Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 15.4 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 3.8 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 20.5 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 204,652
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 129,748
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,731
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 2.7 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations improved, and deaths improved
- A Nursing Home Had Zero COVID Deaths. Then, It Vaccinates Residents And The Deaths Begin
- Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine on track to apply for emergency use authorization at end of the month
- Gut germs could affect coronavirus risk
- US shifts to speed vaccinations; won’t hold back 2nd doses
- Moderna is developing three new mRNA-based vaccines for seasonal flu, HIV and Nipah virus
- UK Authorities Shut Down Vitamin D Recommendation for COVID
- Concern Over Response to COVID-19 in Patients With Blood Cancers
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays – Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Just Beginning To Normalize After The Holiday Season
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is not all good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 4 % every week.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of year holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating since.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
We Are Likely In A Pandemic Surge Caused By The Holidays And Virus Mutation
The “experts” will tell you they told you so – and you should have stayed at home instead of traveling to be with the people you care about. And there is some truth in this opinion.
But there will be no way to accurately understand the impact of the holidays because there are new mutant strains of the coronavirus that are more transmissible.
To gauge the impact of anything, you change ONLY ONE variable at a time (and hopefully in a controlled environment). There are now two variables in play – and it is nearly impossible to separate the impact of each.
You can track the effective reproduction rate of the virus [here]. It shows how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Moderna is developing three new mRNA-based vaccines for seasonal flu, HIV and Nipah virus – Techcrunch
Moderna, the biotech company behind one of the two mRNA-based vaccines currently being rolled out globally to stem the tide of COVID-19, has announced that it will pursue development programs around three new vaccine candidates in 2021. These include potential vaccines for HIV, seasonal flu and the Nipah virus. Moderna’s development and clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine is among the fastest in history, and thus far its results have been very promising, buoying hopes for the efficacy of other preventative treatments being generated using this technology which is new to human clinical use.
An mRNA vaccine differs from typical, historical vaccines because it involves providing a person with just a set of instructions on how to build specific proteins that will trigger a body’s natural defenses. The mRNA instructions, which are temporary and do not affect a person’s actual DNA, simply prompt the body’s cells to produce proteins that mirror those used by a virus to attach to and infect cells. The independent proteins are then fought off by a person’s natural immune response, which provides a lasting lesson in how to fight off any future proteins that match that profile, including those which help viruses attach to and infect people.
Moderna’s new programs will target not only seasonal flu, but also a combinatory vaccine that could target both the regular flu and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that leads to COVID-19. The HIV candidate, which is developed in collaboration with both the AIDS Vaccine Initiative and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, is expected to enter into Phase 1 trials this year. Nipah virus is a highly lethal illness that can cause respiratory and neurological symptoms, and which is particularly a threat in India, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Singapore.
Indeed, mRNA-based vaccines have long held potential for future vaccine development, in part because of their flexibility and programmability, and in part because they don’t use any active or dormant virus, which reduces their risks in terms of causing any direct infections up front. The COVID-19 pandemic spurred significant investment and regulatory/health and safety investment into the technology, paving the way for its use in other areas, including these new vaccine candidate trials by Moderna.
U.S. to change vaccine allocation to favor states that quickly administer shots – CNBC
- The government is changing the way it allocates Covid vaccine doses, now basing it on how quickly states can administer shots and the size of their elderly population.
- States will be given two weeks to prepare for the change, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told reporters during a news briefing.
- That should give states enough time to improve their data reporting to the government and ensure all vaccinations are being “promptly” documented, he said.
UK Authorities Shut Down Vitamin D Recommendation for COVID – Mercola
… According to new COVID-19 guidance2 from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), Public Health England and the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN), there’s insufficient evidence to support the recommendation to take oral vitamin D for the sole reason of preventing or treating COVID-19.
With that, they are backtracking on previous recommendations issued by British health officials who, in November 2020, urged people to take supplemental vitamin D this winter to reduce their risk of respiratory infections, including COVID-19.3
What’s more, while the new guidance does urge Britons to take a vitamin D supplement between October and March, it only recommends a dose of 400 IUs a day, which is easily 10 times lower than what most people would require for general health and immune function.
