Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 7.6 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 9.6 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are at an elevated 157,901
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at an elevated 1,172
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 96,039
- The 7-day rolling average rate of Growth of the Pandemic shows new cases improved, hospitalizations marginally worsened, and deaths improved [note that there is usually under-reporting over holiday periods and over-reporting for days after the holiday ends – so I would wait to mid-week to validate there was really an improvement]
- Vaccine side effects ‘significantly noticeable’ in up to 15% of recipients
- How coronavirus infects the BRAIN: Virus inhaled through the nose gets trapped in nasal mucus and hijacks the olfactory nerve
- Can Employers Make Vaccination Mandatory?
- New review of national test data suggests little impact on children’s reading growth and has only somewhat slowed gains in math
- Will There Be Another Stimulus Check? Bipartisan Legislators Introduce Plan
- Manhattan office space for rent reaches highest level since 2003
- US billionaires who got richer during COVID-19 pandemic
- Coronavirus Was In U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Previously Known
- Thousands of Doctors’ Offices Buckle Under Financial Stress
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line) For Week ending 14NOV2020
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Seven Day Rolling Average Rate of growth of pandemic new cases improved, hospitalizations marginally worsened, and deaths improved
Too many headlines are telling you the pandemic is out of control. Anyone with analytical abilities knows this is not true. For this to be true, the rate of growth needs to continue to rise.
No doubt, the pandemic is elevated and we must take steps to minimize our exposure to the virus.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked over one month ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating.
This graph demonstrates that the recent actions to contain the pandemic are beginning to bite. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Fauci Says COVID Won’t End Unless ‘Overwhelming Majority’ Take Vaccine – Newsweek
The COVID-19 pandemic won’t end until the “overwhelming majority” of people in the U.S. get vaccinated, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Monday.
With a rollout of safe treatments for the respiratory illness forecast to begin by the end of this year, the U.S. needs between 75 and 85 percent of the population to take a vaccine for the protection to be truly effective, the country’s top infectious disease expert said in a video interview with billionaire Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg.
“I would like to see the overwhelming majority of the country vaccinated before we get to the end of the second quarter [of 2021],” he told Zuckerberg.
“So when we get into the fall season the children can feel safe going back to school, teachers can feel safe they are not going to get infected, we get back to the economy being robust, restaurants can open… that’s what I would like to see.”
But the top scientist warned: “You are not going to see it unless the overwhelming majority of people get vaccinated. So in that sense I would like to see the reluctant people get vaccinated sooner rather than later. If they want to wait a month or two, that’s OK, but I don’t want them to wait six to eight to nine months.”
US billionaires who got richer during COVID-19 pandemic – USA Today
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression. In the early months of the pandemic, as local businesses across the country closed, tens of millions of Americans lost their job. Now, more than half a year later, more than 11 million Americans remain unemployed and many shops and restaurants will never reopen. Here is a look at American businesses that might not survive coronavirus.
The recession ushered in by the novel coronavirus has not meant economic catastrophe for everyone, however. In fact, in the months since the virus reached the United States, many of the nation’s wealthiest citizens have actually profited handsomely. Over a roughly seven-month period starting in mid-March – a week after President Donald Trump declared a national emergency – America’s 614 billionaires grew their net worth by a collective $931 billion.
Using data from Forbes, 24/7 Wall St. identified the American billionaires who got richer during COVID-19. We ranked the 30 billionaires whose monetary wealth grew the most from March 18, 2020 to Oct. 13, 2020. We only reviewed changes in net worth for American citizens who were considered billionaires as of April 7, 2020.
… The vast majority of people on this list are high-profile executives or founders and investors at publicly traded companies – and much of their wealth is invested in the company with which they are associated. The top 5
- Jeff Bezos
- Elon Musk
- Mark Zuckerberg
- Daniel Gilbert
- MacKenzie Scott
In fall of 2020, students in grades 3-8 performed similarly in reading to same-grade students in fall 2019, but about 5 to 10 percentile points lower in math.
In almost all grades, most students made some learning gains in both reading and math since the COVID-19 pandemic started. However, gains in math were lower on average in fall 2020 than prior years, resulting in more students falling behind relative to their prior standing.
