Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 13.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 12.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 13.6 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 105,353 [last few days revised upward]
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 74,225
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are 3,877
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 13.4 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations little changed, and deaths improved
- Hopefully, these current improving COVID trends will remain in play even with the new strains
- Doctors warn that Covid will become endemic and people need to learn to live with it
- The NIH has revised its treatment guidelines for COVID
- The healthcare worker scuttlebutt is that the second dose of any COVID-19 vaccine packs a punch — unless you’ve already
- Vitamin C and zinc don’t help Covid-19 patients, study finds had COVID, then the first dose can hit just as hard.
- The F.D.A. is struggling to start up its comprehensive monitoring system for vaccinations
- Florida Officials Say They’d Fight Any Potential Domestic Travel Restrictions
- Mask mandate on airplanes: Right idea with wrong implementation
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 13 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 13 % [it is unstudied whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 13 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
The F.D.A. is struggling to start up its comprehensive monitoring system for vaccinations. – New York Times
More than 34 million Americans have received Covid vaccines, but the much-touted system that the government designed to monitor any dangerous reactions won’t be capable of analyzing safety data for weeks or months, according to numerous federal health officials.
For now, federal regulators are counting on a patchwork of existing programs that they acknowledge are inadequate because of small sample sizes, missing critical data or other problems.
Clinical trials have shown both of the vaccines authorized in the United States — Pfizer-BioNTech’s and Moderna’s — to be highly protective against the coronavirus and safe. But even the best trials have limited ability to detect adverse reactions that are rare, that occur only in certain population groups or that happen beyond the trials’ three-month period.
In interviews, F.D.A. officials acknowledged that a promised monitoring system, formally called the Biologics Evaluation Safety Initiative but more widely known as BEST, is still in development. They expect it to start analyzing vaccine safety data soon, but probably not for another month or two.
The government is now relying mostly on a 30-year-old monitoring system that relies on self-reporting from patients and health care providers, known as the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, and a smartphone app that people who get vaccinated can download and use to report problems.
So far, few serious problems have been reported through these channels and no deaths have conclusively been linked to the vaccines. There have been a few severe allergic reactions, but they are treatable and considered rare. To date, the rate at which the potentially fatal reaction called anaphylaxis has occurred — 4.7 cases in every million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, and 2.5 cases per million for Moderna’s — are in line with the rates of other widely used vaccines.
Bruising and bleeding caused by lowered platelet counts have also been reported, though that could be coincidental. In total, 9,000 adverse events were reported, with 979 serious and the rest classified as nonserious, according to the most recent C.D.C. report available.
Second COVID Shot Packs the Big Punch – MedPage
The healthcare worker scuttlebutt is that the second dose of any COVID-19 vaccine packs a punch — unless you’ve already had COVID, then the first dose can hit just as hard.
These perceptions are substantiated by immunology and by data from the vaccines’ phase III trials, and some hospitals have even altered their healthcare worker scheduling in anticipation of second-dose side effects.
Priming the Immune System
Immunologists and infectious disease experts interviewed by MedPage Today said it’s not unexpected that second-dose reactions are more intense than the first.
“The first time the immune system comes into contact with something, it’s getting primed,” said Purvi Parikh, MD, an immunologist at NYU Langone Health in New York City. “That goes for everything, from vaccines to allergies. It’s rare on the first time to have a strong reaction. After that, the immune system recognizes it, so you have a much stronger reaction.”
“We saw it in the trials, so it’s really not surprising,” Parikh added. “Now we’re seeing it in real time as the vaccines are being rolled out.”
In both Pfizer’s and Moderna’s phase III trial data, systemic adverse events were reported more frequently after dose 2 than dose 1. For the latter, rates were 54.9% versus 42.2% for placebo after the first dose and 79.4% versus 36.5% for placebo after the second dose. Fever, headache, fatigue, myalgia, arthralgia, and chills were far more common after the second dose compared with the first dose and with all placebo doses.
Stanley Weiss, MD, an infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School, said since his institution served as a site for the Moderna trial, the primary investigator was able to give faculty and administrators an early update on what to expect following vaccination.
“They said there was a very high rate of fatigue after the second dose, so we encouraged administrators … to figure that many healthcare workers getting the vaccine might not be well enough to work the day after the second dose,” Weiss told MedPage Today.
