Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 21.1 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 3.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 12.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 182,695
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 122,700
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 4,375
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 5.0 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths worsened
- Current charts are showing a “holiday” peak is behind us – hopefully, this improving trend will remain in play even with the new strains
- New COVID-19 Variant Defeats Plasma Treatment, MABs, May Reduce Vaccine Efficacy
- Some COVID-19 mutations may dampen vaccine effectiveness
- Monoclonal antibody treatment by Eli Lilly found to cut risk of serious COVID-19
- England’s third lockdown shows ‘no evidence of decline’ in Covid rates
- The man coordinating Israel’s Covid response reportedly suggested a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine might not be as effective as reported
- WHO Updates Its COVID-19 test standards for the PCR test as it pick up an excessive number of false positives
- Deaths in Elderly After COVID-19 Vaccine: Warning or False Alarm?
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 4% of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 4% [there is the issue that you could still be a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]
- it is unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 4% reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. There continues to be worries that the South Africa variant is immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
New COVID-19 Variant Defeats Plasma Treatment, MABs, May Reduce Vaccine Efficacy – Reuters
The new COVID-19 variant identified in South Africa can evade the antibodies that attack it in treatments using blood plasma from previously recovered patients, and may reduce the efficacy of the current line of vaccines, scientists said on Wednesday.
Researchers are racing to establish whether the vaccines currently being rolled out across the globe are effective against the so-called 501Y.V2 variant, identified by South African genomics experts late last year in Nelson Mandela Bay.
“This lineage exhibits complete escape from three classes of therapeutically relevant monoclonal antibodies,” the team of scientists from three South African universities working with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) wrote in a paper published ahead of peer review on the bioRxiv website (https://bit.ly/2Y0lHEt).
“Furthermore, 501Y.V2 shows substantial or complete escape from neutralising antibodies in COVID-19 convalescent plasma,” they wrote, adding that their conclusions “highlight the prospect of reinfection … and may foreshadow reduced efficacy of current spike-based vaccines.”
The 501Y.V2 variant is 50% more infectious than previous ones, South African researchers said this week. It has already spread to at least 20 countries since being reported to the World Health Organisation in late December.
It is one of several new variants discovered in recent months, including others first found in England and Brazil.
The variant is the main driver of South Africa’s second wave of COVID-19 infections, which hit a new daily peak above 21,000 cases earlier this month, far above the first wave, before falling to about 12,000 a day.
The paper said it remained to be seen how effective current vaccines were against 501Y.V2, which would only be determined by large-scale clinical trials. But results showed the need for new vaccines to be designed to tackle the evolving threat, it said.
[editor’s note: also read South Africa COVID Variant Study Prompts Questions About Vaccines]
Some COVID-19 mutations may dampen vaccine effectiveness – AP
Scientists are reporting troubling signs that some recent mutations of the virus that causes COVID-19 may modestly curb the effectiveness of two current vaccines, although they stress that the shots still protect against the disease.
Researchers expressed concern Wednesday about the preliminary findings, in large part because they suggest that future mutations could undermine vaccines. The research tested coronaviruses from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil, and was led by Rockefeller University in New York with scientists from the National Institutes of Health and elsewhere.
A different, more limited study out Wednesday gave encouraging news about one vaccine’s protection against some of the mutations.
One way vaccines work is to prompt the immune system to make antibodies that block the virus from infecting cells. The Rockefeller researchers got blood samples from 20 people who had received either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine and tested their antibodies against various virus mutations in the lab.
With some, the antibodies didn’t work as well against the virus — activity was one-to-threefold less, depending on the mutation, said the study leader, Rockefeller’s Dr. Michel Nussenzweig.
“It’s a small difference but it is definitely a difference,” he said. The antibody response is “not as good” at blocking the virus.
Earlier research established that the two vaccines are about 95% effective in preventing COVID-19 illness.
… The news comes at “a really important time in the pandemic,” said Dr. Buddy Creech, a vaccine specialist at Vanderbilt University,
“We’ve got an arms race between the vaccines and the virus. The slower we roll out vaccine around the world, the more opportunities we give this virus to escape” and develop mutations, he said.