This fall, students scored better than NWEA’s projections in reading, while math scores were in line with our projections for grades 4-6 and slightly above our projections in grades 7-8.
Some differences by racial/ethnic groups are emerging in the fall 2020 data, but it is too early to draw definitive conclusions from these initial results. Student groups especially vulnerable to the impacts of the pandemic were more likely to be missing from our data. Thus, we have an incomplete understanding of how achievement this fall may differ across student groups and may be underestimating the impacts of COVID-19.
[editor’s note: this summary was taken directly from the study – now look at the spin in the following post]
Students falling behind in math during pandemic – AP
A disproportionately large number of poor and minority students were not in schools for assessments this fall, complicating efforts to measure the pandemic’s effects on some of the most vulnerable students, a not-for-profit company that administers standardized testing said Tuesday.
Overall, NWEA’s fall assessments showed elementary and middle school students have fallen measurably behind in math, while most appear to be progressing at a normal pace in reading since schools were forced to abruptly close in March and pickup online.
The analysis of data from nearly 4.4 million U.S. students in grades 3-8 represents one of the first significant measures of the pandemic’s impacts on learning.
But researchers at NWEA, whose MAP Growth assessments are meant to measure student proficiency, caution they may be underestimating the effects on minority and economically disadvantaged groups. Those students made up a significant portion of the roughly 1 in 4 students who tested in 2019 but were missing from 2020 testing.
NWEA said they may have opted out of the assessments, which were given in-person and remotely, because they lacked reliable technology or stopped going to school.
“Given we’ve also seen school district reports of higher levels of absenteeism in many different school districts, this is something to really be concerned about,” researcher Megan Kuhfeld said on a call with reporters.
Vaccine side effects ‘significantly noticeable’ in up to 15% of recipients, says Slaoui – CNBC
Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines are safe, with only 10% to 15% of volunteers reporting side effects that were “significantly noticeable,” President Donald Trump’s coronavirus vaccine czar, Dr. Moncef Slaoui, told the Washington Post.
People have reported redness and pain at the injection site as well as fever, chills, muscle aches and headaches, he said, adding most people have no noticeable side effects. His comments came as states prepare to distribute a Covid-19 vaccine in as little as two weeks.
Last month, doctors told a CDC advisory group that U.S. officials should talk more about the potential side effects of the vaccines so the public knows what to expect and aren’t scared away from getting a second dose. Both companies’ vaccines require two doses about a month apart to achieve maximum effectiveness.
Coronavirus Was In U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Previously Known – NPR
The coronavirus was present in the U.S. weeks earlier than scientists and public health officials previously thought, and before cases in China were publicly identified, according to a new government study published Monday.
The virus and the illness that it causes, COVID-19, were first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, but it wasn’t until about Jan. 20 that the first confirmed COVID-19 case, from a traveler returning from China, was found in the U.S.
However, new findings published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases suggest that the coronavirus, known officially as SARS-CoV-2, had infected people in the U.S. even earlier.
“SARS-CoV-2 infections may have been present in the U.S. in December 2019, earlier than previously recognized,” the authors said.
This discovery adds to evidence that the virus was quietly spreading around the world before health officials and the public were aware, disrupting previous thinking of how the illness first emerged and how it has since evolved. It also shows the virus’s presence in U.S. communities likely didn’t start with the first case identified case in January.
Researchers came to this conclusion after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from residents in nine states. They found evidence of coronavirus antibodies in 106 out of 7,389 blood donations. The CDC analyzed the blood collected between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17.
Manhattan office space for rent reaches highest level since 2003 – The Hill
The amount of Manhattan office space available for rent has reached its highest level since 2003.
As of November, only 790,000 square feet was leased in Manhattan, an 80 percent decrease from this time last year, reports Bloomberg. This enormous increase in available space has caused the average asking price for rents to drop more than 3 percent, leaving at them at the lowest they’ve been since June 2018.
In October it was reported that the median rent for Manhattan had dipped below $3,000 for the first time in almost a decade. The data came from a report made by New York City real estate firm StreetEasy.
The same report found that Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens had all experienced year-over-year rent declines for the first time since 2010.
