Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 7.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 21.5 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 9.2 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at a record 217,664
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at a record 2,879 [yesterday’s number revised down]
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 100,667
- The 7-day rolling average rate of Growth of the Pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations unchanged, and deaths worsened [note that there is usually under-reporting over holiday periods and over-reporting for days after the holiday ends – and now we are seeing a reversal of trends]
- Moderna COVID-19 Vax Produced Immune Responses for 4 Months
- Why Government Stimulus Sometimes Looks like It Revives the Economy
- A blood test showing the effectiveness of a vaccine on monkeys has the potential to speed up trials
- Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles
- Can We Finally Stop Talking About “Natural” COVID-19 Herd Immunity?
- NIH Guidelines Shrink Scope of Remdesivir Use in COVID-19
- Philadelphia Priest Dies After Participating In Moderna COVID Vaccine Trial
- COVID-19 Fuels Surge in Overdose-Related Cardiac Arrests
- Germany concerned about potential attacks on mass vaccination centers
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance.
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus1.htm’); ?>
Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line) For Week ending 14NOV2020
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Seven Day Rolling Average Rate of growth Trends for pandemic new cases worsened, hospitalizations worsened, and deaths worsened
Too many headlines are telling you the pandemic is out of control. Anyone with analytical abilities knows this is not true. For this to be true, the rate of growth needs to continue to rise.
No doubt, the pandemic is elevated and we must take steps to minimize our exposure to the virus.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked over one month ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating.
This graph is currently demonstrating that the recent actions to contain the pandemic are beginning to bite – but have now been impacted by Thanksgiving. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
NIH Guidelines Shrink Scope of Remdesivir Use in COVID-19 – Medscape
Updated National Institutes of Health guidelines narrowed the scope of recommended use for remdesivir (Veklury) in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, and the quality of evidence backing the drug’s use also took a hit.
In a revision to its therapeutic management guidelines released on Thursday, the NIH no longer recommends remdesivir with dexamethasone as an option for hospitalized COVID-19 patients who require mechanical ventilation or ECMO, recommending only dexamethasone instead.
For patients who are hospitalized and require supplemental oxygen, remdesivir is recommended for patients who require “minimal supplemental oxygen,” with dexamethasone and remdesivir recommended for patients who require “increasing amounts” of supplemental oxygen. The rating of recommendations for remdesivir also dropped from A (strong) to B (moderate).
Previously, remdesivir was recommended for hospitalized patients requiring supplemental oxygen, with dexamethasone only recommended in this population if remdesivir could not be used. The agency didn’t specify what prompted the new skepticism about the drug.
For hospitalized patients who do not require supplemental oxygen, NIH still says there is “insufficient data” to recommend for or against the use of remdesivir.
Why Government Stimulus Sometimes Looks like It Revives the Economy – Wall Street Window
Once an economy falls into an economic slump and the level of unemployment begins to rise most commentators are of the view that it is the duty of the government and the central bank to step in to counter the rise in unemployment. Some commentators are of the view that the lowering of unemployment can be achieved without any cost given that the unemployed individuals are idle. According to Paul Krugman,
If you put 100,000 Americans to work right now digging ditches, it is not as if you are taking those 100,000 workers away from other good things they might be doing. You are putting them to work when they would have been doing nothing.
But how will this “lowering'”of unemployment be funded? Who is going to pay for this? It seems that Krugman and other commentators are of the view that funding can be easily generated by the central bank by means of printing presses.
But, contrary to Krugman and other commentators, funding is not about money as such but about real savings, which is the amount of consumer goods produced less the consumption of these goods by their owners.
Real savings sustain producers in various stages of production. When a baker trades his saved loaves of bread for potatoes, he in fact provides a means of sustenance to the potato farmer. Equally, the potato farmer provides a means of sustenance, his saved potatoes, to the baker.
In order to maintain their lives and well-being what people require is final goods and services and not money as such, which is just a medium of exchange. Money only helps to facilitate trade among producers—it does not generate any real stuff. Paraphrasing Jean-Baptiste Say, Mises wrote,
Commodities, says Say, are ultimately paid for not by money, but by other commodities. Money is merely the commonly used medium of exchange; it plays only an intermediary role. What the seller wants ultimately to receive in exchange for the commodities sold is other commodities.
