Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 8.2 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 4.4 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 16.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are a record 299,087
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at an elevated 123,639 (for the next 8 days this is the number to watch as new cases and deaths will not be accurately reported)
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 2,398
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 1.3% of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations worsened, and deaths worsened
- Just How Much More Transmissible Is the New Coronavirus Variant?
- ‘This is about total collapse of the health care system if we have another spike’ of Covid-19
- Three COVID Vaccines Compared
- Britain Opens Door to Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Worrying Experts
- Some Covid Survivors Haunted by Loss of Smell and Taste
- Can a shot reopen schools? Teachers should be next in COVID-19 vaccine schedule, CDC says
- Vaccine Vacation: Hundreds in India Sign Up for Tenuous Tour Package to US
- Pandemic-fueled housing boom leaves hardest hit behind
- Sociologist predicts post-pandemic “Roaring ’20s”
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus1.htm’); ?>
Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays – Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Most Reporting Is Not Timely
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put a wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends. Now we are faced with the end of the year holiday season which means reporting is sporadic and numbers will initially look good – and then as the holidays end and the reporting catches up, the numbers will look terrible. In addition, family gatherings and travel will cause more virus transmission.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is all good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 4 % every week.
The above graph demonstrates in the last week hospitalization rate of growth has been relatively steady. We have seen that the size of the impact of commingling and travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating since.
This graph is currently demonstrating that the actions to contain the pandemic are slightly working – but the rate of growth improvement is too slow as we are still seeing some record numbers. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Likely There Will Be A Pandemic Surge After New Years
The “experts” will tell you they told you so – and you should have stayed at home instead of traveling to be with the people you care about. And there is some truth in this opinion.
But there will be no way to accurately understand the impact of the holidays because there are new mutant strains of the coronavirus that are more transmissible.
To gauge the impact of anything, you change ONLY ONE variable at a time (and hopefully in a controlled environment). There are now two variables in play – and it is nearly impossible to separate the impact of each.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Econintersect published two summary articles for coronavirus news this past week:
‘This is about total collapse of the health care system if we have another spike’ of Covid-19 – CNN
Even if you don’t have coronavirus, record-high Covid-19 hospitalizations could have a devastating impact on you.
“If you are in a car accident, you’re going to want us to save your life,” said Dr. Brad Spellberg, chief medical officer at the Los Angeles County-University of Southern California Medical Center.
“If you have a heart attack or a stroke, you’re going to want to an ICU bed with trained ICU nurses and physicians who are not caring for 20 other patients at the same time.”
Some hospitals across the US started running out of health care workers months ago. But holiday gatherings are fueling new waves of Covid-19, hospitalizations.
“This is about total collapse of the health care system if we have another spike,” Spellberg said.
“And we, in the hospital, cannot stop that. We can only react to it. It is the public that has the power to put a stop to the spread of this virus by obeying the public health guidance that have been put out.”
Fauci says he’s ‘sure’ coronavirus vaccinations will be mandatory in institutions like hospitals and schools – Business Insider
- Institutions like hospitals and possibly schools will mandate that a person receives a COVID-19 vaccination, Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted.
- “I would not be surprised, as we get into the full scope of [COVID-19] vaccination, that some companies, some hospitals, some organizations might require [COVID-19] vaccination,” he said in an interview with Newsweek.
- Vaccine rollout has been slower than anticipated. About 3.5 million doses have been given out since the Food and Drug Administration approved Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines.
21 residents of retirement home get coronavirus after receiving vaccine – The Jerusalem Post
Some 21 residents of a Bat Yam retirement home tested positive for the coronavirus after they were vaccinated but before they had developed antibodies, according to Ynet.The other 150 residents of the home will be tested for the virus.
Health officials have stressed that the two-dose Pfizer vaccine regimen means that the vaccine is only fully effective about five weeks after the first dose. This means it could take until sometime in February for enough elderly and high-risk people to be vaccinated to help lower the spread of infection and start reopening the economy.
Moreover, the risk of catching coronavirus after the first jab has been confirmed in that some 15,000 patients who received the first dose of the vaccine were screened and 428 were confirmed positive for COVID-19 and some 12 people were hospitalized, according to reports. It is possible that some of them were exposed to the virus even before being vaccinated.
On Friday morning, Israel’s one millionth citizen was vaccinated against the novel coronavirus in the presence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Health Minister Yuli Edelstein.
Israel is number one per capita worldwide when it comes to vaccinations. Some 10% of the population has already received the first jab.
