Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 22.0 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 6.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 132,537
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 110,628
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 1,775
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 6.2 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths worsened
- Current charts are showing a “holiday” peak is behind us – hopefully, this improving trend will remain in play even with the new strains
- Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine could have major implications for rollout
- Merck Discontinues Development of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates; Continues Development of Two Investigational Therapeutic Candidates
- Coronasomnia: Pervasive Sleeplessness Raises Concerns
- Why Vaccines Alone Will Not End the Pandemic
- A complete massacre, a horror film’: inside Brazil’s Covid disaster
- China wanted to show off its vaccines. It’s backfiring
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 6% of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 6% [there is an unknown that you could still be a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 6% reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. There continues to be worries that the South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine could have major implications for rollout, researcher says – CNN
Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine could have a major effect on the rollout of vaccines because the company plans to make so many doses, one of the researchers who helped develop it said Monday.
“If this vaccine proves to be safe and effective, it could have major implications for the vaccine rollout because J&J has committed to producing and deploying at least a billion doses of vaccine during this calendar year, including at least 100 million doses for the US population,” Dr. Dan Barouch, a Harvard Medical School researcher who helped develop Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine candidate, said.
“If it’s a single-dose vaccine, then a billion vaccine doses would translate into a billion people vaccinated,” Barouch said during an episode of the podcast Coronavirus Fact vs Fiction.
“I’m optimistic that if we can have not just two vaccines, but potentially three to five vaccines rolled out, then we can get a substantial fraction of the population vaccinated during this calendar year,” Barouch added.
Barouch also serves as the director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston which began collaborating with Johnson & Johnson on this vaccine in March.
Last week, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said that Johnson & Johnson is “right around the corner” from seeking emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine from the US Food and Drug Administration.
Why Vaccines Alone Will Not End the Pandemic – New York Times
The coronavirus pandemic in the United States has raged almost uncontrollably for so long that even if millions of people are vaccinated, millions more will still be infected and become ill unless people continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing measures until midsummer or later, according to a new model by scientists at Columbia University.
The arrival of highly effective vaccines in December lifted hopes that they would eventually slow or stop the spread of the disease through the rest of the population. But vaccines alone are not enough, the model shows. And if precautions like working remotely, limiting travel and wearing masks are relaxed too soon, it could mean millions more infections and thousands more deaths.
There is no doubt that getting vaccinated protects the recipient. Still, several infectious-disease researchers contacted by The New York Times cautioned that it would be months before enough people in the United States will have gotten the shots to allow for normal life to begin again.
Only then will the number of people with immunity — those who have had the disease and recovered, plus those who have been vaccinated — be large enough to take the wind out of the pandemic, said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia who shared his team’s modeling calculations.
Dr. Shaman estimates that more than 105 million people have already been infected across the U.S., well above the number of cases that have been reported. And his projections show millions more infections are yet to come as the vaccine rolls out.
Merck today announced that the company is discontinuing development of its SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccine candidates, V590 and V591, and plans to focus its SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 research strategy and production capabilities on advancing two therapeutic candidates, MK-4482 and MK-7110. This decision follows Merck’s review of findings from Phase 1 clinical studies for the vaccines. In these studies, both V590 and V591 were generally well tolerated, but the immune responses were inferior to those seen following natural infection and those reported for other SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 vaccines. Merck continues to advance clinical programs and to scale-up manufacturing for two investigational medicines, MK-7110 and MK-4482 (molnupiravir); molnupiravir is being developed in collaboration with Ridgeback Bio.
- MK-7110 (formerly CD24Fc) is a potentially first-in-class investigational recombinant fusion protein that modulates the inflammatory response to SARS-CoV-2, principally by targeting a novel immune pathway checkpoint. Interim results from a Phase 3 study showed a greater than 50 percent reduction in the risk of death or respiratory failure in patients hospitalized with moderate to severe COVID-19. Full results from this study are expected in the first quarter of 2021. In December, Merck announced a supply agreement with the U.S. government to advance the manufacturing and initial distribution of MK-7110 (link).