Will There Be Another Stimulus Check? Bipartisan Legislators Introduce Plan – Newsweek
Congress only has weeks to pass another relief package before the end of the year and a new proposal from a group of bipartisan lawmakers would bring relief to people, but not in the form of direct payments.
On Tuesday, Democratic and Republican senators and representatives, as well as independent Senator Angus King, announced a plan for another round of relief. Their $908 billion package includes state and local aid, expanded unemployment insurance, support for small businesses and help for those with student loans.
“Everything that’s going to come to a halt in December because of the timing is not going to happen,” Senator Joe Manchin said. “We intend to move this forward after months of failure to act … We know what’s necessary now in a timely fashion.”
[editor’s note: it appears this compromise package does not include another round of stimulus checks. In additon, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rejected a proposed bipartisan virus relief package, pushing instead for what he calls a “targeted relief bill.” Finally, No $1,200 stimulus checks. How new stimulus bill may not help hurting Americans]
- Scientists in Germany performed autopsies of 33 patients who died of Covid-19
- Found evidence of the coronavirus in nasal mucus as well as in brain tissue
- Experts believe the virus infects the olfactory nerve after reaching the mucus
- From here it may go cell-to-cell infecting different neurons, researchers believe
Thousands of Doctors’ Offices Buckle Under Financial Stress – Medscape
Although no one tracks medical closures, recent research suggests they number in the thousands. A survey by the Physicians Foundation estimated that 8% of all physician practices nationally — around 16,000 — have closed under the stress of the pandemic. That survey didn’t break them down by type, but another from the Virginia-based Larry A. Green Center and the Primary Care Collaborative found in late September that 7% of primary care practices were unsure they could stay open past December without financial assistance.
And many more teeter on the economic brink, experts say.
“The last few years have been difficult for primary care practices, especially independent ones,” said Dr. Karen Joynt Maddox, co-director of the Center for Health Economics and Policy at Washington University in St. Louis. “Putting on top of that COVID, that’s in many cases the proverbial straw. These practices are not operating with huge margins. They’re just getting by.”
When offices close, experts said, the biggest losers are patients, who may skip preventive care or regular appointments that help keep chronic diseases such as diabetes under control.
“This is especially poignant in the rural areas. There aren’t any good choices. What happens is people end up getting care in the emergency room,” said Dr. Michael LeFevre, head of the family and community medicine department at the University of Missouri and a practicing physician in Columbia. “If anything, what this pandemic has done is put a big spotlight on what was already a big crack in our health care system.”
People with asthma less likely to contract COVID-19 – The Hill
People with asthma may be at reduced risk of contracting the coronavirus, according to research published last week in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology.
Israeli researchers tested 37,469 subjects, 6 percent of whom were positive for the virus. Of the subjects positive for the virus, 6.75 percent had asthma, compared to 9.62 percent of those who were negative for COVID-19, according to the study results.
Eugene Merzon, one of the research leaders, told the Jerusalem Post that there were at least three possible explanations, including that asthma is associated with lower levels of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors, which is a mechanism for the virus to infect cells.
Merzon, head of the Department of Managed Care in Leumit Health Services, said it was also possible that asthmatics, knowing they are at risk for more severe cases of the virus, may simply take more precautions against contracting it.
The third option he offered is that the inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) people frequently use to treat asthma may reduce the risk of the virus. He cited studies showing ICS may cut replication of coronavirus.
With COVID-19 Vaccine On the Way, Can Employers Make Vaccination Mandatory? – Newsweek
According to the Kaiser Health Foundation, about 49 percent of all Americans get their health insurance from their employer. That raises an important question regarding COVID-19: Can private employers require workers to be vaccinated?
In a letter to an Ohio congresswoman inquiring on behalf of a constituent, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration said, “Although OSHA does not specifically require employees to take the vaccines, an employer may do so.”
Stephanie Taub, an attorney with First Liberty, a law firm defending religious freedom based in Plano, Texas, said requiring workers to get the COVID-19 vaccine shouldn’t be a problem as long as the employer complies with applicable federal, state and local laws.
“Exemptions have to be granted under Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act,” she told Newsweek.
