Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 6.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.2 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Global daily new coronavirus cases are at a record high
- Dr. Scott Gottlieb is warning that the United States is a week away from seeing a rapid acceleration of Covid-19 cases
- Coronavirus-related hospitalizations increasing in 37 states
- U.K. Preparing COVID-19 Vaccine Trials That Deliberately Infect Study Subjects
- COVID Patients Have ‘Organ Abnormalities’ Months After Testing Positive
- Covid is accelerating across the globe as U.S. and Europe head into flu season
- Europe, North America Should Learn From Asia on COVID-19
- Key to Europe’s economic recovery: unlocking consumer spending
- Who Are the Scientists Behind the Great Barrington Declaration?
- A 14-year-old girl won a $25K prize for a discovery that could lead to a cure for Covid-19
- ‘Bad Math’: Airlines’ COVID Safety Analysis Challenged by Expert
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 20 October 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line) For Week ending 10OCT2020
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Coronavirus Statistics For 20 October 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 58,651 | 8,210,000 | 364,591 | 40,470,000 | 16.1% | 20.3% |
Deaths** | 459 | 220,133 | 4,410 | 1,120,000 | 10.4% | 19.7% |
Mortality Rate | 0.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 2.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.91* | 405.21* |
Source: EU CDC – The data insignificantly varies from the data produced by Johns Hopkins
* as of 16 Oct 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
CDC advises booting travelers who refuse to wear masks on planes, trains, buses, other transportation – USA Today
The Centers for Disease Control endorsed Monday what has already become a required practice around the country, recommending that anyone traveling on airlines, trains, subways, buses or other public transport wear a mask.
If passengers don’t comply, those who won’t put on masks should be ordered to get off when possible, the CDC says in its interim guidance on the issue. Airlines or other transportation providers should, “at the earliest opportunity, disembark any person who refuses to comply.”
The CDC’s “strong recommendation” could be a boost to airlines, ride-hailing drivers and others who have seen resistance by some passengers to rules requiring they wear masks while traveling in close proximity to strangers to ward off the spread of the coronavirus.
The only exceptions to not wearing a mask should be for those travelers who take them off while eating, drinking or taking medication; those who become incapacitated for any reason or can’t remove their masks by themselves; or when needed to show their identity, such as when traveling through a Transportation Security Administration checkpoint at an airport.
Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the Veterans Health Administration had a more than five times higher risk for in-hospital death and increased risk for 17 respiratory and nonrespiratory complications than did hospitalized patients with influenza. The risks for sepsis and respiratory, neurologic, and renal complications of COVID-19 were higher among non-Hispanic Black or African American and Hispanic patients than among non-Hispanic White patients. Compared with influenza, COVID-19 is associated with increased risk for most respiratory and nonrespiratory complications. Certain racial and ethnic minority groups are disproportionally affected by COVID-19.
Covid-19 likely to become as ‘endemic’ as annual flu virus – CNBC
Covid-19 is likely to become as “endemic” as the annual flu virus, the U.K.’s chief scientific advisor said.
“We can’t be certain, but I think it’s unlikely we will end up with a truly sterilizing vaccine, (that is) something that completely stops infection, and it’s likely this disease will circulate and be endemic, that’s my best assessment,” Patrick Vallance told the National Security Strategy Committee in London on Monday.
“Clearly as management becomes better, as you get vaccination which would decrease the chance of infection and the severity of disease … this then starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going,” he said.
A vaccine against the new coronavirus — and there are a handful in Phase 3 clinical trials, according to the World Health Organization — is not likely to eradicate the virus anyway, Vallance added
‘Bad Math’: Airlines’ COVID Safety Analysis Challenged by Expert – Medscape
A campaign by coronavirus-stricken aviation giants to persuade the world it’s safe to fly has been questioned by one of the scientists whose research it draws upon.
Dr David Freedman, a U.S. infectious diseases specialist, said he declined to take part in a recent presentation by global airline body IATA with planemakers Airbus, Boeing and Embraer that cited his work.
While he welcomed some industry findings as “encouraging”, Freedman said a key assertion about the improbability of catching COVID-19 on planes was based on “bad math”.
Airlines and planemakers are anxious to restart international travel, even as a second wave of infections and restrictions take hold in many countries.
The Oct. 8 media presentation listed in-flight infections reported in scientific studies or by IATA airlines, and compared the tally with total passenger journeys this year.
