Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 17.6 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 14.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 34.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 56,044
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 55,403
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,413
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 19.2 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations marginally worsened, and deaths worsened
- Hopefully, these current improving COVID situation will remain in play even with the new strains
- COVID Vaccines Must Work Against Old and New Strains
- Why The Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Has Gotten A Bad Rap – And Why That’s Not Fair
- What You Need to Know About the COVID Vaccine and Blood Thinners
- Not to be sniffed at: Agony of post-COVID-19 loss of smell
- Myocardial Injury Seen on MRI in 54% of Recovered COVID
- Stop Stressing Post-Vax Risk of Spreading Coronavirus
- How a 1960s discovery in Yellowstone made millions of COVID-19 PCR tests possible
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 19 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 19 % [it is unstudied whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 19 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
COVID Vaccines Must Work Against Old and New Strains – MedPage
COVID-19 vaccines modified to work against circulating virus variants should have clinical immunogenicity studies supporting their effectiveness, and ensure they work not only against the variant strain, but the initial strain, the FDA said in modified guidance on Monday.
Manufacturers will also need to conduct booster studies, where the modified vaccine is given to those already vaccinated with the initial vaccine, to measure immune response in those individuals as well.
While the agency also updated guidance about therapeutics, such as monoclonal antibodies, and diagnostic testing related to virus mutations, discussion of vaccines dominated a call with reporters Monday afternoon.
Peter Marks, MD, PhD, director of the FDA Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said the FDA would ultimately like to see if “immune response is comparable against the new variant [and] also make sure it’s safe to boost those who have already been vaccinated.”
These studies would include several hundred people and would likely take a few months to complete, Marks said. He likened the process of potentially switching out a different strain in a vaccine to combat against COVID-19 variants to the process used to develop vaccines for pandemic influenza strains.
“We need to have studies conducted to facilitate potential strain changes, so if we need to swap something in, we can do it in a relatively quick manner because variants can move through the population quickly,” he said. “Ideally, the studies we describe in the guidance describe how we would like manufacturers to work to see if the vaccine … can cover for an existing strain … and not have to make a bivalent or multivalent vaccine.”
Marks noted that once studies were in hand, when to trigger swapping out strains for new variants would involve consultation with global colleagues and input from FDA vaccine advisory committees, as well as weighing the risks and benefits before ramping up a production change.
“This is a global problem and variants in one location seem to be making [their way] to other locations fairly quickly,” he added.
How a 1960s discovery in Yellowstone made millions of COVID-19 PCR tests possible – USA Today
Like so many great scientific discoveries, Tom Brock started the research that would go on to revolutionize the field of biology – and pave the road to the development of the gold-standard COVID-19 tests used to fight a pandemic – with a question.
In 1964, the microbiologist was driving out West when he stopped to visit Yellowstone National Park. It was the first time he saw the park’s picturesque hot springs.
“I got to the thermal area and I saw all these colors of what were obviously microbes,” said Brock, then a professor at Indiana University. “No one seemed to know much about them.”
As the water in the hot springs flowed out from the pools, it was cooling, creating a range of temperatures and environments for bacteria to grow. But in the hottest parts of the springs, where temperatures ranged from 70 Celsius to above 100 Celsius – the boiling point of water – the springs were clear, thought to be uninhabitable.
Brock wanted to know more about the bacteria and to see if any were living in the hottest waters.
The next summer, he returned to Yellowstone with a student research team and a grant from the National Science Foundation to research life at high temperatures. It was the start of what would become a decade of work studying the park’s microscopic creatures.
Brock was performing what’s called basic research. He did not know for sure where the work would lead him or how his findings might be used in the future. The goal was as vague as it was grand: to advance scientific understanding about the organisms living in one of Earth’s most extreme environments.
In doing so, he changed the world.
… As the news of the discovery spread, biochemists across the country started to research Thermus aquaticus’ inner workings, Brock wrote in a 1997 article for the Genetics Society of America.
