Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 6.2 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;

• Total coronavirus cases globally now exceeds 40 million
• Dr. Anthony Fauci will see data from government-funded vaccine trials before the FDA does
• The Chinese Lockdown-And-Mask Model Failed. Now Its Proponents Need Scapegoats
• Masks made Czech Republic the envy of Europe. Now they’ve blown it
• Vaccine storage issues could leave 3 Billion people without access
• Sweden, Which Refused Lockdown During COVID First Wave, Imposes New Rules
• Is Lung Jelly in COVID-19 Hyaluronan, Opening Door for Treatment?
• Hospitalized COVID-19 patients can have ongoing symptoms for months -study
• Sewage From Toilet in Chinese City Infected Six People with Coronavirus in First Known Case of Its Kind
• After a reprieve, a wave of evictions expected across U.S.
• Russia shuns tough restrictions even as infections soar

The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.

My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.

The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.

The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 19 October 2020:

z coronavirus.png​

Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line) For Week ending 10OCT2020

source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Source: EU CDC – The data insignificantly varies from the data produced by Johns Hopkins

* as of 13 Oct 2020

** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number

*** red color indicates record number

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Hospitalized COVID-19 patients can have ongoing symptoms for months -study – Reuters

More than half of COVID-19 patients discharged from the hospital still experienced symptoms of breathlessness, fatigue, anxiety, and depression for two to three months after their initial infection, according to the findings of a small UK study.

The research, led by scientists at Britain’s Oxford University, looked at the long-term impact of COVID-19 in 58 patients hospitalized with the pandemic disease.

It found that some patients have abnormalities in multiple organs after being infected with the novel coronavirus and that persistent inflammation caused problems for some for months.

The study has not been peer-reviewed by other scientists but was published before review on the MedRxiv website.

“These findings underscore the need to further explore the physiological processes associated with COVID-19 and to develop a holistic, integrated model of clinical care for our patients after they have been discharged from hospital,” said Betty Raman, a doctor at Oxford’s Radcliffe Department of Medicine who co-led the research.

Is Lung Jelly in COVID-19 Hyaluronan, Opening Door for Treatment? – Medscape

The gel-like liquid that can form in the lungs of patients with severe COVID-19 infection appears to be glycosaminoglycan hyaluronan (HA), Swedish researchers have discovered in findings that could pave the way for novel therapies for the disease.

“We have for the first time demonstrated a striking presence of hyaluronan in alveolar spaces of the lungs in lethal cases of COVID-19,” say Urban Hellman, PhD, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden, and colleagues, in research published recently in the Journal of Biological Chemistry.

They studied lung samples obtained at autopsy from severe COVID-19 victims and compared these with lung tissue from people undergoing thoracic surgery. They found that the alveolar spaces in patients with COVID-19 were filled with exudate that stained heavily for HA, which disappeared when it was exposed to an enzyme that breaks down the polysaccharide.

“There are already therapies that either slow down the body’s production of this jelly or break down the jelly through an enzyme,” said Hellman in a press release from Umeå University.

The Chinese Lockdown-And-Mask Model Failed. Now Its Proponents Need Scapegoats – ZeroHedge

[editor’s note: this is a think piece and not provable fact – it is worth a full read. This article is a mixture of fact and fiction – especially the portion that mask-wearing was not effective. However, my purpose in publishing this piece is to think through lockdowns as lockdown are a double-edged sword which can inflict as much damage as they are trying to prevent. I see little evidence that lockdowns will prevent the eventual spread – but it does flatten the curve if the medical system becomes overwhelmed. So lockdowns are a tool to be used judicially. Hopefully, as this pandemic progresses, we will learn techniques that PROVABLY reduce the risk of being infected, novel therapies that significantly reduce the potential of being hospitalized, an immunization which works, and hospitalization methodology which significantly reduces the chances of death.]

Public health experts adopted China’s draconian lockdowns without knowing how well they really worked and in a country that, fortunately, lacks the power to truly enforce them.