[editor’s note: also read New coronavirus variant could be problematic for vaccines, a second study in two days suggests]
Monoclonal antibody treatment by Eli Lilly found to cut risk of serious COVID-19 – USA Today
A drug developed by Eli Lilly dramatically reduced the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 among nursing home residents, the company said.
Of 299 residents, half of whom received a placebo, those randomized to receive the drug bamlanivimab had up to an 80% lower risk of contracting COVID-19, according to a study that has not yet been published.
Health care providers at the same nursing homes were statistically less likely to contract symptomatic COVID-19 after receiving bamlanivimab, which was delivered in a 4,200 mg dose. Among 41 residents who already tested positive for the virus, none died after receiving the drug compared with four deaths in the placebo group.
The BLAZE-2 COVID-19 prevention trial was conducted in partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Bamlanivimab, which is authorized for use in high-risk COVID-19 patients with mild to moderate disease, is a so-called monoclonal antibody – meaning it provides a manufactured version of antibodies the immune system naturally makes to fight an infection.
WHO Finally Updates Its COVID-19 Testing Policy… One Hour After Biden’s Inauguration – PJ Media
In August of last year, The New York Times published an article stating that as many as 90% of COVID-19 tests in three states were not indicative of active illness. In other words, they were picking up viral debris incapable of causing infection or being transmitted because the cycle threshold (Ct) of the PCR testing amplified the sample too many times.
Labs in the United States were using a Ct of 37-40. Epidemiologists interviewed at the time said a Ct of around 30 was probably more appropriate. This means the CDC’s COVID-19 test standards for the PCR test would pick up an excessive number of false positives. The Times report noted that the CDC’s own data suggested the PCR did not detect live virus over a Ct of 33. The reporter also noted that clinicians were not receiving the Ct value as part of the test results.
Yet a PCR test instruction document from the CDC that had been revised five times as of July 13, 2020, specified testing and interpretation of the test using a Ct of 40. On September 28, 2020, a study published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases from Jaafar et al. had asserted, based on patient labs and clinical data involving nearly 4,000 patients, that a Ct of 30 was appropriate for making public policy. An update to the CDC instructions for PCR testing from December 1, 2020, still uses a Ct of 40.
Shortly before the New York Times article was published, the CDC revised its COVID-19 test recommendations, saying that only symptomatic patients should be tested. The media went insane, and Dr. Fauci went all over television saying he was not part of the decision to change the testing standards:
… within an hour of Joe Biden being inaugurated and signing an executive order mandating masks on all federal property, the WHO sent out a notice to lab professionals using the PCR test. It said:
WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology.
This translates to “in the absence of symptoms, a high Ct value means you are highly unlikely to become ill or get anyone else sick in the absence of very recent exposure to an infected person.” Dr. Fauci knew this in July when he said that tests with a Ct above 35 were likely picking up viral debris or dead virus. Even at a Ct of 35, the incidence of virus samples that could replicate is very low, according to Jaafar et al. The only state I know that requires reporting the Ct with every test is Florida, which started this policy in December.
In short, a positive PCR test in the absence of symptoms means nothing at a Ct of higher than 30, according to the experts interviewed by the New York Times and according to Jaafar et al. Yet positive tests is the number CNN loves flashing on the screen. If the percentage found by the Times in August holds, there have been approximately 2.43 million actual cases to date, not 24.3 million. There is also no way to calculate the deaths from COVID-19 rather than deaths with some dead viral debris in the nostrils.
Biden Hits Ground Running on COVID – MedPage
Biden signed an executive order on masks that asks Americans to “do their part — their patriotic duty — and mask up for 100 days.” It also requires masking and physical distancing in all federal buildings, on all federal land, and by federal employees and contractors. The order also directs the CDC and the Department of Health and Human Services to work with tribal, state, and local governments to implement masking and distancing in their communities.