- Molnupiravir (MK-4482) is an oral novel investigational antiviral agent being developed in collaboration with Ridgeback Bio. Molnupiravir is currently being evaluated in Phase 2/3 clinical trials in both the hospital and out-patient settings. The primary completion date for the Phase 2/3 studies is May 2021. The company anticipates initial efficacy data in the first quarter of 2021, which Merck plans to share publicly if clinically meaningful.
A complete massacre, a horror film’: inside Brazil’s Covid disaster – The Guardian
Coari [an area WSW of Manaus, Brazil] was at the centre of Latin America’s latest coronavirus catastrophe last week after a surge in infections linked to a new and seemingly more contagious variant overwhelmed hospitals in Brazil’s Amazonas state, leaving many without even the most basic supplies. Circumstances were so bleak oxygen tankers were rushed over the border from Venezuela, the economically collapsed nation next door, with its leader, Nicolás Maduro, decrying what he called “Jair Bolsonaro’s public health disaster”.
“It’s a very chaotic situation. We just can’t keep up with the number of patients coming to us,” said Marcus Lacerda, an infectious disease specialist from Amazonas’s crisis-hit capital, Manaus.
“Private hospitals don’t want to take anyone else in because they’re afraid of admitting a patient and then running out of oxygen again.”
Manaus made international headlines in April after a torrent of Covid deaths forced authorities to carve mass graves out of the city’s rust-red earth. Nine months – and more than 210,000 Brazilian deaths – later, the situation is even worse.
Some days about 200 bodies are being interred in Manaus, compared with the usual 40. Last week many hospitals ran out of the oxygen sustaining Covid patients, apparently because of a catastrophic government failure to foresee the magnitude of the impending disaster.
Moderna Finds COVID-19 Vaccine Still Protects Against Emerging Strains – NPR
Moderna says tests show its COVID-19 vaccine offers protection against new variants of the coronavirus, but that the vaccine is more effective against the variant first identified in the U.K. than one found in South Africa. As a result, Moderna will test booster doses of its vaccine – including one that would be tailored to fight strains that have recently emerged.
The newly identified strains have caused alarm, as health officials in the U.K. and South Africa say the strains appear to spread more easily than older versions of the coronavirus. They emerged in recent months, even as vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech raised hopes in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
Moderna says that at current dosage levels, its COVID-19 vaccine regimen “is expected to be protective against emerging strains detected to date.” But the company also says that when its vaccine was used against the variant initially found in South Africa, known as B.1.351, the vaccine produced levels of virus-fighting antibody titers that were around six-fold less than when it’s used against other variants.
“These lower titers may suggest a potential risk of earlier waning of immunity to the new B.1.351 strains,” Moderna said.
As for the variant found in the U.K., known as B.1.1.7, the company says it found “no significant impact on neutralizing titers against the B.1.1.7 variant relative to prior variants.”
[editor’s note: Also read Moderna says its vaccine provokes a weaker response against the South African variant and Moderna said it is working on a Covid-19 vaccine booster shot to help protect people against a virus variant recently discovered in South Africa.]
Coronasomnia: Pervasive Sleeplessness Raises Concerns – Medscape
Among the many losses suffered by millions worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, the loss of sleep may be the most widespread, with potentially long-lasting, negative consequences on physical, mental, and emotional health, sleep researchers have found.
Results from multiple studies and surveys conducted during the pandemic show that a majority of subjects report clinically meaningful changes in sleep quality, sleep patterns, and sleep disturbances.
For example, a cross-sectional international survey conducted from late March through late April 2020 found that among more than 3,000 responders from 49 countries, 58% reported dissatisfaction with their sleep, and 40% reported a decrease in sleep quality during the pandemic, compared with pre-COVID-19 sleep, according to Uri Mandelkorn of the Natural Sleep Clinic in Jerusalem, and colleagues.
