Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 24.1 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 12.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.0 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 89,727 [lowest number since 02 November 2021]
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 81,439 [lowest number since 22 November 2021]
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are 1,596 [are the new variants more deadly or are vaccinations increasing deaths – as deaths are no longer correlating with new cases or hospitalizations?>
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 12.7 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations little changed, and deaths improved
- Hopefully, these current improving COVID trends will remain in play even with the new strains
- New variants raise worry about COVID-19 virus reinfections
- The fast-spreading coronavirus variant is turning up in US sewers
- Here’s a guide to the coronavirus variants that are raising concern
- Global health officials back AstraZeneca vaccine after South Africa study rings alarm
- Cancer drug could reduce COVID-19 deaths, study finds
- White House to ship COVID vaccines directly to community health centers
- Covid-19 antigen tests not counted among cases in some states
- Widespread COVID Vaccinations in U.S. May Not Mean an End to Travel Restrictions
- It may take years to figure out how Covid-19 emerged, WHO doctor in Wuhan says
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 12 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 12 % [it is unstudied whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 12 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Covid-19 antigen tests not counted among cases in some states – CNN
Antigen test results still are not included in the total count of Covid-19 cases for some states — not even as probable cases, as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends.
Five states — California, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri and Nevada — publicly report only cases confirmed with PCR tests in their online tallies, according to a CNN analysis of health department dashboards across all 50 states.
Some states only report polymerase chain reaction test results in their Covid-19 case numbers and exclude antigen test results since antigen tests are generally seen as less accurate. But as antigen testing ramps up in the United States, this exclusion could lead to potential miscounts.
“Antigen tests are relatively inexpensive, and most can be used at the point of care. Most of the currently authorized tests return results in approximately 15 minutes,” according to the US Food and Drug Administration, but also notes it’s generally less sensitive than other types of tests.
In California, for instance, CNN was told that antigen Covid-19 test results are required to be reported to local health departments and to the California Department of Public Health. But publicly reported Covid-19 testing data only reflects results from diagnostic tests that detect the coronavirus’ genetic material, such as PCR — polymerase chain reaction — tests.
CNN requesr remaining states, the data they each shared with CNN represent about 10,000 positive Covid-19 antigen test results reported over just a small sampling of days in January.
ted antigen testing data from the state’s department of public health, but was told in an email that “antigen test results are not being publicly reported statewide at this time.”
Across the fouIf included in reported case counts, those positive antigen test results would increase Covid-19 cases reported by those states between 5% and 50% in that time, according to CNN’s analysis.
New variants raise worry about COVID-19 virus reinfections – AP
Evidence is mounting that having COVID-19 may not protect against getting infected again with some of the new variants. People also can get second infections with earlier versions of the coronavirus if they mounted a weak defense the first time, new research suggests.
How long immunity lasts from natural infection is one of the big questions in the pandemic. Scientists still think reinfections are fairly rare and usually less serious than initial ones, but recent developments around the world have raised concerns.
In South Africa, a vaccine study found new infections with a variant in 2% of people who previously had an earlier version of the virus.
In Brazil, several similar cases were documented with a new variant there. Researchers are exploring whether reinfections help explain a recent surge in the city of Manaus, where three-fourths of residents were thought to have been previously infected.
In the United States, a study found that 10% of Marine recruits who had evidence of prior infection and repeatedly tested negative before starting basic training were later infected again. That work was done before the new variants began to spread, said one study leader, Dr. Stuart Sealfon of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.
The fast-spreading coronavirus variant is turning up in US sewers – MIT Tech Review
A hyper-transmissible form of the coronavirus that causes covid-19 has been found in US sewer systems in California and Florida, confirming its widening presence in the US.
Buckets of dirty water drawn from sewer pipes near Los Angeles and outside Orlando starting in late January are among those in which genetic mutations shared by a so-called UK variant have been detected.
The UK strain B.1.1.7, a mutated form of the coronavirus first discovered in southeast England in December, doesn’t seem to resist vaccines, but it does appear to spread more easily and has already taken over in countries including Israel, where it’s now responsible for 80% of cases. Some researchers have warned that if the variant takes hold in the US, it could become the dominant form by March.
The new sewage data is consistent with other estimates that the variant is increasing its reach. On January 7, the company Helix and researchers in California used patient test results to estimate that the variant is now responsible for 1% to 2% of cases in the US as a whole and 4% in Florida, about four times the proportion found in early January.