Another executive order mandates the establishment “within the Executive Office of the President the position of Coordinator of the COVID-19 Response … and the position of Deputy Coordinator of the COVID-19 Response.” The coordinator and deputy coordinator will both report directly to Biden, and their duties will include reducing racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 response, care, and treatment; coordinating federal efforts to produce, supply, and distribute personal protective equipment, vaccines, tests, and other supplies; and to expand the use of COVID-19 testing. The coordinators also will spearhead efforts to safely reopen schools, childcare programs, and Head Start programs.
As for WHO, the Biden administration will participate in a WHO Executive Board meeting this week, with Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the Trump administration’s Coronavirus Task Force, leading the delegation remotely, according to a White House fact sheet. “Once the United States resumes its engagement with the WHO, the Biden-Harris administration will work with the WHO and our partners to strengthen and reform the organization, support the COVID-19 health and humanitarian response, and advance global health and health security,” the fact sheet said. President Trump had withdrawn the U.S. from the WHO in May 2020 because he said it helped China — where the COVID-19 virus originated — hide its poor response to the virus.
[editor’s note: also read Here are the 10 executive orders Biden’s signing to combat the Covid pandemic]
Israel, one of the top countries when it comes to vaccinating against Covid-19, bought large stocks of the jab in exchange for acting as the world’s guinea pig.
And scientists are watching data shared by the country keenly, for signs of how effective the vaccine is when given to a whole population.
Thousands of people have tested positive after being jabbed. But are worries premature?
Addressing Prof Nachman Ash’s quotes, the Israeli Ministry of Health said: “The comments of the Israeli Covid-19 commissioner regarding the effect of the first dose of the vaccine were out of context and, therefore, inaccurate.
“The commissioner said we have yet to see a decrease in the number of severely ill patients.”
The “full protective impact of the vaccine” was expected to be seen soon, a spokesperson added.
After vaccination, the body needs time to recognise the virus’s genetic material and mount an immune response – producing the antibodies and T-cells that block the virus from entering cells and killing off those cells that do become infected.
And it takes a minimum of two weeks – but probably more – to really take effect, immunologists including Prof Danny Altmann at Imperial College London, say.
… Clalit, Israel’s largest healthcare provider, covering most of the population, compared the medical records of 200,000 vaccinated over-60s with the same number belonging to unvaccinated people.
For two weeks after the first dose, both groups tested positive for the virus at roughly the same rate.
But then those vaccinated started to show 33% fewer new infections than the others.
“This is very early protection,” said Clalit chief innovation officer, Ran Balicher, who is also a public health professor advising the government.
And “already there is a 33% fall”.
Infections continued to decline after that.
But there were too few for Prof Balicher to calculate by what percentage.
Deaths in Elderly After COVID-19 Vaccine: Warning or False Alarm? – Medscape
A small number of deaths in elderly patients across Europe who had received a COVID-19 vaccine is no cause for concern, says the French Agency for the Safety of Health Products (ANSM).
On January 14, the Norwegian Medicines Agency reported 23 deaths potentially linked to the Pfizer/BioNTec COVID-19 vaccine (Comirnaty), swiftly followed by a further five deaths, alongside 20 serious adverse effects, announced on January 19.
As of January 19, there were “71 observed deaths linked to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine” across Europe, “including 16 in the UK and 12 in Germany,” the French Health Minister told Medscape French Edition.
However, the French agency believes that, taking into account the available evidence, there is “nothing to suggest that the reported deaths were linked to the vaccination.”
Together, these cases affect “elderly people, the very old with comorbidities,” the French Minister added. Specifically, 35% of the people who died were over aged 90 years, 46% were older than 80 years, and almost all were over 70 years.
Are these deaths in frail older people directly linked to the vaccine? Could a classic adverse effect of the vaccine, such as fever, destabilize particularly vulnerable people to the point of death?
We talked to Professor Joël Belmin, MD, PhD, head of geriatrics and vaccination coordinator at l’hôpital Charles-Foix, Paris, France, who is calling for people to not jump to conclusions, as vaccination can save many lives.
“In older people, due to their great frailty, a significant amount of spontaneous mortality is expected. In a retirement home, one in five people dies each year. It’s therefore difficult to directly attribute these deaths to the fact that these people were vaccinated,” he explained.