[editor’s note: hard to summarize and needs a full read]
Philadelphia Priest Dies After Participating In Moderna COVID Vaccine Trial – ZeroHedge
As millions of elderly Americans prepare to take COVID-19 vaccines that, according to numerous reports, can elicit some pretty serious post-2nd dose side-effects for a day or so, LifeSiteNews has reported that a Ukrainian Greek-Catholic priest died at his PA home after participating in Moderna’s vaccine trial.
The cause of death isn’t yet known, and it’s unclear whether his participation in the trial for the new mRNA vaccine is connected to the death.
John Fields recently participated in the trials of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine after receiving an email from the University of Pennsylvania at the end of August asking if he wished to “participate in the third and final phase” of the vaccine trial.
He was reportedly approached because of his age, since he was in the age bracket the study team “deemed the higher risk group for the COVID-19 virus.” The first injection he received was on Aug. 31, with the second on Oct. 1.
Notably, the priest reported no serious symptoms after the second dose.
“I think of the researchers, who in only several months, as part of Operation Warp Speed, collectively used their knowledge and wisdom from Almighty God to achieve this medical milestone,” he had said. “I may be able [to] contribute in some small way to the development of an effective vaccine that would help stop this worldwide COVID-19 pandemic and the fear.”
Before jumping to conclusions, it’s worth noting that another priest suggested that Father Fields might have had a heart attack. But some organizations have raised questions about the rate of “serious” injury in the high-risk group of Moderna trial volunteers, as was disclosed with the latest round of ‘Phase 3’ trial data.
Three of the 15 human guinea pigs in the high-dose cohort – 250MG – reportedly suffered a “serious adverse event” within 43 days of receiving Moderna’s jab.
Pfizer Slashed Its Original Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout Target After Supply-Chain Obstacles – Wall Street Journal
When Pfizer Inc. said last month it expects to ship half the Covid-19 vaccines it had originally planned for this year, the decision highlighted the challenges drug makers face in rapidly building supply chains to meet the high demand.
“Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected,” a company spokeswoman said. “And it’s important to highlight that the outcome of the clinical trial was somewhat later than the initial projection.”Pfizer still expects to roll out more than a billion doses in 2021 as originally planned.
Pfizer and Germany-based partner BioNTech SE had hoped to roll out 100 million vaccines world-wide by the end of this year, a plan that has now been reduced to 50 million. The U.K. on Wednesday granted emergency-use authorization for the vaccine, becoming the first Western country to start administering doses.
… Pfizer had its 100-million dose goal in place until mid-November, when it became clear the supply-chain hurdles were too great for the end-of-the-year timeline.
Can We Finally Stop Talking About “Natural” COVID-19 Herd Immunity? – Slate
This week, Scott Atlas resigned from his controversial role as key pandemic situation adviser to President Donald Trump. During his tenure at the White House, Atlas—who has no background in epidemiology, infectious disease, immunology, or virology—loudly resisted mask science and argued that we are faced with a choice between the economy and public health. Atlas also promoted the idea that the solution to the coronavirus pandemic is to do nothing while massive numbers of people get sick so we can achieve herd immunity.
As an epidemiologist whose very specific area of expertise is herd immunity, I was glad when I saw that he had resigned. Perhaps now I can stop trying to explain to people why achieving herd immunity through massive infection is not a solution to the pandemic. But probably not, since Rand Paul and other politicians are still out there promoting these ideas. So one last time, please hear me: “Natural” herd immunity is a horrible, dangerous idea that would not accomplish what its promoters promise.
Getting to herd immunity is the goal—it’s the goal of a vaccination program. But reaching herd immunity by letting everyone get sick is the opposite of a solution; it is the problem. It’s doing nothing amid a crisis and calling it a plan. It’s buying into a fiction in which there are only two options: the health of our economy and pandemic control. In reality, we can’t have one without the other.
