Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 23.0 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 13.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 6.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 99,511
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 71,504
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at a record 5,443 [includes more than 2,400 backlogged deaths from Ohio]
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 13.4 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths worsened
- Hopefully, these current improving COVID trends will remain in play even with the new strains
- White House says it’s not looking to require COVID-19 tests before domestic flights
- The Pentagon has approved 20 more military teams, a combined total of 4,700 service members, to help the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administer COVID-19 vaccines across the country.
- Almost all US kids live in Covid-19 “red” zones under new CDC school guidance
- The long-term neurologic symptoms such as “brain fog” experienced by some patients with COVID-19 may be caused by a unique pathology — the occlusion of brain capillaries by large megakaryocyte cells
- Scientists Hoping to Prevent Next Pandemic With Pan-Coronavirus Vaccine
- Fatigue, headaches and chest pain: Medical experts try to establish ‘long Covid’ diagnosis for patients with lasting symptoms
- COVID Vaccine for Migraine Patients?
- $1,400 stimulus checks would help 22.6 million pay bills through mid-July
- After you get a COVID-19 vaccine, what can you do safely?
- Global economic outlook improves—due to boost in mature economies
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 13 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 13 % [it is unstudied whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 13 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Pentagon approves 20 additional COVID-19 vaccination teams – The Hill
The Pentagon has approved 20 more military teams, a combined total of 4,700 service members, to help the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administer COVID-19 vaccines across the country.
Following last week’s approval of five such teams, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorized an additional 20 to support FEMA at vaccination mega-sites and smaller locations, top Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Friday.
The 20 will be broken up into 10 teams of 222 personnel supporting mega-vaccination sites and 10 teams of 139 personnel helping at smaller ones.
All the teams, largely made up of active duty forces, will be sent out “as requirements evolve.”
The Pentagon last week announced that it had authorized an initial 1,100 active-duty service members to help FEMA at five state vaccination sites, a response to the agency’s request to the Defense Department in late January to assist with the Biden administration’s 100 million people vaccinated in the first 100 days goal.
Of the first five teams approved, only one has been announced and deployed, a team from Fort Carson, Col., that arrived in Los Angeles to support a vaccination mega-hub. Kirby said the team expects to be up and running by Monday.
COVID Vaccine for Migraine Patients? – MedPage
No evidence suggests migraine prevention treatment, including monoclonal antibodies targeting the calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) pathway or onabotulinumtoxinA (Botox) injections, should be delayed if migraine patients are scheduled to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, experts said.
The established risks of COVID-19 infection and the efficacy of migraine preventive therapies “underscore the importance of not delaying either of these interventions,” wrote Amy Gelfand, MD, of the University of California San Francisco, and Gregory Poland, MD, director of the Mayo Clinic Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minnesota, in an editorial published in Headache.
“We have no data that suggests interference with the COVID-19 response by any of the drugs used in treatment for migraine and other headache disorders,” said Poland, the editor-in-chief of Vaccine, in an interview with MedPage Today.
“It’s not necessary to re-time your migraine preventive treatments with regards to timing of your COVID-19 vaccine doses,” added Gelfand, the editor of Headache. “If you experience headache or fever after the vaccine and want to take something to treat those symptoms, taking NSAIDs or acetaminophen will not harm your ability to make an immune response to the vaccine,” she told MedPage Today.
In January, Gelfand asked the Twitter headache community: “Headache providers: What questions are your patients asking you about the COVID vaccine? What information do you wish you had to be able to counsel them better?”
The Headache editorial was a response to queries that emerged from that tweet. Clinical questions fell into two broad categories: whether migraine treatment affected the efficacy or safety of COVID-19 vaccines, and whether the vaccine impaired the effectiveness of migraine treatment.
Alien Cells May Explain COVID ‘Brain Fog’ – Medscape
The long-term neurologic symptoms such as “brain fog” experienced by some patients with COVID-19 may be caused by a unique pathology — the occlusion of brain capillaries by large megakaryocyte cells, a new report suggests.
The authors report five separate post-mortem cases from patients who died with COVID-19 in which large cells resembling megakaryocytes were identified in cortical capillaries. Immunohistochemistry subsequently confirmed their megakaryocyte identity.
They point out that the finding is of interest as — to their knowledge — megakaryocytes have not been found in the brain before.
The observations are described in a research letter published online February 12 in JAMA Neurology.
