Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 11.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 0.8 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- The effectiveness of remdesivir has been put into question
- Oxford University scientists develop ‘extremely rapid’ 5-minute COVID-19 test
- Top World Bank Economist Says Financial Crisis Could Emerge From Pandemic
- Record Surge In Business Formations As Economy Recovers From COVID
- COVID Heart Autopsies Point More to Clot Damage Than Myocarditis
- Millions of Americans slipped into poverty as federal aid dried up
- Spending dropped, savings dwindled for U.S. unemployed after enhanced benefits expired
- Sleepless Nights, Hair Loss and Cracked Teeth: Pandemic Stress Takes Its Toll
- CVS and Walgreens to administer vaccine to seniors
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 16 October 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 16 October 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 53,327 | 7,980,000 | 338,733 | 38,980,000 | 15.7% | 20.5% |
Deaths** | 828 | 217,700 | 5,861 | 1,100,000 | 14.1% | 19.8% |
Mortality Rate | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.94* | 388.51* |
Source: EU CDC – The data insignificantly varies from the data produced by Johns Hopkins
* as of 11 Oct 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
The Trump administration on Friday announced a deal with CVS Health and Walgreens to administer coronavirus vaccines to the elderly and staff in long-term care facilities.
The vaccine will be free of charge and available for residents in all long-term care settings, including skilled nursing facilities, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, residential care homes and adult family homes, the Department of Health and Human Services said in a press release.
CVS and Walgreens will schedule and coordinate on-site clinic dates directly with each facility, the HHS said. The companies anticipate that three total visits over two months are likely to be needed to administer both doses of vaccine to residents and staff, the agency said.
Top World Bank Economist Says Financial Crisis Could Emerge From Pandemic – Bloomberg
World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart said the coronavirus pandemic is turning into a major economic crisis and warned of the possibility of a financial crisis emerging.
“This did not start as a financial crisis but it is morphing into a major economic crisis, with very serious financial consequences,” Reinhart said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There’s a long road ahead.”
Reinhart, who took her new role in June, is best known for her work with then-Harvard colleague Kenneth Rogoff on the last financial crisis in their 2009 book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.” It made the pair the go-to resource on the history of government defaults, recessions, bank runs, currency selloffs, and inflationary spikes.
Asked whether central banks buying bonds to keep yields low is ultimately a zero-sum game when everyone’s doing it, Reinhart said, “This is a war. During wars governments finance their war expenditures however they can and right now there are dire needs.”
“The scenario we are in is not a sustainable one,” she added.
Reinhart spoke after the world’s richest nations agreed to renew a debt-relief initiative for the poorest through at least the first half of 2021, falling short of the World Bank’s call for a full-year extension.
Spending dropped, savings dwindled for U.S. unemployed after enhanced benefits expired: study – Reuters
Jobless Americans who received enhanced unemployment benefits during the pandemic were able to boost spending and pad up their savings for a time. But the majority of those savings were spent quickly after emergency benefits expired, a study released on Friday found, suggesting many of the unemployed may need more financial help soon.
People receiving unemployment benefits and direct cash payments as part of the CARES Act were able to approximately double their liquid savings between March and July of this year, according to an analysis by the JPMorgan Chase Institute.
Spending by unemployed consumers also increased by 22% after they started receiving enhanced jobless benefits, which increased state jobless benefits by $600 a week through July.
But those trends reversed quickly after the supplement expired at the end of July, the study showed. Consumers spent about two-thirds of the savings they had built up over four months in August alone. Unemployed people also cut their spending by 14% that month – a trend that could continue if their finances don’t improve, the researchers said. The report did not analyze trends in September.
“Eventually, without further government support or significant labor market improvements, jobless workers may exhaust their accumulated savings buffer, leaving them with a choice to further cut spending or fall behind on debt or rent payments,” the researchers wrote.
Oxford University scientists develop ‘extremely rapid’ 5-minute COVID-19 test – MarketWatch
Scientists at the University of Oxford have developed an “extremely rapid” COVID-19 test that can produce results in less than five minutes, the university said on Thursday.