England’s third lockdown shows ‘no evidence of decline’ in Covid rates, study says – CNBC
- The closely watched REACT-1 study, led by Imperial College London, warned that health services would remain under “extreme pressure” and the cumulative number of deaths would increase rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was reduced substantially.
- It comes shortly after the U.K. recorded another all-time high of coronavirus deaths.
- “These findings show why we must not let down our guard over the weeks to come,” Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Sri Lanka has reopened to foreign tourists after a nearly 10-month pandemic closure that cut deeply into the Indian Ocean island nation’s lucrative travel industry.
Britain’s approval of AstraZeneca’s vaccine was a boon to mass immunization efforts in the U.K.
Daily Covid-19 deaths and cases decline in the UK, but infection rates are still high in London
UK giving 200 vaccines every minute, says health secretary, as it reports record death toll
China is ramping up efforts to beat back its worst COVID-19 resurgence yet.
Madrid Begins Mass Testing Young People for COVID-19
Fire Breaks Out At World’s Biggest COVID Vaccine Plant in India
COVID-19 Infections Haven’t Declined in England Despite Lockdown
Portugal Shuts Schools, Blames Variant for COVID-19 Surge
Russia’s Sputnik vaccine gets first approval in the EU, UAE amid ongoing trials
Lebanon will receive World Bank’s first Covid-19 vaccine rollout
China to give half a million vaccine doses to Pakistan for free
Hungary becomes first EU country to approve Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine
Cuba aims to produce 100 million doses of its Sovereign-02 vaccine this year
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Vaccine Van: More potential COVID-19 vaccines to fight the pandemic still are being tested, and some researchers in the U.S. are driving mobile labs into neighborhoods to recruit diverse volunteers. With scarce supplies of the Pfizer and Moderna shots, proving whether additional vaccines work is critical
Results from clinical trials of the vaccine being developed by Johnson & Johnson are expected by the end of this month. The vaccine could dramatically speed up the fight against the pandemic because it would require only one dose and would not need to be stored at super-cold temperatures.
Alzheimer’s deaths skyrocket as patients’ lives ‘upended’ by pandemic
How to get everything you need delivered to your home
The hold on one particular batch of Moderna vaccine — a precaution taken on Sunday due to allergic reactions — has been lifted in California.
CDC’s Anne Schuchat will be leading a review of all existing COVID-19 guidance under the new CDC director Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH.
Amazon offered to help the White House with any technologies it needs for its vaccination campaign. The company also said it would help its 800,000 employees get vaccinated.
New York City had to cancel 23,000 first-dose vaccine appointments this week when supplies fell short.
‘We Have No Space’: LA County Funeral Director Describes Virus’s Toll
Advocacy groups call for including Type 1 diabetes among prioritized vaccine recipients
Doctor that promoted false hydroxychloroquine claims arrested in connection with Capitol riot
Biden releases national COVID strategy, will order agencies to use Defense Production Act
Texas County Cuts Program Prioritizing COVID Vaccines for Minorities
Ohio Vaccine Distributor Suspended After Mishandling More Than Half of Its COVID Doses
Fauci Praises WHO for ‘Relentless’ Work on Anniversary of First U.S. Case
Biden COVID-19 Czar Says Supply Shortage ‘So Much Worse’ Than Exexpected
United Airlines said demand for Mexico and some Caribbean beach destinations has softened after the U.S. announced it will require international travelers to test negative for Covid-19 before flying to the United States.
New CDC director doesn’t think Covid-19 vaccine will be in every US pharmacy by February
Couples struggle with sleep problems in the Covid-19 pandemic
Vaccinating all residents 65 and older may take up to 5 months, says California health official
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
16 January 2021 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Declines
December 2020 Residential Building Growth Improves
January 2021 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Improves
16 January 2021 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Worsens
Twenty Reasons To Prefer Degrowth To The Green New Deal
COVID-19 Misinformation: Scientists Create A ‘Psychological Vaccine’ To Protect Against Fake News
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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