Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 800 K to 900 K (consensus 863 K), and the Department of Labor reported 803,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 814,250 (reported last week as 812,500) to 818,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 72,444,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 20,363,675 down from last week’s 20,646,779
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 267 % higher than one year ago (versus the 268 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending December 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 803,000, a decrease of 89,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 7,000 from 885,000 to 892,000. The 4-week moving average was 818,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,750 from 812,500 to 814,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending December 12, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 12 was 5,337,000, a decrease of 170,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 5,508,000 to 5,507,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,538,000, a decrease of 188,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 5,726,250 to 5,726,000.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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