Herd immunity is what happens when so many people are immune that a virus cannot find any more susceptible hosts, so the number of new cases dwindles. Just how many people is “so many” is an open question, but most scientists agree that for COVID-19, it’s at least 60 percent—assuming no little pockets of society where far fewer people have immunity.
That means in the United States alone, we would need about 200 million people to be COVID-immune before we start to close in on the goal of herd immunity. There are two ways to become immune: either get sick or get vaccinated. It follows that there are, in theory, two ways to get a population to herd immunity: either let lots of people get sick or have lots of people vaccinated.
… If we kept up the staggering pace that the United States experienced for the month of November—140,000 confirmed cases a day, and many more assumed unconfirmed—it would take another 186 days to reach wonderland. I know November felt like half a year, but can you imagine if the plan was to go on like that for another six months? Before you say that this seems pretty reasonable, be sure to check with your nearest hospital-based health care provider. This pace is killing them. And frankly, six months is optimistic. If there are fewer than four unconfirmed cases for every one confirmed, then it will take longer, perhaps much longer.
[editor’s note: this post deserves a full read. Please note that there is controversy over the percentage of the population which needs to be immune for herd immunity to work]
Moderna COVID-19 Vax Produced Immune Responses for 4 Months – MedPage
Antibody responses to Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273, remained strong for almost 4 months following vaccination, data from a phase I trial indicated.
Serum neutralizing antibodies were detected in 34 healthy adult volunteers at day 119 following the first dose, and 90 days following the second dose, reported Alicia Widge, MD, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) in Bethesda, Maryland, and colleagues.
Moreover, both binding and neutralizing geometric mean titers exceeded those in 41 healthy controls who were recovering from COVID-19, the authors wrote in a Correspondence piece in the New England Journal of Medicine.
“Although correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans are not yet established, these results show […] mRNA-1273 has the potential to provide durable humoral immunity,” the researchers wrote.
Importantly, they also found no new adverse events considered to be related to the vaccine after day 57.
[editor’s note: The question of how long any vaccine will provide immunity is an open question]
COVID-19 International Evidence: Some Notable Puzzles – Federal Reserve Bank Of Atlanta
This article uses international evidence to argue that we still have limited knowledge about the efficacy of widely used preventive actions, such as social distancing and face masks, in containing the spread of the novel COVID-19 virus. I document three puzzles. One, Peru enacted unprecedented lockdowns early in the pandemic, which led to a record contraction in economic activity. The country’s residents also adopted near-universal face mask usage. None of these actions, however, prevented Peru from experiencing the world’s highest per capita mortality rate from the virus. Second, southeast Asian countries practically did not register cases despite being closely interconnected to the source of the virus and adopting rather lax viruscontainment policies. Third, sub-Saharan African countries were largely spared from the virus, despite being considered very high-risk countries at the onset of the pandemic. I also discuss some emerging hypotheses that could explain these puzzles. Rather than rebuffing proven preventive actions like social distancing and face mask usage, this article highlights the limited knowledge we still have on this novel disease.
Key findings:
- Considerable evidence shows that masks and social distancing reduce the spread of COVID-19, but my review of international evidence indicates other factors may be important as well. In this article, I highlight some puzzles observed in the international data.
- Peru enacted very strict lockdowns and near-universal face mask usage early in the pandemic, but it could not avoid record deaths.
- Many countries in southeast Asia recorded practically no COVID-19 cases, despite their proximity to the virus source and limited social distancing. Sub-Saharan Africa did remarkably well in containing the disease despite grim projections at the onset of the pandemic.
Germany concerned about potential attacks on mass vaccination centers – The Hill
Germany indicated on Friday it is concerned about potential attacks on its mass coronavirus vaccination centers.
The country is setting up six mass vaccination cites in Berlin ahead of the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) approval of a vaccine, The Associated Press reports.
The EMA said on Tuesday that Pfizer and German company BioNTech filed for conditional approval of their vaccine candidate. The U.K. approved the vaccine for emergency use on Wednesday.