Bone Marrow Cells in the Brain
Lead author David Nauen, MD, PhD, a neuropathologist from Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, told Medscape Medical News he identified these cells in the first analysis of post-mortem brain tissue from a patient who had COVID-19.
“Some other viruses cause changes in the brain such as encephalopathy, and as neurologic symptoms are often reported in COVID-19, I was curious to see if similar effects were seen in brain post-mortem samples from patients who had died with the infection,” Nauen said.
On his first analysis of the brain tissue of a patient who had COVID-19, Nauen saw no evidence of viral encephalitis, but he observed some “unusually large” cells in the brain capillaries.
“I was taken aback; I couldn’t figure out what they were. Then I realized these cells were megakaryocytes from the bone marrow. I have never seen these cells in the brain before. I asked several colleagues and none of them had either. After extensive literature searches, I could find no evidence of megakaryocytes being in the brain,” Nauen noted.
Megakaryocytes, he explained, are “very large cells, and the brain capillaries are very small — just large enough to let red blood cells and lymphocytes pass through. To see these very large cells in such vessels is extremely unusual. It looks like they are causing occlusions.”
China refused to hand over important data to W.H.O. inspectors. – New York Times
Chinese scientists refused to share raw data that might bring the world closer to understanding the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, independent investigators for the W.H.O. said on Friday.
The investigators, who recently returned from a fact-finding trip to the Chinese city of Wuhan, said disagreements over patient records and other issues were so tense that they sometimes erupted into shouts among the typically mild-mannered scientists on both sides.
China’s continued resistance to revealing information about the early days of the coronavirus outbreak, the scientists say, makes it difficult for them to uncover important clues that could help stop future outbreaks of such dangerous diseases.
“If you are data focused, and if you are a professional,” said Thea Kølsen Fischer, a Danish epidemiologist on the team, then obtaining data is “like for a clinical doctor looking at the patient and seeing them by your own eyes.”
For 27 days in January and February, the team of 14 experts for the World Health Organization led the mission to trace the origins of the pandemic. Several say their Chinese counterparts were frustrated by the team’s persistent questioning and demands for data.
Chinese officials urged the W.H.O. team to embrace the government’s narrative about the source of the virus, including the unproven notion that it might have spread to China from abroad, according to several members of the team. The W.H.O. scientists responded that they would refrain from making judgments without data.
Britain’s Coronavirus Variant a Concern, ‘Likely to Sweep the World’, Says Scientist – Reuters
The coronavirus variant first found in the British region of Kent is a concern because it could undermine the protection given by vaccines against developing COVID-19, the head of the UK’s genetic surveillance programme said.
She also said the variant was dominant in the country and was likely “to sweep the world, in all probability”.
The coronavirus has killed 2.35 million people and turned normal life upside down for billions, but a few new worrying variants out of thousands have raised fears that vaccines will need to be tweaked and people may require booster shots.
Sharon Peacock, director of the COVID-19 Genomics UK consortium, said vaccines were so far effective against the variants in the United Kingdom, but that mutations could potentially undermine the shots.
“What’s concerning about this is that the 1.1.7. variant that we have had circulating for some weeks and months is beginning to mutate again and get new mutations which could affect the way that we handle the virus in terms of immunity and effectiveness of vaccines,” Peacock told the BBC.
“It’s concerning that the 1.1.7., which is more transmissible, which has swept the country, is now mutating to have this new mutation that could threaten vaccination.”
That new mutation, first identified in Bristol in southwest England, has been designated a “Variant of Concern”, by the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group.
There are so far 21 cases of that variant which has E484K mutation, which occurs on the spike protein of the virus, the same change as has been seen in South African and Brazilian variants.
“One has to be a realist that this particular mutation has arisen in our kind of communal garden lineage now, at least five times – five separate times. And so this is going to keep popping up,” Peacock said.
There are three major known variants that are worrying scientists: The South African variant, known by scientists as 20I/501Y.V2 or B.1.351; the so-called UK or Kent variant, known as 20I/501Y.V1 or B.1.1.7; and and a Brazilian variant known as B.1.1.28(K417N/E484K/N501Y)or P.1.
The British variant, which is more infectious but not necessarily more deadly than others, was likely “to sweep the world”, Peacock said.
Scientists Hoping to Prevent Next Pandemic With Pan-Coronavirus Vaccine – Newsweek
Researchers hope to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine to help prevent a new pandemic that could be even more deadly than the current global health crisis.
