Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 0.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 4.5 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 9.3 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 190,519
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 1,696
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 115,351
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations improved, and deaths worsened
- More than 3 million people died in 2020 – the deadliest year in US history
- CDC says new UK strain of coronavirus could ‘already be in the United States’
- New Covid-19 variant could raise the bar for achieving herd immunity
- UK coronavirus variant may be more able to infect children: scientists
- BioNTech CEO confident vaccine will work on UK variant
- Ending the pandemic quicker by not vaccinating those who have had COVID and delaying the second dose
- US public school enrollment dips as virus disrupts education
- Don’t Cancel Christmas
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put a wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends. However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is all good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 5 % every week.
The above graph demonstrates in the last week hospitalization rate of growth has been relatively steady. We are now seeing the size of the impact of commingling and travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked over one month ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating.
This graph is currently demonstrating that the actions to contain the pandemic are working – but the rate of growth improvement is too slow as we are still seeing record numbers. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
CDC says new UK strain of coronavirus could ‘already be in the United States’ – The Hill
A new strain of the coronavirus spreading widely in the United Kingdom may already be circulating in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Tuesday.
The agency in a scientific brief said scientists are working to better understand how easily it might be transmitted, and they do not yet know why it has emerged in the U.K.
“Although a variant may predominate in a geographic area, that fact alone does not mean that the variant is more infectious,” the CDC said.
The CDC noted that even though the strain has not yet been detected in the U.S., it is likely already circulating.
“Ongoing travel between the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the high prevalence of this variant among current U.K. infections, increase the likelihood of importation. Given the small fraction of U.S. infections that have been sequenced, the variant could already be in the United States without having been detected,” the CDC said.
Viruses have only been sequenced from about 51,000 of the 17 million U.S. cases, the agency said.
New Covid-19 variant could raise the bar for achieving herd immunity, BioNTech CEO says – CNN
The new variant of coronavirus may require countries to vaccinate a higher proportion of their populations, raising the bar for achieving herd immunity, BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin said in a news conference Tuesday.
“(On) the topic of herd immunity there is always the discussion about 60 to 70%,” Sahin said. “But if the virus becomes more efficient at infecting people, we might need even a high vaccination rate to ensure that normal life can continue without interruption.”
“But 60 to 70% of vaccination rate will really dramatically change the situation,” Sahin added. “It is not that we have to deal with outbreaks if the virus becomes more effective but it still would provide a more or less normal life.”
US public school enrollment dips as virus disrupts education – AP
…. An analysis of data from 33 states obtained by Chalkbeat and The Associated Press shows that public K-12 enrollment this fall has dropped across those states by more than 500,000 students, or 2%, since the same time last year.
That is a significant shift considering that enrollment overall in those states has typically gone up by around half a percent in recent years. And the decline is only likely to become more pronounced, as several large states have yet to release information. Chalkbeat and AP surveyed all 50 states, but 17 have not released comparable enrollment numbers yet.
The data, which in many states is preliminary, offers the clearest picture yet of the pandemic’s devastating toll on public school enrollment — a decline that could eventually have dire consequences for school budgets that are based on headcounts. But even more alarming, educators say, is that some of the students who left may not be in school at all.
“I would like to hope that many of them are from homes where their parents have taken responsibility on their own to provide for their education,” said Pedro Noguera, the dean of the University of Southern California’s Rossier School of Education, adding that affluent families will have an easier time doing that. “My fear is that large numbers have simply gotten discouraged and given up.”
So far, many states have held off on making school budget cuts in the face of enrollment declines. But if enrollment doesn’t rise, funding will be hit.
BioNTech CEO confident vaccine will work on UK variant – AP
German pharmaceutical company BioNTech is confident that its coronavirus vaccine works against the new UK variant, but further studies are needed to be completely sure, its chief executive said Tuesday.
The variant, detected mainly in London and the southeast of England in recent weeks, has sparked concern worldwide because of signs that it may spread more easily. While there is no indication it causes more serious illness, numerous countries in Europe and beyond have restricted travel from the UK as a result.
“We don’t know at the moment if our vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant,” CEO Ugur Sahin told a news conference the day after the vaccine was approved for use in the European Union. “But scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variants.”
Sahin said that the proteins on the UK variant are 99% the same as on the prevailing strains, and therefore BioNTech has “scientific confidence” that its vaccine will be effective.
“But we will know it only if the experiment is done and we will need about two weeks from now to get the data,” he said. “The likelihood that our vaccine works … is relatively high.”
Should the vaccine need to be adjusted for the new variant the company could do so in about 6 weeks, Sahin said, though regulators might have to approve the changes before the shots can be used.