China’s deceptiveness and lack of transparency meant that we did not know how well anything that the Communist dictatorship did to battle the virus that it spawned actually worked. Despite that, our public health experts, and those of most free countries, adopted the China Model.

We don’t know how well the China Model worked for the People’s Republic of China, but it failed in every free country that tried it. Lockdowns eventually gave way to reopenings and new waves of infection. This was always going to happen because not even the more socialist European countries have the police state or the compliant populations of a Communist dictatorship.

Desperate, the public health experts adopted China’s compulsive mask wearing, a cultural practice that predates the virus, as if wearing a few flimsy scraps of fiber would fix everything.

It hadn’t and it didn’t.

But by then the public health experts and the media that had touted them were moving fully into the scapegoat portion of the crisis. The China Model had failed, all that was left was shifting the blame to more conservative and traditional populations, and away from the cultural elites.

A New York Times headline captured the cynical broad spectrum cultural scapegoating with, “N.Y.C. Threatens Orthodox Jewish Areas on Virus, but Trump’s Impact Is Seen.”

The uncomfortable truth was that the lockdowns had failed economically, socially, and medically.

Even blue states and cities were no longer able to carry the impossible economic burden much longer. The Black Lives Matter riots and the onset of summer broke the #StayHome taboos, and medically, the lockdowns had been useless efforts to meet a fake crisis of hospital overflows.

America, like too many other countries, put the experts in charge and they failed. Miserably.

Democrats claimed that they were superior because they were “listening to the science”. They weren’t listening to the science, which is not an oracle and does not give interviews. Instead, they were obeying a class of officials, some of them whom weren’t even medical professionals, who impressed elected officials and the public with statistical sleight of hand. And little else.

The entire lockdown to testing to reopening pipeline that we adopted wholesale was a typical bureaucratic and corporate exercise, complete with the illusion of metrics and goals, that suffered from all the typical problems of bureaucracy, academia, and corporate culture.

The system that determines reopenings and closings is an echo chamber that measures its own functioning while having little to do with the real world. Testing has become a cargo cult exercise that confuses the map with the world, and the virus with the spreadsheet. It gamifies fighting the pandemic while dragging entire countries into an imaginary world based on its invented rules.

Masks made Czech Republic the envy of Europe. Now they’ve blown it – CNN

There are currently more new Covid-19 cases per million people recorded in the Czech Republic than in any other major country in the world. On Friday, more than 11,100 new cases were reported in a single day, a new record. In the first 17 days of October, more people have died of the virus in the Czech Republic than during the previous eight months of the epidemic combined.

The Czech Medical Chamber and the health minister have called on Czech doctors living abroad to return home to help fight the virus. Medical students and people with medical training have also been encouraged to come forward. More than 1,000 qualified nurses who’ve left the profession have offered to come back to help.

… It’s a stunning development. Less than two months ago, the Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis boasted his country was among the “best in Covid.” [Poland has had mandatory face mask mandate since March]

… Most Czechs obeyed the mask rule. The measure wasn’t particularly popular with the masses, but it was wildly effective in controlling the spread of the virus. And it made the country an outlier. “Some people from the WHO, for example, told us that this is nonsense. Many other countries around Czech Republic told us that wearing masks is nonsense. But the Czech people were doing well,” said microbiologist Dr. Omar Sery, who was also one of the early advocates for face masks.

… The Czech Republic’s first wave of infection peaked in late March at 408 cases in one day. The highest single-day death toll was just 18, in April. On June 30, the Czech Republic recorded no new Covid-19 deaths. That same day, an outdoor street party in Prague celebrated the end of the pandemic. Masks were not part of the dress code. Theaters reopened, indoor dining returned, people were allowed to travel abroad. Even Babis, the Prime Minister, went to Greece for a vacation.

In almost every way, the country had regained the normalcy that people in across Europe were craving. It wouldn’t last long.