“With only 44 identified potential cases of flight-related transmission among 1.2 billion travellers, that’s one case for every 27 million,” IATA medical adviser Dr David Powell said in a news release, echoed in comments during the event.
… “They wanted me at that press conference to present the stuff, but honestly I objected to the title they had put on it,” the University of Alabama academic told Reuters.
“It was bad math. 1.2 billion passengers during 2020 is not a fair denominator because hardly anybody was tested. How do you know how many people really got infected?” he said. “The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”
Key to Europe’s economic recovery: unlocking consumer spending – The Conference Board
Strict COVID-19 lockdowns limited spending opportunities for households around the world earlier this year, including those in Europe. This lapse in consumption resulted in a surge in the Euro Area’s savings rate to a record high of 25 percent of gross disposable income in Q2 2020 (vs. 13 percent a year earlier). Since lockdowns have been lifted, however, savings rates have remained high. This is because half of Euro Area consumers are worried about their jobs—a legitimate concern as furlough schemes come to an end in a number of countries. Looking ahead, renewed mini-lockdowns throughout Europe in Q4 due to the surge in new COVID-19 cases, coupled with anxieties about joblessness, are likely to keep savings rates high. This, in turn, will continue to hinder consumer spending and potentially delay the European economic recovery.
UK taps Open Orphan to explore vaccine trials that infect volunteers with coronavirus – CNBC
[editor’s note: you may also want to read U.K. Preparing COVID-19 Vaccine Trials That Deliberately Infect Study Subjects ]
- In the U.K., the government has offered a contract to a company called Open Orphan to develop a Covid-19 human challenge study model.
- In this type of study, young, healthy people volunteer to get deliberately exposed to very low doses of the coronavirus.
- These studies are controversial but could help speed up the development of an effective vaccine.
This 14-year-old girl won a $25K prize for a discovery that could lead to a cure for Covid-19 – CNN
As scientists around the world race to find a treatment for the coronavirus, a young girl among them stands out.
Anika Chebrolu, a 14-year-old from Frisco, Texas, has just won the 2020 3M Young Scientist Challenge — and a $25,000 prize — for a discovery that could provide a potential therapy to Covid-19.
Anika’s winning invention uses in-silico methodology to discover a lead molecule that can selectively bind to the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
“The last two days, I saw that there is a lot of media hype about my project since it involves the SARS-CoV-2 virus and it reflects our collective hopes to end this pandemic as I, like everyone else, wish that we go back to our normal lives soon,” Anika told CNN.
… Initially, her goal was to use in-silico methods to identify a lead compound that could bind to a protein of the influenza virus.
“After spending so much time researching about pandemics, viruses and drug discovery, it was crazy to think that I was actually living through something like this,” Anika said.
“Because of the immense severity of the Covid-19 pandemic and the drastic impact it had made on the world in such a short time, I, with the help of my mentor, changed directions to target the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”
Who Are the Scientists Behind the Great Barrington Declaration? – MedPage
After the authors of a declaration promoting herd immunity spoke to White House officials last week, the scientific community immediately called into question the declaration as well as the scientists who wrote it.
The Great Barrington Declaration, a statement written by three public health experts from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford, encourages governments to lift lockdown restrictions on young and healthy people while focusing protection measures on the elderly. This would allow COVID-19 to spread in a population where it is less likely to be deadly, the authors state, encouraging widespread immunity that is not dependent on a vaccine.
Restrictions have caused other harms, including lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings, and deteriorating mental health, they argue.
After gaining some publicity, this strategy was strongly denounced by many in the scientific community. While it supposedly received 8,000 signatures from public health experts and doctors, news outlets later revealed that some of those signatures were fake.
The declaration was sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian, free-market think tank headquartered in western Massachusetts. The Institute is in a network of organizations funded by Charles Koch — a right-wing billionaire known for promoting climate change denial and opposing regulations on business.
While the scientists who wrote the declaration claim they represent both right- and left-wing politics, all have attempted to influence governments to end lockdowns since the start of the pandemic.
Coronavirus-related hospitalizations increasing in 37 states – The Hill
Coronavirus-related hospitalizations are on the rise in a majority of states, a CNBC analysis published Tuesday found.
