Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 19.4 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 3.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 13.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 174,589
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 123,820
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 2,727
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 4.9 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths improved
- Current charts are showing a “holiday” peak is behind us – hopefully, this improving trend will remain in play even with the new strains
- COVID Spread More Indoors by Talking Than Coughing, Study Suggests
- New COVID Variant In Brazilian Amazon Is More Deadly To Younger People
- Pfizer, BioNTech say vaccine likely as effective against COVID-19 variant first found in UK
- These coronavirus variants are keeping scientists awake at night
- Thousands of COVID-19 Vaccines Ruined During Shipping
- Can Negative Results with BinaxNOW Test Be Trusted?
- Patients Fend for Themselves to Access COVID Antibody Treatments
- The deregulated immune reaction and cytokines release storm (CRS) in COVID-19 disease
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?
Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 4% of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 4% [there is the issue that you could still be a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]
- it is unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 4% reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. There continues to be worries that the South Africa variant is immune to the current vaccines.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
COVID Spread More Indoors by Talking Than Coughing, Study Suggests – Newsweek
Talking may spread COVID more than coughing, according to scientists who have created an app to help calculate the risk of passing on the virus in different settings.
The team based in the U.K. also found social distancing at 2 meters (6.5 feet) in a poorly ventilated room was unlikely to protect others from the virus.
The study adds to existing research suggesting COVID can spread in big droplets that result from coughs, as well as in smaller aerosol particles emitted when we speak and breathe.
Talking may spread COVID more than coughing, according to scientists who have created an app to help calculate the risk of passing on the virus in different settings.
The team based in the U.K. also found social distancing at 2 meters (6.5 feet) in a poorly ventilated room was unlikely to protect others from the virus.
The study adds to existing research suggesting COVID can spread in big droplets that result from coughs, as well as in smaller aerosol particles emitted when we speak and breathe.
Based on this, the team created a website, Airborne.cam, enabling users to calculate how ventilation may affect the spread of COVID indoors.
The team found a short cough appeared to give off as much liquid as a person speaking continuously for 30 seconds. However, speaking seemed to carry more virus than coughing.
Their research also suggests it takes “only a few seconds” for virus particles at levels above the amount needed to infect a person to travel 2 meters (6.5ft). This implies that social distancing in poorly ventilated spaces will likely not protect people against the virus for long periods of time, the scientists wrote.
New COVID Variant In Brazilian Amazon Is More Deadly To Younger People – UOL [article in Portuguese and translated to English by Google Translate]
For four days in the capital of Amazonas, UOL heard reports from professionals who attest that the new phase of covid-19 has greater transmissibility caused by mutations that have generated a new variant in the state.
In addition, the data shows that younger people are dying now. According to death records in the past 30 days, four out of ten dead were under 60 in the state.
“Something very different is happening in Manaus. I don’t know if it is a new strain or if it is something different. But those on the front line are seeing an increase in the severity of the cases”, says infectologist and researcher Noaldo Lucena, who works in popular clinic, home care and public hospitals.
The changes, he says, go beyond the already known greater contagiousness of the new variant of the virus.
Clearly, we are facing an invisible being that is much more pathogenic and transmissible. Today whole families arrive with the symptoms at the same time, before it was one at a time.
… The UOL analyzed the latest data Transparency Portal of the registry offices. There were 710 deaths in the state (since it may still increase), of which 285 were people under 60 years old – or 40.1% of the total. Before that period, this percentage was 36.5%. “Without a doubt many more young people are dying. We are not just talking about a risk group: this is in all age groups, affecting babies, children, teenagers even without comorbidity”, points out the infectologist Silvia Leopoldina, who also works in the state public networks and municipal of Manaus. The doctor says there were changes in the behavior of the disease in the state. “Before, the first symptoms of severity appeared around the tenth day onwards. Now there are patients who, with seven, eight days, are involved in 75% of both lungs.”
Can Negative Results with BinaxNOW Test Be Trusted? – MedPage
Compared with PCR testing, Abbott’s rapid antigen test picked up fewer cases in both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, researchers found.
Data from two community testing sites in Arizona showed sensitivity of 64% with the BinaxNOW test for specimens from symptomatic individuals and 35.8% in asymptomatic individuals, with real-time PCR testing as the gold-standard reference, reported Jessica Prince-Guerra, PhD, of the CDC, and colleagues.
When examining specimens positive for viral culture, the rapid antigen test did better but still short of perfect (92.6% sensitivity for symptomatic and 78.6% for asymptomatic individuals), the authors wrote in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
However, they noted that in clinical context, real-time RT-PCR provides “the most sensitive assay to detect infection,” and viral culture “is still an artificial system and is subject to limitations.”