“In particular, this research raises the need to screen for worsening sleep patterns and use of sleeping aids in the more susceptible populations identified in this study, namely, women and people with insecure livelihoods or those subjected to strict quarantine. Health care providers should pay special attention to physical and psychological problems that this surge in sleep disturbances may cause,” they wrote. The report is in the Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine.
A coauthor of that study, David Gozal, MD, FCCP, a pediatric pulmonologist and sleep medicine specialist at the University of Missouri in Columbia, said that the pandemic has had paradoxical effects on sleeps patterns for many.
“At the beginning, with the initial phases of lockdown for COVID, for most of the people whose jobs were not affected and who did not lose their jobs, [for whom] there was not the anxiety of being jobless and financially strapped, but who now were staying at home, there was actually a benefit. People started reporting getting more sleep and, more importantly, more vivid dreams and things of that nature,” he said in an interview.
China wanted to show off its vaccines. It’s backfiring. – New York Times
China’s coronavirus vaccines were supposed to deliver a geopolitical win that showcased the country’s scientific prowess and generosity. Instead, in some places, they have set off a backlash.
Officials in Brazil and Turkey have complained that Chinese companies have been slow to ship the doses and ingredients. Disclosures about the Chinese vaccines have been spotty. The few announcements that have trickled out suggest that China’s vaccines, while considered effective, cannot stop the virus as well as those developed by Pfizer and Moderna, the American drugmakers.
In the Philippines, some lawmakers have criticized the government’s decision to purchase a vaccine made by a Chinese company called Sinovac. Officials in Malaysia and Singapore, which ordered doses from Sinovac, have had to reassure their citizens that they would approve a vaccine only if it has been proven safe and effective.
At least 24 countries, most of them low and middle income, signed deals with the Chinese vaccine companies because they offered access at a time when richer nations had claimed most of the doses made by Pfizer and Moderna. But the delays in getting the Chinese vaccines and the fact that the vaccines are less effective mean that those countries may take longer to vanquish the virus.
Beijing officials who had hoped the vaccines would burnish China’s global reputation are now on the defensive. The state news media has started a misinformation campaign against the American vaccines and promoting the Chinese vaccines as a better alternative. They have also distributed online videos that have been shared by the anti-vaccine movement in the United States.
The vaccines are also meant to prove that China has become a scientific and diplomatic powerhouse. It remains on par with the United States in the number of vaccines approved for emergency use or in late-stage trials. Sinopharm, a state-owned vaccine maker, and Sinovac have said they can produce up to a combined two billion doses this year, making them essential to the global fight against the coronavirus.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
A year ago Saturday, the city of Wuhan in China started its COVID-19 lockdown. How is it faring now?
A strict lockdown in northeast China has left residents short of food and medicine
Spain Mental Health: The relentless rise in infections and hospitalizations in Spain following the holiday season is once again straining hospitals and increasingly threatening the mental health of workers. For nearly a year now, doctors and nurses have been fighting the pandemic with little time to rest.
Lebanon’s Hospitals: They are on the brink: Unable to keep up with coronavirus patients, they have run out of beds, oxygen tanks, ventilators and medical staff.
China Disinformation: Beijing is trying to spread doubt about the effectiveness of Western vaccines and the origin of the coronavirus as a World Health Organization-selected team of scientists are in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic first broke out. Controls imposed on information about the disease by the ruling Communist Party have prompted questions about what the scientists are allowed to see.
Mexico Leader Stricken: President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said he has tested positive for COVID-19, making the announcement as his country registers the highest levels of infections and deaths to date.
Israel Spike: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will be closing its international airport to nearly all flights as the government races to bring a raging outbreak under control.
“It Was All A Lie”: Biden-Linked WHO Adviser Says COVID-19 ‘Likely’ Leaked From Wuhan Lab
The Biden administration is about to ban nearly all non-U.S. travelers from South Africa, Brazil, the U.K., and 26 countries in Europe to try to keep these variants out of the U.S.
Some countries in Europe will now recommend medical-grade masks instead of cloth masks for the public.
