Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 845 K to 915 K (consensus 868 K), and the Department of Labor reported 787,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 832,750 (reported last week as 866,250) to 811,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Note from the BLS concerning California:
California has completed its pause in processing of initial claims and has resumed reporting actual unemployment insurance claims data based on their weekly claims activity. This News Release reflects actual counts for California for the current week and revisions to the two prior weeks. The revised reports for California are available at: https:// oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 65,455,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 23,150,427
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 276 % higher than one year ago (versus the 285 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending October 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 56,000 from 898,000 to 842,000. The 4-week moving average was 811,250, a decrease of 21,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 33,500 from 866,250 to 832,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.7 percent for the week ending October 10, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.4 from 6.8 to 6.4 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 10 was 8,373,000, a decrease of 1,024,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 621,000 from 10,018,000 to 9,397,000. The 4-week moving average was 10,085,750, a decrease of 1,093,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 302,500 from 11,481,750 to 11,179,250.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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