The researchers hoped the test could eventually be used at airports, music venues, and businesses to quickly establish COVID-free spaces.
The university said it hoped to start product development in early 2021, with an approved device available within six months. It is currently working to set up a spinout company, seeking investment to accelerate the test into a fully integrated device.
Earlier this week, Siemens Healthineers SHL, 0.12% launched a rapid antigen test that can identify the virus within 15 minutes, with plans for it to be submitted for Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization.
The Oxford test is able to identify SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, with “high accuracy,” the researchers said in a preprint study that is yet to be peer reviewed. It can also differentiate the virus from other infections such as flu and seasonal human coronaviruses, the study added.
Record Surge In Business Formations As Economy Recovers From COVID – Bespoke
Yesterday the Census updated business formation stats for Q3, and as indicated by high-frequency data from the Atlanta Fed, business formation exploded in Q3. As shown in the first chart below, total business applications rocketed upwards by 1.57 million, a record increase. Stripping out businesses that are unlikely to result in hiring, the numbers are much smaller in absolute terms but still rose 79% to a record pace. Finally, applications for businesses with planned wages surged 70% from a record low in Q2, to the highest levels since 2008.
In all three instances, the recent behavior is a complete reversal of the post-Financial Crisis period, when the prolonged recession led to a huge decline in business starts. That’s a good sign for the breadth of the economic rebound, as business formation tends to lead to higher productivity thanks to more innovation and investment. Below we show changes in total business applications by state; Michigan, Illinois, and Georgia are the biggest winners, with applications more than doubling.
Fulton County [Georgia] Elections Warehouse Hit by COVID Outbreak – US News
NEARLY A quarter of the workers in a warehouse where election supplies are kept and voting equipment is readied for Georgia‘s most populous county have tested positive for COVID-19, officials said Thursday.
But the positive tests for 13 of the 60 workers at the Fulton County election preparation center shouldn’t delay election operations, county elections director Rick Barron told reporters during a videoconference.
He said the outbreak was discovered after an employee left work Saturday feeling sick and got a positive test result on Tuesday. After a second employee also tested positive, all of the warehouse staff was tested and an additional 11 cases were discovered. Barron said it’s his understanding that only one employee is experiencing symptoms of the disease.
Additional workers are being recruited to continue the work of those who are affected, and daily rapid testing will be implemented for all employees as they report to work, Barron said. County officials also were exploring other spaces to move operations out of the warehouse to allow workers to do their jobs with increased social distancing, he said.
The affected workers were responsible for doing preelection testing on the voting equipment and for packing supply boxes and collecting absentee ballots from drop boxes. None of the affected workers have direct contact with voters, Barron said.
The effectiveness of remdesivir has been put into question – WHO
In just six months, the world’s largest randomized control trial on COVID-19 therapeutics has generated conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of repurposed drugs for the treatment of COVID-19.
Interim results from the Solidarity Therapeutics Trial, coordinated by the World Health Organization, indicate that remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on 28-day mortality or the in-hospital course of COVID-19 among hospitalized patients.
The study, which spans more than 30 countries, looked at the effects of these treatments on overall mortality, initiation of ventilation, and duration of hospital stay in hospitalized patients. Other uses of the drugs, for example in treatment of patients in the community or for prevention, would have to be examined using different trials.
The progress achieved by the Solidarity Therapeutics Trial shows that large international trials are possible, even during a pandemic, and offer the promise of quickly and reliably answering critical public health questions concerning therapeutics.
The results of the trial are under review for publication in a medical journal and have been uploaded as preprint at medRxiv available at this link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1
[editor’s note: the key word here is “mortality” – this study does not say that it does not reduce or control symptoms, and according to the New York Times “several experts noted that some of the drugs in the trial may benefit people with Covid-19 earlier in the course of their illness.”]
COVID Heart Autopsies Point More to Clot Damage Than Myocarditis – MedPage
A careful look at the heart after death from COVID-19 suggested cardiac damage was common, but more from clotting than inflammation, researchers reported.
Autopsies on 40 people who died of COVID-19 showed that 14 had cardiac injury as indicated by myocardial necrosis: an acute myocardial infarction of at least 1 cm2 in three (7.5%) and smaller focal myocyte necrosis in 11 (27.5%).
