Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 14.5 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 4.4 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 22.7 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 213,905
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 129,229
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 1,814
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 2.7 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths worsened
- UK health secretary says it’s unclear if being vaccinated reduces the risk of transmitting Covid-19
- Hospitals say syringes supplied by feds waste vaccine doses
- Is Your COVID Vaccine Venue Ready for Life-Threatening Reactions?
- New COVID Variant Detected in Japan Has ‘Potential’ to Be More Infectious
- South Africa Testing Vaccines on Variant, Hopes for Results Within 2 Weeks
- Acute Brain Dysfunction Prolonged in COVID-19 ICU Patients
- Scientists Discover a Way to Control the Immune System’s “Natural Killer” Cells With “Invisible” Stem Cells
- Gilead CEO expects remdesivir to effectively treat Covid strains found in UK, South Africa
- BioNTech says Covid vaccine is effective against key new strains; to publish more data in days
- U-Haul Reveals 2020 Migration Trends As Pandemic And Taxes Take Toll
​
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays – Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Just Beginning To Normalize After The Holiday Season
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is all good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 4 % every week.
For the Thanksgiving and the end of year holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating since.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
We Are Likely In A Pandemic Surge Caused By The Holidays And Virus Mutation
The “experts” will tell you they told you so – and you should have stayed at home instead of traveling to be with the people you care about. And there is some truth in this opinion.
But there will be no way to accurately understand the impact of the holidays because there are new mutant strains of the coronavirus that are more transmissible.
To gauge the impact of anything, you change ONLY ONE variable at a time (and hopefully in a controlled environment). There are now two variables in play – and it is nearly impossible to separate the impact of each.
You can track the effective reproduction rate of the virus [here]. It shows how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Acute Brain Dysfunction Prolonged in COVID-19 ICU Patients – MedPage
Acute brain dysfunction — coma or delirium — occurred frequently and was prolonged in critically ill COVID-19 patients, a large multicenter cohort study showed.
Of more than 2,000 COVID-19 ICU patients in 14 countries, 82% were comatose for a median of 10 days, reported Rafael Badenes, MD, PhD, of the University of Valencia in Spain, and co-authors in Lancet Respiratory Medicine. For the 55% showing delirium, the median duration was 3 days.
Acute brain dysfunction lasted a median of 12 days, twice what’s usually seen with other ICU patients. Benzodiazepine use and family visits were identified as modifiable risk factors for COVID-19 delirium.
Prolonged acute brain dysfunction is “a harbinger of bad outcomes,” said co-author Wes Ely, MD, of Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville. Earlier research has shown that delirium duration is a predictor of mortality, length of stay, cost of care, and acquired dementia, he noted.
“What we’re learning is that COVID in the ICU is like a delirium factory,” Ely told MedPage Today. “It’s a reason to have our hackles up and say OK, what are we going to do about it?”
The study looked at 2,088 COVID-19 patients admitted to 69 ICUs before April 28, 2020. Median patient age was 64, with median Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II of 40 on admission; most were men (71.7%) and white (76.5%). Patients who were moribund or who had life-support measures withdrawn within 24 hours of ICU admission and those with pre-existing mental illness, neurodegenerative disorders, or brain damage were excluded.
UC San Francisco scientists have discovered a new way to control the immune system’s “natural killer” (NK) cells, a finding with implications for novel cell therapies and tissue implants that can evade immune rejection. The findings could also be used to enhance the ability of cancer immunotherapies to detect and destroy lurking tumors.
The study, published today (January 8, 2021) in the Journal of Experimental Medicine, addresses a major challenge for the field of regenerative medicine, said lead author Tobias Deuse, MD, the Julien I.E. Hoffman, MD, Endowed Chair in Cardiac Surgery in the UCSF Department of Surgery.