While the panel agreed low vitamin D was associated with more severe COVID-19 outcomes, they claim it’s impossible to confirm causality due to inconsistencies between the studies (such as dosing, setting, populations, duration and definitions of outcomes), and because vitamin D deficiency and severe COVID-19 share many of the same risk factors.
According to professor Ian Young, who chairs SACN, “This evidence review confirms that currently there is not enough available evidence to determine that there is a causal relationship between vitamin D and COVID-19.”
A Nursing Home Had Zero COVID Deaths. Then, It Vaccinates Residents And The Deaths Begin – ZeroHedge
Things seem to be working backwards at The Commons on St. Anthony nursing home in Auburn, New York.
Vaccinating people is supposed to reduce or end coronavirus deaths. Right?
But, at The Commons, such deaths are reported to have occurred only after residents began receiving coronavirus vaccinations.
James T. Mulder wrote Saturday at syracuse.com that until December 29 there had been no coronavirus deaths at The Commons.
December 29, when deaths of residents with coronavirus began occurring at The Commons, is also, Mulder’s article discloses, seven days days after the nursing home began giving coronavirus vaccinations to residents, with 80 percent of residents so far having been vaccinated.
Over a period of less than two weeks since December 29, Mulder relates that 24 coronavirus-infected residents at the 300-bed nursing home have died.
The nursing home began vaccinating residents Dec. 22.
So far 193 residents, or 80%, and 113 employees, or less than half the staff, have been vaccinated.
The nursing home plans to do more vaccinations Jan. 12.
Is the timing just a strange coincidence?
HHS, FDA duel over top lawyer as officials fear last-minute moves – Politico
The Food and Drug Administration cycled through three different top lawyers on Monday, a personnel shake-up driven by ongoing clashes between the agency and the Health and Human Services department that oversees it, said four officials with knowledge of the deliberations.
The unusual sequence began with Trump appointee Stacy Cline Amin abruptly stepping down as chief counsel and the FDA announcing that career civil servant Mark Raza would be her acting replacement. Then, HHS on Monday night announced that Trump political appointee James Lawrence would instead serve as chief counsel — a move that unnerved health officials as the Trump administration heads into its final week. Two officials said that White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows backed Lawrence as FDA’s top lawyer.
“We were all very surprised,” said a senior FDA official. “But it’s consistent with all the fire bombs that keep getting thrown over the fence.”
Three FDA officials said they were bracing for HHS to push through additional last-minute policy changes, noting that HHS on Monday announced new deregulatory policies that were partly steered by Lawrence. The moves, which roll back some of FDA’s reviews, were opposed by the agency and its allies, who argued that it weakened regulators’ authority amid the pandemic.
US shifts to speed vaccinations; won’t hold back 2nd doses – AP
Barely a month into a mass vaccination campaign to stop the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trump administration unexpectedly shifted gears Tuesday to speed the delivery of shots. A slow start had triggered widespread concern from states and public health officials.
Now, Health and Human Services Alex Azar has announced two major changes. First, the government will no longer hold back required second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, practically doubling supply. Second, states should immediately start vaccinating other groups lower down the priority scale, including people age 65 and older, and younger people with certain health problems.
The move better aligns the outgoing administration with the new Biden-Harris team. On Friday, President-elect Joe Biden said he will rapidly release most available vaccine doses to protect more people. He said he supported immediately releasing vaccines that health authorities were holding back out of caution, to guarantee they would be available for people needing their second dose.
“We had been holding back second doses as a safety stock,” Azar said on ABC. “We now believe that our manufacturing is predictable enough that we can ensure second doses are available for people from ongoing production. So everything is now available to our states and our health care providers.”
Simultaneously, he gave states the green light to dramatically expand the pool of people eligible to receive vaccines.
“We are calling on our governors to now vaccinate people aged 65 and over, and under age 65 with a (health condition) because we have got to expand the group,” he said.
Gut Microbiome and COVID-19 Severity: New Evidence for Link – MedPage
The gut microbiome may play a role in COVID-19 severity, a lab study suggested.
Patients with depleted levels of certain species of bacteria were associated with elevated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines, and blood markers including C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and aspartate aminotransferase, reported Siew Ng, PhD, of The Chinese University of Hong Kong, and colleagues, in Gut.
