November 2020 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Declined

Of the three regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

Market expectations from Econoday were +17 to +29 (consensus +25). The actual survey value was 15 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Reports from Fifth District manufacturers were broadly positive in November, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite fell from 29 in October to 15 in November, but remained firmly in expansionary territory, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — had positive readings. Manufacturers reported improvement in local business conditions, but the spending indexes softened somewhat. Survey participants were optimistic about the future, expecting growth to continue in the coming months.

Survey results suggested that employment and wages grew for many contacts in November, but businesses struggled to find workers with the necessary skills. Contacts expected this difficulty to continue, and for employment and wages to grow, in the next six months.

The average growth rates of both prices paid and prices received by survey respondents increased in November. Average growth of prices paid continued to outpace that of prices received, and firms expected price growth to continue in the near future.

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Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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