In the sewers of Altamonte Springs, near Orlando, tests on waste water suggest that 4% of those infected have the new variant. “I was thinking it would be in Miami or larger areas. But that was wishful thinking,” says Ed Torres, director of public works and utilities in Altamonte Springs, who oversees the sewage testing program.
A strain of covid-19 that appears to spread faster is colliding with the campaign to vaccinate Americans.
Local spread
Sewer tests are now providing a direct glimpse of just how many people are infected with the variant in some cities. Torres says a model he works with indicates that more than 200 people are infected with the variant just in his wastewater collection region, an exurb of 77,500 people.
Health officials in central Florida initially blamed their B.1.1.7 cases on visitors who tested positive, but the sewer tests in Altamonte indicate that the variant is spreading locally, too. Florida remains largely open for business, including theme parks, which are operating with the use of masks and physical distancing.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, only 611 cases of B.1.1.7 have been directly confirmed nationally via genetic sequencing of the viral samples collected in patient nose swabs, with many of the positives coming from California and Florida. Because only a small percentage of hospital swabs are ever analyzed for what form of the virus is present, the true number of B.1.1.7 cases is certainly much larger.
Global health officials back AstraZeneca vaccine after South Africa study rings alarm – Reuters
Health officials around the world gave their backing to the AstraZeneca vaccine against COVID-19, after a study showing it had little effect against mild disease caused by the variant now spreading quickly in South Africa rang global alarm.
The prospect that new virus variants could evolve the ability to elude vaccines is one of the main risks hanging over the global strategy to emerge from the pandemic by rolling out vaccines this year.
South Africa, where a new variant now accounts for the vast bulk of cases, initially announced a pause in its rollout of a million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
But it said on Monday it could still roll it out in a “stepped manner”, giving out 100,000 doses and monitoring it to see if it prevents hospitalisations and deaths.
“It is vastly too early to be dismissing this vaccine,” said Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, a foundation that co-leads the global COVAX programme to provide vaccine doses in poor countries.
More than 330 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine form the overwhelming majority of doses that COVAX aims to begin rolling out in a first phase in poor countries beginning as soon as this month.
“Obviously the world is full of the wild type virus that this Astrazeneca vaccine is known to work against,” Hatchett said.
Professor Salim Abdool Karim, co-chair of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19, said it was too early to conclude that the AstraZeneca would not prevent serious disease caused by the variant prevalent there.
If the vaccine does not work well against new evolving variants of the virus, it could be an ominous sign for other vaccines as well, showing that the virus can potentially thwart the efforts of scientists to fight it.
White House to ship COVID vaccines directly to community health centers – The Hill
Community health centers will be receiving coronavirus vaccines directly from the federal government next week, White House officials announced Tuesday.
The goal of the new program is to focus on equitable vaccine distribution, in order to reach traditionally underserved areas.
“Equity is core to our strategy to put this pandemic behind us, and equity means that we are reaching everyone, particularly those in underserved and rural communities, and those who have been hit hardest by this pandemic,” Jeff Zients, White House COVID-19 response coordinator, said during a press briefing.
The program will begin incrementally and will ramp up over time as vaccine supply increases, officials said. The administration will initially send doses to at least one health center in every jurisdiction across the country, with 1 million doses divided across 250 clinics as the program phases in over the next few weeks.
Nationwide, there are nearly 1,400 federally-funded health centers that provide primary and preventive care to nearly 30 million patients each year.
“Equity is our North Star here. This effort that focuses on direct allocation to the community health centers really is about connecting with those hard-to-reach populations across the country,” said Marcella Nunez-Smith, chair of the White House’s COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force.
Cancer drug could reduce COVID-19 deaths, study finds – The Hill
Biotech company Veru announced Tuesday that the results of a COVID-19 treatment trial indicate that one of the firm’s anti-cancer treatments was effective in reducing the risk of death among coronavirus patients.
The company pointed to the results of a double-blind study involving 40 hospital patients, some of whom were given the company’s VERU-111 anti-cancer treatment and others who were given a placebo, which found the drug was responsible for an 82 percent “relative reduction” in the rate of respiratory failure or death.
“We are very pleased with the results of our Phase 2 trial, which demonstrated clinically meaningful reductions in relevant endpoints, including respiratory failure, days in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation and patient mortality. We believe VERU-111 has significant potential in treating COVID-19, both as a broad-spectrum antiviral and an anti-inflammatory agent,” said Veru’s CEO Mitchell Steiner.
“Due to the urgency of the global pandemic and need for more effective treatment options for patients, we are duty-bound to pursue this indication, even though it has not been the primary focus of Veru,” he continued.