Some Covid Survivors Haunted by Loss of Smell and Taste – New York Times
As the coronavirus claims more victims, a once-rare diagnosis is receiving new attention from scientists, who fear it may affect nutrition and mental health.
A diminished sense of smell, called anosmia, has emerged as one of the telltale symptoms of Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. It is the first symptom for some patients, and sometimes the only one. Often accompanied by an inability to taste, anosmia occurs abruptly and dramatically in these patients, almost as if a switch had been flipped.
Most regain their senses of smell and taste after they recover, usually within weeks. But in a minority of patients like Ms. Hansen, the loss persists, and doctors cannot say when or if the senses will return.
Scientists know little about how the virus causes persistent anosmia or how to cure it. But cases are piling up as the coronavirus sweeps across the world, and some experts fear that the pandemic may leave huge numbers of people with a permanent loss of smell and taste. The prospect has set off an urgent scramble among researchers to learn more about why patients are losing these essential senses, and how to help them.
Studies have linked anosmia to social isolation and anhedonia, an inability to feel pleasure, as well as a strange sense of detachment and isolation. Memories and emotions are intricately tied to smell, and the olfactory system plays an important though largely unrecognized role in emotional well-being, said Dr. Sandeep Robert Datta, an associate professor of neurobiology at Harvard Medical School.
… Loss of smell is a risk factor for anxiety and depression, so the implications of widespread anosmia deeply trouble mental health experts. Dr. Malaspina and other researchers have found that olfactory dysfunction often precedes social deficits in schizophrenia, and social withdrawal even in healthy individuals.
Can a shot reopen schools? Teachers should be next in COVID-19 vaccine schedule, CDC says – USA Today
Teachers should be among the essential workers next in line for a COVID-19 vaccine, an advisory panel for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended last week. And some states plan to push for those vaccinations as a way to fast-track school reopenings.
The problem: The vaccine’s rollout has faced delays across the nation, raising the question of whether teachers will be able to get the shot in time to make a difference in the current school year.
In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine said in late December that school teachers and staff, plus people ages 65 and over, will be next up for the vaccine after health care workers, with a goal of getting students back in the classroom by March 1.
About 71% of Ohio students are either in remote learning or in a combination of in-person and online learning, the governor has said.
Just How Much More Transmissible Is the New Coronavirus Variant? – MedPage
The new SARS-CoV-2 variant first appearing in southern England has a transmission advantage of 0.4 to 0.7 points higher in reproduction number, also known as R0, compared to the initial strain, British researchers found.
This variant, called 202012/01, has a “substantial transmission advantage,” meaning its reproduction numbers could vary from 1.4 to 1.8, according to a multi-disciplinary team based at Imperial College London (ICL), who published their findings on the school’s website.
Led by ICL’s Erik Volz, PhD, the team found a “large and statistically significant imbalance” in regions where incidence of the variant increased and incidence of the non-variant decreased, and vice versa, which would indicate a change in R0.
Volz and colleagues also noted a larger share of individuals under age 20 among reported cases of the variant versus non-variant cases, dubbing this “a shift in age composition.” They estimated that the variant’s R0 is 40%-80% higher than for the wild-type virus.
For context in the U.S., prior research found seasonal influenza had a median reproduction number of 1.28, while the median reproduction number for the 1918 flu pandemic was 1.80.
This variant already traveled across the pond, with a Colorado man as the first documented case in the U.S. last week, though reports of the variant cropped up in other states over the holiday, including California and Florida.
Three COVID Vaccines Compared – WebMD
Vaccine developer:
Pfizer
Moderna
AstraZeneca
How it works
Messenger RNA
Messenger RNA
Inactivated cold virus
When approved/expected approval
Dec. 11, 2020
Dec. 18, 2020
Has not submitted application for emergency use authorization in U.S. Approved in United Kingdom Dec. 29, 2020.
What percentage of people did it protect from getting infected in clinical studies?
95%
94.1%
70%
How many shots do you need?
Two doses, 3 weeks apart
Two doses, 4 weeks apart
Two doses, a month apart
What are the side effects?
Fatigue, headache, chills, muscle pain, especially after the second dose
Fever, muscle aches, headaches lasting a few days. Effects worse after second dose.
Not yet known
How many doses will be available, and when?
50 million, starting Dec. 18; 1.3 billion in 2021
20 million, starting Dec. 21; 80 million for U.S. in 2021
3 billion planned for 2021
Who is it recommended for?
People 16 years and older
People 18 years and older.
Not yet available.
What about pregnant women and nursing moms?
