Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 1.1 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 2.9 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Fifty Years of Economic History Says Expect L, Not V, for Recovery
- America’s youngest consumers are hunkering down
- High Level of SARS-CoV-2 Found in Patient Toilets, Staff, and Public Areas in Hospitals
- SARS-CoV-2 Matter Found in Autopsied Brain Tissue
- Regeneron Seeks FDA Emergency Clearance for Covid-19 Therapy
- Digital health passport CommonPass begins testing to help travel and trade resume
- Donald Trump returns to Oval Office, breaking COVID-19 quarantine, and talks up experimental drug
- 34 people connected to White House, more than previously known, infected by coronavirus
- Abbott says new data shows rapid COVID-19 test used at White House is highly accurate
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school (especially at college/university level) and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 08 October 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 08 October 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 45,250 | 7,550,000 | 306,768 | 36,190,000 | 14.8% | 20.9% |
| Deaths** | 892 | 211,801 | 5,679 | 1,050,000 | 15.7% | 20.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.55* | 359.94* | ||||
* as of 03 Oct 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Pence’s Red Eye Raises COVID Concerns – Medscape
Vice President Mike Pence’s left eye appeared red during Wednesday night’s vice presidential debate, leading internet users to guess that Pence has pinkeye ― a known symptom of COVID-19.
During the debate with Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris, Pence’s eye definitely appeared red. While the campaign and his office have not commented on his condition, it didn’t stop others from suggesting the vice president had pinkeye, officially known as conjunctivitis.
Together with a pesky fly that landed on Pence’s head, it made for provocative chatter.
“He had a bloody eye and a fly on his head,” Anderson Cooper said on CNN.
Pinkeye has long been known as a possible symptom of the coronavirus. The possibility that Pence has pinkeye is then more significant given the coronavirus outbreak now hitting the White House. President Donald Trump and many others have tested positive for the virus, and while Pence says he has thus far tested negative, experts said this week that the vice president should be in quarantine and not taking part in campaign events or Wednesday’s debate.
Nearly a quarter of pediatric COVID patients had pinkeye from Jan. 26 through March 18, according to a study published in JAMA Ophthalmology on Aug. 26. A second study published in the same journal the next day detailed two adults with COVID and conjunctivitis. One was a 29-year-old male and the other a 51-year-old woman.
FDA’s Marks: Stricter Standards for COVID-19 Vax Were by Design – MedPage
The FDA’s stricter standards for a COVID-19 vaccine are meant to reassure the public about the safety and efficacy of a vaccine, and end the politicization of vaccine standards, the FDA’s top official for vaccines said Wednesday.
Data from phase III studies with a median follow-up duration of at least 2 months, and at least five severe COVID-19 cases in the placebo group, were standards proposed by the FDA for weeks. These standards were released in briefing documents the FDA made available to the public Tuesday.
Peter Marks, MD, PhD, director of the FDA Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, emphasized the importance of tracking safety of the vaccine during an American Medical Association webinar on Wednesday.
“We asked for a median of 2 months of safety follow-up after the final vaccination of the population enrolled in the trial,” he said, explaining that when looking at adverse events, such as Guillain-Barre syndrome and transverse myelitis, they tend to occur within a median of 2 months or before.
Fifty Years of Economic History Says Expect L, Not V, for Recovery – Forbes
The idea of a V-shaped recovery, where an economy returns to its pre-crisis path following a recession, is embedded in central bank models and entrenched in investors’ thinking. But a Bloomberg Economics analysis of 36 recessions since 1965 across the Group-of-Seven countries suggests an L-shaped recovery is more likely than a V. With the world facing a second wave of Covid infections this winter, it’s not hard to imagine how the pandemic could inflict significantly more long-term damage than forecasters envisage.
U.S. reports uptick in daily coronavirus cases as outbreaks surge in Great Plains – CNBC
- Coronavirus outbreaks that once swept through the East Coast and America’s Sun Belt states are now surging in the nation’s Great Plains.
- North Dakota and South Dakota are reporting the highest number of new Covid-19 cases per capita than any other state across the nation.
- Wisconsin, which has reported the third-highest per capita rate, will activate a surge hospital as the coronavirus takes a “dire” turn and more people become seriously ill.
America’s youngest consumers are hunkering down – Yahoo
But the country’s youngest consumers are hunkering down during the pandemic.
And their outlays have never been so low.
Analysts at Piper Sandler on Tuesday released their latest semi-annual survey of U.S. teens, which found that teen spending fell to a record low during the fall. As of the firm’s fall survey, annual teen spending averaged just $2,150, down 5% from the spring, 9% from last year, and eclipses the previous survey low recorded in the fall of 2011.
Piper’s survey was conducted between August 19 and September 22 covering 9,800 responses from teens in 48 states with an average age of 15.8.