Angered By New Coronavirus Restrictions, Protesters In Netherlands Clash With Police
Coronavirus pandemic cost equivalent of 255 million jobs: UN report
Germany purchases 200K doses of COVID-19 treatment given to Trump
Further cases of UK variant found at German hospital under quarantine after outbreak
EU could approve AstraZeneca vaccine this week, says German health ministry spokesman
Ukraine reopens schools and restaurants after a week of strict lockdown.
Mexico expects Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine to be delivered soon
Hong Kong authorizes emergency use of Fosun-BioNTech Covid-19 shot
Japan won’t achieve herd immunity before Olympics: researcher
Japan reports rise in Covid-19 deaths at home
Austria makes medical-grade masks mandatory on public transport and in shops
Pfizer applies for vaccine approval in South Korea
Israel imposes almost total ban on incoming flights for one week
Second batch of China’s Sinovac coronavirus vaccine arrives in Turkey
Australia halts New Zealand travel bubble for 72 hours
Australia approves Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for Covid-19
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Travel Restrictions: In the meantime, White House officials say Biden will today formally reinstate COVID-19 travel restrictions on non-U.S. travelers from Brazil, Ireland, the United Kingdom and 26 other European countries that allow travel across open borders
California EMTs: For emergency medical technicians, the coronavirus is constantly close. It has become their biggest fear, riding with them in ambulances from 911 call to 911 call, from patient to patient.
The Miami Heat will screen fans at its arena with coronavirus-sniffing dogs, The Associated Press reported.
The National Park Service has closed the Washington Monument until further notice “as a measure to protect staff and visitors from the spread of COVID-19.” The monument had already been closed since Jan. 11 because of security concerns around President Joe Biden’s inauguration, NPS said.
California has shielded the public from data used to determine when stay-at-home orders are lifted within the state.
California Lifts Stay-At-Home Orders: ‘Light At The End Of The Tunnel’
[California governor] Gavin Newsom, Facing Recall, Eases Lockdown Despite Overwhelmed ICUsBudweiser to skip Super Bowl ads, donate to coronavirus vaccination awareness instead
Fauci says Trump pressured him to be ‘more positive’ on pandemic
Georgia Reports Jump in Cases of Coronavirus Variant
Utah Officials Allegedly Failed to Disclose Mink Farm Worker Died of COVID
COVID Outbreak at Birthday Party Thrown for Pet Cat Leads to 15 Infections [in the small Chilean coastal town of Santo Domingo]
U.K. COVID Variant That May be More Deadly Found in 22 U.S. States
Chicago school district and teachers union are deadlocked on returning to classes.
Google to lend its facilities for use as vaccine clinics.
The New York Times reported Friday that Pfizer executives successfully pushed officials at the Food and Drug Administration in recent weeks to revise the wording of the vaccine’s emergency use authorization to formally count the sixth dose toward its federal contract.
The U.S. government has started to give healthcare providers new syringe kits to extract six shots from each Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine vial. Yet, syringe maker Becton Dickinson does not have the capacity to boost production of the specialty syringes needed to squeeze more doses from the vaccine vials in the coming weeks, according to a Reuters report citing an executive.
Gottlieb: Pfizer sending fewer Covid vaccine vials to account for extra doses
CVS completes first round of vaccines in skilled nursing facilities
Dr. Anthony Fauci addressed the trend of wearing two masks to protect from Covid during an interview with NBC News’ TODAY. “So if you have a physical covering with one layer, you put another layer on, it just makes common sense that it likely would be more effective,” Fauci told TODAY. “That’s the reason why you see people either double masking or doing a version of an N95.”
Google Maps will soon display Covid-19 vaccination sites in four US states
It’s possible that many American children won’t get back in the classroom this school year. Teachers unions are wary about returning to in-person instruction and parents are complaining.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
January 2021 Texas Manufacturing Index Moderates
December 2020 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Shows Little Change
The Household Shift From Paid Work To Home Production
Countries With The Most Hospital Beds
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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