The researchers noted that patients with severe disease exhibit high blood plasma levels of inflammatory cytokines and inflammatory markers, and that there is “substantial involvement” of the gastrointestinal tract in SARS-CoV-2 infection, given “altered gut microbiota composition in SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects.” They hypothesized gut microbiota would be associated with host inflammatory immune responses in COVID-19.
The authors examined blood and stool samples from 100 confirmed positive COVID-19 patients in two Hong Kong hospitals from February to March 2020, including serial stool samples in 27 of 100 patients up to 30 days after clearance of SARS-CoV-2. Eleven patients had hypertension, but fewer than five patients had any other comorbidity. In total, 41 patients provided multiple stool samples during their hospital stay and/or follow-up after discharge.
Patients had a mean age of about 36, and 53 were men. Nearly all patients had mild or moderate disease, with only 5% with severe and 3% with critical disease.
Compared with a group of adult controls without COVID-19, these patients had more Ruminococcus gnavus, Ruminococcus torques, and Bacteroides dorei species, regardless of whether or not patients received medication.
When examining samples from 87 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, researchers found a “continuum” among the mild, moderate, severe, and critical patients “indicating a stratification of gut microbiota composition associated with disease severity.” Measurements of cytokines and certain enzymes from plasma were “significantly associated with microbiota composition,” and in fact “increased concomitant with microbiota composition representing more severe disease states.”
[editor’s note: also read Gut germs could affect coronavirus risk, study finds]
Concern Over Response to COVID-19 in Patients With Blood Cancers – Medscape
Patients with cancer, particularly those with solid tumors, mounted an immune response to COVID-19 similar to that seen in people without cancer, but among patients with hematologic cancers, immune responses were less pronounced and were highly variable, typically taking longer to clear the virus.
The findings come from a small UK study published online January 4 in Cancer Cell as a fast-track preprint article.
The findings may have implications for vaccinating against COVID-19, say the researchers, led by Sheeba Irshad, MD, PhD, a Cancer Research UK clinician scientist based at King’s College London, London, United Kingdom.
“Our study provides some confidence and reassurance to care providers that many of our patients with solid cancers will mount a good immune response against the virus, develop antibodies that last, and hopefully resume their cancer treatment as soon as possible,” Irshad said in a statement.
Covid strain found in South Africa ‘could evade’ Eli Lilly’s antibody drug, CEO warns – CNBC
Eli Lilly Chairman and CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC on Tuesday he expects the company’s Covid-19 antibody drug to be effective against the coronavirus variant found in the U.K.
However, he said the strain found in South Africa likely presents greater challenges.
“The South African variant … is the one of concern. It has more dramatic mutations to that spike protein, which is the target” of these antibody drugs, Ricks said on “Squawk Box.” “Theoretically, it could evade our medicines.”
Eli Lilly’s antibody drug received emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in November. The drug is targeted toward people who are recently diagnosed with Covid-19, with the hopes of preventing the need for hospitalization. Regeneron‘s Covid-19 antibody treatment, which President Donald Trump received after contracting the disease, also has received limited clearance from the FDA.
Ricks said Eli Lilly wants to work with the FDA to be able to quickly test different versions of antibodies to see whether they would be effective against virus variants such as the one found in South Africa.
Drugmaker Johnson & Johnson could apply for emergency use authorization of its Janssen Covid-19 vaccine around the end of this month, Moncef Slaoui of Operation Warp Speed said during a briefing on Tuesday.
Slaoui said millions of doses should be available by the end of February.
“We are very clear – we, meaning Operation and Janssen Pharmaceuticals – that analysis will be completed before the end of the month, and EUA submission will take place at the end of this month,” Slaoui said on Tuesday.
“In terms of vaccine dose availability, if submission is happening at the end of January, one could project that approval of the emergency use authorization may happen somewhere in the middle of the month of February,” Slaoui added.
“We project to have single-digit million number of doses available in the second half of February,” Slaoui said. “We’re trying to make that number get as close to a double-digit number as possible and then a larger number in March and a much larger number in April. Remember, this is a one-shot vaccine so those are millions of individuals fully immunized.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
England’s chief medical officer warned that the coming weeks will be the worst of the pandemic for the National Health Service, describing it as ”the most dangerous time we’ve really had” as he appealed to the public to more closely follow prevention measures.