“We didn’t see dead people, we didn’t see people with coronavirus in hospitals — the Czech people thought that this is nonsense and we don’t need to wear masks,” said Dr. Sery.

When the government lifted the strict mask mandate over the summer, most people left theirs at home. The virus was slowly starting to make a comeback. Even the health minister conceded his country’s victory lap was premature.

Sweden, Which Refused Lockdown During COVID First Wave, Imposes New Rules – Newsweek

Local officials will have the authority to direct residents to avoid certain public spaces including shopping centers, museums, libraries, swimming pools, gyms, other sports facilities, sports matches and concerts. Regional authorities will also have the power to tell residents to avoid public transport as well as visiting the elderly and others that fall within risk groups, according to the Telegraph.

The new measures, described by Bitte Brastad, the chief legal officer at Sweden’s public health agency, as “something in between regulations and recommendations,” do not come with fines for any violations.

Speaking to Newsweek, Marcus Carlsson, a mathematician and senior lecturer at Lund University who has been closely following the outbreak, said: “The authorities have certainly made a silent shift towards a strategy more in line with the rest of Europe.”

But Carlsson noted the latest new measures have not been “implemented in reality anywhere in Sweden, and even doctors in hospitals still walk around without masks (leaving vulnerable people too afraid to seek health care).

Vaccine storage issues could leave 3B people without access – AP

Poor people around the world who were among the hardest hit by the virus pandemic are also likely to be the last to recover from it.

The vaccine cold chain hurdle is just the latest disparity of the pandemic weighted against the poor, who more often live and work in crowded conditions that allow the virus to spread, have little access to medical oxygen that is vital to COVID-19 treatment, and whose health systems lack labs, supplies or technicians to carry out large-scale testing.

Maintaining the cold chain for coronavirus vaccines won’t be easy even in the richest of countries, especially when it comes to those that require ultracold temperatures of around minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 F). Investment in infrastructure and cooling technology lags behind the high-speed leap that vaccine development has taken this year due to the virus.

With the pandemic now in its eighth month, logistics experts warn that vast parts of the world lack the refrigeration to administer an effective vaccination program. This includes most of Central Asia, much of India and southeast Asia, Latin America except for the largest countries, and all but a tiny corner of Africa.

… Currently, 42 coronavirus vaccine candidates are in clinical trials and another 151 are in pre-clinical evaluation, according to WHO. The ones most likely to end up in the Covax mix must be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (25-46 F).

A Pfizer candidate is among the ones in advanced testing requiring storage at ultracold temperatures. The company, which has designed a special carrying case for its vaccine, has expressed interest in Covax and signed contracts with the United States, Europe and Japan.

Medical freezers that go down to minus 70 degrees Celsius are rare even in U.S. and European hospitals. Many experts believe the West African countries that suffered through a 2014-16 Ebola outbreak may be the best positioned, because a vaccine against that virus also requires ultracold storage.

For more than two-thirds of the world, however, the advanced technology is nowhere on the horizon, according to a study by German logistics company DHL. Meanwhile, billions of people are in countries that don’t have the necessary infrastructure to maintain the cold chain for either existing vaccines or more conventional coronavirus candidates, the study said.

Sewage From Toilet in Chinese City Infected Six People with Coronavirus in First Known Case of Its Kind – Newsweek

Half a dozen people in China are thought to have caught the coronavirus from sewage, in what scientists believe is the first example of the virus spreading in this way.

According to a study published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases a bathroom pipe running from the home of a couple with the coronavirus had a hole in it. When it rained in the area, the hole caused the sewage to flood the streets, enabling the virus to infect nearby residents.

The authors said the findings highlight the importance of managing sewage correctly, particularly in densely populated areas where hygiene and sanitation measures are poor.

The last COVID-free counties in America – ABC

After a reprieve, a wave of evictions expected across U.S. – Reuters

On Sept. 1, U.S. health officials announced they would suspend evictions across the United States to help stem further spread of the novel coronavirus.