Pregnant women or nursing moms who want the COVID-19 vaccine should get one, experts say. The vaccine has not yet been studied in pregnant women. Read guidelines here.
There’s limited data. Studies in rats who were immunized before and during pregnancy found no safety concerns. The CDC says pregnant women may choose to receive the vaccine.
Not yet available.
Is there anyone who shouldn’t get the vaccine?
People with a history of serious allergic reactions. There is not enough data to make a recommendation for people with a compromised immune system.
Not yet available.
Not yet available.
Any significant side effects?
The CDC has identified 6 cases of anaphylaxis in people who received the vaccine.
Four cases of Bell’s palsy, a type of temporary facial paralysis, were reported in people who received the vaccine, with no cases in the placebo group. This is not more than would be expected in the general population, however.
Four cases of Bell’s palsy were reported in the clinical trials including 3 in the vaccine group, and 1 in the placebo group. This is not more than would be expected in the general population, however. A doctor in Boston with a history of shellfish allergies experienced an allergic reaction to the vaccine, but he recovered quickly after using his own EpiPen.
Not yet available.
What about people with lowered immune function?
People whose immune function is lowered by HIV or immunosuppressing drugs can take the COVID vaccines if they have no other reasons to avoid getting the shot. There is limited safety data in this group. The vaccine may not work as well. Immunocompromised persons should continue to take all recommended safety precautions after vaccination.
People whose immune function is lowered by HIV or immunosuppressing drugs can take the COVID vaccines if they have no other reasons to avoid getting the shot. There is limited safety data in this group. The vaccine may not work as well. Immunocompromised persons should continue to take all recommended safety precautions after vaccination.
Not yet available.
What about people with autoimmune diseases?
No data is available on the safety or effectiveness of mRNA vaccines in people with autoimmune disease. People with autoimmune conditions may still get the shots if they have no other reasons to avoid vaccination.
No data is available on the safety or effectiveness of mRNA vaccines in people with autoimmune disease. People with autoimmune conditions may still get the shots if they have no other reasons to avoid vaccination.
Not yet available.
Is the vaccine safe for people with a history of Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS)?
To date, no cases of GBS have been seen in people vaccinated for COVID-19. The CDC says a history of GBS is not a reason to avoid vaccination.
To date, no cases of GBS have been seen in people vaccinated for COVID-19. The CDC says a history of GBS is not a reason to avoid vaccination.
Not yet available.
WebMD Health News
Pandemic-fueled housing boom leaves hardest hit behind – The Hill
The coronavirus recession is driving a wedge through the U.S. housing market, sparking concerns of worsening inequality.
Floor-low interest rates, the mass adoption of teleworking and a housing shortage have fueled a surge in home purchases and prices. The housing market is one of the few sectors of the economy that has completely recovered from the onset of the COVID-19 downturn and is expected to keep growing this year.
But while the housing boomlet has benefited homeowners, the recession has pushed many Americans further away from having the financial security to buy their first house.
Millions of Americans who have relied on federal foreclosure protections and forbearance plans to avoid homelessness during the pandemic now face deep financial holes to dig themselves out of before the economy fully recovers.
Those who have been evicted or are delinquent on other debts could find it even more difficult to get a mortgage as lenders tighten their credit standards. And soaring home prices may make homeownership unattainable even for those in seemingly good financial standing.
“As we enter 2021 and this aid lapses, there could be more households that fall into this category that could have negative impacts on their credit score, and that will undermine their ability to borrow in the future,” said Yelena Maleyev, an associate economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton.
Vaccine Vacation: Hundreds in India Sign Up for Tenuous Tour Package to US – Newsweek
When Jignesh Kumar Patel came across a flyer about a COVID-19 vaccine tourism package to the United States early this month, he immediately signed on—joining hundreds of other fellow travelers from India.
Patel, a businessman in the western state of Gujarat, has traveled to 14 countries, but the U.S. has been on his bucket list for a long time.
“If I can combine a U.S. trip with a chance to get the best quality vaccine, it is an excellent opportunity for me and my family,” said Patel, who registered for a vaccine tourism package with Zenith Holidays.
The tour agency, headquartered in Kolkata, has received more than 1,200 phone calls in the past two weeks about the travel package. Individual Indians have registered, and so has a group of 40, all interested in sightseeing and getting inoculated against the novel coronavirus before they would otherwise be able to kn their home country.
The four-day “Covid vaccine tourism package” costs about $2,000. A flyer states that bookings are limited to 100 people, and the package includes round-trip economy airfare, four-star hotel accommodations, airport transfers, and one vaccine dose per person.