Brock and Freeze soon realized that the bacteria’s enzymes – proteins that carry out chemical reactions inside of a cell – kept working in temperatures that were even higher than the boiling point of water. Enzymes from other organisms can’t tolerate such heat; they lose their structure and stop working, like an egg that changes its form when placed in a hot frying pan.
One of Thermus aquaticus’ enzymes is today the key ingredient in the polymerase chain reaction – PCR – which laboratories around the world are using to detect the virus that causes COVID-19.
PCR, a technique developed by biochemist Kary Mullis in the 1980s, is a staple procedure used to diagnose diseases. PCR also plays a role in helping scientists detect DNA left at crime scenes, sequence genomes and track mutations like those in SARS-CoV-2, and determine a person’s ancestry or a dog’s breed.
Not to be sniffed at: Agony of post-COVID-19 loss of smell – AP
A year into the coronavirus pandemic, doctors and researchers are still striving to better understand and treat the accompanying epidemic of COVID-19-related anosmia – loss of smell – draining much of the joy of life from an increasing number of sensorially frustrated longer-term sufferers like Forgione.
Even specialist doctors say there is much about the condition they still don’t know and they are learning as they go along in their diagnoses and treatments. Impairment and alteration of smell have become so common with COVID-19 that some researchers suggest that simple odor tests could be used to track coronavirus infections in countries with few laboratories.
For most people, the olfactory problems are temporary, often improving on their own in weeks. But a small minority are complaining of persistent dysfunction long after other COVID-19 symptoms have disappeared. Some have reported continued total or partial loss of smell six months after infection. The longest, some doctors say, are now approaching a full year.
Researchers working on the vexing disability say they are optimistic that most will eventually recover but fear some will not. Some doctors are concerned that growing numbers of smell-deprived patients, many of them young, could be more prone to depression and other difficulties and weigh on strained health systems.
Why The Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Has Gotten A Bad Rap – And Why That’s Not Fair – NPR
Two COVID-19 vaccines are being distributed in the U.S. right now, and this week an FDA advisory committee will vote on whether a third should join them.
If granted emergency use authorization, Johnson & Johnson’s one-dose vaccine would become available in the U.S., along with those from Pfizer and Moderna.
In clinical trials, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine appears to be 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe cases of COVID-19 – compared to about 95% for Moderna and Pfizer. That has some people wondering if they should avoid the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Absolutely not, says Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.
“What I’ve been saying to my family is, as soon as the J&J vaccine is authorized, if that’s what you can get, you should get it as soon as it’s your turn in line,” says Jha.
He points out that the 66% vs. 95% effectiveness isn’t the right comparison for several reasons. He notes that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was tested in different settings – the U.S., several Latin American countries and South Africa, where some worrisome variants of the virus were first seen.
“So that 66% number really represents an amalgamation of a variety of different clinical trials. Moderna and Pfizer were not tested in those circumstances,” Jha tells All Things Considered. “And even if you just look at the U.S. data, the Johnson & Johnson number then starts getting much closer to the Moderna and Pfizer numbers.”
But all of that misses what Jha says is the most important point.
“What you care about is hospitalizations and deaths,” he says. “And Johnson & Johnson appears to be just as good as Moderna and Pfizer at preventing those.”
Myocardial Injury Seen on MRI in 54% of Recovered COVID – Medscape
About half of 148 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection and elevated troponin levels had at least some evidence of myocardial injury on cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging 2 months later, a new study shows.
“Our results demonstrate that in this subset of patients surviving severe COVID-19 and with troponin elevation, ongoing localized myocardial inflammation, whilst less frequent than previously reported, remains present in a proportion of patients and may represent an emerging issue of clinical relevance,” write Marianna Fontana, MD, PhD, from University College London, and colleagues.
The cardiac abnormalities identified were classified as nonischemic (including “myocarditis-like” late gadolinium enhancement [LGE]) in 26% of the cohort; as related to ischemic heart disease (infarction or inducible ischemia) in 22%; and as dual pathology in 6%.