It has been a nightmare year for many of America’s renters. The local, state and federal eviction bans that gave them temporary protection in the spring began to lapse in early summer – ensnaring renters like Bean in the gap. September’s reprieve by the CDC, which protected many, but not all, renters will expire in January.

At that point, an estimated $32 billion in back rent will come due, with up to 8 million tenants facing eviction filings, according to a tracking tool developed by the global advisory firm Stout Risius and Ross, which works with the nonprofit National Coalition for a Civil Right to Counsel. The nonprofit group advocates for tenants in eviction court to secure lawyers.

In a typical year, 3.6 million people face eviction cases, according to the Princeton University Eviction Lab, a national housing research center.

Landlords, most of whom are mom-and-pop operators with mortgages to pay, say they, too, are under unprecedented financial strain, as many move into the eighth month of nonpayment. Many owners are “not generating sufficient revenue,” said Bob Pinnegar, CEO of the National Apartment Association. “This is not a high-profit-margin business.”

“Only 9 cents of every dollar return to the owner or investor as profit,” he added.

Unless Congress and the Trump administration move past their deadlock over the contours of a new COVID-19 relief package and include financial relief for tenants and landlords, January will bring a surge in displacement and homelessness “unlike anything we have ever seen,” said John Pollock, a Public Justice Center attorney and coordinator of the National Coalition for a Civil Right to Counsel.

[editor’s note: also read More than 6M households missed their rent or mortgage payment in September ]

Russia shuns tough restrictions even as infections soar – AP

The outbreak in Russia this month is breaking the records set in the spring, when a lockdown to slow the spread of the virus was put in place. But, as governments across Europe move to reimpose restrictions to counter rising cases, authorities in Russia are resisting shutting down businesses again. Some regions have closed nightclubs or limited the hours of bars and restaurants, but few measures have been implemented in Moscow, which is once again the epicenter of the surge.

On Friday, Russian authorities reported over 15,000 new infections, the highest daily spike so far in the pandemic. Moscow — with less than 10% of the population — accounts for up to 30% of new infections each day. The health minister says 90% of hospital beds for coronavirus patients have been filled. Three times this week, Russia’s daily death toll exceeded the spring record of 232.

Even these soaring virus tolls are likely undercounts; experts have cautioned that official figures around the world understate the true toll, but critics have taken particular issue with Russia’s death tolls, alleging authorities might be playing down the scale of the outbreak.

Right now, situation is “difficult” but “no restrictive measures for the economy are required,” Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova told President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.

The spring lockdown hurt the country’s already weakened economy and compounded Russians’ frustration with plummeting incomes and worsening living conditions, driving Putin’s approval rating to a historic low of 59% in April, according to the Levada Center, Russia’s top independent pollster. Analysts say his government doesn’t want to return to those darks days.

Is it the flu or COVID-19? How to tell the difference – USA Today

According to the CDC, the flu has killed an average of 37,000 Americans per year since 2010. CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield has said he’s especially worried about the impact that an early peak of the flu season would have on the coronavirus crisis. The flu season typically gets going in late October, gathers steam over the next two months, and crests in January and February.

[editor’s note: this post is worth a full read]

Dr. Anthony Fauci will see data from government-funded vaccine trials before the FDA does. – ProPublica

According to a draft charter spelling out how most of the advanced COVID-19 vaccine trials will be monitored, Fauci is the “designated senior representative” of the U.S. government who will be part of the first look at the results. That puts Fauci in the room with the companies — including Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca — in deciding whether the vaccines are ready to seek approval from the Food and Drug Administration.

… But there’s a big caveat. Fauci doesn’t have the same hands-on role for the vaccine that seems poised to show results soonest: Pfizer’s. That’s because Pfizer opted not to accept government funding and participate in the federal program to develop a coronavirus vaccine, known as Operation Warp Speed. (The government did make an almost $2 billion deal with Pfizer to preorder up to 600 million doses of the company’s vaccine, but it isn’t contributing money to the vaccine’s development like it is for other companies.)

