Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 9.6 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Over 8,000,000 have now contracted COVID-19 in the U.S.
- Who will get the vaccine first? Here’s where you might land in line
- Trump administration to labs: Finish COVID tests in two days or face payment cuts
- HHS lawyer warns Trump’s vaccine discount for seniors could be illegal: report
- Researchers Offer K-12 Guidance for Reopening Schools
- Eight passengers test positive for COVID-19 on Costa Cruises ship
- Coronavirus bolsters push towards healthier building design
- Covid-19 Strikes a Devastating Blow to the U.S. Arts Sector
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 17 October 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 17 October 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 55,066 | 8,050,000 | 348,135 | 39,400,000 | 15.8% | 20.4% |
Deaths** | 899 | 218,599 | 5,912 | 1,110,000 | 15.2% | 19.7% |
Mortality Rate | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.05* | 392.45* |
Source: EU CDC – The data insignificantly varies from the data produced by Johns Hopkins
* as of 13 Oct 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Researchers Offer K-12 Guidance for Reopening Schools – Medpage
In a report released Wednesday, scholars at Duke and Johns Hopkins universities outlined how K-12 schools can safely provide in-person classes.
“It makes clear that you need to consider the risk of schools [reopening], and it sets out a framework for evaluating that risk,” Christina Silcox, PhD, managing associate at the Duke Robert J. Margolis Center for Health Policy in Durham, North Carolina, told MedPage Today.
The report also looks at ways to incorporate screening and testing into the mitigation measures that have already been implemented to make reopening safer, Silcox said.
But she stressed that testing alone isn’t enough. It’s one part of a “Swiss cheese method of risk reduction,” she said.
“So you layer all these slices, all these different mitigation techniques” including hand washing, physical distancing, mask-wearing, and assessing facilities’ ventilation, “and that makes a more solid, more resilient, mitigation strategy overall,” she said.
Who will get the vaccine first? Here’s where you might land in line. – National Geographic
WHENEVER A NEW vaccine gets approved, health officials have to tackle the difficult question of who should be first in line to receive it. Typically health-care workers are first, and in previous outbreaks, such as the H1N1 swine flu in 2009, people whose health was most vulnerable got priority, too.
With the widely anticipated COVID-19 vaccine, there’s a new factor being considered: fairness.
On October 2, the National Academy of Medicine revealed its recommendations for COVID-19 vaccine distribution in an influential 237-page framework commissioned by the National Institutes of Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The report proposes distributing a vaccine in four phases as it becomes available. The first recipients are obvious picks: health-care workers, emergency responders, people with underlying conditions, and older adults living in group settings. This mirrors similar recommendations by the World Health Organization, and it is a foundational principle for the COVAX collaboration, a global effort to improve poorer countries’ access to a vaccine, which 171 nations have pledged to join. (The U.S. is not one of them, and a small group of scientists question the wisdom of putting some health-care workers at the top.)
But for the first time in history, the report also recommends that priority be given to people who score high on the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index, which identifies factors such as poverty, lack of access to transportation, or crowded housing that are linked to poor health outcomes. The committee of virologists, epidemiologists, economists, and other health researchers who wrote the report said the goal is to rectify the pandemic’s disproportionate burden on minorities and poor people and “work toward a new commitment to promoting health equity.”
Trump administration to labs: Finish COVID tests in two days or face payment cuts – USA Today
Labs that take longer than two days to complete coronavirus tests will see federal payments cut $25 per test under a new policy to begin Jan. 1.
The agency overseeing Medicare will pay labs $100 per coronavirus test completed on a high-volume machine within two days of collecting a specimen. Labs that take longer will get only $75 per test next year, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
Large labs routinely took one week or longer to process coronavirus tests this summer when cases spiked and Americans flocked to doctors’ offices, pop-up sites and chain pharmacies to get tested. Such a delay in reporting results rendered tests useless for tracing the contacts of infected individuals.
Dr. Nirav Shah, a senior scholar at Stanford University’s Clinical Excellence Research Center, said the payment change may compel labs to improve turnaround times.
“The incentives are now aligned to improve turnaround time, not simply maximize volume of tests,” said Shah, a former Commissioner of the New York State Department of Health. “For public health, any test that’s delayed more than one (or) two days is useless for contact tracing.”