“I think it’s possible some employers will require vaccinations,” she said. “They should consult with an attorney and respect an employee’s right to object on religious grounds.”
Under the Americans With Disabilities Act, vaccinations and screenings are considered medical procedures, and requiring the coronavirus vaccine therefore must be job related. As a result, healthcare providers, nursing home employees, food preparation workers and others that work in high-risk environments or with high-risk populations can be required to receive certain vaccinations.
Similar rules are now in force for other types of shots and widely accepted.
For example, many school districts require parents to present proof of vaccination against measles, mumps and rubella before enrolling their child in kindergarten. The University of California at Berkeley requires students to show proof of vaccination against tuberculosis before attending class.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
China gave COVID-19 vaccine candidate to North Korea’s Kim
Turkey toughens curfew measures amid coronavirus surge
Hamilton tests positive for COVID-19, will miss Sakhir F1 GP
Gaza’s Hamas Leader Gets Coronavirus As Palestinian Territories’ Cases Surge
76 nuns test positive for COVID-19 at convent in Germany
Suspected North Korean Hackers Targeted COVID Vaccine Maker AstraZeneca: Sources
U.K. Enters Three-Tier Lockdown Despite Conservative Revolt
Police Break up “Orgy” In Brussels Bar, Arrest 25 Men—Including Politician
Hundreds of COVID-Infected Mink Could Have Escaped Danish Fur Farms
China Reported Only Two-Thirds of COVID Cases at Pandemic’s Start: Report
English Tequila Bar Registers as a Church in Effort to Bypass U.K. COVID
France has kept schools open without driving up infections
Pfizer vaccine submitted for E.U. approval, which could come by Dec. 29.
Dutch make masks mandatory as new coronavirus cases taper
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Scott Atlas resigns as Trump’s coronavirus adviser
Pence tells governors coronavirus vaccine distribution could begin in two weeks
As the virus resurges, mental health woes batter France
An advisory panel of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention meets today to vote on who should get the first doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
A modified stay-at-home order begins Tuesday in Anchorage, the largest city in Alaska.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom warned a stay-at-home order could soon be implemented in counties with widespread transmission.
Florida public schools will remain open in 2021 and families will continue to have the option to keep students at home during the COVID-19 pandemic
New York City’s public schools will start offering in-person classes Dec. 7
California Hospitalizations From COVID-19 Surging; ICUs May Be Overwhelmed In Weeks
New York City urges adults over 65 to stay at home amid surge in COVID-19 cases
White House moves forward with holiday parties during pandemic
Bipartisan, bicameral group unveils $908 billion coronavirus proposal
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine Admits State Doesn’t Have Money to Distribute Vaccine
Trump’s Coronavirus Special Adviser Resigns, Wishes Biden’s Team ‘The Best’
COVID-Ravaged Match-Up Between Ravens and Steelers Moved — Again
Florida on Track to Host 2 Huge Football Games Amid 1 Million COVID Cases
The C.D.C. discusses who should get vaccinated first, but the decision will fall to states.
Moncef Slaoui, chief science advisor for the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, said that the entire U.S. population could be vaccinated against the coronavirus by June, and there could be enough doses to immunize the rest of the nearly 8 billion people in the world by early to mid-2022.
Florida becomes 3rd state in US to surpass 1 million COVID-19 cases
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
November 2020 ISM and Markit Manufacturing Surveys Show Similar Manufacturing Growth
October 2020 Construction Spending Again Improves
3Q2020 Household Debt Shows Consumer Debt Back on the Rise after Second Quarter Dip
Data From 45 Countries Show Containing COVID Vs Saving The Economy Is A False Dichotomy
Dangers Of A Sedentary COVID-19 Lockdown: Inactivity Can Take A Toll On Health In Just Two Weeks
How 2020 Thanksgiving Passenger Numbers Compare
Thousands Of Doctors’ Offices Buckle Under Financial Stress Of COVID
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 30 November 2020 fell 46 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- It seems a vaccine will be available before the end of the year – the question is how effective it will be in the general population AND how long immunity will last.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only two drugs (remdesivir and Regeneron) are approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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