Hospitalizations were rising by at least 5 percent in 37 states as of Sunday, the network found. It also found several states reached a record high for hospitalization averages, including Alaska, Iowa, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
By comparison, hospitalizations are only falling in the District of Columbia and Hawaii.
“We are clearly in the second wave in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and we really need to have more control of this infection at the community level,” Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the University of Toronto, told CNBC. “We know exactly what it’s like when health care systems are spread beyond capacity. We saw that in New York City. We saw that in Houston. We saw that in many other parts of the United States.”
Dr. Scott Gottlieb: U.S. about ‘a week away from a rapid acceleration’ of coronavirus cases – CNBC
Dr. Scott Gottlieb is warning that the United States is about “a week away from seeing a rapid acceleration in cases” of Covid-19 as the number of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations surge.
In an interview on CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” on Monday evening, the former FDA chief in the Trump administration explained that the country no longer has any pandemic backstops.
“The summer was a backstop, of sorts, to the spring surge, and we have no therapeutic backstop,” Gottlieb said. “The fall and winter season is when this coronavirus is going to want to spread.”
Echoing similar comments from Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Gottlieb said the holiday season and family gatherings are especially precarious for the spread of coronavirus because that’s when people let their guard down.
Europe, North America Should Learn From Asia on COVID-19: WHO Expert – Medscape
Europe and North America should follow the example of Asian states by persevering with anti-COVID measures and quarantining anyone who comes into contact with infected people, a World Health Organization (WHO) expert said on Monday.
The WHO’s Europe region, which includes Russia, has recorded up to 8,500 deaths in the past week – and half the countries have seen a 50 percent rise in cases, Mike Ryan, the body’s top emergency expert, told a news conference.
Over recent months, authorities in Australia, China, Japan and South Korea had reduced the spread by detecting cases, isolating them and quarantining contacts, he said.
Their populations had shown “higher levels of trust” in their governments who had kept up measures longer.
“In other words, they ran through the finish line and beyond and they kept running, because they knew the race wasn’t over, that finish line was false. Too many countries have put an imaginary finishing line and when they cross this may have decelerated some of their activities,” Ryan said.
“The countries in Asia, south Asia, the Western Pacific that have been successful to my mind have really continued to follow-through on those key activities,” he added.
COVID Patients Have ‘Organ Abnormalities’ Months After Testing Positive – Newsweek
The initial findings of a new study from Britain’s Oxford University found multiple organ abnormalities in COVID-19 patients months after they tested positive for the virus.
The research, led by Betty Raman, a doctor at Oxford’s Radcliffe Department of Medicine, looked at the long-term impacts of the virus in 58 patients who were hospitalized after being infected.
MRI scans showed tissue abnormalities in the lungs of 60 percent of patients, in the kidneys of 29 percent, in the hearts of 26 percent and in the livers of 10 percent. The scans also detected tissue changes in the brain, and patients demonstrated impaired cognitive performance.
Raman told Newsweek that these changes captured by MRIs were more pronounced in patients who suffered more severe cases of COVID-19 and therefore these abnormalities were more common in those with pre-existing conditions.
The study also found that more than half of these patients still experienced symptoms, such as breathlessness, fatigue, anxiety and depression, even months after being discharged from the hospital.
Two to three months after their initial infection, 64 percent of patients said they suffered persistent breathlessness and another 55 percent reported significant fatigue. Patients were also more likely to report a significant impairment in their quality of life compared to the controls.
Covid is accelerating across the globe as U.S. and Europe head into flu season – CNBC
The coronavirus pandemic is accelerating across the globe as U.S. cases climb and at least 10 other countries, half in Europe, report record highs in average daily new cases.
Argentina, Canada, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Russia, Spain, Ukraine and the United Kingdom all hit record highs in average daily new Covid-19 cases on Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. Figures are based on a weekly average to smooth out fluctuations in daily reporting. Iran, Russia and Ukraine each hit record highs for deaths, Hopkins data shows.
When adjusting for population, the number of new infections in Europe has now overtaken that in the United States, with Europe reporting 231 new Covid-19 cases per 1 million people, based on a seven-day average, compared with 177 new Covid-19 cases per 1 million people in the U.S. Overall, Europe, which includes 27 European Union countries and the UK, is seeing nearly 120,000 new cases per day, Hopkins data shows.