Pfizer, BioNTech say vaccine likely as effective against COVID-19 variant first found in UK – The Hill
A study conducted by Pfizer and BioNTech found that their coronavirus vaccine is likely just as effective against the strain first found in the U.K. that is estimated to be more contagious.
The companies published the study on preprint server bioRxiv, saying that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is expected to be effective against any mutations from the coronavirus variant, called B.1.1.7., that first emerged in the U.K. in September.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, concluded that there were “no biologically significant difference in neutralization activity” between trials involving the original COVID-19 strain and B.1.1.7.
The research on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine found that antibodies in the blood of 16 participants, who had previously received the vaccine, neutralized all mutations from B.1.1.7. Eight of the participants were between 18 and 55, and the other eight were between 56 and 85.
Researchers cautioned that mutations of the COVID-19 strain and other variants will demand “continuous monitoring of the significance of changes for maintained protection by currently authorized vaccines.”
Thousands of COVID-19 Vaccines Ruined During Shipping – WebMD Health News
More than 16,000 doses of the Moderna vaccine were compromised this week while en route to states, either because the temperatures were too cold or too hot to maintain vaccine integrity.
Michigan officials announced that 11,900 doses among 21 shipments were unusable after the temperature used to store the vaccine became too cold, according to Click On Detroit, an NBC News affiliate.
McKesson Corp., the distributor, informed Michigan officials that the temperature shifted out of range during shipping. Moderna’s vaccine must be stored between -25°C and -15°C (-13°F and 5°F).
“This is the first report of vaccine potentially being compromised during shipment in Michigan, and we are working quickly with the distributor to have replacement vaccine shipped out,” Joneigh Kaldhun, MD, the state’s chief medical executive, told Click On Detroit in a statement.
McKesson identified the underlying cause and has taken steps to prevent issues in the future, the news outlet reported. Some of the gel packs that are used to maintain the correct temperatures during shipping were too cold.
The majority of the 21 shipments were resent Monday night, Michigan officials said, though six shipments were held back to check for safety.
Patients Fend for Themselves to Access COVID Antibody Treatments – Medscape
Months after Trump emphatically credited an experimental antibody therapy for his quick recovery from covid and even as drugmakers ramp up supplies, only a trickle of the product has found its way into regular people. While hundreds of thousands of vials sit unused, sick patients who, research indicates, could benefit from early treatment — available for free — have largely been fending for themselves.
Federal officials have allocated more than 785,000 doses of two antibody treatments authorized for emergency use during the pandemic, and more than 550,000 doses have been delivered to sites across the nation. The federal government has contracted for nearly 2.5 million doses of the products from drugmakers Eli Lilly and Co. and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals at a cost of more than $4.4 billion.
So far, however, only about 30% of the available doses have been administered to patients, federal Department of Health and Human Services officials said.
Scores of high-risk covid patients who are eligible remain unaware or have not been offered the option. Research has shown the therapy is most effective if given early in the illness, within 10 days of a positive covid test. But many would-be recipients have missed this crucial window because of a patchwork system in the U.S. that can delay testing and diagnosis.
South Africa COVID Variant Study Prompts Questions About Vaccines – Newsweek
A new, more infectious variant of COVID from South Africa has been shown to evade antibodies in a preliminary study, prompting fears vaccines may not work against it. However, experts have stressed the study, although well-conducted, must be approached with caution.
Scientists at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa set out to understand whether antibodies, including those taken from the blood of people who recovered from the original form of COVID, can neutralize the new variant named 501Y.V2.
The variant has nine changes in the spike protein COVID uses to invade the body. It emerged in South Africa in the second half of 2020 and has so far appeared in over a dozen countries including the U.K., Switzerland, Finland, Japan, Australia, Zambia, France, South Korea, and Austria.
It has not been reported in the U.S., although Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Newsweek earlier this month that it is likely circulating.
[editor’s note: also read Variant might partially evade protection from vaccines or prior infection, early research suggests]
These coronavirus variants are keeping scientists awake at night – CNN
At least four new variants of the coronavirus are keeping scientists awake at night.
One, first identified in southeast England, has now shown up in at least 50 countries and appears to be spreading more efficiently than older variations of the virus. Its appearance has frightened political leaders, who have closed borders and imposed travel restrictions in attempts to curb its spread.
Others, identified in South Africa and Brazil, haven’t traveled as far and wide but show a constellation of mutations that have grabbed the attention of geneticists.
B.1.1.7: At the top of the list for researchers in the United States is the B.1.1.7 variant first seen in Britain. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned last week it could worsen the spread of the pandemic.