Peru Hospitals: The intensive care units at hospitals in Peru are at capacity as virus cases keep rising. These days, 20 patients are vying to get a bed in the ICU of a hospital in Lima, the capital. Peruvians are begging for ICU beds on social media as the daily rise in infections has reached 1,500.
South Africa’s Surge: The nation is struggling to cope with a spike in cases driven by the spread of its more infectious variant during widespread holiday travel. As the numbers of new infections rise, South Africa’s hospitals are exceeding capacity.
Lebanon will tighten its nationwide lockdown, including ordering up an 11-day, 24-hour curfew that starts later in the week.
Malaysia’s king has approved a coronavirus emergency that will suspend parliament and halt any bids to call an early general election in a political reprieve for embattled Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. Kuala Lumpur, the administrative capital and five states will return to a near-lockdown beginning Wednesday.
Herd Immunity: The World Health Organization’s chief scientist has warned that even as numerous countries start rolling out vaccination programs to stop COVID-19, herd immunity is highly unlikely this year.
Greece’s Isolation in Death: COVID-19 victims endure harrowing isolation before and after death in Thessaloniki, the city in Greece most acutely affected by the virus.
Portugal’s president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has tested positive for the virus.
WHO official warns global herd immunity from COVID-19 won’t happen until 2022
Travel Body Rejects Compulsory COVID-19 Shots as Experts Say Herd Immunity Not Close
Don’t Expect a Conclusion From WHO’s China Visit, Says Expert
‘Pre-existing weaknesses’ hindered the U.S. pandemic response, researchers find.
The Gulf’s leisure and commercial capital Dubai, a popular vacation spot for travelers seeking a sense of normal life during the pandemic, has been taken off the U.K.’s “safe travel corridor” — along with the rest of the UAE — in the wake of daily Covid cases tripling within the span of two weeks in the small desert sheikhdom.
A European Union official said AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine could be available across the EU in mid-February.
Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, issues stay-at-home order
Netherlands lockdown extended by three weeks
India prepares its mammoth vaccine rollout
Ireland’s Covid-19 infection rate was world’s highest last week
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Chicago reopened public-school classrooms for the first time since March, for 6,000 prekindergarten and special-education students.
Several gorillas at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park tested positive, the first known apes in the country to do so.
Idaho Internet Provider Blocks Facebook, Twitter After Customers Complain About Censorship
Two House members said they tested positive for COVID-19 after sheltering from Capitol rioters in a secure room last Wednesday: Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.), a 75-year-old cancer survivor, and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who blamed some Republican colleagues for refusing to wear masks. At least one GOP member is known to have been infected.
Third House Democrat tests positive for COVID-19 after Capitol riots
Coleman will receive a monoclonal antibody treatment per the advice of her physician.
An international trial on convalescent plasma for COVID-19 was halted after the treatment failed to improve outcomes in patients with moderate to severe disease needing intensive care.
Los Angeles County, the current COVID epicenter in the U.S., advises essential workers to wear masks at home.
As of Jan. 11, more than 8.9 million COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the U.S., according to CDC data, and about 25 million doses have been distributed.
Moderna said it believes its COVID-19 vaccine will guard against infection for at least a year.
COVID Vaccines to Be Given at Disneyland, Dodger Stadium in California
The Mets’ home stadium will be a mass vaccination site, Mayor de Blasio says.
Coronavirus linked to largest drop in greenhouse gas emissions since World War II: research
Two more NBA games postponed as league considers changes to COVID-19 safety protocols
California Swinger Party Attended By Over 200 People Busted By Police
CDC will require a negative Covid-19 test for international passengers flying to US
National Guard is helping administer the Covid-19 vaccine in 12 US states
More than 50% of Florida’s vaccines have gone to senior population, governor says
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
November 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Year-over-Year Growth Rate Improved
October 2020 Loan Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Rise but Pace Moderating
December 2020 Small Business Optimism Drops Below Index Average in December
Most Bankruptcies Since Great Recession
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 11 January 2021 Down 25 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity. However, How Many Americans Are Immune From COVID? Research into the coronavirus is running way behind the need for answers. Whilst we strive for herd immunity through vaccination – we lack an understanding of the general immunity people might have to the pandemic. This will affect the point herd immunity can be reached. The following articles discuss immunity: Can the Common Cold Help Protect You from COVID-19?, Does the Common Cold Protect You from COVID-19?, Immune cells for the common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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