“As a cardiac surgeon, I would love to put myself out of business by being able to implant healthy cardiac cells to repair heart disease,” said Deuse, who is interim chair and director of minimally invasive cardiac surgery in the Division of Adult Cardiothoracic Surgery. “And there are tremendous hopes to one day have the ability to implant insulin-producing cells in patients with diabetes or to inject cancer patients with immune cells engineered to seek and destroy tumors. The major obstacle is how to do this in a way that avoids immediate rejection by the immune system.”
Deuse and Sonja Schrepfer, MD, PhD, also a professor in the Department of Surgery’s Transplant and Stem Cell Immunobiology Laboratory, study the immunobiology of stem cells. They are world leaders in a growing scientific subfield working to produce “hypoimmune” lab-grown cells and tissues – capable of evading detection and rejection by the immune system. One of the key methods for doing this is to engineer cells with molecular passcodes that activate immune cell “off switches” called immune checkpoints, which normally help prevent the immune system from attacking the body’s own cells and modulate the intensity of immune responses to avoid excess collateral damage.
Schrepfer and Deuse recently used gene modification tools to engineer hypoimmune stem cells in the lab that are effectively invisible to the immune system. Notably, as well as avoiding the body’s learned or “adaptive” immune responses, these cells could also evade the body’s automatic “innate” immune response against potential pathogens. To achieve this, the researchers adapted a strategy used by cancer cells to keep innate immune cells at bay: They engineered their cells to express significant levels of a protein called CD47, which shuts down certain innate immune cells by activating a molecular switch found on these cells, called SIRP. Their success became part of the founding technology of Sana Biotechnology, Inc, a company co-founded by Schrepfer, who now directs a team developing a platform based on these hypoimmune cells for clinical use.
Hospitals say syringes supplied by feds waste vaccine doses – Politico
Hospitals are throwing out doses of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine because the federal government is giving some of the facilities syringes that can only extract five doses from vials that often contain more.
Pharmacists discovered early in the U.S. vaccination push that the standard five-dose vials of the vaccine from Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech often contained enough material for six or even seven shots.
But some syringes distributed by Operation Warp Speed, the federal Covid-19 vaccine program, aren’t efficient enough to extract a sixth dose, according to hospital lobbyists. They say the issue appears to stem from supply chain problems that have troubled the nation’s pandemic response from the start.
In the meantime, some hospitals are worried they won’t have enough vaccine to give a second dose to everyone they’ve inoculated so far – since the Pfizer vaccine is given as two shots weeks apart.
Federal officials acknowledged to POLITICO they are aware of the syringe problem. “Operation Warp Speed is quickly evaluating options to reconfigure the accompanying ancillary supply kits to accommodate the potential additional doses,” according to a Department of Health and Human Services spokesperson.
HHS did not respond to a question about whether its decision to ship out less-efficient syringes was related to supply chain issues.
Warp Speed packs vaccination kits with needles and syringes to send with its weekly shipments of vaccines. The more-efficient syringes, known as “low dead-volume” syringes, are a specialty item that are included in the kits “as available, and as part of a combination of needles and syringes to meet the needs of all patients’ body sizes,” the HHS spokesperson said.
U-Haul Reveals 2020 Migration Trends As Pandemic And Taxes Take Toll – ZeroHedge
A new report has found that Tennessee posted the largest net gain of U-Haul trucks than any other state in 2020, making it U-Haul’s top growth state for the first time.
Growth rates are determined by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a given year. U-Haul keeps tabs on more than two million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions annually, allowing the company to observe migration trends, according to the report published by U-Haul.
“Tennessee’s influx of do-it-yourself movers during a turbulent year marked by the coronavirus pandemic means that a state other than Florida and Texas tops the growth rankings for the first time since 2015 when North Carolina led the way,” the report said.
Texas and Florida were the top two other destinations. For three consecutive years, Texas had the largest net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks before Florida displaced it for the number one spot last year.
Before the pandemic, Americans fled liberal-run states and metro areas because of high taxes to conservative states that were business-friendly, such as Texas and Florida. The pandemic certainly amplified the exodus.
Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia made up the rest of the top ten states with a net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks.
On the flip side, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Oregon were the top five states with the most significant net loss of U-Haul trucks.
Full List: States Ranked By Migration Growth
Asymptomatic transmission accounts for 59% of coronavirus cases – JAMA
Main Outcomes and Measures Level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from presymptomatic, never symptomatic, and symptomatic individuals.
Results The baseline assumptions for the model were that peak infectiousness occurred at the median of symptom onset and that 30% of individuals with infection never develop symptoms and are 75% as infectious as those who do develop symptoms. Combined, these baseline assumptions imply that persons with infection who never develop symptoms may account for approximately 24% of all transmission. In this base case, 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms. Under a broad range of values for each of these assumptions, at least 50% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections was estimated to have originated from exposure to individuals with infection but without symptoms.
Conclusions and Relevance In this decision analytical model of multiple scenarios of proportions of asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 and infectious periods, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmissions. In addition to identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19, effective control of spread will require reducing the risk of transmission from people with infection who do not have symptoms. These findings suggest that measures such as wearing masks, hand hygiene, social distancing, and strategic testing of people who are not ill will be foundational to slowing the spread of COVID-19 until safe and effective vaccines are available and widely used.
Most Hospitalized COVID Patients Not Fully Recovered 6 Months Post-Discharge – MedPage
Three-quarters of patients previously hospitalized with COVID-19 continued to report at least one symptom six months later, Chinese researchers found.
Fatigue or muscle weakness were by far the most common symptoms (63%), followed by sleep difficulties (26%), and 23% of patients said they had anxiety or depression, reported Bin Cao, MD, of China-Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, and colleagues, writing in The Lancet.
“Our analysis indicates that most patients continue to live with at least some of the effects of the virus after leaving the hospital, and highlights a need for post-discharge care, particularly for those who experience severe infections,” Cao said in a statement. “Our work also underscores the importance of conducting longer follow-up studies in larger populations in order to understand the full spectrum of effects that COVID-19 can have on people.”
It’s the largest cohort with the longest follow-up so far for adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19, as researchers around the world examine the so-called “long COVID” phenomenon. Other recent studies focused on long-term neurologic symptoms in patients in Italy, as well as abnormalities in the lungs in British patients.
Cao and colleagues also noted, “no studies have yet reported the extrapulmonary organ manifestations that could persist after damage in acute stage or are new onset after discharge.”
Is Your COVID Vaccine Venue Ready for Life-Threatening Reactions? – Kaiser Health News
As the rollout of covid-19 vaccines picks up across the U.S., moving from hospital distribution to pharmacies, pop-up sites and drive-thru clinics, health experts say it’s vital that these expanded venues be prepared to handle rare but potentially life-threatening allergic reactions.
“You want to be able to treat anaphylaxis,” said Dr. Mitchell Grayson, an allergist-immunologist with Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio. “I hope they’re in a place where an ambulance can arrive within five to 10 minutes.”
Of the more than 6 million people in the U.S. who have received shots of the two new covid vaccines, at least 29 have suffered anaphylaxis, a severe and dangerous reaction that can constrict airways and send the body into shock, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Such incidents have been rare – about 5.5 cases for every million doses of vaccine administered in the U.S. between mid-December and early January – and the patients recovered. For most people, the risk of getting the coronavirus is far higher than the risk of a vaccine reaction and is not a reason to avoid the shots, Grayson said.
Still, the rate of anaphylaxis so far is about five times higher for the covid vaccines than for flu shots, and some of those stricken had no history of allergic reactions. In this early phase of the vaccine rollout, all the patients were treated in hospitals and health centers that could offer immediate access to full-service emergency care.
As states look to scale up distribution, the shots will be administered by a varied assortment of professionals at venues including drugstores, dental offices and temporary sites attended by National Guard troops, among others. Health officials say every site involved in the wider community rollout must be able to recognize problems and have the training and equipment to respond swiftly if something goes wrong.