The latest update to the NIH treatment guidelines now includes trial data on ivermectin. – CDC
Key Updates to the Guidelines
Introduction
Each recommendation in the Guidelines is assigned a rating for the strength of the recommendation statement and the quality of the evidence that supports the recommendation. The rating scheme for the quality of evidence has been revised to better define the type of scientific evidence used to support the Panel’s recommendations. The new ratings are as follows:
Strength of Recommendation Quality of Evidence for Recommendation A: Strong recommendation for the statement
B: Moderate recommendation for the statement
C: Optional recommendation for the statement
I: One or more randomized trials without major limitations
IIa: Other randomized trials or subgroup analyses of randomized trials
IIb: Nonrandomized trials or observational cohort studies
III: Expert opinion
Prevention and Prophylaxis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection
A brief discussion of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA vaccines that are currently available through Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been added to this section. This section also includes updated clinical trial data on the use of hydroxychloroquine for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP).
Therapeutic Management of Patients With COVID-19
This section has been updated to add rationale to support the recommendations presented in Figure 1. Pharmacologic Management of Patients with COVID-19 Based on Disease Severity. Minor clarifying updates have also been made to the text in Figure 1.
This section now incorporates the new information and recommendations from the Panel’s statement on ivermectin that was released on January 14, 2021. A new table summarizes the results from several randomized clinical trials and retrospective cohort studies of ivermectin use in patients with COVID-19 that have been published in peer-reviewed journals or have been made available as manuscripts ahead of peer review.
Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Monoclonal Antibodies
Bamlanivimab and the combination of casirivimab and imdevimab are available through FDA EUAs for the treatment of outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk for progressing to severe disease and/or hospitalization. This new section of the Guidelines expands on the bamlanivimab statement that was released on November 18, 2020, and the casirivimab plus imdevimab statement that was released on December 2, 2020. This section also includes considerations for using these anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies in pregnant people and children. A separate table has been created to summarize the clinical trial data that led to the issuance of the EUAs.
On February 9, 2021, the FDA issued an EUA for bamlanivimab plus etesevimab for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in outpatients who have received positive results on a nucleic acid amplification test or an antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 and who are at high risk for clinical progression. The Panel will issue recommendations on the use of bamlanivimab plus etesevimab shortly.
The information and recommendations from the Panel’s December 14, 2020, statement on the use of baricitinib have been added to this section. The section also includes a more detailed description of the clinical data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 2 (ACTT-2) study that led to the FDA issuing an EUA for the use of baricitinib and remdesivir for the treatment of certain hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
Other Updates to the Guidelines
The following sections received minor updates during this revision:
Emergence of a Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant in Southern California – JAMA
A novel variant of SARS-CoV-2, CAL.20C, was identified, which emerged in Southern California contemporaneously with the local surge in cases. Unlike clade 20G, currently the largest reported clade in North America, this strain is defined by 3 mutations in the S-protein characterizing it as a subclade of 20C. The S protein L452R mutation is within a known receptor binding domain that has been found to be resistant to certain spike (S) protein monoclonal antibodies. Because this study was limited to databases of publicly available genomes and a comparatively small set of local samples, the possibility of collection bias cannot be ruled out. Additionally, as clinical outcomes have yet to be established, the functional effect of this strain regarding infectivity and disease severity remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the identification of this novel strain is important to frontline and global surveillance of this evolving virus.
Florida Officials Say They’d Fight Any Potential Domestic Travel Restrictions – NPR
Elected officials in Florida are reacting strongly against media reports that the White House is considering imposing domestic travel restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19.
“It would be unconstitutional. It would be unwise and it would be unjust,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said Thursday at a vaccination site in Port Charlotte, on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
The Republican governor’s remarks came after media reports saying federal officials are weighing travel restrictions, including Florida, aimed at slowing the spread of the highly contagious variant first identified in the U.K.
Asked about the reports on Thursday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters that no decisions have been made about additional public health measures that would affect domestic travel.
Florida leads the nation in the number of known cases of the B.1.1.7 strain of the coronavirus, the variant that emerged in the U.K. Researchers says the variant now accounts for up to 15% of the new cases statewide. Because it is more contagious, public health experts worry the emergence of the variant could accelerate spread of the disease.
DeSantis pointed out that coronavirus-related emergency room visits in Florida have dropped by more than half since December. He said he “100%” opposed any move to restrict domestic travel.
“Restricting the right of Americans to travel freely throughout our country while allowing illegal aliens to pour across the southern border unmolested would be a ridiculous, but very damaging farce,” DeSantis said. “It would not be based in science. It would purely be a political attack against the people of Florida.”
Mask mandate on airplanes: Right idea with wrong implementation – The Hill
… Airlines have been requiring passengers to wear face covering for several months. Those who have defy such requirements are placed on no-fly lists, now totaling over 2,700 people. The new order mandates face coverings in all areas of the air system, including airport security checkpoints, throughout airport concourses and on commercial flights, which is already widely occurring.