Mumbai-based Gem Tours & Travels is also offering a four-day VIP package priced at about $2,300. It includes Pfizer‘s vaccine, return airfare, and also throws in breakfast. Since announcing its plan on Nov. 23, the agency says, it has logged more than 4,000 calls and registered more than 1,000 people.
Dates for the tour packages are not mentioned.
Sociologist predicts post-pandemic “Roaring ’20s” – CNN
We’re not out from under the coronavirus pandemic yet, but a Roaring ’20s-type rebound is on the horizon, according to sociologist, physician and Yale professor Nicholas Christakis.
This will take time, Christakis told CNN.
“Plagues are not new to our species; they’re just new to us,” he said.
By the beginning of 2022, we will reach herd immunity and a majority of the population will be vaccinated, he predicts, but “it’s still going to take some time to recover from the social and psychological and economic shock,” he said.
So by the end of 2023, Christakis said the world will enter the post-pandemic period, and “all of these…experiences that are now being constrained by the germ will reverse.”
“If history is a guide, what’s going to happen is all of us that have been cooped up — have been saving our money, have become more religious…more risk-averse — all of those trends will unwind and people will relentlessly seek out social opportunities in nightclubs and bars and political rallies and sporting events and musical concerts and so on. There might be…some sexual licentiousness, people with a lot of pent-up desire…[and] more liberal spending, for example,” he added.
Britain Opens Door to Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Worrying Experts – New York Times
Amid a sputtering vaccine rollout and fears of a new and potentially more transmissible variant of the coronavirus, Britain has quietly updated its vaccination playbook to allow for a mix-and-match vaccine regimen. If a second dose of the vaccine a patient originally received isn’t available, or if the manufacturer of the first shot isn’t known, another vaccine may be substituted, health officials said.
The new guidance contradicts guidelines in the United States, where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has noted that the authorized Covid-19 vaccines “are not interchangeable,” and that “the safety and efficacy of a mixed-product series have not been evaluated. Both doses of the series should be completed with the same product.”
Some scientists say Britain is gambling with its new guidance. “There are no data on this idea whatsoever,” said John Moore, a vaccine expert at Cornell University. Officials in Britain “seem to have abandoned science completely now and are just trying to guess their way out of a mess.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New strain identified in 3 states, 33 countries
UK eyes stricter lockdown provisions
France aims to vaccinate 26 million “by the summer” amid criticism of slow rollout
Thailand reports first case of UK Covid-19 variant from a British family
Outbreak at South Korean prison rises to 1,084 Covid-19 cases
India conducts nationwide Covid-19 vaccine drill as vaccines get emergency approval
India formally approves two Covid-19 vaccines for emergency use
Israel mulls tightening Covid restrictions even as vaccination program powers ahead
Saudi Arabia lifts entry ban on travelers arriving by air and sea
New Zealand to require US and UK travelers to test negative for coronavirus before departing
Tokyo governor and others urge Japan’s government to declare state of emergency over Covid-19
Fleeing Lockdown, Americans Are Flocking to Mexico City. Hospitals are at capacity and coronavirus cases are surging, but many foreigners, especially Americans, are heading to the Mexican capital — some intending to stay awhile.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Heart failure in children: Another rare complication
Sioux Tribe prioritizing vaccine for speakers of native language
A ‘come as you are’ vaccination plan
Inflatable Costume May Have Led to 43 Hospital Staff Getting COVID—Official
Celebs Send Best Wishes To Larry King After COVID Hospitalization Reports
The Los Angeles area is hit with a Christmas coronavirus surge.
A teacher whose class video made her a national sensation dies from Covid-19 at 35.
The homes of Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi were reportedly vandalized.
For more than a month, US hospitals have had more than 100,000 coronavirus patients every day
Arizona ICUs at 93% capacity as state reports 8,883 new Covid-19 cases
Inequities partly to blame for California Covid-19 surge, says Cuban-born doctor
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Understanding The Impact Of COVID-19: The Top Five LSE Posts Of 2020
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 03January 2021
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 03January 2021
Covid19 Worldwide Numbers Update – 02 January 2021
Remote Work Could Double Permanently
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity. However, How Many Americans Are Immune From COVID? Research into the coronavirus is running way behind the need for answers. Whilst we strive for herd immunity through vaccination – we lack an understanding of the general immunity people might have to the pandemic. This will affect the point herd immunity can be reached. The following articles discuss immunity: Can the Common Cold Help Protect You from COVID-19?, Does the Common Cold Protect You from COVID-19?, Immune cells for the common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? - A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>