The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is bringing hope for an end to the pandemic but scientists remain concerned about the possibility of a fresh coronavirus pandemic. In addition to SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19, the coronavirus family includes many other viruses that can infect humans. Although most common coronaviruses result in relatively mild cold-like illnesses, a new virus that is both very fatal and highly contagious could emerge at any time.
Scientists are taking different approaches to develop a vaccine that could be effective against coronaviruses that have yet to emerge. Since coronaviruses are zoonotic, one approach involves cataloging all of the viruses in animals before they jump to human populations, developing a host of vaccines to be effective against all of the different strains. Another approach aims to develop a single vaccine that could be effective against any coronavirus.
Viruses like SARS-CoV2 are called coronaviruses due to distinct the crown-like “spike” proteins that each share in some form. Current COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, along with several other companies from around the world, all produce antibodies that target the spike protein. A possible universal coronavirus vaccine could be achieved by targeting not only the spike protein but other proteins that coronaviruses share, some of which look largely the same on each virus.
“That really leads to a much more durable response, not just against variants of SARS, but any other potential future SARS types of viruses,” Roderick Slavcev, a University of Waterloo professor and the founder and chief scientific officer of Mediphage, told CBC.
- Some Covid-19 patients are experiencing shortness of breath, severe fatigue, headaches and “brain fog” months to nearly a year after their initial diagnosis, medical experts say.
- The World Health Organization said on Friday that the agency hosted a meeting this week to create an “agreed clinical description” to diagnosis post-Covid condition, also known as “long Covid.”
- Medical experts say it’s still unknown whether the long-term symptoms are specific to Covid-19, or if they’re part of a “general post-viral syndrome.”
Study: $1,400 stimulus checks would help 22.6 million pay bills through mid-July – The Hill
President Biden’s proposed $1,400 coronavirus relief checks would allow 22.6 million Americans to pay their bills for at least four and a half months, according to a study from data and research company Morning Consult.
The analysis comes as debates continue over the size and number of stimulus checks to be included in the next round of COVID-19 aid.
To evaluate the stimulus’s impact, Morning Consult analyzed data on household finances, determining that a new stimulus targeted at low-income adults would help to prevent worsened financial hardship, more than just digging people out of trouble.
According to the study, roughly 30.2 million Americans were unable to pay their bills in January. Out of those, 75 percent missed their bills by less than $300 — a 7 percent improvement from the month prior.
Morning Consult said this shows that while previous stimulus checks didn’t solve the recipients’ financial problems, it made their overall debt less.
After you get a COVID-19 vaccine, what can you do safely? – National Geographic
The two mRNA vaccines that are currently approved for use in the U.S., Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, involve two doses spaced three or four weeks apart. It takes one to two weeks after the second shot to achieve the maximum level of protection from COVID-19. In clinical trials, these vaccines are each about 95 percent effective in preventing cases of COVID-19.
At this point, it is unknown how long immunity will last after a person is fully vaccinated, and only time will reveal the answer. The COVID-19 vaccine could become a yearly shot, similar to the flu shot; its benefits could last for a shorter time, or longer.
Can vaccinated people have no symptoms and still spread the virus to the unvaccinated?
This question is critical, but has not been rigorously studied yet. The data available so far indicate that vaccination significantly curbs infection in people who show no symptoms. In Moderna’s phase 3 clinical trial, a diagnostic test before the second dose of the vaccine showed 89.6 percent of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases were prevented by the first dose.
Preliminary results from phase 3 trials of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed a 67 percent reduction in positive swab tests after one vaccination.
That result is “really encouraging,” says John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus at University of California Berkeley’s School of Public Health. “That’s going to make me feel, as a responsible person, that I can more safely be around other people.”
How safe is it for vaccinated people to get together?
The decision for vaccinated people to gather involves mental “calculus,” says Swartzberg, which should take into account how likely anyone is to be exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, vaccinated or not, because there is still a small chance even a vaccinated person could become infected.
… Experts agree that everyone should wear masks, at least for the time being. Beyond not knowing who is vaccinated and who isn’t, which could potentially lead to awkward and confusing situations, each person can have a different immune reaction to a vaccine.
… For many, it has been months or years since they have been able to meet family and friends face to face, but getting the vaccine doesn’t automatically mean it is entirely safe to travel the world.