HHS lawyer warns Trump’s vaccine discount for seniors could be illegal: report – The Hill
A top lawyer at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is warning that President Trump‘s plans to provide a discount on a coronavirus vaccine once it is ready could violate federal election law, according to a new report.
In an internal memo circulated this week, HHS general counsel Robert Charrow told aides that Trump’s plan could open the federal government and the Trump campaign to legal troubles, several sources told Politico.
Charrow also encouraged HHS officials to seek clearance from the Department of Justice to proceed with the plan, which is currently pending a review from the department’s public integrity division, the outlet reported.
Separately on Friday during a campaign rally in Florida, Trump announced a different plan that would expedite delivery of a vaccine to seniors.
“I am deeply aware that America’s 54 million seniors have borne the heaviest burden of the China virus,” Trump said. “Many older Americans have endured months of isolation, missing weddings, birthdays, graduations, church and family reunions. My message to America’s seniors today is one of optimism, confidence and hope. Your sacrifice has not been in vain. The light at the need of the tunnel is near. We are rounding the turn.”
Covid-19 Strikes a Devastating Blow to the U.S. Arts Sector – Statista
Along with tourism, there aren’t many parts of the economy which have been harder hit by the pandemic than the performing arts. Underscoring the devastating blow to the industry, data from a collaboration between TRG Arts and Purple Seven based on 80 venues in the United States shows year-on-year falls in revenue of over 90 percent in each of the last three months.
As this infographic illustrates, the first major hit landed in March as measures were introduced around the country to curtail the spread of the virus, equating to a 53.3 percent drop compared to March 2019.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Most Americans Put Stimulus Checks in Savings or Used Funds to Pay Debt – Newsweek
Data suggests that most Americans used their COVID-19 stimulus payments to pay down debt or put it into savings.
The New York Federal Reserve released the data on Tuesday with results of a survey conducted among 1,300 U.S. household during the month of June. Among respondents who received an economic impact payment, 89 percent of those surveyed with a median payment of $2,400 per household, 36 percent said they put the money into savings while 35 percent said they used it to pay down debt. Another 3.2 percent said they donated the money.
Only 18 percent of respondents said they spent the money on essential goods and services, while 8 percent said they used the money on non-essential spending. Age was an important factor in how money was spent, with essential spending rising and non-essential spending declining as respondents got older.
A second survey conducted during the month of August asked respondents how they might use a second stimulus payment in the amount of $1,500. A 45 percent plurality said they would save the money, while 30.9 percent said they would use it to pay debts. Of those who said they would spend the money, 13.7 percent said it would be used for essentials and 6.8 percent on non-essentials. Respondents who said they would donate the money numbered 3.7 percent.
The August survey also asked how those receiving unemployment benefits in June had used their funds. Almost half, 48.4 percent, said they used it to pay down debts. Money was spent on essentials 23.9 percent of the time, while another 23 percent put it into savings. Unemployment money was used for non-essentials only 4 percent of the time, with 0.7 percent using it for donations.
‘Super antigens’ tied to mysterious COVID-19 syndrome in children – National Geographic
A serious pediatric illness has been linked to a similar condition in adults. Coronavirus inhabiting the gut could be the cause—and it may explain long-lasting symptoms, too.
COUNT THE U.S. children who have caught COVID-19 since February, and you’d soon outnumber the population of Boston.
Fortunately, most of these 697,000 confirmed or probable cases have had comparatively mild illness—and somewhere between 16 and 45 percent of children may not manifest any symptoms at all. Yet some in this group—clinically defined as those under the age of 21—go on to develop a serious condition called multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, or MIS-C.
Thanks to months of urgent research, what began as a mysterious spectrum of symptoms has coalesced into a definable illness, with early signs that include fever, rashes, abdominal pain, diarrhea, and vomiting. Though MIS-C is rare—with 1,027 confirmed cases in the U.S. so far—it can develop into severe inflammation in a matter of hours, often requires intensive care, and is sometimes fatal. A recent report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed coronavirus fatalities in people under 21 and found that the majority were from MIS-C.
