Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 4.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.9 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 6.0 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at a record 249,709
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 2,814
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 114,751
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations marginally improved, and deaths improved.
- Chicago-area hospital halts COVID vaccinations after 4 workers have adverse reactions
- South Africa announces a new coronavirus variant
- The U.S. says employers can require workers to get the Covid-19 vaccine.
- Should people take more than one type of COVID-19 vaccine?
- Vaccination is not entire answer to COVID-19
- Most Allergic Reactions Not Enough to Nix COVID-19 Vaccine
- More than 900 companies that got PPP loans still laid off or furloughed 90K workers
- A Chinese official confirms that a million citizens received unproven homegrown vaccines
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put a wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends. However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day [although they are now in record territory and the raw numbers grow every day].
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is not good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 6 % every week.
The above graph demonstrates in the last week hospitalization rate of growth has been relatively steady. We are now seeing the size of the impact of commingling and travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked over one month ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating.
This graph is currently demonstrating that the actions to contain the pandemic are working – but the rate of growth improvement is too slow as we are still seeing record numbers. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Chicago-area hospital halts COVID vaccinations after 4 workers have adverse reactions – Fox
A north suburban hospital is temporarily pausing coronavirus vaccinations after four workers reported feeling adverse reactions.
Since Thursday, four team members at Advocate Condell Medical Center in Libertyville experienced reactions shortly after receiving the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination. Their symptoms included tingling and elevated heartrates, the hospital said in a statement.
The hospital also noted that the four team members represent fewer than 0.15% of the approximately 3,000 who have so far received vaccinations across Advocate Aurora Health.
Three of the team members are now home and doing well, the hospital said. One employee is receiving additional treatment.
Out of an abundance of caution, the hospital said it is temporarily pausing vaccinations at Condell, which will allow them time to better understand what may have caused the reactions.
Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Authorized – MedPage
As expected, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for Moderna’s mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 late Friday, following the pattern laid down last week for Pfizer and BioNTech’s similar product.
On Thursday, an FDA advisory committee overwhelmingly backed the vaccine’s availability in a 20-0 vote, with one abstention, for adults 18 and older under an EUA. The Moderna vaccine is administered in two doses given 28 days apart.
FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn, MD, noted in a statement that these standards and the review process was the same used in reviewing the first vaccine, and included “input from independent scientific and public health experts as well as a thorough analysis of the data by the agency’s career staff.”
Results from the vaccine’s pivotal trial of more than 30,000 participants, indicated an overall efficacy of 94.1% (95% CI 89.3%-96.8%) for preventing clinical illness with confirmed infection. It was somewhat less effective in participants 65 and older, at 86.4% (95% CI 61.4%-95.5%).
Notably, though, efficacy against preventing asymptomatic infection was not addressed in the study.
As with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, flu-like systemic symptoms and injection-site pain were the most common adverse effects. Deaths were no more common in the vaccine arm than in those receiving placebo. Three cases of Bell’s palsy were noted in vaccine recipients versus one in the placebo group, too few to determine whether the risk was genuinely increased. No anaphylactic reactions were seen “with close temporal relation to the vaccine,” FDA staff said in summarizing the trial results.
However, in the advisory committee meeting, both FDA staff and Moderna said they are keeping closer tabs on severe allergic reactions. FDA staff said they are coordinating with Pfizer to revise fact sheets to warn about risk of severe allergic reactions for the vaccine and will do the same for Moderna.
Unlike the rival product, though, Moderna’s vaccine is not yet authorized for people younger than 18. The company began dosing adolescents earlier this month in a new trial with participants as young as 12.
The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is expected to meet Saturday to discuss the vaccine and vote on whether or not to recommend it for use in adults.
Moderna said Dec. 11 that it planned to deliver 20 million doses to the U.S. government by the end of December, under its contract with Operation Warp Speed (OWS), the federal program on COVID vaccines and therapeutics. OWS officials said on Thursday that 5.9 million doses would be available this coming week following an EUA. Moderna is committed to ship a total of 200 million doses to the U.S. through June 2021.
South Africa announces a new coronavirus variant. – New York Times
South African scientists and health officials announced on Friday the discovery of a new lineage of the coronavirus that has quickly come to dominate samples of virus tested in the country.
Scientists are examining this particular variant closely because it includes several changes in the part of the virus that allows it to attach to human cells, which is a key target for antibody therapies and vaccines.
The variant, named 501.V2, has also been associated in a preliminary analysis with faster spread and a higher load of virus found in swabs. It has not yet been linked to any difference in disease severity, and the findings have not yet been reviewed by other scientists or published in a journal.
“There is reason for concern that we have a virus that seems to be spreading rapidly,” Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, co-chair of the country’s ministerial advisory committee on Covid-19, said at a national news conference. He emphasized that public behavior was a major factor in driving the uptick in cases.
Vaccination is not entire answer to COVID-19 – The Hill
As the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is now being shipped out, and with Moderna’s mRNA vaccine about to achieve Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, Americans begin to breathe easier believing that vaccination is the answer to our prayers, an end to the COVID-19 nightmare.