Albrecht Broemme, who was tasked with setting up the agency, said security details still need to be resolved, according to the AP. He plans to have “intense conversations” with police and security firms about protecting the centers, though he acknowledged that no concrete threat has been made.
“With the centers it’s indeed possible that people opposed to vaccination or others willing to use violence might say ‘Let’s set this on fire because we think vaccinations are stupid,'” Broemme reportedly said.
Markus Lammert, a spokesman for Germany’s Interior Ministry, told reporters that security agencies were alerted to the issue, but he is not aware of any “concrete threat scenario.”
COVID-19 Fuels Surge in Overdose-Related Cardiac Arrests – Medscape
There has been a sharp increase in overdose-related cardiac arrests in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic, a new analysis shows.
Overall rates in 2020 were elevated above the baseline from 2018 and 2019 by about 50%, the data show.
“Our results suggest that overdoses may be strongly on the rise in 2020, and efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic have not been effective at reducing overdoses,” Joseph Friedman, MPH, MD/PhD student, Medical Scientist Training Program, University of California, Los Angeles, told Medscape Medical News.
“We need to invest heavily in substance use treatment, harm reduction, and the structural drivers of overdose as core elements of the COVID-19 response,” said Friedman, who coauthored the study with UCLA colleague David Schriger, MD, MPH, and Leo Beletsky, JD, MPH, Northeastern University School of Law, Boston, Massachusetts.
The study was published as a research letter December 3 in JAMA Psychiatry.
A blood test showing the effectiveness of a vaccine on monkeys has the potential to speed up trials. – New York Times
A new study in monkeys suggests that a blood test could predict the effectiveness of a coronavirus vaccine — and perhaps speed up the clinical trials needed to get a working vaccine to billions of people around the world.
The study, published on Friday in Nature, reveals telltale blood markers that predict whether a monkey’s immune system is prepared to wipe out incoming coronaviruses.
The finding raises hope that researchers will be able to look for the same markers in people who get vaccines in clinical trials. If the markers are strong enough, they could reveal if the vaccines protect against the coronavirus. And researchers would no longer have to wait for some trial volunteers to get Covid, as they do now.
“It will pave the way for a much more rapid advancement of the Covid vaccine field,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, a vaccine expert at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston and one of the researchers behind the new study.
The new monkey study offers a ray of hope for the next wave of vaccines, dozens of which are in development, suggesting that they could be tested not against the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna — which reported have extraordinarily high efficacy rates — but using a measurement known as a “correlate of protection.”
COVID-19 Is Now America’s Leading Cause of Death – Mother Jones
COVID-19 surpassed heart disease as the leading cause of death in the United States this week, according to a report released Friday by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
An average of 1,660 people died of COVID in the US each day in the past week, according to IHME. As Dr. Sanjay Gupta explained on CNN, this exceeded the average number of Americans (10,000 to 11,000) who die each week of cardiac issues. In all, more than 11,600 died from COVID in the past seven days.
Fifteen percent of people in the US have been infected, the report notes. Last week, daily reported cases averaged 165,200, up from 145,900 the week before.
Less Than a Third of Americans Will Definitely Get the COVID Vaccine: Poll – Newsweek
Less than a third of Americans say they will definitely get the COVID-19 vaccine when it is rolled out.
According to a recent study conducted by the Pew Research Center, only 29 percent of respondents said they would get the jab if a vaccine was available today.
Conversely, 21 percent of U.S. adults said they do not intend to get vaccinated and are “pretty certain” more information will not change their mind.
Another 18 percent said it was possible they would decide to get vaccinated once others started getting a vaccine and more information became available.
In total, nearly four-in-ten of those surveyed (39 percent) said they definitely or probably would not get a coronavirus vaccine.
Of the 60 percent who registered interest in getting the vaccine, 31 percent said they would probably take it and 29 percent said they were certain.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Looking ahead to Christmas, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced a broad travel ban that would even block movement between adjacent towns.