“(We) offered opportunities for collaboration with Pfizer,” said a spokesperson for the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a branch of the NIH. “Pfizer chose to conduct their Phase 3 study without Operation Warp Speed or NIH support.”

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

China’s resurgent economy grew by 4.9 per cent in third quarter

Top Palestinian Official Receiving COVID-19 Treatment In Israeli Hospital

Anticipating coronavirus vaccines, UNICEF plans to stockpile more than half a billion syringes.

Wales implementing two-week national lockdown to slow virus spread

Russia Sets Record for New COVID Cases While Sweden Considers Lockdowns

Poland’s de facto leader goes into quarantine as the country fights a virus resurgence.

Europe’s museums are open, but the public isn’t coming.

Kenya’s health minister warns of a second wave as cases rise.

A vaccine that has not completed clinical trials finds strong demand in China.

More than 46,000 fans present as New Zealand beats Australia in Bledisloe Cup

China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter of 2020

The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

A woman with a tracheostomy got a coronavirus swab stuck in her lung in a case of testing gone wrong.

Stimulus Deal Before Election Hangs on Pelosi’s Tuesday Cutoff

23.6% of All US Dollars Were Created in the Last Year

Airlines are pushing for COVID-19 testing as an alternative to quarantines

Partisan local websites masquerading as traditional news outlets target Michigan voters

Fighting back against pandemic, AMC offering theater rentals for $99 for up to 20 people

At least 20 cases of COVID-19 have been tied to a Trump campaign rally and counter protests in Duluth last month, which the Minnesota Department of Health is calling an outbreak.

A spike in COVID-19 cases around Kansas City, Missouri, has hospitals “bursting at the seams,” with some facilities refusing non-emergency care and others to divert ambulances.

Why you haven’t seen Deborah Birx, MD, lately: she’s mostly on the road now.

Twitter took down an anti-mask tweet by Trump adviser Scott Atlas, MD, that it deemed misleading.

COVID-19 vaccine developer Vaxart is under federal investigation for exaggerating its Operation Warp Speed involvement.

Hispanic Americans accounted for an increasing proportion of deaths over the summer: up from 16.3% in May to 26.4% in August.

South Korea Eases Coronavirus Restrictions, Touts ‘Exceptional’ Success

US extends Mexico, Canada border closures [until Nov. 21]

Birx confronted Pence about Atlas [Atlas advocates policies that put him at odds with the mainstream of infectious diseases experts ]

Airport screenings top 1 million for first time since March

Rapid Test Results May Not Be Reported, Officials Say

Link Between Vitamin D and ICU Outcomes Unclear

Poll Workers In Texas County Could Be Fined if They Deny Unmasked Voters

In a bright spot for N.Y.C. schools, 10,676 tests yield just 18 positives.

CVS adding 15,000 employees ahead of flu season, coronavirus vaccine rollout

Migrant farmworkers under lockdown say restrictions severely limit their freedom.

COVID especially lethal to Asian Americans in SF

Baltimore hotel offers free lodging for people with COVID-19 who can’t quarantine at home

U.S. airport screenings top 1 million people for first time since March

Target gives employee bonuses as pandemic, holiday shopping collide

Trump vs Biden on Medicare: How each wants to modify the insurance program

Americans could face a long wait for more money if stimulus talks fail

South Carolina to host first-ever free, drive-thru state fair

About two-thirds of Chicagoans who got COVID-19 said they got it from someone they know, like a family member, friend or coworker — and three out of four of those close interactions took place at home, according to the city.

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

How Have Households Used Their Stimulus Payments And How Would They Spend The Next?

Jobs Hardest Hit By The Pandemic

COVID – Finding Balance Amid The Crisis

Colleges And The Thanksgiving COVID-19 Risk: Fauci’s Right – Holiday Plans May Have To Change

Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts

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