Such confidence is misplaced. Vaccination is part of the answer but not the complete solution.
The goal of vaccination is to make all Americans immune to the virus. This is impossible for two reasons. First, there is vaccine efficacy. The most optimistic, early reports suggest 94 percent effectiveness. Even if everyone were vaccinated, 6 percent or 19.8 million Americans would remain susceptible, i.e., could become infected.
A second reason we cannot achieve anything close to 100 percent immunity is that many will not accept vaccination. A report showed 9 to 20 percent of those surveyed, depending on the country, would refuse vaccination but is likely to be large. If 40 percent remain susceptible, we may not develop herd immunity.
… A better solution involves a three-pronged approach. (1) Offer vaccination to all willing recipients so they can eventually develop some amount of artificial (medical) herd immunity. (2) Stop the lockdowns, closures and distancing. Allow Americans to return to work, play and prayer. Allow the virus to spread in the very low risk general population, so we can develop natural herd immunity. (3) Until we have achieved full protection by herd immunity, offer the high-risk population strict quarantine as well as vaccination.
The three-pronged approach requires no one to admit error. Simply change our stance to give our people and our nation the best and quickest chance to stop the pandemic and to recover from the self-imposed devastation.
Should people take more than one type of COVID-19 vaccine? – National Geographic
THE DAY WILL come when everyone who wants a COVID-19 vaccine will be able to get one. Then people might wonder about a question that once seemed far-fetched: Should I get a second just to be safe?
As the pandemic rolls on, that actually might be an option, as more vaccines make their way through the approval pipeline in the coming months. On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized emergency use of a vaccine by Moderna—just a week after it granted similar authorization for one by Pfizer and BioNTech.
More than 200 COVID-19 vaccines are in development worldwide that involve eight different technology platforms, from innovative ones made of genetic material, such as DNA or messenger RNA, to classic varieties built from inactivated versions of the coronavirus. The question is whether taking more than one type will improve your immunity and offer longer-lasting protection.
So far, double-dipping with vaccines is mostly a thought experiment. The current limited supply makes accessing two different COVID-19 vaccines unlikely unless a person sneaks into multiple clinical trials or tricks the authorized providers. And it’s unknown if health insurers would pay for more than one vaccine. But some scientists are intrigued by the possibility.
… in theory, here’s how dual protection from COVID-19 vaccines would work: When you receive a vaccination, you introduce pieces of the virus that can’t make you sick—but are enough to activate an immune response.
… What’s unknown is whether you’d induce an even stronger response with a different form of the coronavirus vaccine. In immunology, the concept is called a “heterologous prime-boost,” and some studies suggest that it might be a more effective way to design vaccine regimens, especially for challenging diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV.
The U.S. says employers can require workers to get the Covid-19 vaccine. – New York Times
Employers can require workers to get a Covid-19 vaccine and bar them from the workplace if they refuse, the federal government said in guidelines issued this week.
Public health experts see employers as playing an important role in vaccinating enough people to reach herd immunity and get a handle on a pandemic that has killed more than 300,000 Americans. Widespread coronavirus vaccinations would keep people from dying, restart the economy and usher a return to some form of normalcy, experts say.
Employers had been waiting for guidance from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the agency that enforces laws against workplace discrimination, because requiring employees be tested for the coronavirus touches on thorny medical and privacy issues covered by the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990.
The guidance, issued on Wednesday, confirmed what employment lawyers had expected.
Businesses and employers are uniquely positioned to require large numbers of Americans who otherwise would not receive a vaccination to do so because their employment depends on it.
35% in U.S. Could Lose Their Home Over Next Two Months, Census Report Says – Newsweek
Over one-third of American adults could face eviction or home foreclosure amid the COVID-19 pandemic during the next two months, according to new data from a U.S. Census Bureau survey.
The latest data from the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, taken between November 25 and December 7, found that 35.3 percent of U.S. adults are “living in households not current on rent or mortgage where eviction or foreclosure in the next two months is either very likely or somewhat likely.”
The survey found that residents of Washington, D.C. are the most likely to face eviction or foreclosure, with 67.3 percent of adults living in households where the prospect is at least somewhat likely. States with a majority of adults also likely to lose their homes include South Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia and Oregon.
Most Allergic Reactions Not Enough to Nix COVID-19 Vaccine – MedPage
While criteria for contraindication to COVID-19 mRNA vaccines are narrow, more observation or possibly delayed vaccination may be necessary in those with a history of severe allergic reactions, CDC staff said on a call with clinicians on Friday.
The only individuals who should not receive mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, such as the recently authorized Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and Moderna’s similar product, are those with a history of severe allergic reaction, including anaphylaxis, to components of the vaccine. For example, CDC staff highlighted polyethylene glycol, which is often used in laxatives.
However, those with a history of severe allergic reaction to another vaccine or an injectable therapy may receive the vaccine, but with precautions.