Left ventricular (LV) function was normal in 89% of the 148 patients. In the 17 patients (11%) with LV dysfunction, only four had an ejection fraction below 35%. Of the nine patients whose LV dysfunction was related to myocardial infarction, six had a known history of ischemic heart disease.
No patients with “myocarditis-pattern” LGE had regional wall motion abnormalities, and neither admission nor peak troponin values were predictive of the diagnosis of myocarditis.
The results were published online February 18 in the European Heart Journal.
Taking a “glass half full” approach, cosenior author Graham D. Cole, MD, PhD, noted on Twitter that nearly half the patients had no major cardiac abnormalities on CMR just 2 months after a bout with troponin-positive COVID-19.
What You Need to Know About the COVID Vaccine and Blood Thinners – Newsweek
As new COVID vaccines are rolled out across the U.S., some people want to know if it is safe for those who take blood thinning drugs to have the shot.
On Tuesday morning ET, Google searches around this topic spiked as people sought out information.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is safe for people with underlying medical conditions to have COVID vaccines if they had not had an immediate or severe allergic reaction to any of the ingredients in the vaccine, or to the shot itself previously.
People with underlying medical conditions can receive the FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines as long as they have not had an immediate or severe allergic reaction to a COVID-19 vaccine or to any of the ingredients in the vaccine.
Evidence suggests it is safe for people who take blood thinners to have the COVID vaccine. However people on this medication are advised to be aware of the fact they may experience some bruising around the injection site, and there is also some risk of bleeding.
Vaccine manufacturer Moderna advises people who take blood thinning medication to mention this to their vaccination provider before they receive the jab. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration offers similar advice for the Pfizer COVID vaccine.
Clot Connect, a blood clot information service run by the University of Carolina’s Blood Research Center, states “patients should not avoid the COVID vaccination because they are on a blood thinner.”
Two studies confirm a new variant in California is more contagious, but the scale of its threat is unclear. – New York Times
A variant first discovered in California in December is more contagious than earlier forms of the coronavirus, two new studies have shown, fueling concerns that emerging mutants like this one could hamper the sharp decline in cases over all in the state and perhaps elsewhere.
In one of the new studies, researchers found that the variant has spread rapidly in a San Francisco neighborhood in the past couple of months. The other report confirmed that the variant has surged across the state, and revealed that it produces twice as many viral particles inside a person’s body as other variants do. That study also hinted that the variant may be better than others at evading the immune system – and vaccines.
“I wish I had better news to give you – that this variant is not significant at all,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a virologist at the University of California, San Francisco. “But unfortunately, we just follow the science.”
Neither study has yet been published in a scientific journal. And experts don’t know how much of a public health threat this variant poses compared with others that are also spreading in California.
A variant called B.1.1.7 arrived in the United States from Britain, where it swiftly became the dominant form of the virus and overloaded hospitals there. Studies of British medical records suggest that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible, but more lethal than earlier variants.
Some experts said the new variant in California was concerning, but unlikely to create as much of a burden as B.1.1.7.
“I’m increasingly convinced that this one is transmitting more than others locally,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health who was not involved in the research. “But there’s not evidence to suggest that it’s in the same ballpark as B.1.1.7.”
[editor’s note: also read Studies Examine Variant Surging in California, and the News Isn’t Good – this is the post where the headline I used in today’s article came from]
Stop Stressing Post-Vax Risk of Spreading Coronavirus – MedPage
Recent public messaging harps on the idea that people can still become infected and transmit COVID-19 after they get vaccinated. While that is a risk, it’s an extremely low risk, and not worth the negative consequence: it’s stopping people from getting vaccinated.
People are using the idea that others can spread the virus after being vaccinated to claim that the vaccine does not work and therefore should not be taken. I have spoken with people who have done just that.
