID-19 patients come back without dense scarring. Dr. Brittany Bankhead-Kendall tweeted, “Post-COVID lungs look worse than any type of terrible smoker’s lung we’ve ever seen. And they collapse. And they clot off. And the shortness of breath lingers on… & on… & on.”
“Everyone’s just so worried about the mortality thing and that’s terrible and it’s awful,” she told CBS Dallas-Fort Worth. “But man, for all the survivors and the people who have tested positive this is — it’s going to be a problem.”
Bankhead-Kendall, an assistant professor of surgery with Texas Tech University, in Lubbock, has treated thousands of patients since the pandemic began in March.
She says patients who’ve had COVID-19 symptoms show a severe chest X-ray every time, and those who were asymptomatic show a severe chest X-ray 70% to 80% of the time.
In other words, I’m sufficiently suspicious of the Pfizer efficacy numbers as to be willing to give Johnson & Johnson a go, particularly with its one-shot drill.
[editor’s note: This article goes on and has more meat – it deserves a full read]
Ed Snowden On Power Of Silicon Valley Amid COVID Lockdowns – YouTube
A new video montage of recent interviews with former NSA contractor and whistleblower Edward Snowden exposes how the global COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns – which have been particularly severe and far-reaching in Western countries like the UK, Canada, and in a number of major US cities – coupled with the already immense power of Silicon Valley and its allies in the national security state, has served to keep individuals and entire populations ‘gated off’ from one another. “This is just the beginning,” Snowden warns of these unprecedented times. “All of these things today have consequences which we are not informed about.”
“I would say this is sort of unusual… we’re all spread all over the world in different rooms, everybody’s locked up… but for me this is how I’ve always lived.” He narrates that so much of our life is “intermediated by the screens.” Increasingly our lives are “intermediated by these screens. We spend less time outside and more and more time staring into glass or through glass to connect with that larger world – something beyond ourselves.”
Ultimately he poses the following questions as a warning in the video entitled, “Edward Snowden 2021: The Most VICIOUS HONEST 10 Minutes of your LIFE!”… “Increasingly it feels something distinct from us, something apart from us – something that we are witnessing rather than participating in. Ask yourself: Is this your will? Is this what you want? Did you agree to this? Is this consistent with the vision of the future you want to see?
‘Premature,’ ‘unrealistic’ COVID-19 will end soon – AP
A senior World Health Organization official said Monday it was “premature” and “unrealistic” to think the pandemic might be stopped by the end of the year, but that the recent arrival of effective vaccines could at least help dramatically reduce hospitalizations and death.
The world’s singular focus right now should be to keep transmission of COVID-19 as low as possible, said Dr. Michael Ryan, director of WHO’s emergencies program.
“If we’re smart, we can finish with the hospitalizations and the deaths and the tragedy associated with this pandemic” by the end of the year, he said at media briefing.
Ryan said WHO was reassured by emerging data that many of the licensed vaccines appear to be helping curb the virus’ explosive spread.
“If the vaccines begin to impact not only on death and not only on hospitalization, but have a significant impact on transmission dynamics and transmission risk, then I believe we will accelerate toward controlling this pandemic.”
But Ryan warned against complacency, saying that nothing was guaranteed in an evolving epidemic.
“Right now the virus is very much in control,” he said.
WHO’s director-general, meanwhile, said it was “regrettable” that younger and healthier adults in some rich countries are being vaccinated against the coronavirus before at-risk health workers in developing countries.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
COVID-19 pandemic fuels attacks on health workers globally
Israel’s Supreme Court on Monday ordered an end to a controversial surveillance program to track COVID-19 infections through cellular phone location data, citing concerns about the country spying on its own citizens.
As Pandemic Eases Elsewhere, Still Severe Outbreaks in Caribbean
Over 60% of Russians Don’t Want Sputnik V Vaccine: Poll
Ukraine Discards Unused Vaccine; Doctors Skip Own Vaccinations
Amid Scramble for COVID-19 Vaccine, Latin America Turns to Russia
EU to Propose Vaccine Certificates in Time for Summer Holidays
Japan Says China’s Anal Swab Tests Cause Distress, Asks for Them to Stop
A variant in Brazil infected many who had already recovered from Covid-19
China is aiming to vaccinate 40 percent of its population by June
Germany plans to extend its coronavirus lockdown until March 28, but will allow small private gatherings from Monday, Reuters reported.
As the European Union struggles to ramp up its rollout of coronavirus vaccines across the 27 member bloc, Russia’s Covid shot is proving alluring to its friends in Eastern Europe, creating another potential rift in the region.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
CVS, Walgreens Look for Big Data Reward From Covid-19 Vaccinations
Royal Caribbean will be ‘first’ to offer ‘fully vaccinated’ cruise with sailings starting in Israel
Op-Ed: Why You Should Trust the COVID Vax
Single doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines led to “substantial” reduction in risk of illness for people 70 and up, though less than previously seen with two doses, according to an unreviewed manuscript posted online by British researchers Monday.
Merck, which dropped out of the COVID vaccine race after its candidate flopped, is reportedly offering to manufacture Johnson & Johnson’s.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) reached agreement with legislators on a multibillion-dollar school reopening plan.
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump received their COVID vaccinations in January at the White House.
Researchers call a halt to another convalescent plasma trial, this one in outpatients, determining it had little chance of showing benefit.
Connecticut plans to base COVID vaccine eligibility “strictly on age,” scrapping plans for more targeted distribution — simpler, but is it fair?
Many states prioritized COVID-19 vaccines for people over 75, then moved to those over 65, but they shouldn’t keep stepping down by age, an advisory committee to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday
White House says weekly vaccine doses will increase to 15.2 million
Murthy vows to focus on mental health effects of pandemic if confirmed as surgeon general
Brazil variant shown to infect some coronavirus survivors with immunity
First case against mandatory vaccination filed in New Mexico
Scientists Discover Why COVID-19 Is Much More Infectious Than SARS In 2003
Calif. Teachers Union Calls Reopening Plan Recipe for ‘Structural Racism’
Man, 23, Paralyzed by COVID-Linked Disorder Home After Months in Hospital
San Francisco Mayor London Breed said Tuesday the city will let movie theaters and gyms reopen at a reduced capacity within 24 hours, NBC Bay Area reported.
New figures released by Public Health England show that the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines are highly effective in reducing Covid infections among people age 70 years and over.
Airlines are preparing for a rebound after dismal pandemic year
US Chamber of Commerce warns Biden’s rescue plan isn’t targeted enough
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
January 2021 CoreLogic Home Prices: Appreciation Reaches Double Digits This Month
Contrasting U.S. And European Job Markets During COVID-19
An In-Depth Look At Mortgage Forbearance Data
Infographic Of The Day: COVID-19 Vaccine Doses – Who’s Got At Least One?
Countries With The Highest COVID-19 Death Toll
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 01 March 2021 Up 28 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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