“I think it comes down to what people feel comfortable with, but they need to be aware that we can’t at this time predict when new variants will arise, where they will arise, and whether you’ll be protected,” Leifer says. “It’s not like when you get the vaccine, you all of a sudden have a Captain America shield around you.”
Global economic outlook improves—due to boost in mature economies – The Conference Board
Our previous forecast for the global economy from 2020 to 2023 improved from 1.5 average annual GDP growth to 1.7 percent. The higher global growth rate is almost entirely driven by mature economies. Upward revisions to the 2020 growth rates in the US and Japan reflect the impact of additional fiscal support. Some of the improvement also represents “catch-up” growth in 2021 and 2022 that is above long-term potential.
From 2023 onward, growth may return to more normal (and lower) rates, at 1.8 for the US and 0.9 for Japan. Upgrades to the outlook of other mature economies—including Israel, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia—are related to relatively successful mitigation of the pandemic (or in the case of Israel, a successful vaccination campaign) and/or solid external demand for products related to technology and health care.
Our average for the Euro Area from 2020 to 2023 remains essentially unchanged. Continued lockdowns, less robust fiscal stimulus packages compared to the US, and slower vaccination campaigns are contributing to a relatively subdued rebound in 2021 at 3.8 percent, following a contraction of 6.9 percent in 2020. However, we expect above potential growth in the Euro Area in 2022 (to 3.4 percent) and 2023 (to 1.9 percent), after which it eventually returns to our estimated long-term trend of 1.0 percent.
White House says it’s not looking to require COVID-19 tests before domestic flights – The Hill
The White House says it’s not currently looking to require passengers to get COVID-19 tests before domestic flights.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki addressed the issue during a news conference on Friday when she was asked if the subject came up during a meeting between airline executives and White House coronavirus response coordinator Jen Zients.
“Well that would be done through … a policy process internally,” Psaki said. “But, as I conveyed yesterday, reports that there is an intention to put in place new requirements, such as testing, are not accurate.”
The comment comes after Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in an interview with “Axios on HBO” that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was in “an active conversation” on whether to implement testing before domestic flights.
The agency has already required those traveling on international flights to the U.S. to test negative.
Almost all US kids live in Covid-19 “red” zones under new CDC school guidance – CNN
About 99% of children in the US live in a county considered a “red” zone with high levels of Covid-19 transmission under new guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), according to a CNN analysis of federal data.
Nearly 73 million children – about 99% of the US population under the age of 18 – live in a “high transmission” community, defined by the CDC as a county where there were at least 100 new Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people or a test positivity rate of at least 10% during the past seven days.
In these zones, the new CDC guidelines recommend virtual learning for middle and high schools and hybrid learning or reduced attendance for elementary schools.
The CDC also stresses five key mitigation strategies: requiring masks, physical distancing, hand-washing, maintaining clean facilities and contract tracing.
It also recommends different strategies based on how much transmission there is in the surrounding community, and has a color-coded guide with areas of high transmission colored red; substantial transmission colored orange; moderate transmission coded yellow and low transmission as blue.
The CDC says school districts should reassess weekly.
If schools in “high transmission” communities cannot “strictly implement all mitigation strategies,” the CDC says all extracurricular activities should be virtual.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Oxford University to Launch COVID-19 Vaccine trial for Children
The W.H.O. ties a sharp rise in Covid deaths across Africa to overwhelmed health systems.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Not All Heart Disease Is Equal for COVID Vaccine Prioritization
CDC Says Schools Can Safely Reopen, but Will They?
Biden Scores Win With Teachers Unions After CDC Calls for Vaccine Priority
California extends vaccine eligibility to people with disabilities after backlash.
Three men are accused in a scheme to sell vaccines on a fake website.
Ohio begins adding 4,000 overlooked Covid deaths to its official count.
For the first time in 100 days, the US is averaging fewer than 100,000 new Covid-19 cases per day
At least 109 employees at a Colorado ski resort test positive for Covid-19
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
How COVID-19 May Be Affecting Inflation
I Gave Up My Spot In The Vaccine Line – Maybe You Should Too.
CDC Says Masks Must Fit Tightly And Two Are Better Than One
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A studymers Expect Higher Spending and Home Prices Improvement
January 2021 Small Business Optimism Drops Further Below Historical Index Average in January
Infographic Of The usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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