Microthrombi were frequent, whereas none of those patients had myocarditis, except sarcoid involvement in one case, reported Giulio Guagliumi, MD, of Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII in Bergamo, Italy, and colleagues at the virtual TCT Connect meeting.
Epicardial coronary artery thrombosis was found in two of the myocardial necrosis patients (14.2%) and microthrombi in nine (64.3%).
“We did not expect this,” said study co-author Renu Virmani, MD, of CVPath Institute in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The first case that prompted this investigation was one that presented with more intramyocardial capillary thrombi than she had ever seen.
“That alerted us so we made a concerted effort to look by multiple sections. We took as much as 10 sections from the myocardium, from every wall, from two levels so that we would not miss these things,” she said at the session. “That’s what led us to discover that there’s more than just troponin I rise but really more to do with the fact that there is true necrosis and not so much myocarditis.”
City In China Tests 10 Million People After 13 COVID-19 Cases Are Found – NPR
The Chinese port city of Qingdao is under soft lockdown after a cluster of 13 COVID-19 cases was discovered last weekend.
In the past five days, health authorities say they conducted more than 10 million coronavirus tests of all Qingdao residents, all of which came back negative. Still, residents have been asked to remain at home, flights to Beijing have been canceled and travelers from Qingdao to other parts of China must quarantine.
All 13 cases were traced back to a Qingdao hospital, municipal authorities said Friday. The 13 include seven patients, three health workers, a dock worker and two people in close contact with the others. Two asymptomatic coronavirus carriers were also staying at the same hospital.
According to Qingdao’s deputy mayor, prior to contracting COVID-19 many of the 13 patients also suffered from tuberculosis, making them vulnerable to coronavirus infection.
On Sept. 24, Qingdao reported that two dock workers tested positive for the coronavirus during a routine health check, but neither showed any symptoms. (China tallies asymptomatic carriers separately from confirmed COVID-19 patients until an asymptomatic individual develops fever or flu-like symptoms.)
Sleepless Nights, Hair Loss and Cracked Teeth: Pandemic Stress Takes Its Toll – Medscape
Throughout the pandemic, people who never had the coronavirus have been reporting a host of seemingly unrelated symptoms: excruciating headaches, episodes of hair loss, upset stomach for weeks on end, sudden outbreaks of shingles and flare-ups of autoimmune disorders. The disparate symptoms, often in otherwise healthy individuals, have puzzled doctors and patients alike, sometimes resulting in a series of visits to specialists with few answers. But it turns out there’s a common thread among many of these conditions, one that has been months in the making: chronic stress.
Although people often underestimate the influence of the mind on the body, a growing catalog of research shows that high levels of stress over an extended time can drastically alter physical function and affect nearly every organ system.
Now, at least eight months into the pandemic, alongside a divisive election cycle and racial unrest, those effects are showing up in a variety of symptoms.
“The mental health component of COVID is starting to come like a tsunami,” said Dr. Jennifer Love, a California-based psychiatrist and co-author of an upcoming book on how to heal from chronic stress.
COVID Death Rates in Europe Are Overtaking U.S. as Multiple Nations Gripped by Second Wave – Newsweek
[editors note: U.S. = 723.6]
- Belgium: 886.83
- Spain: 714.64
- Italy: 600.2
- Sweden: 584.89
- France: 502.19
- Netherlands: 388.83
- Ireland: 371.62
- Romania: 291.15
- Luxembourg: 212.47
- Portugal: 207.62
- Bulgaria: 133.7
- Denmark: 116.54
- Germany: 115.89
- Czech Republic: 109.44
- Hungary: 108.9
- Malta: 99.65
- Austria: 98.6 deaths
- Poland: 85
- Croatia: 81.36
- Slovenia: 71.19
- Finland: 63.17
- Estonia: 51.26
- Greece: 45
- Lithuania: 40.04
- Latvia: 21.74
- Cyprus: 20.71
- Slovakia: 12.09
Millions of Americans slipped into poverty as federal aid dried up. – New York Times
After an ambitious expansion of the safety net in the spring saved millions of people in the United States from poverty, the aid is now largely exhausted and poverty has returned to levels higher than before the coronavirus crisis, two new studies have found.