Like any mandated requirement, enforcement and practical implementation are the weak links. The order indicates that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will be responsible for enforcement. This adds yet another burden of responsibility for TSA officers, creating opportunities for distraction from executing their primary role, which is to maintain the security of the air system from malicious activity. To date, over 6,500 TSA officers have tested positive for COVID-19, with 15 deaths, despite all the health precautions taken, including face coverings and face shields.
Practical implementation is another problem with the order because of the plethora of exceptions. The biggest challenge with face coverings is not being able to wear them while eating or drinking. Food concessions at airports, particularly those with seating, will quickly become a refuge for people to avoid wearing their face coverings. Even if such establishments stop seated food service, people will likely congregate across the rest of the airport concourses while eating and drinking, creating pockets with elevated virus transmission risk opportunities.
… The biggest challenge with the face covering order is the sizable fraction of the population that continues to believe that COVID-19 is not a public health threat and, by extension, face coverings are unnecessary. This seed of discontent continues to provide headwinds that our nation has struggled with since the pandemic began.
The face covering order makes sense. The question is whether it provides any more public health value than what the airlines have already achieved with their own requirements? The answer is no, with this becoming apparent in the weeks ahead.
Doctors warn that Covid will become endemic and people need to learn to live with it – CNBC
More and more physicians and public health officials are warning that even with the mass rollout of safe and effective vaccines, Covid may permanently establish itself.
White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel and World Health Organization executive director of the Health Emergencies Program Dr. Mike Ryan have said in recent weeks that the coronavirus may never go away.
To date, more than 107 million people worldwide have contracted Covid-19, with 2.36 million deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, warned in October that the virus appeared to be on course to become endemic. He reaffirmed his position this week during a webinar for think tank Chatham House.
“I think if you speak with most epidemiologists and most public health workers, they would say today that they believe this disease will become endemic, at least in the short term and most likely in the long term,” he said.
Heymann cautioned that it was not yet possible to be sure of the virus’s destiny since its outcome depends on many unknown factors.
“Right now, the emphasis is on saving lives, which it should be, and on making sure that hospitals are not overburdened with Covid patients — and this will be possible moving forward,” Heymann said, citing the mass rollout of vaccines.
Vitamin C and zinc don’t help Covid-19 patients, study finds – CNN
Vitamin C and zinc don’t do anything to help coronavirus patients, a Cleveland Clinic team reported Friday.
Their research is the first major randomized study looking at the popular supplements, given under medical supervision, and it found even high doses did nothing to help patients recover from Covid-19.
The team at the Cleveland Clinic health system randomly assigned 214 patients to get varying doses of ascorbic acid, commonly known as vitamin C, and zinc, between April and October of last year.
“In this randomized clinical trial of ambulatory patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection, treatment with high-dose zinc gluconate, ascorbic acid, or a combination of the two supplements did not significantly decrease the duration of symptoms compared with standard of care,” the team wrote in the journal JAMA Network Open.
“Most consumers of ascorbic acid and zinc are taking significantly lower doses of these supplements, so demonstrating that even high-dose ascorbic acid and zinc had no benefit suggests clear lack of efficacy,” Dr. Milind Desai of the Cleveland Clinic and colleagues wrote.
“In addition, administering supplements with unproven benefit can be detrimental due to adverse effects. Zinc has been shown to cause a metallic taste, dry mouth, and gastrointestinal intolerance in high doses. Ascorbic acid can cause gastrointestinal intolerance, and in the current study, a significantly higher proportion of patients in the ascorbic acid subgroups reported adverse effects, including nausea, diarrhea, and stomach cramps.”
The C.D.C. urges reopening schools and sets out new guidelines for doing so. – New York Times
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday urged that K-12 schools be reopened and offered a comprehensive science-based plan for doing so speedily, an effort to resolve an urgent debate roiling in communities across the nation.
The new guidelines highlight the growing body of evidence that schools can openly safely if they put in effect layered mitigation measures. The agency said that even when students lived in communities with high transmission rates, elementary students could receive at least some in-person instruction safely.
And middle and high school students, the agency said, could attend school safely at most lower levels of community transmission — or even at higher levels, if schools put into effect weekly testing of staff and students to identify asymptomatic infections.
“CDC’s operational strategy is grounded in science and the best available evidence,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the C.D.C., said on Friday in a call with reporters.
[editor’s note: the CDC guidelines are https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community/schools-childcare/K-12-Operational-Strategy-2021-2-12.pdf]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Australia’s second-largest city of Melbourne will begin its third lockdown due to a rapidly spreading coronavirus cluster centered on hotel quarantine. The five-day lockdown will be enforced across Victoria state to prevent the virus spreading from the state capital.