“We are really pushing to make sure that anybody administering vaccines needs not just to have the EpiPen available but, frankly, to know how to use it,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, in a call with reporters. She was referring to a common epinephrine injector that many people with severe allergies carry with them. Those health care workers must also know the warning signs of the need for advanced care, she added.
South Africa Testing Vaccines on Variant, Hopes for Results Within 2 Weeks – Reuters Health News
South African scientists are testing whether vaccines will be less effective against a COVID-19 variant first detected locally and hope for initial results within two weeks, a professor at the national communicable disease institute said.
The variant, known as 501Y.V2, was identified by South African genomics experts late last year and is thought to be more contagious than older variants.
Professor Penny Moore told Reuters the National Institute of Communicable Diseases had received samples from several local vaccine trials, including Oxford University and AstraZeneca’s shot, and would try to find out whether antibody responses are reduced against 501Y.V2.
“The assays are now robustly set up and so we can start the vaccine studies, which are really very time-sensitive so we hope to have some preliminary results for at least two of the trials within the next two weeks,” she said on Friday.
Moore said the NICD would run tests on all the vaccines being trial led in South Africa, including doses being developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax.
She said concerns expressed by British scientists and politicians this week that vaccines may not be as effective against the 501Y.V2 variant were not unfounded because of worrying mutations in the spike protein the virus uses to infect human cells.
New COVID Variant Detected in Japan Has ‘Potential’ to Be More Infectious – Newsweek
Anew coronavirus variant identified in Japan over the weekend has the “potential” to be more infectious, although whether or not this is the case has yet to be determined, health officials have said.
The new variant, which differs from others recently found in South Africa and the U.K., was detected in four travelers who arrived in Japan after flying from Brazil’s Amazonas state, Japan’s Health Ministry said on Sunday.
Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) said it was not immediately clear how infectious the new variant is.
“At the moment, there is no proof showing the new variant found in those from Brazil is high in infectiousness,” NIID head Takaji Wakita told a health ministry briefing, according to Reuters.
But while the new variant detected in Japan differs from those identified in South Africa and the U.K., it does share one mutation with these two, which could indicate that it may be more transmissible.
[editor’s note: also read Japan says travelers from Brazil carried mutations similar to Covid-19 variants seen in UK and South Africa]
Gilead CEO expects remdesivir to effectively treat Covid strains found in UK, South Africa – CNBC
Gilead Sciences CEO Daniel O’Day told CNBC on Monday the company is testing remdesivir to determine whether it is effective in treating new coronavirus strains that emerged in the U.K. and South Africa.
“Remdesivir works at the source in the cell where the virus replicates, and what we know is in these new variants, that part of the cell is not changing at all in fact,” O’Day said on “Squawk Box.” “So, we fully expect remdesivir to be effective against these new strains.”
The antiviral drug, which last fall became the first fully approved treatment for Covid-19 in the U.S., has helped shorten the recovery time for some patients who are hospitalized with the disease. President Donald Trump received it after he was diagnosed with Covid in October.
The coronavirus variants initially found in the U.K. and South Africa are believed to be more transmissible than other strains, causing alarm among some medical professionals that they could lead to further burden on health-care systems. These strains do not appear to be deadlier. Multiple U.S. states have detected the virus variant found in the U.K.
BioNTech says Covid vaccine is effective against key new strains; to publish more data in days – CNBC
- “We are confident that based on the mechanism of our vaccine, even though there are mutations, we believe that the immune response which is induced by our vaccine could also deal with (a) mutated virus,” Dr. Ugur Sahin, co-founder and CEO of BioNTech, told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell on Monday.
- Public health experts have expressed concern the new mutant strains could pose a threat to inoculation efforts.
- When asked how quickly BioNTech could pivot if it turned out the existing Covid vaccine was found to be ineffective against new variants, Sahin said “one key advantage” of the mRNA technology was that it would allow the company to adapt the vaccine “relatively quickly.”