Vaccine trials measure how many people get infected after vaccination. Take for example the Moderna vaccine trial, published in the New England Journal of Medicine beginning in November with follow-up publications extending through February. In that trial they randomized 15,210 people to the vaccine and 15,210 people to placebo. Of those who got the placebo, 185 developed COVID-19. Therefore, 1.2% got COVID-19. Thirty of those became very ill. Of those who got the vaccine, 11 developed COVID-19. None of them got very ill. Therefore, 0.07% got COVID-19. So, the vaccine was effective: it prevented illness and it prevented serious illness.
The efficacy of the vaccine is quoted as 94%. That figure is arrived at by dividing 0.07 by 1.2, which equals 6%. Subtracting that from 100% equals 94%. This math can be worked in different ways but the bottom line is that 11 of 15,210 became mildly ill with COVID-19 after the vaccine. Those 11 could spread the illness. But 11 out of 15,210 is a very low number. But that is 22 out of about 30,000 and 44 out of about 60,000. So it is true that some might spread COVID-19 after the vaccination but it is also true that the risk of that is very low.
We also know that the spread of COVID-19 is greater when patients are sicker, when they are sneezing and coughing, and have evidence of a stronger infection. Those with mild or asymptomatic disease are less likely to spread the illness. Therefore, by reducing symptoms, that vaccine reduces viral spread, though perhaps not completely.
The COVID-19 vaccine trials did not directly evaluate the possibility of spread after vaccination. That is difficult to do. Do you follow those 11 to see if they come in contact with anyone and spread it? If they don’t do you conclude that it can’t be spread or do you conclude that they didn’t come in contact with vulnerable people under vulnerable conditions? Determining the risk of spread probably can’t be done in a realistic manner.
… Another way to approach this issue of whether the vaccine prevents spread is to consider what happens with other vaccines. When we give the flu vaccine do we find that those who get the vaccine contract the flu and pass it on to others at a clinically significant rate? The answer is no. Can it happen? The answer is yes. The flu vaccine, like the COVID-19 vaccine, is not perfect. But it is highly effective. The same holds for the smallpox vaccine (smallpox is now obliterated from the planet by vaccination), the polio vaccine, and others. Even when vaccines are not perfect they can be highly effective. Therefore, to harp on the rare possibility of spreading COVID-19 after vaccination is to focus on what is unlikely to happen rather than to focus on what is likely to happen — that it will work very well.
… This messaging is in part driven by the fact that we live in a media age that needs talking points. To say that the vaccine is effective is not a dramatic talking point. But as soon as you suggest that it may not work for spread of the illness, people prick up their ears.
Experts fall prey to the same psychology. Such talking points allow them to go on television and pontificate. Some experts even like to make things more complicated than they need to be, and some have great fears about being seen as wrong. One way to avoid that is to equivocate, to harp on what we don’t know because to be too definitive is to run the risk of someone finding one example of spread and then say, “Look, he was wrong.” Which then escalates into, “He doesn’t know what he is talking about.” Which escalates into, “He is an idiot.” Which escalates into “experts don’t know what they are talking about.” This happened with Dr. Fauci: he made a few minor mistakes and that prompted some to go after him in this manner. That underhanded approach was also used in politics over the last four years.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Cases are plummeting worldwide and just six nations — the U.S., U.K., South Africa, Brazil, Germany, Colombia — make up the bulk of the decline.
Not out of the woods: France, which recorded its highest number of ICU patients in nearly 3 months, and Greece, where doctors are striking to protest “suffocating conditions” on the COVID-19 front lines.
Bulgaria Begins Mass-Vaccination Effort; All Welcome To Line Up In ‘Green Corridors’
China’s COVID Vaccines Trusted by Just 1.3 Percent of Taiwanese: Poll
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) responded to CNN’s exclusive report on how the World Health Organization (WHO) panel will recommend “deeper” study of early Covid-19 clues, saying that Chinese experts conducted “lots of virus tracing work.”
Scotland’s plan to slowly lift restrictions starts with schools.
As the pandemic took hold, suicide rose among Japanese women.