In the United States, cases are also accelerating. New daily U.S. cases, as a seven-day average, totaled 58,397 on Monday, almost 18% higher than last week’s levels, according to Hopkins data. Cases are growing by at least 5% in 35 states, with 16 states reporting record high averages in daily cases Monday, according to the data. The U.S. still has the worst outbreak in the world with more than 8.2 million cases.
China’s Covid success compared to Europe shows lockdowns are the first step, not a solution – CNN
As much of Europe stares down the barrel of renewed coronavirus lockdowns, and a potentially miserable — and deadly — winter to come, China is going from strength to strength.
On Monday, the country posted positive economic growth for the second quarter in a row, underlining how speedily the world’s second-largest economy has recovered. That comes in the wake of an apparently successful experiment with allowing mass domestic travel, as millions of people criss-crossed China for the Golden Week national holiday.
For many in Europe, China’s approach to the coronavirus is characterized by the initial draconian, 76-day lockdown seen in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where cases of the virus were first detected late last year.
But other parts of the country never saw such stringent restrictions, even during the early stages of the pandemic when similar lockdowns were introduced in cities throughout China.
China’s success in controlling the coronavirus is not so much a product of those early control measures — though these have been utilized effectively to halt regional flare-ups — but how the country handles things after people are allowed to move around again.
In particular, China’s ability to track and trace cases across the country whenever there is the suggestion of a new cluster of infections has enabled the government to respond quickly and bring local epidemics under control.
This has included a sophisticated color-sorted “health code” system to track people’s movements. A clear (green) bill of health and corresponding QR code is required to enter many businesses, ensuring that almost everyone has adopted the measure, making tracing in the instance of an outbreak easier.
These measures have allowed regional governments to lock down a specific area or conduct mass testing where necessary. This was most recently seen in the city of Qingdao in northeastern China, where more than 10 million people were tested in around a week, after 12 locally-transmitted cases were reported.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Chinese official says 60,000 vaccinated against COVID-19 without adverse reactions
Sweden’s COVID Strategist Wants to Ease Restrictions for Elderly
Ireland Becomes First EU Country to Re-Enter Full COVID Lockdown
The Growing Evidence that China’s Aggression has Backfired
India’s Modi calls for vigilance against the virus as the Hindu festival season approaches.
AstraZeneca U.S. COVID-19 vaccine trial may resume as soon as this week
India’s daily Covid-19 cases less than 50,000 for first time in 3 months
Hong Kong announces minor relaxation of social distancing measures after drop in cases
Coronavirus: Belgium facing ‘tsunami’ of new infections
Argentina tops 1 million virus cases
Australia Covid-19 quarantine blood-testing blunder prompts calls for hundreds to take HIV test
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The Government Accountability Office will investigate alleged political meddling at the CDC and FDA after Senate Democrats requested it.
A Wisconsin judge reinstated the governor’s order to restrict indoor gatherings, days after courts had blocked it.
The Infectious Diseases Society of America and the Ad Council are launching a new campaign amid the third wave: “Mask Up, America.”
Another survey shows the public, and particularly Black Americans, are growing less willing to get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as one is available.
States now have plans to distribute the vaccines but still don’t have the federal dollars needed to carry them out, state health officials complained.
In California, several large hospitals systems denied coronavirus transfers based on patients’ insurance status, putting profit over pandemic relief.
Air Travel High: TSA Screens 1 Million For 1st Time Since March
Melania Trump cancels campaign appearance over ‘lingering cough’
NIH chief: Trump has not met with White House COVID-19 task force in ‘quite some time’
Holiday survey finds shoppers plan to spend less, shop at fewer stores this year
Every resident of Kansas nursing home infected with COVID-19
CDC rolls out new guidance urging masks for passengers, workers on public transit
California plans to review coronavirus vaccine independently
U.S. Billionaires’ Net Worth Jumps as Working Families Suffer
Trump Now Says He’d Rather Go Bigger Than Nancy Pelosi’s Stimulus Bill
NFL Announces 8 Positive COVID-19 Tests Among Players in Latest Round of Testing
Isolation kills, especially seniors. Community spaces can be a vaccine for COVID loneliness.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Trucking Improves Month-over-Month
September 2020 Residential Building Growth Significantly Improves
Weathering The Storm: Who Can Access Credit In A Pandemic?
A Long, Uneven And Uncertain Ascent
Chinese Economy Rebounds, Still Trails Pre-Pandemic Growth
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 19 October 2020 Down 50 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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