Of the four Federal Reserve districts which have released their November manufacturing surveys – all are in expansion.
Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Important subindices new orders significantly declined (remains in expansion) and unfilled orders improved (remains in expansion). This should be considered a little worse than last month.
The expectations from Econoday were 7.0 to 18.8 (consensus 10.7) for the general activity index and the reported value was 12.0. From the Dallas Fed:
Texas factory activity expanded in November for the sixth consecutive month, though at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 25.5 to 7.2, indicating a deceleration in output growth.
Other measures of manufacturing activity also point to slower growth this month, as the indexes remained positive but came in below last month’s readings. The new orders index dropped 13 points to 7.2, and the growth rate of orders index fell five points to 9.7. The capacity utilization index dropped from 23.0 to 6.9, and the shipments index fell from 21.9 to 13.7.
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in November, though the indexes retreated from their October levels. The general business activity index remained positive but fell from 19.8 to 12.0. Similarly, the company outlook index fell from 17.8 to 11.0. Uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks continued to rise, though the index declined from 11.0 to 7.2.
Labor market measures indicated stronger growth in employment and work hours. The employment index ticked up three points to 11.7, suggesting a slight pickup in hiring. Twenty-five percent of firms noted net hiring, while 13 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index moved up from 3.7 to 9.7.
Prices and wages continued to increase in November. The raw materials prices index climbed nearly six points to 35.0, a reading well above the series average. The finished goods prices and wages and benefits indexes edged down to 4.7 and 13.6, respectively. Both readings are slightly below their respective average readings.
Expectations regarding future activity remained positive in November, though several key indexes moved down from their October readings. The future production index fell six points to 40.8, and the future general business activity index edged down three points to 25.8. Other measures of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory.
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
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