U.K. Will Start Immunizing People Against COVID-19 On Tuesday, Officials Say
South Korea Considers Tighter Coronavirus Restrictions As Cases Spike
India COVID Vaccine Could be Ready ‘Within Weeks,’ Says PM Modi
Unmasked Hospital Potluck May Have Led to 112 COVID Infections, 12 Deaths
China ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ Begins as Shots to Be Rolled Out in Turkey, LatAm
When the second wave is deadlier than the first: How could Europeans allow this to happen?
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Former U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy and Obama administration official Jeff Zients will likely be leading President-elect Joe Biden’s COVID-response team.
Optimism growing for COVID relief bill as pressure builds
Nevada sets record for COVID deaths in a day
Las Vegas hotels are closed during the week. Blame the lack of business travelers
Uber asks US CDC to consider ride-hail drivers essential for COVID-19 vaccine distribution
Nursing Homes and Covid Fatalities: The Empirical Relationship
Anthony Fauci, MD, walked back criticism of Britain’s quick vaccine authorization.
CDC Director Robert Redfield, MD, suggested he wasn’t happy that folks over 70 in multigenerational households aren’t included.
With the surge continuing unabated, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) warned of reinstating three-week long stay-at-home orders on a regional basis when ICU capacity runs low.
After refusing to enforce restrictions, a California sheriff tested positive for COVID-19.
How’s $1,500 for getting a vaccine sound?
A 102-year-old New York woman, who lived through the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, has now beaten COVID-19 twice.
Warner Bros. To Stream All Its Films In 2021
Cheesecake Factory settles with SEC over misleading COVID-19 disclosures
Thanksgiving vehicle travel down just 5 percent from 2019 despite health experts’ warnings
Fauci says America may still need masks after Biden’s first 100 days
Study finds social distancing compliance sank to low in October, ahead of coronavirus surge
Photo of Rows of Hospital iPads Used for End of Life Visits Goes Viral
California Sheriffs Tell Newsom They Will Not Enforce Stay-at-Home Order
Texas Health Department Orders All Dallas Bars to Close Amid COVID Spike
State Dept. Planning Holiday Parties That Violate D.C.’s COVID Rules
Fauci will return to center stage in a Biden administration.
A coronavirus outbreak hobbles an unemployment center in Oregon.
Health experts press for new focus on Covid survivors with long-term symptoms.
Pelosi voices optimism on stimulus after McConnell agrees to compromise on a year-end spending bill.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quietly revised its estimates for the disproportionately deadly toll that Covid-19 is taking on communities of color, now reflecting a much higher burden than previously acknowledged.
Friday’s jobs report showed a weakening U.S. labor market, and for the hard-hit hospitality industry, job growth was relatively flat. The sector, which faced the steepest losses in the spring, remains down by 3.4 million jobs compared to February levels.
The restaurant industry lost 17,400 jobs in November, marking the first month since April that food and drinking places have seen employment shrink.
Boeing is lowering its already reduced production target for its 787 Dreamliners to five a month next year from a goal of six as international travel continues to suffer, says CFO Greg Smith at an industry conference. The company was producing 10 a month.
“Where the federal government has authority, I’m going to issue a standing order that, in federal buildings, you have to be masked, and, in interstate transportation, you must be masked on airplanes and buses, etc.,” Biden told CNN in a wide-ranging interview.
Scaling up mask use to 95% can save 66,000 lives by April 1
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
27 November 2020 ECRI’s WLI Continues To Improve
October 2020 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Improvement Continues
October 2020 Trade Data Continues To Show Modest Recovery
November 2020 BLS Jobs Situation – Employment Grew 245,000 But Still Down 7,847,000 Year-to-Date
Rail Week Ending 28 November 2020 – November Up 3.1% Year-over-Year
November 2020 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Remain Modestly In Expansion
Infographic Of The Day: What Lies Ahead – 2021 Economic Projections And The Year In Review
The Pandemic’s Surprising And Misleading Effect On U.S. Wages
A Cultural Shift To Meet The Coronavirus Challenge
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- It seems a vaccine will be available before the end of the year – the question is how effective it will be in the general population AND how long immunity will last.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only two drugs (remdesivir and Regeneron) are approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
