Written by Steven Hansen
Week 48 of 2020 shows same week total rail traffic (from the same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Total rail traffic has been mostly in contraction for over one year – and now is slowly recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.
Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data
Total rail traffic has two components – carloads and intermodal (containers or trailers on rail cars). Container exports from China are now recovering, container exports from the U.S. remain deep in contraction. This week again intermodal continued in expansion year-over-year and continues on a strengthening trendline.
Carloads are in contraction year-over-year this week.
But overall because of the strength of intermodal, rail is on an improving trendline.
We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain, and petroleum) contracted 4.2 % year-over-year for this week. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors improved from -5.8 % to -5.1 %
When rail contracts, it suggests a slowing of the economy.
The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):
.
Intermodal transport growth was weak and in contraction in 2019.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of the profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] ).
| Percent current rolling average change from the rolling average of one year ago | Trend Direction | |
| 4 week rolling average | +3.0 % | improving |
| 13 week rolling average | +1.1 % | improving |
| 52 week rolling average | -8.4 % | improving |
A summary for this week from the AAR:
U.S. railroads originated 900,194 carloads in November 2020, down 5.8 percent, or 55,198 carloads, from November 2019. U.S. railroads also odown 7,819 carloads or 10.3 percent.
“U.S. rail traffic continued to make up lost ground in November,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “Excluding coal, total U.S. rail criginated 1,136,695 containers and trailers in November 2020, up 11.5 percent, or 116,915 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in November 2020 were 2,036,889, up 3.1 percent, or 61,717 carloads and intermodal units from November 2019.
In November 2020, nine of the 20 carload commodity categories tracked by the AAR each month saw carload gains compared with November 2019. These included: grain, up 20,026 carloads or 23.1 percent; chemicals, up 4,153 carloads or 3.4 percent; and grain mill products, up 1,821 carloads or 5.3 percent. Commodities that saw declines in November 2020 from November 2019 included: coal, down 49,251 carloads or 16.9 percent; petroleum & petroleum products, down 10,227 carloads or 19.9 percent; and crushed stone, sand & gravel, arloads are now very close to where they were before the pandemic hit with grain volumes approaching record highs due to soybean exports. Meanwhile, U.S. intermodal volumes have seen near record highs the past couple months due to both import volumes and internet purchasing by consumers. Railroads join everyone else in hoping that the recent surge in COVID-19 infection rates across the country recedes quickly and that our nation can return to a path of improved personal and economic health.”
Excluding coal, carloads were down 5,947 carloads, or 0.9 percent, in November 2020 from November 2019. Excluding coal and grain, carloads were down 25,973 carloads, or 4.5 percent.
Total U.S. carload traffic for the first 11 months of 2020 was 10,380,769 carloads, down 13.8 percent, or 1,663,263 carloads, from the same period last year; and 12,340,929 intermodal units, down 3.1 percent, or 400,753 containers and trailers, from last year.
Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 48 weeks of 2020 was 22,721,698 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 8.3 percent compared to last year.
Week Ending November 28, 2020
Total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 452,792 carloads and intermodal units, up 3.7 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending November 28 were 206,288 carloads, down 4.1 percent compared with the same week in 2019, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 246,504 containers and trailers, up 11.2 percent compared to 2019.
Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2019. They were grain, up 4,690 carloads, to 25,099; chemicals, up 898 carloads, to 28,628; and farm products excl. grain, and food, up 293 carloads, to 14,519. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2019 included coal, down 7,973 carloads, to 59,775; petroleum and petroleum products, down 2,910 carloads, to 9,071; and nonmetallic minerals, down 1,770 carloads, to 22,173.
The middle row in the table below removes coal, grain, and petroleum from the changes in the railcar counts as these commodities are not economically intuitive.
| This Week | Carloads | Intermodal | Total |
| This week Year-over-Year | -4.1 % | +11.2 % | +3.7 % |
| — Ignoring coal, grain & petroleum | -4.2 % | ||
| Year Cumulative to Date | -13.8 % | -3.1 % | -8.3 % |
[click on the graph below to enlarge]
z rail1.png
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
![[click on the graph below to enlarge]](/images/z%20rail1.png?v=36){kind=link}