Regeneron Seeks FDA Emergency Clearance for Covid-19 Therapy – Bloomberg
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. said it has asked federal regulators to authorize its antibody treatment for Covid-19 for emergency use.
President Donald Trump received the antibody cocktail last Friday under a compassionate use program after becoming sick with the coronavirus. Trump hailed Regeneron’s treatment in a video posted on Twitter Wednesday, saying he would authorize its emergency use and make it available to Americans for free.
The experimental therapy is one of several monoclonal antibody treatments in testing that may help treat patients with Covid-19. Late last month, Regeneron reported preliminary results from a trial showing that the cocktail could reduce virus levels in coronavirus patients outside of the hospital.
Donald Trump returns to Oval Office, breaking COVID-19 quarantine, and talks up experimental drug – USA Today
President Donald Trump, confined to the White House residence since returning home from the hospital Monday where he was being treated for COVID-19, spent Wednesday afternoon in the Oval Office and taped a video near it, even as the West Wing has become a hot zone for the virus.
“I’m standing in front of the Oval Office at the White House, which is always an exciting place to be,” Trump said in the video he tweeted out in the late afternoon.
Trump’s return to the Oval Office prompted a flurry of precautions by his staff in an office building where the president and at least a dozen employees have tested positive for COVID-19 in the past week.
Doctors had wanted Trump to stay in the White House residence and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines say patients are supposed to quarantine for at least 10 days after the onset of symptoms – in Trump’s case, last Thursday.
High Level of SARS-CoV-2 Found in Patient Toilets, Staff, and Public Areas in Hospitals – Medscape
A systematic review of evidence presented at the 2020 ESCMID Conference on Coronavirus Disease (ECCVID) showed that air around patients with COVID-19, as well as patient toilets, and staff and public areas in surveyed hospitals all showed significant levels of contamination with SARS-CoV-2.
Controversy remains worldwide regarding the transmission mode of SARS-CoV-2 virus in hospital settings. In this study, the authors reviewed the current evidence on air contamination with SARS-CoV-2 in hospital settings, viral load and particle size, and factors associated with contamination.
… The median SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were found to be 10 times higher in patient toilets than in the patients’ rooms.
The authors said “the high viral loads found in toilet/bathrooms, staff and public hallways means these areas require strong compliance with cleaning measures and personal protective equipment”.
34 people connected to White House, more than previously known, infected by coronavirus – ABC
The coronavirus outbreak has infected “34 White House staffers and other contacts” in recent days, according to an internal government memo, an indication that the disease has spread among more people than previously known in the seat of American government.
Dated Wednesday and obtained by ABC News, the memo was distributed among senior leadership at FEMA, a branch of the Department of Homeland Security and the agency responsible for managing the continuing national response to the public health disaster.
… The new figures underscore both the growing crisis in the White House and the lengths to which government officials have gone to block information about the outbreak’s spread. ABC News had previously reported that a total of 24 White House aides and their contacts had contracted the virus. It was not clear in the FEMA memo with the larger number what “other contacts” referred to.
SARS-CoV-2 Matter Found in Autopsied Brain Tissue – MedPage
SARS-CoV-2 — viral RNA, viral protein, or both — was detected in brain tissue of more than 50% of patients who died with COVID-19, a post-mortem case series in Germany showed.
However, the presence of SARS-CoV-2 was not associated with the severity of pathological changes in the brain, reported Markus Glatzel, MD, of University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, and co-authors in Lancet Neurology.
“In this case series, we show that the virus gains access to the brainstem, and we were able to pinpoint the presence of viral proteins to structures such as cranial nerves in some patients,” Glatzel said.
“We did not see more severe neuropathological changes in patients with high viral loads when compared to those with no presence of virus, yet the immune reaction to the virus in the brain — which we start to define in this study — is there,” Glatzel told MedPage Today. “This makes us think that the neuroimmune reaction may be a key factor explaining some of the neurological symptoms seen in COVID-19 patients.”
This is the most comprehensive report of neuropathological findings in patients who died from COVID-19, the researchers noted.
Digital health passport CommonPass begins testing to help travel and trade resume – Mobi Health News
A new digital health pass for travelers, CommonPass, will begin testing internationally today, the Commons Project Foundation and the World Economic Forum announced.
The purpose of CommonPass is to allow travelers to document their COVID-19 status electronically and present it when they board a plane or cross a border, giving both the traveler and the country assurance that safe traveling is taking place.
CommonPass was developed by the Commons Project Foundation, a nonprofit public trust that’s building global digital services and platforms, and the World Economic Forum, an international organization for public-private cooperation.
To use it, travelers take a COVID-19 test at a verified lab and share their results with CommonPass. From there, they complete any additional screening measures set up by the destination country.