The number of poor people has grown by eight million since May, according to researchers at Columbia University, after falling by four million at the pandemic’s start as a result of a $2 trillion emergency package known as the Cares Act.
Using a different definition of poverty, researchers from the University of Chicago and Notre Dame found that poverty has grown by six million people in the past three months, with circumstances worsening most for Black people and children.
“These numbers are very concerning,” said Bruce D. Meyer, an economist at the University of Chicago and an author of the study. “They tell us people are having a lot more trouble paying their bills, paying their rent, putting food on the table.”
Significantly, the studies differ on the most recent month: While the Columbia model shows an improvement in September, the Chicago and Notre Dame analysts found poverty continued to grow.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the Canada-U.S. border will stay closed until America gets control its outbreak.
Israel To Relax Its Second Nationwide Coronavirus Lockdown On Sunday
Several European countries report daily record highs in coronavirus cases
France sets one-day record with more than 30,000 new COVID-19 cases
The Czech Republic reported a record high of new daily cases on Friday of 9,721, according to the country’s health ministry.
In Germany, 6,638 new cases were reported in the past 24 hours, surpassing a previous record of 6,294 new cases recorded on March 28,
Spain Adds 13,300 COVID Infections, Catalonia to Shut Bars, Eateries
More Swiss Guards test positive, raising concerns for Pope’s health.
Merkel: EU summit on China called off as virus resurges
Russia’s new coronavirus cases surge to record high of 15,150
Covid: One-way ‘travel bubble’ opens between Australia and NZ
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report found one player infected 14 others at a Florida recreational indoor hockey game.
A new study conducted for the Department of Defense found that airplanes are unlikely to spread COVID-19, thanks to high air exchange rates, HEPA-filtered recirculation and downward ventilation found on modern jets.
Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Won’t Be Ready By Election Day
A man from Seattle is officially the third U.S. case of catching COVID-19 twice — first testing positive in early March and then again five months later with a new infection with a slightly different genetic variant.
Patient Zero in an 11-relative outbreak of COVID-19 was a 13-year-old girl — whose initial test came back negative.
NFL Hall of Famer Fred Dean, who played for the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers, passed away after battling COVID-19 at the age of 68.
Shoppers Came Back To Department Stores In September, Lifting Retail Sales
Single-Day COVID-19 Deaths In Illinois At Highest Level In Months
Wells Fargo Fires More Than 100 Employees Accused Of Coronavirus Relief Fraud
CDC: Blacks, Hispanics dying of COVID-19 at disproportionately high rates
Navy finds new COVID cases aboard previously virus-stricken USS Theodore Roosevelt
A key model foresees approximately 171,000 more coronavirus related deaths by February 2021, a number that would represent a spike of 78 percent.
Health experts say ‘herd immunity’ strategy would kill thousands
In US Midwest States, New COVID-19 Infections Rise to Record Highs
North Dakota on Course to Break COVID Death Toll Record in October
Sewage From Toilet Caused COVID Outbreak in First Case of Its Kind
Nick Saban Could Coach Alabama Four Days After Testing Positive for COVID
Prisoners cannot be denied virus relief payments, a judge rules.
State health officials across the U.S. are facing a Friday deadline to submit plans to the federal government on how they will inoculate hundreds of millions of Americans against Covid-19 once a vaccine is approved.
Colts say COVID-19 tests were false positives, Sunday’s game is still on
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
09 October 2020 ECRI’s WLI Marginally Improved
Preliminary October 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves
August 2020 Business Inventories Marginally Grow
September 2020 Headline Industrial Production Declines And Remains In Contraction
Headline Retail Sales Again Improves in September 2020 – Almost Like The Pandemic Never Occurred
Rail Week Ending 10 October 2020 – Continuing Improvement
Coronavirus: Superspreading Events Could Help Make COVID-19 Endemic
Coronavirus Vaccine: What We Know So Far – A Comprehensive Guide By Academic Experts
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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