India begins shipping AstraZeneca vaccine doses across Africa
Stockholm urges residents not to travel and recommends masks on public transport
Risky business? Mexico is trying to balance the pandemic and its vital tourism income
First batch of Russia’s Sputnik V shot is delivered to Mexico
Japan appoints Minister for Loneliness to combat rising suicide rate
Oman to suspend incoming flights from 10 countries amid spread of Covid-19 variants
Covid-19 is likely to be a problem “for the next few winters,” says England’s chief medical officer
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Biden changes PPP loans to target smallest businesses
US border closures extended through March 21
The COVID-19 death toll in the United States surpassed 500,000, all but matching the number of Americans killed in World War II, Korea and Vietnam combined.
Vaccine Study: Two U.K. studies showed that vaccination programs are contributing to a sharp drop in hospitalizations, boosting hopes that the shots will work as well in the real world as they have in carefully controlled studies. Preliminary results from a study in Scotland found that the Pfizer vaccine reduced hospital admissions up to 85% four weeks after the first dose, while the AstraZeneca shot cut admissions up to 94%. In England, preliminary data from a study of health care workers showed that the Pfizer vaccine reduced the risk of catching COVID-19 by 70% after one dose, a figure that rose to 85% after the second.
COVID Vax Misinformation May Be Our Worst Enemy
The Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) changed course on tocilizumab (Actemra), and now conditionally recommends the IL-6 blocker on top of standard care for hospitalized patients with worsening severe or critical COVID-19.
President Biden ordered flags to be flown at half-mast until Friday to mark the half-million lives lost to COVID-19; the grim marker comes a little over a year since the first known death from COVID-19.
The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley apologized after it turned away two people eligible for the shot for not showing proof of residency, which is not required per state guidance.
Johnson & Johnson says it will provide 20 million doses of its one-shot coronavirus vaccine by the end of March, pending FDA emergency authorization.
Johnson & Johnson says it’s ready to ship 4 million doses in US upon emergency use authorization
Sanofi announced it would offer manufacturing support for Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine.
The federal government needs to make it easier for community health centers and other vaccine distribution locations to report on how many vaccines they have distributed, Lathran Woodard told the House Committee on Oversight and Reform on the coronavirus crisis. “We’re having provider burnout because of the hassle of having to individually enter each vaccine,”
Health officials in Texas were optimistic that vaccine distribution would get back on track by the end of the week.
Woman got COVID-19 from transplanted lungs
Dan Diamond for the Washington Post reported that Vivek Murthy, MD, nominated for Surgeon General and to help the Biden COVID-19 response, received 2.6 million dollars in pandemic consulting fees and speaking engagements since January 2020. Murthy received $400,000 from Carnival cruise lines for consulting, over $400,000 in cash and another $400,000 worth of stock from Airbnb, nearly $300,000 from Estee Lauder, and $600,000 from Netflix.
105-year-old who recovered from COVID-19 credits gin-soaked raisins for breakfast
Boy Has Arms, Legs Amputated After Developing COVID-Linked Condition MIS-C
As virus cases decline across the U.S., the East Coast lags behind.
“States will now receive 14.5 million doses this week, up from 8.6 million doses per week when the President took office. That’s an increase in vaccine allocations of nearly 70% during the Biden Harris administration,” [White House press secretary Jen Psaki ]Psaki said at a White House briefing.
The United States can expect to see a total of 240 million doses of Covid-19 vaccine by the end of March, according to prepared remarks drug companies will deliver to a House subcommittee today.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 22 February 2021 Up 16 Cents From A Year Ago
February 2021 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Unchanged
February 2021 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Again Improved
Did Subsidies To Too-Big-To-Fail Banks Increase During The COVID-19 Pandemic?
Fueled By Stimulus Checks, U.S. Retail Sales Burst Into 2021
Vaccine Inequality Would Create Added Misery For All And Trillions Additional Costs
One Month In, How Biden Has Changed Disaster Management And The US COVID-19 Response
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts – in the U.S. and around the world – decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu – as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent – is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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