Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 755 K to 800 K (consensus 780 K), and the Department of Labor reported 712,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 750,750 (reported last week as 748,500) to 739,500
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 69,974,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 20,163,477
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 251 % higher than one year ago (versus the 241 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending November 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 75,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 9,000 from 778,000 to 787,000. The 4-week moving average was 739,500, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,250 from 748,500 to 750,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent for the week ending November 21, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 4.1 to 4.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 21 was 5,520,000, a decrease of 569,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 18,000 from 6,071,000 to 6,089,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,194,250, a decrease of 425,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 4,500 from 6,615,250 to 6,619,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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