Given recent publicity surrounding anaphylactic reactions to the Pfizer vaccine, CDC staff discussed an algorithm for the triage of individuals presenting for mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.
A risk assessment and potential deferral of vaccination applies only to those with a history of these severe vaccine-related allergies or severe allergies to other injectable therapies. However, the following groups may proceed with vaccination:
- Individuals with a history of food, pet, insect, venom, environmental, latex, or other allergies unrelated to vaccines or injectable therapies
- History of allergy to oral medications
- Non-serious allergy to vaccines or injectables
- Family history of anaphylaxis
- History of anaphylaxis not related to vaccines or injectable therapy
CDC clinical guidance recommends a 30-minute observation period for those with a history of severe allergic reaction, including anaphylaxis, due to any cause, and a 15-minute period for those with an allergic reaction, but not anaphylaxis.
More than 900 companies that got PPP loans still laid off or furloughed 90K workers – The Hill
More than 900 companies that received more than a combined $1.8 billion in coronavirus relief loans through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) still laid off or furloughed about 90,000 workers, an analysis from the Center for Public Integrity reveals.
Public Integrity noted that it’s unclear what the money was spent on, but businesses that don’t rehire their workers may have to pay back the loan plus 1 percent interest. The center also pointed out that they could be charged with fraud if the money was spent on rent, payroll, utilities or mortgage interest, per the conditions of PPP.
The Small Business Administration told The Hill that it does not comment on third-party analyses of small business data.
The analysis comes as Congress scrambles to finalize the details of a $900 billion coronavirus relief package, which is expected to include money for another round of PPP loans.
PPP was part of the $2 trillion CARES Act that President Trump signed into law in March.
A Chinese official confirms that a million citizens received unproven homegrown vaccines. – New York Times
More than a million doses of untested Covid-19 vaccines have so far been administered in China to people most at risk of contracting the coronavirus, officials said on Saturday, weeks before a travel rush begins ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Even as governments in Europe, North America and elsewhere approve vaccines, China is still awaiting the results of clinical trials for its unproven homegrown candidates. In the meantime, the government has worked outside traditional testing protocol to inoculate government workers, teachers and hospital workers with three homegrown varieties.
Two of those vaccine candidates are made by Sinopharm; a third is made by Sinovac.
While experts have warned that the untested vaccines could pose safety hazards, Chinese officials said Saturday that so far, there had been no adverse reactions. More than 60,000 people who received the vaccines have traveled to high-risk areas overseas and have not come down with a serious infection, Zheng Zhongwei, a top official at China’s National Health Commission, told reporters in Beijing on Saturday.
“Research shows that there are no serious safety hazards,” Mr. Zheng said, speaking about the overseas trials.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
[Brazilian President] Bolsonaro Says COVID Vaccine Could Cause Humans to Turn Into ‘Crocodiles’Emmanuel Macron says Covid-19 symptoms have slowed him down and warns the French to remain vigilant.
Merkel praises BioNTech scientists for their vaccine work
Swissmedic grants authorisation for the first COVID-19 vaccine in Switzerland
China Plans to Vaccinate 50 Million by Early February
How India plans to vaccinate 300 million people against Covid-19
Third wave of Covid-19 under control but don’t be complacent, warns Delhi CM Kejriwal
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Moderna vaccine ‘being packed and loaded today’
Maryland, Virginia To Send Extra COVID-19 Vaccine To D.C., Tripling Its Allotment
Stanford Apologizes After Vaccine Allocation Leaves Out Nearly All Medical Residents
COVID-19 Relief Deal Stalled As Trump Signs 2-Day Stopgap Bill To Avoid Shutdown
FEMA to reimburse California hotels used to protect vulnerable populations during pandemic
Michigan to reopen high schools, indoor entertainment amid stabilizing coronavirus rates
Minnesota lawmaker dies after having COVID
COVID-19 Case Fatality Doubled in Heart Transplant Patients
Tocilizumab Reduces Odds of Ventilation or Death in Mostly Non-White COVID-19 Patients
Johnson & Johnson Hopes to Offer COVID Vaccine in February
Arizona Anti-Maskers Parade Through Wal-Mart and Target Stores
California counts the dead by the hour as its I.C.U.s fill up.
Contact tracing is underway after a possible Covid-19-related death on a United flight.
Another prisoner on death row tests positive amid an outbreak at a federal prison in Indiana.
Christmas tree sales are way up this ‘very strange year’ — and prices are too
HHS releases sweeping new report on U.S. Covid outbreak in move toward transparency
In California, wealthy patients are offering top dollar to cut the line for a Covid-19 vaccine
Many undocumented immigrants fear getting vaccine
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
2020 Track Record: Covid-19, Shortest Recession, Global Recovery
How Governments Can Create A Green, Job-rich Global Recovery
Infographic Of The Day: Tracking COVID-19 Vaccines Around The World
International Statistic Of The Year: Race For A COVID-19 Vaccine
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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