Widespread COVID Vaccinations in U.S. May Not Mean an End to Travel Restrictions – Newsweek
Vaccinating large swaths of the American population is the best defense against COVID-19 mutations, but the United States reaching herd immunity might not be enough to allow people to travel around the world free of restrictions.
Bringing a true end to the pandemic will take a global vaccination effort because the virus spreading anywhere gives room for mutations to take place. Vaccines have largely been believed to be effective against variants so far, but the possibility that one could escape the vaccine and take hold in the U.S. raises the possibility of needing to keep travel restrictions in place until the world is vaccinated.
“It’s not an unreasonable thing to request that people either be vaccinated and perhaps also test negative,” Ruth McDermott-Levy, director of Villanova University’s Center for Global and Public Health, told Newsweek. “I can see that until we get this under control.”
… However, we live in a global world and viruses can travel across borders. If a person travels to a place where vaccinations aren’t widespread and a mutation takes hold, it can wind up in America. Usually, a variant won’t have any clinical implications, according to Dr. Ashish Jha, a dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, but variants can be more transmissible or deadly or escape vaccines, and that could “make everyone vulnerable again.”
“In a future where [the] U.S. is vaccinated but others are not, we could see a rise of variants that can infect, cause outbreaks here and other vaccinated places, requiring us to update our vaccines and vaccinate everyone again,” Jha explained on Twitter. ” It’s the nightmare scenario of a never-ending pandemic.”
… While we know vaccines protect against disease, we don’t “fully understand” how protective they are against infection, Jon Andrus, a professor of global health at the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University, told Newsweek. So a person who’s protected against getting seriously ill may still be able to transmit the virus.
There’s debate over whether travel restrictions are an effective means of slowing down a pandemic, but both Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden have utilized the tool. While some of Trump’s restrictions were rescinded before he left office, Biden reinstated many of them and added South Africa, where a concerning variant was spreading, to the list.
Fighting COVID-19 is a “moving target,” Andrus said, and testing requirements for travel could be “helpful,” especially if technology improves to minimize “shortcomings” with regard to false negatives.
Here’s a guide to the coronavirus variants that are raising concern. – New York Times
A number of coronavirus variants are raising worries that they may draw out the pandemic or make vaccines less effective. Here are four that have been in the news lately and what we know about them.
B.1.1.7
First emerged in Britain.
Thought to be about 50 percent more infectious than earlier versions.
Preliminary evidence suggests that it is about 35 percent more deadly.
Current vaccines appear to work well against it.
This variant has been detected in more than 70 countries, including the United States, where it is doubling roughly every 10 days. Experts predict that it could become the country’s dominant source of infection by March. Learn more about B.1.1.7.
B.1.351
First identified in South Africa.
Vaccines may be less effective against it.
South Africa halted its use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine on Sunday after evidence emerged that the vaccine did not protect against mild or moderate illness caused by B.1.351. The variant has spread to at least 24 countries, including the United States, where it has been detected in Maryland, South Carolina and Virginia.
P.1
First emerged in Brazil.
May be able to overcome immunity developed after infection by other variants.
A close relative of B.1.351, this variant has spread to several countries, including the United States, where it has been detected in Minnesota and Oklahoma.
CAL.20C
First discovered in California.
It is not yet clear whether it is more infectious.
This variant was found in more than half of the coronavirus test samples that were screened in Los Angeles.
Coronavirus Variants and Mutations
Tracking recent mutations, variants and lineages.
It may take years to figure out how Covid-19 emerged, WHO doctor in Wuhan says – CNN
Dr. Peter Daszak, a zoologist who is part of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) international team in Wuhan, China, has told CNN that scientists will eventually “get a really clear picture” of how Covid-19 originated, but it may take weeks, months or even a “couple of years.”
Daszak told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Tuesday there is no evidence there were earlier Covid-19 clusters in other parts of China before early December, and that it is possible the virus may have even been brought by a person from another country.
A “patient zero” still hasn’t been identified and may never be, as many of the cases are asymptomatic, he said.
When asked to comment on the possible conflict of interest while working with Chinese medical teams and researchers, he said: “Some people want to believe that [that there is conflict of interest]” but “we did not see any evidence of malpractice or significant safety issues.”
Daszak said the international team, which consisted of about 17 WHO scientists and 20 Chinese scientists, visited “many labs” and asked “really tough questions” to their directors and individual scientists, and the data and transcripts of the interviews will be published in an upcoming WHO report. He also praised “remarkable openness from China.”