Elimination could be the optimal response strategy for covid-19 and other emerging pandemic diseases – BMJ
Michael Baker and colleagues argue that aiming for elimination of community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could offer important advantages over a suppression or mitigation strategy with ongoing transmission
The covid-19 pandemic might be remembered for the astonishingly rapid development of effective vaccines. But it should also be remembered as the first respiratory disease pandemic in which non-pharmaceutical interventions were widely used to eliminate transmission, including in large countries such as China. As the covid-19 pandemic continues to intensify across much of the globe, many countries are increasing their use of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as “lockdowns” to mitigate its harmful effects. Here we describe the potential benefits of using an elimination strategy to minimise the negative health and economic effects of the covid-19 pandemic. Pursuing this strategy will become more feasible when effective vaccines are widely available.
Strategic choices for pandemic responses
The typical approach of high income nations (such as those in North America and Europe) has been a “suppression strategy,” sometimes after initial use of a “mitigation strategy” (fig 1). The goal of suppression is to flatten the epidemic curve further than with mitigation, but still without expecting to end community transmission.1 These approaches are largely consistent with plans designed to mitigate or suppress pandemic influenza.
A Better Way to End the Pandemic Quickly – MedPage
There are two strategies that will allow us to end the epidemic in a more timely fashion. Both solutions require that, at least in the short run, we use the available supply of vaccine more efficiently. First, we should not use the limited supply of vaccine for people who do not need it.
There is convincing evidence that people who are known to have been infected already have immunity to SARS-CoV-2. As of December 21, there have been 77 million cases of COVID-19 reported worldwide. … the number of people who have had a prior infection may be greater than realized. The CDC estimates there are currently eight undiagnosed COVID-19 cases for each diagnosed case. By December 30, it is estimated that about 20 million people in the U.S. will have been infected with the coronavirus. That means that 160,000,000 Americans, or nearly half the population, will have immunity, dramatically limiting the need for vaccine.
…The second way to stretch the limited supply of vaccine is to delay the second dose. The current plan is to give two doses, 21 days apart for the Pfizer product and 30 days apart for Moderna’s. Alternatively, all available doses could be given immediately, doubling the number of people who could be reached.
[editor’s note: this post deserves a full read as we need to think through how we can optimize immunizing the country and reduce the hospitalizations and deaths]
More than 3 million people died in 2020 – the deadliest year in US history – USA Today
This is the deadliest year in U.S. history, with deaths expected to top 3 million for the first time – due mainly to the coronavirus pandemic.
Final mortality data for this year will not be available for months. But preliminary numbers suggest that the United States is on track to see more than 3.2 million deaths this year, or at least 400,000 more than in 2019.
U.S. deaths increase most years, so some annual rise in fatalities is expected. But the 2020 numbers amount to a jump of about 15%, and could go higher once all the deaths from this month are counted.
That would mark the largest single-year percentage leap since 1918, when tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers died in World War I and hundreds of thousands of Americans died in a flu pandemic. Deaths rose 46% that year, compared with 1917
UK coronavirus variant may be more able to infect children: scientists – Reuters
A new variant of the coronavirus spreading rapidly in Britain carries mutations that could mean children are as susceptible to becoming infected with it as adults – unlike previous strains, scientists said on Monday.
Briefing reporters on the latest findings, scientists from the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) who are tracking the variant said it had swiftly become the dominant strain in the south of Britain, and could soon do the same across the country.
“We now have high confidence that this variant does have a transmission advantage over other virus variants that are currently in the UK,” said Peter Horby, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at Oxford University and chair of NERVTAG.
“There is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children,” said Neil Ferguson, a professor and infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London and also a member of NERVTAG.
“We haven’t established any sort of causality on that, but we can see it in the data,” Ferguson said. “We will need to gather more data to see how it behaves going forward.”
[editor’s note: also read U.S. Child COVID Cases Sees ‘Highest Weekly Increase Since Pandemic Began’]
Post-pandemic traveling – National Geographic
A new poll shows that just over half of Americans (53%) say they will travel more to see loved ones they did not see during the pandemic compared to nearly half of Americans who say they will travel less because they are cautious of being exposed to other people after the pandemic is under control. That’s according to the survey of 2,200 adults by National Geographic and Morning Consult. The survey (highlights below) also found 1 in 3 respondents expect to travel more to make up for not traveling as much during the pandemic.
Don’t Cancel Christmas – MedPage
News of vaccines offers much-needed hope, and we share the excitement, but we still need to sustain a public health response over several months, which may be the darkest yet.
Pandemic fatigue and stress are high, and the need for social connections is as real as our thirst for water. Americans are a fiercely independent society, but the holidays mark an important time where we crave, seek, and need to spend time with others. We can celebrate this season by coming together in ways that minimize risk, but still satisfy the real and understandable desire of social connection.
[editor’s note: this think piece deserves a complete read]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
COVID isn’t stopping holiday travel to Mexico
U.S. could require negative COVID-19 tests for passengers from Britain
South Korea Tightens Restrictions During Holiday Period
Vatican OKs Receiving COVID-19 Vaccines, Even If Research Involved Fetal Tissue
Two cardinals test positive for coronavirus at Vatican: reports
Antarctica reports first COVID-19 cases
South Korea banning private gatherings of five or more people
New COVID-19 strain spreads to Italy, Denmark, Netherlands
French Bill Could Limit Public Transportation For Unvaccinated People
Europe Told To Lift Flight and Train Travel Ban on U.K. Travelers
Germany extends ban on UK – We won’t let Britons in as Merkel fears new variant strain
France begins to allow some travel from Britain as the E.U. urges countries to lift bans.