Once their health information has been confirmed to be in compliance with the country’s entry requirements, CommonPass generates a QR code that can be viewed on mobile phones or printed. Airline staff, border officials and any other health personnel can then scan the code to ensure all safety measures were taken.
The CommonPass platform is adaptable. It allows governments to update their entry requirements as the pandemic progresses. It also promotes user privacy by complying with privacy policies like the general data protection regulation (GDPR).
Two of the trials that are underway partner with Cathay Pacific Airways and United Airlines. They attempt to mimic the full traveler experience of taking a COVID-19 test prior to departure, uploading the results, and following entry requirements at their departure and destination airports.
Lilly Boasts Success for COVID-19 Antibody Combo – MedPage
Phase II data on combination therapy with two investigational antibodies for COVID-19, LY-CoV555 and LY-CoV016, showed significant decreases in viral load by day 11 versus placebo, manufacturer Eli Lilly said in a statement on Wednesday.
Yet the company said it has applied for emergency use authorization (EUA) for only one of the antibodies, for which the reported efficacy data were equivocal.
Interim analysis of data from the BLAZE-1 trial found a dose of 2,800 mg of LY-CoV555 and 2,800 mg of LY-CoV016, in ambulatory or recently diagnosed patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms, reduced viral load by day 11 by 5.6-fold relative to placebo (P=0.011).
Abbott says new data shows rapid COVID-19 test used at White House is highly accurate – Reuters
Abbott Laboratories on Wednesday released early data from a study on the accuracy of its ID NOW COVID-19 test, which is used in the White House, that could help alleviate concerns the diagnostic frequently fails to detect the virus.
Interim data from Abbott’s 1,003-participant study shows that its test, which can deliver results in under 15 minutes, correctly identified positive COVID-19 cases 95% of the time when used within seven days of symptom onset.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization for the test in March, but said in May that early data suggested it could sometimes fail to detect the virus in sick patients. Abbott said it would conduct multiple studies of the test in a variety of healthcare settings.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
A wave of death in Sweden’s nursing homes has exposed holes in a famously generous safety net.
Brazil surpasses 5 million virus cases, even as the pace of confirmed infections slows.
Germany has issued a stark warning over the spread of the coronavirus, saying a surge in cases could be imminent.
Czech Republic tops record infection surge in Eastern Europe
UK at ‘perilous moment’ after 17,540 new COVID cases reported
Italy records its most new coronavirus cases since since April 11
Canadians encouraged to stay home as second wave of Covid-19 worsens
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Trump says he won’t do next presidential debate after it goes virtual, Biden still wants town hall
Protesters gathered for a second night in New York on Wednesday in defiance of new shutdown orders in some of the city’s neighborhoods
Disneyland and other large theme parks in the Golden State won’t be reopening anytime soon
Airbnb hosts now must follow mandatory cleaning protocol — or risk getting kicked off the platform
In Rare Step, Esteemed Medical Journal Urges Americans To Vote Trump Out Of Office
‘SNL’ Nixes Morgan Wallen Appearance After Singer Violates COVID-19 Safety Protocols
Airlines, Travel Groups Warn Of More Job Cuts As COVID-19 Aid Talks Stall
AstraZeneca’s no-profit pledge for vaccine has expiration date: report
Trump says talks on COVID-19 aid are now ‘working out’
No ‘Standalone’ Pandemic Relief, Pelosi Says Amid Trump’s Mixed Messaging
Harris, Pence spar over COVID-19 vaccine
White House security official reported to be gravely ill with COVID-19
Over 8,600 Illinois Children Infected With COVID Since School Began
Coronavirus Traces Found on Bleached Surface After 8 Days
Trump COVID Update, President Shows ‘Detectable Levels’ of Antibodies
Rudy Giuliani Takes Hydroxychloroquine After Two Negative COVID Tests
Sam’s Club sells smaller dinners as Americans downsize holiday plans
Dr. Anthony Fauci said he’s “not comfortable” with the level of new U.S. Covid-19 cases as the nation enters its cooler seasons.
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said the U.S. government could have enough Covid-19 vaccine doses for every American as early as March.
McDonald’s U.S. customers are returning to the fast-food chain, lifting the country’s same-store sales growth to nearly 5% in its latest quarter.
The pandemic made 107,000 oil and gas jobs disappear. Most aren’t coming back anytime soon
Singapore introduces ‘cruises to nowhere’ for travel-starved locals
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
September 2020 Monthly Budget Review: The Deficit Is The Largest Since 1945
03 October 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Declining Very Slowly
Consumers Expect Modest Increase In Spending Growth And Continued Government Support
Coronavirus: Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease? The Most Divisive Question Of 2020
A CBO Roadmap To Universal Healthcare
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus.htm’); ?>
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