Britain’s Undertakers Under Pressure: Funeral home staff are under intense pressure in many countries, but the burden is especially intense in Britain, where more than 115,000 people with the virus have died.
UK Covid-19 full-range R rate falls below 1 for the first time since July
Brazil Vaccination-Amazon: Traveling to remote communities in the Amazon is only the first challenge for health workers vaccinating Indigenous and riverine people. They can also face deep skepticism about receiving the shot.
Missionaries stand accused of turning Brazilians indigenous tribes against the vaccine with tales that “they will turn into an alligator.”
The Australian Open will be allowed to continue but without crowds for at least five days after the Victoria state government imposed a lockdown starting Saturday in response to a COVID-19 outbreak at a quarantine hotel.
Tocilizumab (Actemra) showed a slight but statistically significant mortality benefit in critically ill COVID-19 patients, according to a press release from the U.K.’s pragmatic RECOVERY trial.
Sewage Samples Show COVID-19 Spreading Fast in Some French Cities
Pandemic Origin Still a Mystery As Scientists Question “Frozen Food” Theory – The WHO team’s press briefing, with its dismissal of the lab-leak hypothesis, failed to persuade U.S. officials and did nothing to bridge the divide between China and the West.
Hungary becomes the first E.U. country to administer Russia’s coronavirus vaccine.
Initial reports from South Africa show people who have recovered from Covid-19 have been reinfected with a new, more contagious strain of the virus, World Health Organizations officials said.
Japanese health officials approved the country’s first Covid-19 vaccine, made by Pfizer, NHK national television reported, according to Reuters.
France’s health authority recommends single vaccine dose to those previously infected
Italy extends travel ban between regions, as four regions tighten Covid-19 restrictions
Germany, fearing new coronavirus variants, imposes border checks with Austria and Czech Republic
More European countries send medical teams to help Portugal
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
People close to President Trump are spilling the tea on his bout with COVID-19; he was allegedly in much worse shape than previously disclosed.
More than 9,000 recovering coronavirus patients in New York state were released from hospitals into nursing homes under a controversial directive that was scrapped amid criticism it was accelerating outbreaks. That’s according to new records obtained by the AP
U.S. Vaccination Drive: President Joe Biden says the U.S. will have enough supply of the vaccine by the end of the summer to inoculate 300 million Americans.
Biden administration finalizes deal for 200 million vaccine doses from Pfizer, Moderna
In available data from 27 states, more than a third of people 65 and older already received their first jab.
AP obtained documents showing just how many recovering COVID patients in New York were sent to nursing homes last spring. It’s a much bigger number than officials reported earlier. And an aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) admitted to covering up the state’s actual nursing-home death toll out of fear of a federal investigation.
The top aide to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo acknowledged pausing the release of data on COVID-19 in nursing homes because the governor’s administration feared it could be “used against us” by the Department of Justice under Trump.
Some NY Dems Break With Cuomo, 14 State Senators Call to Strip COVID Powers
Cuomo Aide’s Call a ‘Taped Confession’—Republican Pursuing Charges
4,000 COVID-19 deaths went unreported in Ohio, where the health department promises an investigation and internal overhaul.
Federal Budget Deficit Expected To Hit Second Largest Since World War II
Montana governor lifts state mask mandate
San Francisco files emergency order to reopen public schools
Coronavirus hospitalizations hit lowest level in nearly three months
House panel advances portion of relief package that includes $1,400 checks
The F.D.A. agrees Moderna can increase the amount of vaccine in each vial.
The U.S. vaccine rollout is improving in every state, but still hindered by supply.
Recent data from the Q1 2021 CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey reveals that for business owners, the pandemic is far from over. The survey revealed that just over half (55%) of entrepreneurs are confident that their businesses can last another year. But fears of permanent closures varied depending on the race of the business owner, with 59% of White business owners confident that their business can last for another year, compared to 55% of Hispanic business owners, and just 37% of Black business owners expressing confidence.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will investigate the death of a Nebraska man who died on Jan. 17 between one and two weeks after receiving his first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services.
Amazon sues New York attorney general to block regulation on its pandemic response
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
05 February 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Continues To Improve
Preliminary February 2021 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Continues To Fall
First Quarter 2021 Survey of Professional Forecasters Predict Rebound with Lower Unemployment
Rail Week Ending 06 February 2021 – Growth Rate Little Changed This Week
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A studymers Expect Higher Spending and Home Prices Improvement
January 2021 Small Business Optimism Drops Further Below Historical Index Average in January
Infographic Of The usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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