While there’s nothing like the phrase “mutant new virus” to grab the attention, scientists say so far they are reassured by what they have found: The human immune system can handle the variants that have sprung up so far.
B.1.351: A variant first seen in South Africa called B.1.351 or 501Y.V2, has a different pattern of mutations that causes more physical alterations in the structure of the spike protein than B.1.1.7 does. One important mutation, called E484K, appears to affect the receptor binding domain – the part of the spike protein most important for attaching to cells.
P.1 and P.2: Two variants of concern have shown up first in Brazil. One, called P.1., has been found in 42% of specimens in one survey done in the Brazilian city of Manaus, and Japanese officials found the variant in four travelers from Brazil. P.2, also first seen in Brazil, caused a flurry of alarm when it turned up in Britain last week in 11 people.
L425R: Finally, there’s a new variant seen in California called L425R, and while it’s being found commonly, it’s not yet clear if it’s more transmissible.
The deregulated immune reaction and cytokines release storm (CRS) in COVID-19 disease – ScienceDirect
- SARS-CoV-2 infections can be broadly kept in three categories: mild, moderate and critical.
- Critical patients display deregulated innate and acquired immune response.
- Innate response display delayed release of type-I interferons.
- Acquired immune response exhibit lymphocytopenia, involving decrease in CD8 + Tc cells, CD4 + Th cells and B-lymphocytes.
- Tregs and IL-6 play important role in dysregulation.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Mexico Oxygen: Thefts of oxygen are mounting as the country posted a record one-day confirmed virus death toll of 1,584.
China Infections: Beijing recorded another seven coronavirus cases amid a lingering outbreak in the country’s north. Dozens of other cases were reported in northern provinces and around Beijing.
China builds massive Covid-19 quarantine camp for 4,000 people as outbreak continues
EU Eyes Scheme to Share Surplus COVID-19 Vaccines With Poorer Nations
EU targets vaccinating at least 70% of the adult population by the summer
U.K. COVID variant has now been reported in 20 U.S. states and 60 countries
UK records deadliest day since the start of the pandemic, with 1,820 new deaths
New Zealand’s 20,000-Person Concert Marks 2 Months Without COVID in Country
Doctors in Peru stage a hunger strike over the government’s pandemic response.
W.H.O. sees record global death toll, but some signs cases are declining.
The Netherlands will ban many flights and implement a nationwide curfew.
Vatican starts vaccinating Rome’s homeless
Japan to buy enough Pfizer doses to half of population by July
Zimbabwe’s foreign affairs minister dies from Covid-19
Frustration visibly boiled over with some Canadian leaders Tuesday as Pfizer told Canada that it would not receive any vaccine doses next week due to the continuing manufacturing disruptions at its facility in Belgium. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sought to reassure Canadians that the vaccine deliveries would pick up again in a few weeks and that the overall goal, to have every willing citizen vaccinated by September, would remain on track.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Vaccine spoiled: About 11,900 doses of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine were spoiled because of temperature control issues during delivery to Michigan. An additional 4,400 doses will not be used in Maine due to the same issue.
56% of those surveyed say they will get the vaccine as soon it was available to them, a jump of 10 percentage points since the USA TODAY poll in December and up 30 points since October.
Biden is slated to have the U.S. resume its membership in the World Health Organization (WHO) on his first day in office, with National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci, MD, leading the U.S. delegation. The incoming administration also plans an order requiring masks and social distancing on federal property.
Moderna said it is working closely with the FDA and CDC as it investigates possible allergic reactions to its COVID-19 vaccine in California.
Free weed for a COVID jab: anyone showing written proof of a COVID-19 vaccine can get a free pre-rolled joint, a Michigan marijuana dispensary announced.
Rhode Island suspended a North Providence physician’s license after an investigation showed he “recklessly” exposed patients and staff to COVID-19.
Pharmacist Accused Of Tampering With COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Charged With Misdemeanor
Biden expected to ask surgeon general to resign after inauguration ceremony: report
Biden’s first executive order will require masks on federal property
COVID Vaccines in Colorado Can Now Be Given by Vets, Opticians, Dentists
Much of Texas remains overrun by the virus, threatening U.S. progress.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
December 2020 Sea Container Imports Continue At Record Pace. Exports Decline Year-over-Year.
December 2020 Trucking Improved
Did Covid-19 Disproportionately Affect Mothers Labor Market Activity?
Understanding The Racial And Income Gap In COVID-19: Public Transportation And Home Crowding Part II
How Anti-Vax Memes Replicate Through Satire And Irony
The Covid-19 Pandemic Shows The Need For Change – For A Real ‘Reset’
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 18 January 2021 Down 16 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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