[editor’s note: also read
- It’s “extremely unlikely” that the novel coronavirus came from a lab, said a World Health Organization official investigating SARS-CoV-2’s origin
- Chinese health official says Huanan market might not be the first place of the Covid-19 outbreak
- WHO says an “intermediary host species” is most likely how Covid-19 was introduced to humans
- and Pompeo Rejects ‘Corrupt’ WHO Findings That COVID Didn’t Originate in Wuhan]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Brazil’s government, led by President Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right virus denialist who was stricken by the disease himself, has been failing to secure COVID-19 vaccine doses for its 210 million people
Iran Vaccination: The Islamic Republic has launched an inoculation campaign among healthcare professionals with Russian Sputnik V vaccines as the country struggles to stem the worst outbreak in the Middle East.
Portugal’s Surge: Hopes are rising in the Iberian nation that the worst of a devastating surge might be over, as the number of deaths reported was the lowest in three weeks. The country’s COVId-19 picture is mixed, however. Hospital admissions rose for the first time in a week, but the advance of the virus has by some metrics been slowing since the end of January
Russia sharply revised its COVID-19-related death toll for 2020 up to more than 160,000 deaths.
New Figures Suggest Russia Had Third Highest COVID-19 Death Toll in 2020
In Italy, a teachers union is getting picky over COVID-19 vaccine options, saying they’d rather not have AstraZeneca/Oxford’s even for younger staff.
Bodies again pile up in Bolivia as Latin America endures a long, deadly coronavirus wave.
Hungary to become first EU country to roll out Russia’s Sputnik vaccine this week
Peru becomes the first Latin American country to roll out the Chinese vaccine, Sinopharm
Athletes to be tested for Covid-19 at least every four days at Tokyo Olympics
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The Biden administration is still considering a rule that would require negative COVID-19 test results for domestic air travel, according to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and officials with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Vaccinating Florida Seniors: The vaccination campaign for seniors at Miami’s largest hospital starts with the delivery of frozen glass vials that arrive with armed guards. The vials are immediately whisked to a secret location and placed inside a padlocked freezer.
Distance Learning: After seeing two academic years thrown off course by the pandemic, school leaders around the U.S. are planning for the possibility of more distance learning next fall. President Biden has made reopening schools a top priority, but administrators say there’s much to consider with new strains of the virus and teachers waiting their turn for vaccinations.
Chicago’s school system inched closer to in-person classes after union leadership approved a deal that now awaits a vote from the full membership.
No more posts about COVID vaccines secretly delivering microchips? Facebook said it would beef up its policing of vaccine misinformation.
A Pentagon watchdog faulted commanders of the USS Theodore Roosevelt for lax social distancing and isolation protocols that worsened a COVID-19 outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier last year.
Online searches for COVID-specific symptoms could offer an early warning of increased infections.
An investigational long-acting antibody cocktail (AZD7442) will be tested in the randomized ACTIV-3 trial for patients hospitalized with COVID-19, the NIH announced.
NeuroRx said its investigational drug aviptadil shortened hospital stays in a phase II/III trial involving patients with COVID respiratory failure, but didn’t mention mortality.
Uber and Walgreens to offer free rides to COVID-19 vaccine sites
In Pandemic, More People Choose to Die at Home
Democrats Announce $2 Billion Fund to Help Pay for COVID-Related Funerals
Nearly half of adult Americans surveyed late last year said they were absolutely certain or very likely they would get vaccinated against Covid-19, an increase from September when 39.4% of survey respondents said they would get the jab, according to a new study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
About 60% of nursing home staff declined Covid vaccines, Walgreens exec says
US considers mobile vaccination centers to tackle “undersupply” of shots, White House adviser says
Covid-19 transmission is low in daycare centers that take the right precautions
1 in 3 Covid-19 patients put on a ventilator experience “extensive” PTSD symptoms, UK research shows
40 hospitals across Washington state may have received counterfeit N95 masks, officials say
Los Angeles County is only offering second doses of Covid-19 vaccine due to shortage
CVS and Walgreens will begin vaccinating select populations in stores this week, the companies say. Walgreens announced last week its program in 15 states will begin Friday, while CVS said Monday it was pushing back its start date in 11 states from Thursday to Friday.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
December 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Year-over-Year Growth Rate Improved
November 2020 Loan Performance: Delinquencies Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in November
January 2021 ConsuDay: Analysis Suggests Vaccinations Are Helping Decline Of Covid-19 In Nursing Homes
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A studymers Expect Higher Spending and Home Prices Improvement
January 2021 Small Business Optimism Drops Further Below Historical Index Average in January
Infographic Of The usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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