UK health secretary says it’s unclear if being vaccinated reduces the risk of transmitting Covid-19 – CNN
British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was still unclear the extent to which being vaccinated reduces one’s risk of transmitting coronavirus.
“We know that the vaccine reduces your chances of getting Covid and then of being hospitalized or dying from Covid,” Hancock said.
“What we don’t yet know … is how much you might transmit Covid – even if you don’t suffer from the disease – after you’ve had the vaccine.”“We very much hope that it has a significant downward impact on that transmissibility after you are vaccinated,” he added.
Hancock made the comments at a news briefing Monday where he announced that approximately 2.3 million people have already been vaccinated across the UK.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The U.K. is the epicenter of Europe’s COVID-19 outbreak once more,
China says World Health Organization experts will arrive Thursday for an investigation into the origins of coronavirus pandemic.
Chinese health authorities say scores more people have tested positive for the virus in Hebei province bordering on the capital Beijing.
Indonesia’s Food has authorized emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by China-based Sinovac Biotech Ltd.
WHO advisors approved delays of up to 6 weeks between doses of Pfizer/BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine.
Britain approved Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine, as well as IL-6 inhibitors tocilizumab (Actemra) and sarilumab (Kevzara) for treating critically ill COVID-19 patients.
A company was ordered to stop selling vitamin D products as a cure or treatment for COVID-19.
All South Koreans getting free vaccines, president says
Mass COVID-19 Vaccination Sites Open Across England as Cases Rise
The Palestinian Authority authorizes use of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine.
Ice festival in China goes forward amid the country’s worst outbreak in months.
Richard Branson reveals his mom – who helped him start Virgin – has died from Covid
Spain sees a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases over the weekend
Pfizer/BioNTech aims to deliver 2 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine globally by end of 2021
Germany imposes tougher restrictions as deaths mount
Moderna shot to arrive in Germany today
North Korean data reveals no Covid-19 cases, WHO says
Mexico detects first case of UK Covid-19 variant
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
California is aiming for 1 million vaccinations in 10 days.
House lawmakers may have been exposed to the coronavirus as they hid from rioters on Wednesday; Congress’ attending physician said they should all be tested this week.
First Congress Member Tests Positive for COVID After Capitol Lockdown
Elite academic centers have given coronavirus vaccine doses to administrators and others who don’t qualify by state and federal guidelines.
HHS extended the COVID-19 public health emergency until April, which prolongs waivers for telehealth and other regulations.
OSHA hasn’t inspected 26 out of the 65 meatpacking plants where at least one worker died of COVID-19, a USA TODAY investigation shows.
Biden publicly receives second dose of coronavirus vaccine
One Ambulance Ride Leads to Another When Packed Hospitals Cannot Handle Non-Covid Patients
6.7 million COVID Vaccines Given in U.S. With 70% of Available Doses Unused
Washington has another problem: The coronavirus is surging in the capital.
Rite Aid CEO Heyward Donigan said Monday she thinks retailers could get tapped to help with the U.S. vaccine effort sooner than expected
States increasingly dumping CDC recommendations in giving out coronavirus vaccines
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
December 2020 Monthly Budget Review: Budget Deficit $572 Billion In First Quarter Fiscal Year 2021
December 2020 Consumers Expect Higher Medium-Term Inflation and Home Price Growth
The Pandemics Impact On Municipal Bonds
Where Coronavirus Vaccines Will Be Produced
Vaccine Delays Reveal Unexpected Weak Link In Supply Chains: A Shortage Of Workers
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity. However, How Many Americans Are Immune From COVID? Research into the coronavirus is running way behind the need for answers. Whilst we strive for herd immunity through vaccination – we lack an understanding of the general immunity people might have to the pandemic. This will affect the point herd immunity can be reached. The following articles discuss immunity: Can the Common Cold Help Protect You from COVID-19?, Does the Common Cold Protect You from COVID-19?, Immune cells for the common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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