… Unlike other known coronaviruses, Bahar and Arditi found that SARS-CoV-2 has a unique feature in one part of its spikes. This spike fragment resembles the bacterial toxins known as super antigens—proteins that generate excessive reaction from T cells, a vital member of the immune system. Other research shows that severe COVID-19 results from immune systems overreacting to coronavirus, causing cascades of excess inflammation that permanently damage many parts of the body. Arditi says the spike fragment may explain why MIS-C has the appearance of what happens during blood infections like sepsis or bacterial toxic shock syndrome.
Bringing the outside into the office: Coronavirus bolsters push towards healthier building design – CNBC
- The coronavirus pandemic has bolstered corporate interest in redesigning work space to simulate nature, have better air filtration systems and use more sustainable materials.
- More companies are embracing biophilic design — the concept of bringing the health benefits of the outdoors inside.
- Buildings are also adapting to demand for more outdoor work space like terraces, and widespread expectations that employees will be more mobile after the pandemic is contained.
- “We’re blurring the line between work and home. Your office doesn’t have to be enclosed at your desk, said Asheshh Saheba, a managing partner at the architecture firm Steinberg Hart in San Francisco.
Eight passengers test positive for COVID-19 on Costa Cruises ship – USA Today
Eight passengers who sailed on Costa Cruises’ Costa Diadema have tested positive for COVID-19, Roger Frizzell, spokesperson for Carnival Corp., the parent company to Costa, confirmed to USA TODAY Friday. The cruise ship, which continued on its journey carrying all French passengers, will cut its voyage short as France has reinstated its state of health emergency in relation to COVID-19.
Costa Diadema, which was chartered by a French company and had all French passengers, departed from Genoa on Sept. 28 and ended its journey on Oct. 12. It then departed on a second 14-day voyage with many of the same passengers on board Oct. 12 and returned to Genoa on Friday 10 days earlier than intended.
On Oct. 10, seven passengers from the first sailing disembarked in Palermo after testing positive for COVID-19.
After the news of the positive tests came and the passengers disembarked, they were retested in facilities in Palermo. “(They) were isolated and immediately disembarked in dedicated onshore facilities in Palermo in agreement with Italian health authorities, per protocol,” Frizzell said.
A third test on shore was also positive for all seven, who were asymptomatic.
The first sailing continued on as planned after disembarking the affected passengers in Palermo and made excursions, including stops in Sardinia and Civitavecchia near Rome, before wrapping up its voyage and then departing for the second voyage Oct. 12.
… On an earnings call last week, Carnival Corp. touted that it has found a “way to go forward” with cruising in U.S. waters in 2020 thanks to Costa Cruises’ success. At the time, Costa Cruises had not seen a single case of COVID-19 on board its ships in the more than a month-long period that it had been sailing.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Italy Imposes Curfew and Shutters High Schools After Weeks of Spiking Cases
In Europe, 2 foreign ministers are infected, raising fears that they caught it at an E.U. meeting.
An infection at Pope Francis residence adds to concerns for his safety.
A Swiss canton explodes with virus cases after a yodeling event.
‘We are facing difficult months’: Merkel warns Germans in strong terms as cases tick upward.
Britain is trying out drones to deliver coronavirus tests and samples to hospitals.
Thailand confirms infections along its border with Myanmar.
WHO concerned about Europe’s coronavirus outbreak as ICU beds near capacity
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Kansas City, Mo., hospitals turn away ambulances due to COVID-19 patient surge: report
Doctors Rail Against Trump’s Mich., Wisc. Rallies Amid Surging COVID Cases
Georgia, on Cusp of COVID Surge, Grapples With Long Voting Lines, Delays
‘I Had COVID, Now Food Tastes Rotten and Wine Tastes Like Oil’
With virus cases low, Hawaii eases restrictions on tourists. [allows travelers to bypass the quarantine if they produce a negative coronavirus test taken no more than 72 hours before their departure from the mainland.]
Michigan reports 2,015 new COVID-19 cases, highest single-day count
Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming all reported their highest daily Covid-19 case count to date on Friday.
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Are People Overconfident About Avoiding COVID-19?
Risk Of Business Insolvency During Coronavirus Crisis
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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