North Korea Still Claims No Coronavirus Infections Ahead of Regime Event
Spain approves legislation bringing some rent relief to stricken bars and restaurants.
France fast-tracks citizenship for frontline workers.
Taiwan records its first locally transmitted case since April.
For now, the U.S. government won’t impose Covid-19 screenings for passengers traveling from the United Kingdom after a highly infectious new coronavirus variant was discovered there, Reuters reported, citing people briefed on the decision.
Covid-19: Almost 3,000 lorries stuck in Kent as UK and France aim to restart freight
Army deployed to drive ambulances in Wales
In the Congo rainforest, the doctor who discovered Ebola warns of deadly viruses yet to come
Indian state of Maharashtra imposes night curfew
Thailand seafood market cluster grows to more 1,000 cases
Taiwan reports first local Covid-19 case in more than 250 days
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Congress approves $900B COVID relief bill, sending to Trump
Dogs ease pandemic isolation for nursing home residents
San Francisco Drug Overdose Deaths Far Outpace City’s COVID-19 Death Count
Covid Spurs Families to Shun Nursing Homes, a Shift That Appears Long Lasting
With New Covid-19 Strain 70% More Transmissible, Nations Rush to Contain Spread From UK
Americans Question Safety, Fairness of Anti-COVID-19 Vaccine
COVID-19 vaccines: the pandemic will not end overnight
“You’re No Better Than Socialist Dems” – Rand Paul Slams COVID-Bill-Backing Republicans
Most Americans could begin receiving checks of up to $600 next week as part of the $900 billion coronavirus relief package that President Trump is expected to sign today.
Some states lag in vaccinating highest-risk groups
Relief may be too late for Black, Latino landlords
Farm company fined $2M after two workers die of COVID
When frontline healthcare workers at a Rio Grande Valley, Texas hospital turned down their chance at a COVID vaccine, the hospital offered the surplus to other medical workers in the region, but a local sheriff’s deputy and state lawmaker took advantage too.
A majority of Americans think the Biden administration should mandate mask wearing, require people to get tested if they feel sick, ban gatherings of more than 10 people and temporarily close nonessential businesses, according to a survey conducted by STAT and The Harris Poll.
Air travel over the weekend surpassed Thanksgiving numbers and broke the pandemic era weekend mark, with more than 1 million passengers screened each day Friday through Sunday, despite CDC warnings against holiday travel.
Despite the pandemic, more than two dozen college football bowl games will still be played as scheduled (out of a typical 43), including the First Responder Bowl and Cure Bowl.
Airport screeners charged with identifying sick international travelers early during the pandemic were left in their positions even after dozens were infected with COVID-19, as the Trump administration did not want to raise public fears of the virus.
S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster Tests Positive For The Coronavirus
Fauci, Azar receive COVID-19 vaccine
Republican club’s indoor holiday party in Queens goes viral for conga line
Democrats say more COVID-19 relief needed after current measure becomes law
California Desperately Searches for More Nurses and Doctors
California Could See 100,000 Hospitalizations Within a Month
Dr. Birx to Retire After Family Gets ‘Dragged Into’ Thanksgiving Criticism
NFL Quarterback Dwayne Haskins Apologizes for Maskless Strip Club Visit
Tennessee Mayor Who Resisted Mask Mandate Now Has COVID
$600 Second Stimulus Checks Still Aren’t Enough for Most Americans
A study finds that pulse oximeters are less reliable when used on Black patients.
Key West is facing a legal challenge to its 10 p.m. New Year’s weekend curfew.
You’ll get a paper stimulus check if you don’t have direct deposit with the IRS
Mask-wearing alone, without social distancing, may not be enough to prevent the coronavirus from spreading, according to new research published Tuesday in the journal Physics of Fluids.
U.S. consumer confidence dropped for a second straight month in December as softness in the labor market offset optimism over the rolling out of a Covid vaccine, Reuters reports.
A new online dashboard hosted by Johns Hopkins University shows how many vaccines have been administered in each state, according to publicly available data.
- So far this morning, there have been at least 4,624,325 vaccine doses delivered across the US.
- Of those, 614,117 doses have been administered according to the CDC.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Is A Mini March Upheaval Lurking?
November 2020 Headline Existing Home Sales Stumbles Following Five Straight Months Of Sales Gains
December 2020 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Again Declined
December 2020 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improved
COVID-19 Stimulus Relief Package May Prevent Recession, Economists Say
Third Estimate 3Q2020 GDP Improves Marginally to 33.4%. Corporate Profits Improve.
Yellen’s “Arranged Marriage” To The Fed
How The U.S. Is Planning For A Covid-Christmas
Coronavirus New Variant Genomics Researcher Answers Key Questions
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? - A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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